2025 Positional Power Rankings: Starting Rotation (No. 1-15)

It’s okay to look at this and gawk a little bit. The kind of rotation that pushes Kershaw down to seventh is not something you see every day. You could make a solid argument for any of the top five pitchers in this rotation being its ace. Snell has two Cy Youngs. Yamamoto is one of the most decorated pitchers in Japanese baseball history. Ohtani is literally Shohei Ohtani. Glasnow and Sasaki are both excellent. The hits never stop coming – unless you’re facing this staff, in which case the hits will be few and far between.

Snell is the prototypical modern pitcher. His entire game is built around missing bats and chasing strikeouts. Does it mean extra walks? Absolutely. Do some innings drag on because he’s so single-mindedly focused on getting whiffs and avoiding barrels? Indubitably. But the math adds up. His breaking balls are so sharp that hitters simply can’t lay off frequently enough. Sure, maybe he’s not pitching the way that your AAU coach taught you, but your AAU coach hasn’t won multiple Cy Youngs.

That same general style – quality over quantity – is a theme repeated throughout this group. Glasnow set a career high in innings pitched last year – with 134 – and missed the playoffs with injury. Yamamoto only made 18 starts, and averaged only five innings per start. Sasaki missed most of 2024 with an arm injury and has been treated with kid gloves when healthy.

There’s a clear problem with this model – how do you ensure that you have enough innings when all of your pitchers are workload-limited? But the Dodgers have a simple, only-in-LA solution. They just add more pitchers to the mix. May, starting the season as the fifth starter, has explosive stuff but a checkered injury history. Gonsolin is a reasonable bottom-of-rotation starter who will spend a lot of time as part of a six-man rotation once he’s healthy. Kershaw can cover some of the missing innings. Miller is a former top prospect who has flashed huge potential but hasn’t turned it into consistent results just yet. We haven’t seen this style of rotation before. But then again, we haven’t seen many teams like the Dodgers before either.

If the Dodgers are a new-fangled version of an elite rotation, the Phillies are the old standard. Wheeler is a capital-A ace, perennially on the shortlist for the best pitcher in baseball. He’s great in the way that pitchers throughout history have been great. He fills the strike zone with unhittable fastballs and a dizzying array of plus secondaries. Wheeler doesn’t so much pick batters apart as he overpowers them. He’s looking to throw strikes, and if a hitter wants to stop him, they’ll have to do it by swinging. He also boasts prototypical size and stamina; over the past five years, he’s second in all of baseball when it comes to innings pitched.

First in baseball? That’d be Nola, the other half of Philadelphia’s elite duo up top. Nola isn’t dominant in the same way Wheeler is. He doesn’t blot out the sun with strikeouts and cow opponents with triple-digit velocity. But he’s blessed with impeccable, dot-the-corners command, and he mixes in sinkers, fastballs, and curves to leave hitters completely befuddled while they offer at marginal pitches. “Pitch to contact” is often used as a pejorative these days, but Nola excels at it, and when he gets to two-strike counts, his curveball racks up plenty of whiffs anyway.

Behind those two innings-eating monsters, the Phillies have a trio of intriguing lefties. Sánchez had a breakout season in 2024, and Suárez wasn’t far behind. They both rely on sinkers and changeups to keep the ball on the ground and befuddle righties. They both project for mid-3.00 ERAs and peripherals to match. They’d each look right at home as second starters for half the teams in baseball, only those top two Phillies are just too good. Sánchez has even been throwing harder this spring, as if he wasn’t hard enough to hit already when he was parked in the low to mid-90s. Unfortunately, Suárez will start the season on the IL, explaining his lower projected innings total. Luzardo is new to the club and cut from a different mold. He flashed huge strikeout stuff in 2023, combining an explosive four-seam fastball and vicious slider to great effect. He’s also been inconsistent and injury-prone, which explains his middling ERA projection and limited innings.

