20 Fantasy Thoughts: Examining the fallout from the J.T. Miller trade
The Vancouver Canucks finally pulled the trigger on a J.T. Miller trade which will have fantasy implications as Michael Amato writes in his 20 Fantasy Thoughts.
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The J.T. Miller saga is finally over.
After being on the trade block for what seemed like forever, the Vancouver Canucks shipped Miller to the New York Rangers for Filip Chytil, Victor Mancini and a first-round pick. It was an underwhelming return, but that’s to be expected when you have no leverage. It was clear the situation in Vancouver was unsalvageable and Canucks management made it clear Miller was going to be on the move.
This should help Miller’s fantasy value, with the main reason being for a simple change of scenery. Miller was only scoring at a 72-point pace in Vancouver this season, well below the standard he set over the past few seasons. There was clearly a lack of chemistry with the team this year and had a deal not been swung, I don’t think Miller would’ve regained his form. He’ll have a chance to do that now in New York, as the Rangers try to make a push for the playoffs.
If his first game is any indication, Miller should be much more productive in New York. He looked re-energized against the Boston Bruins on Saturday afternoon, scoring two goals and adding six shots on net. It didn’t hurt that the Rangers started him with Mika Zibanejad and Artemi Panarin. That could be about both getting Miller off on the right foot and helping to get Zibanejad going as well.
One player to have mild concerns about is Vincent Trocheck. If that’s the top line the Rangers go with going forward, it leaves Trocheck without Panarin, and Chris Kreider is currently on the third line. I don’t love Trocheck with just Alexis Lafreniere and someone like Reilly Smith. Line combinations can always change, but right now, it’s not ideal for Trocheck.
Someone else who this helps is Chytil. He’s probably Vancouver’s second-line centre now, and that should be a big step up in minutes from what he was getting with the Rangers. Chytil barely averaged 14 minutes a game this season in New York, so expect that ice time to go up two or three minutes a night with the Canucks. The 25-year-old does have a 22-goal season to his credit, and he may be able to expand on that with increased opportunities and possibly some more power play time. However, the big question mark when it comes to Chytil is health. He’s had a history of head injuries and has missed substantial time because of it.
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1. The Canucks didn’t hold onto that newly acquired first-round pick for long, using as part of a package to acquire Marcus Pettersson from the Pittsburgh Penguins. While I think it’s a good pickup for Vancouver, I don’t see Pettersson being fantasy relevant. He’s behind Quinn Hughes and Filip Hronek for power play times, and Pettersson is one of those better real-life players than fantasy.
2. David Pastrnak really picked it up in January, scoring 11 times and elevating his linemates. That includes Morgan Geekie, who has nine points in his past 10 games. Geekie also has triple position eligibility and is good for faceoff wins and hits, too. He brings a lot of versatility to a fantasy lineup, and if he keeps producing offence like this, Geekie will be a must roster.
3. On the other hand, Jeremy Swayman continues to struggle. He boasts a sub .900 save percentage on the season and while he’s had some good outings, the bad starts outweigh the good ones. Someone even asked me if he was droppable in a one-year league. The challenge at this time of year is that the waiver wire is very thin when it comes to goalies, and Swayman will still give you volume. I’d try shopping him and see if you can get anything in return, even if it’s a lesser player but may fill a positional need on your squad.
4. I’m not overly worried about Joey Daccord even though the Seattle Kraken have fallen out of the playoff race. Daccord still managed a .928 save percentage in January and a 6-3-0 record. The biggest challenge for goalies on bad teams is getting wins, and Daccord is still picking those up fairly regularly. He’s a hold down the stretch.
5. Vince Dunn returned from injury about two months ago and it was really starting to have an impact on Brandon Montour. Without Dunn in the lineup, Montour got off to a great start, scoring nine points in his first 10 games of the season. Then he went ice cold. Montour had no points in nine games, just two assists in 17 and he hadn’t scored a goal since December 14. Things have changed this week, though. Montour suddenly has back-to-back multi-point games and looks like he’s on the upswing again. Montour remains on the second power-play unit, but he’s still really valuable, albeit maybe a bit streaky at times.
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6. St. Louis and the New York Islanders swung a trade this week as the Blues shipped defenseman Scott Perunovich to Long Island. Perunovich never quite found his footing with the Blues, but he has some offensive talent and produced some good offensive numbers in college and the AHL. With all the injuries the Isles are dealing with on the blue line, maybe Perunovich gets more of a look there and he had points in his first two games on Long Island. The Isles also added Tony DeAngelo and Adam Boqvist recently, so Perunovich still has plenty of competition to deal with.
7. Cam Fowler is starting to hit a wall. He’s managed only one point in six games and has been bumped off the top power-play unit in favour of Justin Faulk, as the Blues have struggled to score of late. Fowler doesn’t need to be a season-long hold if there are better options available.
8. Tough news for the Minnesota Wild and those rostering Kirill Kaprizov. He’s going to miss at least a month with an ailment, adding to the injury woes the Wild have been dealing with all year. I’ve seen some people trying to shop Kaprizov in one-year leagues due to this latest setback, but it did come at a good time. Two of the weeks Kaprizov is going to miss will be during the Four Nations Face-Off, which isn’t relevant to fantasy. Fingers crossed that he only misses a couple of fantasy matchups.
