20 Fantasy Thoughts: Maple Leafs’ Knies set to cash in big
Matthew Knies is quickly becoming a fantasy unicorn and all signs point to him developing into one of the NHL’s next great power forwards.
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Matthew Knies is quickly becoming a fantasy unicorn and all signs point to him developing into one of the NHL’s next great power forwards.
Knies will need a new contract after this season and what once seemed like it could turn into a good value deal for the Toronto Maple Leafs, now feels like the price is rising by the day. With each passing game, Knies leaves a bigger and bigger footprint out on the ice. Whether it’s causing chaos in the crease or sparking a dormant Leafs power play, Knies is quickly becoming an indispensable part of the Leafs lineup.
At six-foot-three and 227 pounds, there simply aren’t that many players that can offer his blend of offence and physicality, suddenly making Knies a must-roster in multi-cat leagues. The gold standard for this type of player is Brady Tkachuk and if you’re in any kind of a league that has an emphasis on hits, chances are Tkachuk won’t make it past the first 10 picks.
Now it would be unfair to Tkachuk to compare him to Knies, but you can at least see a few similarities. The Leafs forward is taking a massive step this season and is on pace for 36 goals and over 200 hits. It also feels like Knies is only scratching the surface of what he’s capable of and recently ignited a struggling Leafs man advantage by making his presence felt in front of the net. He’s already playing with Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner at even strength and if Knies can secure a spot on PP1, it’s only going to make him even more valuable.
Knies still has a long way to go to get to Tkachuk’s level. His shot volume and total offensive numbers aren’t even in the same stratosphere as that of the Ottawa Senators forward. Knies will need to up the penalty minutes as well, as that’s an area where Tkachuk also shines and only further cements him as a multi-cat stud.
With all that said, let’s keep in mind that Knies is still just 22 years of age and has more developing to do. He’s already one of the biggest players in the league and Knies is only going to get stronger and better as he gains more experience playing on a Leafs top line that’s loaded with talent. If you have him on your roster currently, you’re going to want to keep him and if you don’t, it would be wise to do whatever you can to acquire him.
You don’t want Knies on an opposing fantasy team when he reaches his full potential.
1. You have to be pretty encouraged about Brandon Montour’s play if you drafted him. He looks a lot closer to the 73-point player of two years ago compared to what he showed last season, with 11 points already and great shot volume. I was definitely worried about Montour after leaving a stacked Florida Panthers squad for the Seattle Kraken, but so far, he looks like full value as a No. 1 fantasy defenceman for your team. It hasn’t hurt that Vince Dunn’s been injured and right now there’s no one to challenge Montour for power-play time either.
2. It’s safe to say Logan Thompson is enjoying his new team, starting out 7-0-0 and possibly working his way into the Team Canada conversation. The Washington Capitals are off to a really good start, giving both Thompson and Charlie Lindgren great value. Both goalies are rotating every other game, so the only challenging thing is if you’re rostering one, there’s a chance they could only get one start per week at times depending on the schedule. The best bet is to try and get the Caps tandem.
3. It’s been an uncharacteristically slow start slow start for David Pastrnak. He’s on pace for only 31 goals and was actually benched for a period last weekend. I wouldn’t be overly concerned as I’m sure the Boston Bruins forward will heat up eventually, but there is at least a reason or two to have some worry. The Bruins don’t look anywhere near as strong as they have in recent years, so unless he and the team really pick it up soon, I think Pastrnak could have a tough time getting close to the 50-goal mark.
4. Valeri Nichushkin’s return is imminent, which could have big fantasy implications. The Colorado Avalanche forward figures to be a great stash if he ends up with Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen on the top line, but he may end up bumping someone off the top power-play unit. One of Casey Mittelstadt, who’s had a great start to the year, or Artturi Lehkonen could be the odd man out.
5. We should’ve seen this coming. Matvei Michkov was scratched for Thursday and Saturday night’s games, in maybe the least surprising move of the season so far. The Philadelphia Flyers forward saw his ice time drop substantially in the previous for four contests and we all know John Tortorella’s history about scratching players. No one is safe under Tortorella’s watch, even someone like Michkov who has 10 points in 13 games. I don’t think you need to panic right now if you’re rostering Michkov, but you always have to account for players under Tortorella to be out of your lineup from time to time.
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6. Pyotr Kochetkov had a classic Carolina Hurricanes statline the other night against the Flyers, giving up four goals on 16 shots in a 6-4 win. A couple of games earlier, he gave up two goals on 15 shots in a win, posting another bad save percentage. I’ve mentioned before there is a risk with Hurricanes goalies because the team is so structured defensively and is typically good at suppressing shots. You have to be almost perfect in games like that as a goalie to avoid bad peripherals.
7. I’m starting to get a little concerned about Seth Jarvis at even strength. He’s currently on the third line in Carolina with Jordan Staal and Jordan Martinook, and more than half his points have come on the power play. Jack Roslovic has been great on the top line and Martin Nečas is driving the second unit, so Jarvis may be stuck in the bottom six for a bit. Thankfully, he’s still on power play one and is producing there, but I’d be slightly worried about Jarvis if the man advantage goes cold.