Painter, who has been the team’s top pitching prospect for years at this point, is similarly interesting: The pure raw stuff will make you gasp, but he missed all of 2023 and most of 2024 (he threw in the Fall League) after Tommy John surgery. If his rehab continues without incident, he’ll be in the majors sometime this summer. That leaves a few starts for Walker until everyone’s healthy. These are luxury options at the back of the rotation, though. There’s plenty of upside, and even the fail cases aren’t bad for a fifth starter. If the Dodgers deal in raw, unadulterated quality, the Phillies do a great job of blending it with volume.

The top of the NL East is lousy with great pitching, and even though Philadelphia has the better overall staff, the Braves’ top duo might have the edge in pure electricity. Sale won his first Cy Young last year with a performance that turned back the clock to his peak; he struck out nearly a third of the batters he faced, walked almost none, and threw as many innings as he had in the past half decade at age 35. It was a masterful performance marred only by a late-season injury that forced him to miss the playoffs. This year, assuming better health for Atlanta as a whole, I expect them to treat Sale more carefully in the regular season. His talent level is unquestionable, so why not leave a little gas in the tank for October?

Last year’s injury issues? They included Strider, who was a Cy Young frontrunner himself before his elbow gave out early in the season. An internal brace procedure means he’s already nearing a return; he got into his first spring game last week (he has faced 16 batters and struck out 10) and might be fully rehabbed by the end of April. It’s too soon to say how Strider will deal with his second catastrophic elbow injury, but given his spectacular past exploits – his career strikeout rate is 36.9% – the model and I both expect great things. Like Sale, caution is merited here. Keeping Strider healthy, both for the playoffs and over the long haul, is the team’s top priority.

That means plenty of innings-eaters to surround their top duo, and the Braves have all kinds of options for that role. They’ve got home-grown phenoms like Schwellenbach, who excelled in his rookie year, mixing six pitches to leave hitters off balance. They’ve got reliever conversions like López, who posted a 1.99 ERA across 25 starts last year, though his workload got the best of him down the stretch. They’ve got journeymen like Holmes, effective both in the rotation and the bullpen. Elder was effective for them in 2023, though he took a step back last year. Smith-Shawver and Waldrep have exciting tools but are unproven; they might both be rotation mainstays, or they might not put it together in 2025. Of those two, Smith-Shawver will get the first crack at sticking in the big leagues, starting there out of spring training. In service of protecting their top two arms, the Braves are going to throw everything they have at the wall and see what sticks this year.

Don’t like your pitching staff? Get a new one! Crochet, who the Sox snagged in the biggest trade of the winter, was a revelation last year in his first crack at starting in the majors. He always had top reliever stuff – after all, he was a top reliever – but his ability to do it for five innings at a time was unexpected and delightful. In addition to maintaining his velocity and missing as many bats as ever, he tightened up his strike throwing and honed his cutter into one of the best in baseball. Crochet is Boston’s unquestioned ace; the only worry here is workload. Last year’s 32-start season only worked out to 146 innings, because he topped out at four innings a start after the beginning of July. Figuring out how to keep Crochet healthy while maximizing his innings sounds like quite the puzzle. Figuring out whether he’s good? We’ve done that part already.

Buehler, another offseason import, is a trickier case. He signed a pillow contract after injuries cost him most of the past three years. He flashed some of his old skills during the playoffs, but not consistently. The upside is high, but there’s at least some chance that Buehler is never the same after his second major surgery.

Luckily for Boston, there’s a whole host of incumbents to complement their offseason acquisitions. Last year’s staff was full of pleasant surprises. Houck took a huge leap forward in his second year as a full-time starter, and while his slider-first approach produced fewer strikeouts than you’d expect, that came with plenty of grounders and few walks. Bello likewise keeps the ball on the ground, though his command hasn’t developed as well as the Sox hoped, leaving him looking like a mid-rotation innings eater. He’s starting the season on the IL, but the Sox expect him back soon. Crawford went from afterthought to solid starter over the past few years, and while we think he’ll move to the bullpen when the rotation is at full strength, he’s a luxury option as a swingman. He’s hurt too, because pitching is dangerous. Giolito missed the whole 2024 season, but he’s essentially last year’s version of Buehler — plenty of pedigree, but injury-ravaged, including starting 2025 on the IL with a hamstring injury. Heck, even the deep cuts like Fitts, Priester, and Sandoval interest me. Newcombe projects to break camp as their fifth starter, but I think he’ll end up in the bullpen after everyone’s healthy. Boston has one clear ace already. If Crochet stays healthy and someone else behind him takes a step forward, this could be the best rotation in baseball.