9. Things are suddenly not going as well for Mackenzie Blackwood. He did pick up a shutout Friday, but that was his first quality start in six outings and only his second win over that stretch. The Colorado Avalanche do a good job of limiting shots overall, but they are 21st in the NHL when it comes to quality chances allowed. It was inevitable that Blackwood would eventually hit a rough patch.
One thing that concerns me is how the loss of Mikko Rantanen will impact Blackwood. You would assume with Rantanen gone the Avs will be playing in their end a little more and harder-pressed to pick up wins. Both things aren’t ideal if you’re rostering Blackwood. I still think Blackwood is a good option, you just can’t expect him to maintain the pace he set when he first joined Colorado.
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10. Kudos to you if you bought stock in Pavel Dorofeyev. He’s on pace for 35 goals now with great shot volume. If Dorofeyev is still available in your league, don’t hesitate to grab him.
11. Vegas has done it again, bringing in Brandon Saad on a cheap deal for the remainder of the season. Saad struggled in St. Louis this year, but the Golden Knights have a much more potent lineup to help prop him up. He did score 26 goals last season, so the scoring touch is still there if Vegas can find the right deployment for Saad. The ideal spot would be next to Jack Eichel and Mark Stone if Vegas decides to go that route.
12. Trades, trades and more trades. Mikael Granlund heads to Dallas where I don’t think his fantasy value increases. Granlund was averaging nearly 21 minutes a night in San Jose and had 45 points in 52 games, but the Stars are much deeper than the Sharks. He could find himself on the third line and playing a bit less because Dallas is more balanced.
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13. We’ve seen Thomas Harley step up before with Miro Heiskanen injured and he’s going to get another opportunity. It sounds like Heiskanen isn’t going to be back anytime soon, so Harley should get top power play duties for the foreseeable future here. The Stars blue liner has been a little cold of late, but he played more than 27 minutes the other night when Heiskanen went down. If that continues the points should soon follow.
14. Dawson Mercer also has a decent opportunity in front of him with Nico Hischier sidelined. He’s assumed the second line centre role and tallied a goal the other night in the first game of his promotion. Mercer has struggled with consistency in his young career, so it’s by no means a guarantee that he starts producing consistently. Add him to your watch list for now.
15. The return of Drew Doughty has really hurt the value of Brandt Clarke. The Los Angeles Kings made Clarke a healthy scratch in Doughty’s first two games back. Clarke got back in Saturday night but even when he’s in the lineup, it will likely be in a diminished role now that Doughty has returned and power play time will be scarce. Clarke will be hard to hold in one-year leagues going forward.
16. The Kings are also having a hard time scoring after suffering shutout losses in back-to-back games. Not only that, they managed to score more than two goals just twice in all of January. Los Angeles isn’t the team to look at for streamers right now.
17. Another fairly substantial trade this week saw the Calgary Flames acquire Morgan Frost and Joel Farabee from the Philadelphia Flyers in exchange for Andrei Kuzmenko and Jakob Pelletier. I like this a lot from Calgary’s perspective as far as making the playoffs go, but I’m not sure Frost or Farabee will see a real boost. Frost actually had a decent January and was pretty productive playing with Owen Tippett and Travis Konecny. He’s also played quite a bit with Matvei Michkov this season. With the Flames, though, Frost started on the third line, and I don’t see Calgary breaking up the Blake Coleman-Mikael Backlund-Matt Coronato line, and he’ll be hard-pressed to overtake Nazem Kadri as the team’s top-line centre.
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18. From the Flyers’ side of things, obviously, Kuzmenko is the most interesting part of the return. He’s had success in past, but it was with a high shooting percentage, and Kuzmenko has been a frequent healthy scratch in both of his first two NHL stops. If he gets a look in the top six with someone like Michkov, he may end up having some value, but somehow, I don’t see John Tortorella loving Kuzmenko’s game. It’s going to be hard for Kuzmenko to earn consistent minutes and good deployment.
19. Next week is the final week of games before the Four Nations Face-Off, so there will be an added emphasis on getting streamer options right. Anaheim, Buffalo, Detroit and Winnipeg play twice, Utah, Tampa Bay, Ottawa, and Montreal play four times, and everyone else has three games.
I’d circle back on Shane Pinto to maximize the four games played. He’s picked up 11 points in his past 12 games and the Senators are starting to really trust him more. Pinto has played 19 minutes in eight of nine games.
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Nick Schmaltz would also be a good add with Utah playing four times. He has at least one point in 10 of his past 11 games, including six power-play points. The top line of Schmaltz-Logan Cooley and Clayton Keller has been excellent lately, so hopefully, Cooley’s injury doesn’t put a damper on things.
You could also look at Canadiens goalie Jakub Dobes as a streamer earlier in the week. Montreal has a back-to-back with San Jose, who aren’t playing very well at all, and Los Angeles, who is really struggling to score. Dobes should get one of those games. As far as drops go, I think it’s time to part with Vladimir Tarasenko. The Red Wings play just twice, and Tarasenko has just two assists in seven games. He’s also been pushed down the lineup at times as well of late.
20. Cole Perfetti has really picked it up lately, recording seven points in his past five games. That also includes a hat trick and three power-play points. Nikolaj Ehlers has been excellent over the past couple of weeks, and Perfetti is capitalizing on playing with a hot linemate.
