20 Fantasy Thoughts: Which version of Mikko Rantanen are the Stars getting?
There are lots of questions to answer about Mikko Rantanen’s fit with the Stars. Michael Amato explores what to expect from Rantanen in Dallas and much more in his 20 Fantasy Thoughts.
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If someone told you over the holidays that Mikko Rantanen was going to be traded twice during the next two months, you would’ve thought they were crazy. But here we are.
Rantanen now joins the Dallas Stars after a pretty disastrous, short stint with the Carolina Hurricanes. He recorded just six points in 13 games with the Canes, well below the standard he set with the Colorado Avalanche. With the Avs, Rantanen was coming off back-to-back 100-point seasons and scored 50 goals before. You don’t need more than two hands to count how many players are better than Rantanen in the NHL.
The question now is: Which version of Rantanen are the Stars getting? What we’ve seen of Rantanen without Nathan MacKinnon next to him, albeit in a small sample size that includes the 4 Nations tournament, hasn’t been great. That’s not to say Rantanen can’t get his game back to an elite level, but fit is going to be very important here. Carolina’s style of play wasn’t ideal for Rantanen, as they play a much more structured game and divvy up the ice time more evenly than Colorado does. For instance, Rantanen played about three minutes less per game with the Canes than he did with the Avs and with no one as talented as MacKinnon.
Rantanen now gets a fresh start in Dallas with a little more talented forward group overall and looked solid in his debut. He was dangerous on the power play and finished with a goal and an assist, to go along with five shots. That said, much like Carolina, the Stars spread out their ice time as well and tend not to lean on any one forward. Mikael Granlund averages slightly over 20 minutes a night, but a lot of that came with the San Jose Sharks. He’s only played 20 minutes twice since joining the Stars. Wyatt Johnston is up over 19 minutes, but no other forward is even averaging 18 minutes per game.
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Rantanen played close to 22 minutes Saturday against the Edmonton Oilers, but that’s a bit misleading because Roope Hintz left the game with an injury, so the Stars were down a forward and trailed big for a large portion of the game. I wouldn’t expect to see Rantanen get close to 22 minutes regularly in Dallas.
It remains to be seen where Rantanen slots in consistently for the Stars, but there is a natural fit with Hintz and Jason Robertson. I’d expect he gets around 18-19 minutes per game on another balanced team, and as I say with Carolina and Dallas, there’s a little tax on a player’s offensive production with both teams. You simply can’t expect Rantanen to produce the way he did in Colorado next to MacKinnon when the Avs were often trying to outscore their problems.
We also need to see Rantanen in an environment where he’s comfortable again. It was clear Rantanen was blindsided by the initial trade to Carolina and wasn’t willing to commit there long-term at the moment. That wasn’t the case with the Stars, and he should be motivated to prove himself in what could be a collision course with the Avs in the first round of the playoffs.
Ultimately, the rest of the season and playoffs are going to go a long way in determining Rantanen’s fantasy draft value for next year. He was a borderline top-10 pick in a lot of formats in Colorado, and he likely won’t get back there in Dallas, but can he show enough to stay in the top 15? Top 20? How good of a fit will the Stars’ style of play be for Rantanen? How will he click with new linemates?
There are lots of questions to answer.
1. Logan Stankoven goes back the other way and I don’t love it for the 22-year-old’s value. He’ll likely land in Carolina’s bottom six, and there isn’t as much talent as the Stars have down there.
2. You can probably pencil in Wyatt Johnston’s name onto the roster for Team Canada at next year’s Olympics. Fresh off a nice new contract extension, Johnston is quietly on pace for around 80 points and is quickly becoming one of the Stars’ best players. I can’t see Johnston not putting on the Canadian jersey next February.
3. If you’re looking for hits in a deep league, put Lian Bichsel on your radar. The Stars defender went down with an upper-body injury last weekend, but he’s back and is averaging over four hits per game
4. The biggest shocker of the deadline had to be Brad Marchand going to the Florida Panthers. A line of Marchand, Matthew Tkachuk and Sam Bennett is what nightmares are made of, but how much value will he really have with the Panthers? Marchand is still set to miss weeks with an injury, so he may not even get back into the lineup in time to help during the fantasy hockey season. Plus, he’s a rental right now and could sign with a different team in the summer.
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5. You can’t be too pleased about Jake Walman getting moved to Edmonton. There’s no denying the Oilers are a much better team, but Walman will be firmly behind Evan Bouchard for power-play time, as opposed to with San Jose where he was getting prime deployment. I don’t think Walman is a drop because he should still play a lot and is a good category filler, but you should expect his offence to dip a little.
6. Brock Nelson lands in a great spot with Colorado. He’s starting with Valeri Nichushkin and Jonathan Drouin, two talented offensive players who will help his numbers. The key for Nelson is what power-play unit will he be on? If he can bump someone off the top unit, it’s going to be huge for Nelson’s value. The New York Islanders have the league’s worst power play and Colorado is in the top 10.
7. I must admit, I’m a big fan of what the Ottawa Senators did this trade deadline. Dylan Cozens is a good bet to make and the Sens have a really talented top six. Although he has regressed over the past two seasons, he’s still only 24 and getting a chance to play with players like Drake Batherson and the newly acquired Fabian Zetterlund could be very fruitful for Cozens.
What confuses me is the return for the Buffalo Sabres. Josh Norris is talented, but he’s a little older and makes more money than Cozens. He also has a tough time staying healthy, and Cozens has more upside. Norris’s value should take a bit of a hit in Buffalo.