8. It sounds crazy to say, but Patrick Kane may be droppable at this point. The Detroit Red Wings forward hasn’t been awful offensively with eight points in 14 games, but his shot volume is mediocre and goals have been hard to come by. Detroit is also trending in the wrong direction and don’t look anywhere as inspiring as they did last year. Kane got a chance with Dylan Larkin and Alex DeBrincat recently and didn’t do much of anything, so you may have to make a tough call.
9. Jake Sanderson has cooled off considerably in Ottawa from a hot start that saw him notch seven points in his first five games, with all but one coming on the power play. He’s only managed two points since. Sanderson is still on pace for 53 points, which would be a huge upgrade on previous season point totals, but I don’t necessarily get the sense a major breakout year is coming. I’m not sure what his ceiling is, though Sanderson is starting to feel like a player who has more real-life value than fantasy.
10. It was a strange week for Jake Walman. He was initially scratched for non-hockey related reasons after tallying seven points in the previous four games. Then, just as it looked like he was going to return to the lineup, Walman was ruled out with an injury. I know the San Jose Sharks are going to be near the bottom of the standings all year, but I’d stash Walman if you can. He’s played huge minutes and fills a lot of categories.
11. Don’t look now, but Anders Lee has six points in his past five games with good shot volume. Lee likely won’t keep this up but he could be a good short-term streamer at 14 per cent rostered if you need help at left wing. The New York Islanders have struggled to score at times this year, so try to take advantage of any rosterable skaters that catch lightning in a bottle while you can.
12. Ryan Donato is another lower rostered player to consider. The Chicago Blackhawks forward has nine points in his past nine contests and provides good shot and hits coverage as well. Donato also has tripe-position eligibility, which makes him very easy to incorporate on your roster and gives you good flexibility.
13. Will Sam Reinhart’s shooting percentage ever come down? It’s been inflated for well over a year now and if you thought his mark of 24.5 per cent from last year wasn’t sustainable, he was actually shooting over 28 per cent heading into Saturday. That’s turned into 11 goals for Reinhart already with the Panthers and it really makes you question if selling him high makes sense. At this point I’d probably just keep him. Even if there is some regression, Reinhart is still likely in for another massive season.
14. I’d put Matt Coronato on your watch list. Maybe he isn’t worth a waiver add just yet, but he’s notched four points in his past three games. The Calgary Flames forward made it clear he wasn’t happy about a recent demotion to the AHL, so he’ll be motivated to stay with the big club.
15. We’re getting to the point of the season where waiver wires are getting very thin, so you’ll have to get more creative going forward if you’re trying to take advantage of the schedule. One player to look at next week is Roslovic. I’m amazed he’s still only 12 per cent rostered after scoring his eighth and ninth goals Thursday, as Roslovic only had nine goals all of last year. The Carolina Hurricanes play four times next week and Roslovic is skating with Andrei Svechnikov and Sebastian Aho on the top line. He’s a must-add at this point.
One other outside the box add might be Luke Schenn. The Nashville Predators also play four times next week and Schenn has been filling the hits, blocks and PIMs categories all year. If you’re in a multi-cat league with those categories he could be a good specialist for you.
If you need to clear space on your roster, it’s probably time to drop Trevor Zegras. He has just one point in 10 games and the Anaheim Ducks play just twice next week. He’s been dropped to the third line at times as well and a bounce-back campaign looks like it isn’t in the cards.
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16. JJ Peterka continues to be a huge fantasy asset. A five-point run in his past three games has given him six goals and 13 points on the season and Peterka has cemented a spot on the Buffalo Sabres top line next to Tage Thompson. Considering he also decent shot volume, I’d say Peterka could be a hold for the rest of the season in points leagues as opposed to just a streamer.
17. After not scoring in his first nine games with the Vancouver Canucks, Jake DeBrusk recently had goals in three straight. He was in a much better spot playing with J.T. Miller and Brock Boeser before Boeser was injured, then he shifted to Elias Pettersson’s wing and the pair combined for a goal Saturday. I’m still not convinced DeBrusk’s ceiling is much higher than 25 goals and 50 or so points, but playing with Boeser and Miller is probably going to get the most out of him. Hopefully Boeser isn’t sidelined for long.
18. Nikita Kucherov continues to evolve his game. He’s already notched 11 goals, putting him on pace for 64 on the season. That would shatter his career high of 44 from last year. We’ve seen this from Connor McDavid recently, when he randomly went off for 64 goals and won the Rocket Richard Trophy in 2023. Like McDavid, Kucherov is more of a distributor and, incredibly, hit 100 assists a year ago. If elite goal scoring is now going to be a part of Kucherov’s game, the Lightning forward will bolster his argument to be a top-two pick in fantasy drafts.
19. Even with a few of encouraging starts in a row now for Stuart Skinner, the Edmonton Oilers goalie is still sitting with a losing record and an .882 save percentage, hurting his chances of earning a spot on Team Canada in the process. Skinner had major fantasy value in the last two years when the Oilers were playing great, but I don’t think he’s good enough on his own like a Lukas Dostal let’s say, to be a huge asset if the team isn’t playing well in front of him. If you’re relying on Skinner, you’ll have to hope Edmonton really gets rolling.
20. How concerned should we be that Wyatt Johnston has just one point in eight games? The answer is probably only mildly. He’s still filling some other categories and even though Johnston is on the third line, the Dallas Stars still have enough talent and depth up front to help him produce. Plus, he remains on the top power-play unit. I wouldn’t panic and try to buy low if you can.
