20 Fantasy Thoughts: Leevi Merilainen could save your season
In another instalment of 20 Fantasy Thoughts, Michael Amato takes a look at Leevi Merilainen’s spectacular run between the posts for the Ottawa Senators.
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Leevi Merilainen to the rescue.
There are many fantasy hockey teams teetering on the edge of playoff elimination due to bad goaltending, and so the Ottawa Senators netminder must seem like a miracle on the waiver wire. Thrust into action when Linus Ullmark got hurt, Merilainen has been spectacular for the Sens, not only keeping them afloat but helping push Ottawa into a wild card spot. Even with Saturday’s roller coaster of a game against Boston, Merilainen still managed to improve his record to 6-2-1 with a .917 save percentage and two shutouts.
It’s come against some pretty tough competition as well. Merilainen’s resume includes quality starts against the Minnesota Wild, Dallas Stars and Washington Capitals, while Ottawa has also struggled to provide him goal support at times. The Sens were shutout for the third time in eight games against the Caps on Thursday, but Merilainen still managed to help fantasy squads with a good performance.
Even more impressive? The Sens started Merilainen in both games of a back-to-back scenario last weekend, which isn’t easy to handle for a young and inexperienced goalie. He played very well in both wins, and is rapidly earning the trust of the team in front him.
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We’ve seen a handful of examples where a goalie gets called up midseason and goes on a crazy heater, most notably Jordan Binnington from a few years back. Now I’m not saying Merilainen is going to come out of nowhere and lead the Sens to the Cup, but it does feel like the net is undisputedly his until Ullmark returns. Ottawa is in a heated battle for the final two playoff spots in the East, so they are going to ride the hot hand.
Merilainen is going to play quite a bit and if he keeps this going, there’s a decent chance he’ll stay with Ottawa for the remainder of the year. How that looks when Ullmark is healthy is anyone’s guess, but it would be hard to send Merilainen back down when he’s playing like this and the Senators need every possible point they can get.
Even if Merilainen’s run is a short one, if you’re using the Zero-G strategy it’s not always about finding a long-term solution in goal. That’s the ideal scenario, but more often than not, you’ll have to use multiple goalies off waivers throughout the year that have temporary value just to get you by.
It’s all about surviving until the next gem emerges on waivers. Ride the Merilainen wave as long as you can.
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1. Here’s hoping Logan Cooley sticks on the top line while Dylan Guenther is sidelined with an injury. Cooley is in the middle of a breakout season for Utah in large part thanks to the chemistry he’s built with Guenther. Playing with Clayton Keller and Nick Schmaltz has also been a great fit for Cooley, who has goals in three straight. Had he got stuck on line two with Matias Maccelli and Josh Doan it would’ve been less than ideal.
2. I’m really intrigued by the long-term outlook for Matt Coronato. The Calgary Flames forward is on pace for 23 goals this season after spending some time in the AHL earlier in the year, and looks good in the top six with Blake Coleman and Mikael Backlund. Coronato has a knack for getting open around the net and I think he could be a 30-goal scorer someday.
3. There’s a huge opportunity in front of Adam Fantilli right now with the injury to Sean Monahan. Fantilli recently posted a seven-game point streak, and he’s been pushed up to the top line between Kirill Marchenko and Dmitri Voronkov with Monahan out for the foreseeable future. Marchenko is having a great year and Voronkov has been lighting up the scoreboard this season, so Fantilli has a chance to be really productive in that spot. He’s also good for hit and shot production. Consider him as an add if you can.
4. The sky appears to be the limit for Lucas Raymond. After an impressive 72-point season in 2023-24, Raymond is now on pace for 91 this year. The Detroit Red Wings forward has really taken off since Todd McLellan took over, notching 17 points in 11 games under his new coach. I don’t think Raymond’s campaign is due to a high shooting percentage either. Sure, he’s shooting over 19 per cent right now, but he shot 19 per cent last year and is at 15.5 per cent for his career average. There’s not a huge difference there. Raymond is legit.
5. Don’t look now, but Pavel Dorofeyev is up to 19 goals thanks to a surge of five in two games recently. Dorofeyev is definitely prone to cold streaks, though his shot volume should make him easy to hold through some of his quiet stretches. He’s currently on pace for 240 shots this year.
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6. Jamie Drysdale had a recent run of four points in three games and is now quarterbacking power play one for the Philadelphia Flyers. Drysdale has struggled with consistency and staying healthy, so don’t necessarily race out to grab him. Put him on your watch list for now and monitor his production to see if Drysdale really has staying power.
7. Meanwhile, Samuel Ersson has been effective since returning from injury, winning his past four starts. The Flyers are playing much better lately, but Ersson would still be a risky addition. Philly has the improved Red Wings up next and they have to play the high-powered New Jersey Devils twice more before the end of the month. That won’t be easy to navigate for Ersson.