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8. John Gibson ultimately stayed put, as his injury history appears to be too much of a risk for potential suitors. It’s not an ideal scenario in the Anaheim Ducks crease, as Gibson doesn’t have any real value there, and at the same time, he’s going to continue to eat into Lukas Dostal’s playing time. The ideal scenario for those rostering Dostal is for Gibson to get dealt. Maybe this summer we’ll finally see it.
9. The Ducks blew out the Oilers on Tuesday, and at one point when it was 5-1 in the second period, Jackson LaCombe was a plus-5, being on the ice for every Ducks goal. LaCombe has had an incredible season and vaulted past the likes of Pavel Mintyukov and Olen Zellweger on the depth chart. LaCombe will be someone to target in next year’s drafts if he’s no longer available on waivers.
10. Vegas brings back Reilly Smith, though I think his fantasy value is minimal. If he manages to play with Mark Stone and Jack Eichel on a regular basis, he may have some staying power. Otherwise, Smith is probably a streamer at best and likely isn’t worth investing in.
11. It feels like Detroit always has way too many goalies, which is probably why they added Petr Mrazek. The Red Wings have been rolling with three netminders for years now, which brings everyone’s value in the crease down. It remains to be seen how much Mrazek will play, but it’s not good news if you’ve been utilizing Cam Talbot.
12. The 4 Nations Face-Off appears to have sparked Patrik Laine. The Montreal Canadiens forward hadn’t recorded a point in eight games leading up to the tournament, but after a strong showing for Finland, he now has six points in his past six games. Laine has managed to do all this with minimal ice time, so you have to be fairly encouraged with things if you held onto him through that quiet stretch.
13. The dam has finally burst for Steven Stamkos. After going 13 games without a point, Stamkos exploded for eight in his past three games. I thought he would lose value leaving the Tampa Bay Lightning and their power play, but that cold span leading up to the fantasy playoffs was tough to digest. We’re getting to the point of the season where you may have to start dropping some bigger-name players if you’re in a win-or-go-home situation, so Stamkos was probably close to being let go by a lot of fantasy squads. If you held on, this is a nice reward for your patience.
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14. Alex Vlasic is taking over power play one in Chicago with Seth Jones gone and now has eight points in 11 games. Vlasic could be a good depth piece for the rest of the season in a deep league. He’s getting big minutes and is good for blocks, too.
15. You have to feel terrible for Jack Hughes, as it’s now back-to-back campaigns where he couldn’t finish the season. The New Jersey Devils forward missed most of January in 2023-24 with an ailment and then was shut down for the final couple of weeks of last year’s campaign, too. It’s terrible timing with the fantasy playoffs fast approaching, and Hughes is one of the few irreplaceable players out there. I grabbed Dylan Holloway to replace him in my league, as Holloway has the same position eligibility and has been scoring at a decent rate lately. He’s still available in almost 50 per cent of the leagues. It’s definitely a downgrade, but you just have to hope you can survive.
16. Logan Thompson has come back down to earth a bit. The Washington Capitals netminder has only two quality starts in his past eight games, and his save percentage has been under .900 since the start of February. I think it’s more that the Caps aren’t as dominant as they were earlier in the year as opposed to Thompson playing poorly. Both team and goaltender were playing at an unreal level for long stretches, so it’s only natural that at some point that torrid pace would cool.
17. Last year notwithstanding, Rickard Rakell has now had two very productive seasons in Pittsburgh. He’s going to shatter his career high in goals this season and has excelled playing with Sidney Crosby. I don’t know what’s going to happen with the Penguins’ rebuild or re-tool, but if either Crosby or Rakell eventually leaves town, it’s going to hurt Rakell’s fantasy value.
18. Incredibly, Brandon Hagel has 30 goals this season with none coming on the power play. Hagel doesn’t get the luxury of being on the Tampa Bay Lightning’s top power-play unit, but he’s one of the few players still able to produce high-end offensive numbers without good deployment on the man advantage. This is both good and bad for fantasy, as power-play goals are obviously worth extra. So, it’s good to know you can count on Hagel even if he doesn’t get great deployment, though just don’t expect him to help you out with the man advantage.
19. Next week will give us a better chance to see how some players are acclimating to their new teams, as only Calgary and Dallas play twice, and everyone else plays either three or four times. The Vancouver Canucks are one of those playing four games and that includes a pair of back-to-backs. That means there’s a good chance Arturs Silovs plays two games next week, with one probably coming against the Chicago Blackhawks. Silovs is definitely inconsistent and tough to trust, but the goalies on the waiver wire are scarce this time of year and potentially grabbing two starts with one add is good value.
I’d take a look at the aforementioned Drouin, too. Now that Nelson is in the fold, that should give Drouin more of a chance for offence, especially with Nichushkin as the third man of the trio. Drouin scored in Nelson’s first game Saturday night and the Avs play four times next week, which include Monday, Friday and Sunday games.
It may be time to drop Yegor Sharangovich. He has just one point in seven games and he was recently made a healthy scratch by the Calgary Flames. With Sharangovich playing just twice, there are better options available.
20. How high will Macklin Celebrini get drafted next season? He’s scoring at over a 70-point pace with very little talent around him. You’d also have to expect a jump in year two as well, so it wouldn’t be that farfetched to see Celebrini as a top-25 pick in 2025-26 in one-year leagues.