This is the first team on the list that I don’t give much chance of ending the year as the best rotation in baseball. The Twins succeed with depth more so than dominance; their top eight options are all solid, which gives them plenty of insurance against injury, but they don’t have a run-vaporizing ace or two to kick things up a notch. That’s no knock on López, Ober, or Ryan, to be clear. All of them look like solid number two starters to me. But even López, the best of the group, is more solid than transcendent. He uses pinpoint command to turn good stuff into great results, mixing five pitches to frustrate hitters who want to sit on his fastball. He’s very effective in that mold, but I think his ceiling is more like his 2023 results (3.66 ERA, 3.33 FIP, 4.6 WAR) than anything truly game-breaking.

Ober has a similar style – limit walks, attack with many pitches, rack up strikeouts if possible. At 6-foot-9, his weirdo arm slot and high-usage changeup keep hitters off balance, though he gives up enough fly balls that he’ll always allow his fair share of homers. Ryan might have the biggest upside of the group. Once a fastball-first glass cannon, he’s added to his arsenal and honed his command while adjusting to the rigors of a full big league season. I’m down on his workload potential, but 150 innings of a mid-3.00s ERA would suit Minnesota just fine.

I’m not sure who I’d pick out of the next five arms if I could only choose one. Woods Richardson is first in line after making 28 starts last year, but I’m skeptical that he can hold on to the improved command he showed in 2024. I’d like Paddack more as a multi-inning reliever (see the 2023 postseason for an example) than as a starter at this point; the Twins put him back in the rotation last year, but he looked flat in that role. Matthews looked overmatched in nine big league starts last year, but the minor league pedigree is unquestionable and his slider might be the best pitch of the unit. Festa was the best prospect of the group (he graduated last year), and looked better than Matthews in his first big league action; he’ll fit right in as a command-first innings eater. That leaves Varland, who will start in the bullpen but who I still believe in as a starter despite years of middling results. The stuff should play! It’s a deep group of arms, even if it’s not as top-heavy as your average top five rotation.

I wanted to use “this town isn’t big enough for the two of us” to describe Burnes joining Gallen in the wild wild west, but that’s not how pitching works; this rotation clearly does have enough room for them both. Burnes is at the tail end of a lengthy peak; he’s second among pitchers in WAR over the last five years, by any calculation of the statistic. He’s striking out fewer batters than ever, but he’s still missing bats and bullying people with his cutter. I’m expecting a bounce back in results even with similar raw components; given his propensity for getting ahead in the count and wide array of out pitches, a league average strikeout rate for such an accomplished pitcher seems illogical.

Gallen, now option 1-B instead of the team’s unquestioned ace, struggled with volume last year (he managing just over five innings a start), and had his worst run prevention numbers since 2021 to boot. Adding Burnes should take a little pressure off of him; he’s historically struggled a third time through the order, and dealt with nagging injuries throughout 2024, so taking some of the burden off his shoulders will hopefully boost his effectiveness.

Those two burn bright; the rest of the rotation is full of innings eaters. Kelly, Rodriguez, and Montgomery are all durable and above average when they’re at their best and healthy, though Montgomery could easily be dealt after his bummer 2024 season and harsh words from ownership this offseason. Last year, Kelly and Rodriguez missed time with injuries. This year, they’re coming out of spring healthy. Any two of those three would make a nice complement to Burnes and Gallen in a playoff rotation.