8. The Pittsburgh Penguins put Tristan Jarry on waivers this week, a move that felt like it was a long time coming. I’m still not sold on Alex Nedeljkovic or Joel Blomqvist now that Jarry isn’t in the picture, as I’m not super confident in either behind this Pens squad. It feels like Pittsburgh has to trade for a goalie don’t they? They can’t squander one of the few Sidney Crosby seasons left because of bad goaltending. John Gibson makes a lot of sense to me.
9. I’d sell high on Brent Burns. He has five points in six games and had a two-game stretch recently where he had 14 shots, but Shayne Gostisbehere is healthy again and back on power play one. Given Burns’ age and the fact that he’s regressed over the past season and a half, I find it hard to believe he can keep this going for long.
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10. Brayden Point was scratched for a game earlier this week for missing a team meeting, providing another example of why it’s important to circle back and check your lineups before puck drop to make any adjustments. I’d bet a number of people had benched a player in favour of Point, which they could’ve slotted in when he was ruled out.
11. The timeline regarding John Tavares’ injury remains unclear, but it seems like he’s at least going to miss a few weeks. That gives Max Domi a real look in the top six centering William Nylander and so far, so good. Domi picked up two assists in two games since the move and has had success playing with high-end players in the past, though he’s struggled for the most part this year. There’s not much risk adding Domi, but temper your expectations on a big reward.
12. Darcy Kuemper hadn’t allowed more than a goal in five straight starts before conceding three Saturday night. It doesn’t get much better than that, and there are very few goalies more reliable than Kuemper right now.
13. Florida Panthers forward Matthew Tkachuk is stuck on one goal in his past 14 games. Tkachuk is on pace for his lowest point total since 2020-21, and I wonder if two very deep playoff runs are starting to take their toll. Florida, and especially Tkachuk, play a rugged game and eventually that’s going to wear you down after a couple of long post-seasons. I think Tkachuk and the Panthers are more worried about being in an optimal state come the spring and much less concerned about regular season point totals, which isn’t ideal for fantasy hockey.
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14. Put Sam Carrick on your watch list. He’s recently put together back-to-back multi-point games and has five points in five games. Carrick is on the New York Rangers’ fourth line so this isn’t necessarily sustainable, but see if he gets a promotion up the lineup as New York is desperate to move up the standings. If he gets a chance in the top six, maybe Carrick is worth a short-term look.
15. Marcus Hogberg took advantage of a small opportunity and has now started three of the past four games for the New York Islanders. It’s definitely not ideal if you’re leaning on Ilya Sorokin and Hogberg isn’t any threat to take over the starting job, but you’ll remember Patrick Roy did something similar with Semyon Varlamov last season. He isn’t afraid to ride the hot hand even if it means sitting Sorokin.
16. Things with J.T. Miller and the Vancouver Canucks hit a new low this week. Miller’s ice time plummeted and it feels like he has one foot out the door as the Canucks were blown out in back-to-back games. Miller was much better on Saturday but a trade out of town feels inevitable. That is probably the best option for Miller and Elias Pettersson from a fantasy perspective, because it’s just not working consistently right now.
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17. Schedules are getting very crammed to make up time for the 4 Nations Face-Off that’s coming up. Everyone plays either three or four games besides the Devils next week, so you’ll have your pick of waiver wire adds to maximize the schedule.
If you need help in net, how can you not look at Jakub Dobes? The Montreal Canadiens netminder is 4-0-0 with a .963 save percentage, beating the likes of Dallas, Colorado, Washington and Florida. Dobes is still playing sparingly but provides quality over quantity. He can do no wrong right now.
It might be a good idea to look at a Winnipeg Jet or two as well. The Jets play Monday, Wednesday, Friday and Sunday, making it easy to work anyone into your lineup. Cole Perfetti might be worth a shot. He had a multi-point game recently and although he’s been inconsistent, his schedule next week could make him worth the gamble just to get four games out of it.
As far as drops go, Dawson Mercer isn’t worth holding any longer. New Jersey has a quiet week and he doesn’t really have a path to top-six minutes. Mercer has also been held off the scoresheet in nine of his past 10 games.
18. Not surprisingly, Connor McMichael has hit a bit of a wall. He’s scored just once in 14 games, and the shooting percentage he had going earlier this year wasn’t going to be sustainable. I’d hold on to him for now as his trade value is low and he’s still in the top six on a strong team. I don’t think McMichael will score at as good of a rate as he did to start the season again, and I also don’t think he’ll be this quiet for too long either. Hopefully he’ll land somewhere in the middle and still be a fantasy asset.
19. I’d be a bit concerned if I was rostering Charlie Lindgren. Logan Thompson was outstanding in Lindgren’s absence, giving up only two goals in his past four starts. The Caps had been rotating goalies every other game but Thompson is really proving to be the better option. I could see Washington leaning on Thompson more if the division race gets tighter and they are trying to lock down the top seed in the East.
20. I can’t see John Klingberg having much fantasy value in Edmonton. Even if his comeback goes swimmingly, there’s no way he’s passing Evan Bouchard for power play time. Klingberg would’ve been more relevant if he landed with a team that needed help on the man advantage.