Pfaadt and Nelson could be more than that. Pfaadt had rotten batted ball luck but looked solid in a full season’s workload last year, and he’s only 26. You could say the same about Nelson, aside from his age (he just turned 27), and the fact that he’s starting the season in the bullpen as a swingman. Both of them throw a ton of fastballs and challenge hitters in the zone; you’ll see some ugly games as a result, but also more length than you’d expect from young pitchers. If either of them takes the next step this year, Torey Lovullo will have some tough decisions to make around who deserves a rotation spot.

This ranking looked different before Kirby got hurt. Now that he’s in line for a reduced workload thanks to shoulder inflammation, the other Mariners options will take on bigger roles. There’s nothing wrong with that, to be clear. Gilbert isn’t a second banana; he’s another first banana. Last season was his best yet — 208.2 innings of typically sharp command and strikeouts galore thanks to his spectacular splitter. Personally, I don’t think our projections are excited enough about him, but those are still good numbers. I just think he’s better than even that high bar.

Castillo is aging into a good rather than overpowering option. I’m buying what the models are selling here, a small bounce-back from 2024 that nonetheless doesn’t rise to his peak standards. In a year’s time, Miller might replace him as the team’s third starter; the splitter he added in 2024 turned him from a fastball merchant into a complete pitcher, and I think there’s more to come on that front. Heck, even Woo might pass Castillo before long; he was spectacular in 2024 and even if he doesn’t repeat a .240 BABIP, his pinpoint command gives him a high floor.

Add Kirby to this group, and you might have the best playoff rotation in baseball. Kirby has been nothing short of outstanding in his three-year big league career, and seems to add a new skill every year. His early-season absence highlights Seattle’s major pitching weakness: depth. None of the options after the top five are great, which means that any missed time will weigh heavily. Come October, if everyone’s right, no team will want to face this group. The question is whether they can reach the playoffs – and preferably reach them while still healthy.

Yeah, having the best pitcher in the world seems pretty helpful. Skubal and Paul Skenes are the only possible options as far as who’s the best guy doing it right now, at least in my mind. Everything Skubal throws is nasty, and he’s honed his strike-throwing to a fine point over the past two years, leaving hitters with nowhere to hide. Waiting Skubal out is no plan at all – his walk rate hovers around 4.5% – and trying to make contact isn’t a great option either. All in all, he’s an unsolvable riddle, and as long as he’s healthy, the Tigers have a huge leg up on a great rotation.

The group after Skubal is a mixed bag. Flaherty, a big-ticket re-signing this winter, has already had success in Detroit. His simplified approach – three pitches, with a fastball as the headliner – paid off with better command; he dotted the corners and slashed his walk rate nearly in half. He’s a capable second starter, a title that I’m also comfortable bestowing on Olson, whose 2024 looked like Flaherty’s with the volume turned down. He, too, has plus command, though he doesn’t have the same strikeout stuff that Flaherty can break out in big moments. The biggest blemish on his outstanding year was a shoulder strain that cost him nearly two months; we’re expecting a lighter workload this year as a result.

Those are the sure things. The next tier down starts with Mize, the first overall pick in 2018, who can’t seem to buy a strikeout at the major league level anymore. Despite a 17.3% K-rate, he was effective in 2024, largely because he kept the ball on the ground. It’s not how you imagine a top draft pick doing it, but hey, the Tigers will take average production when Mize’s career was previously trending towards no production. Jobe might have a worse projection, but he has a better long-term outlook; he’s our no. 9 overall prospect and made the team out of spring training. Pitch models and scouts alike think he has a bevy of plus pitches; the only question is how long it’ll take him to harness them all. You can throw Montero, Gipson-Long (currently rehabbing from elbow surgery), and Manning into this group if you’d like; they’re prospects or former prospects who, like Mize, haven’t put it all together in the majors just yet.

Finally, there are the veteran stopgaps. Cobb has been either good or injured for nearly a decade; right now, he’s dealing with a hip injury. Maeda used to be on the good-or-hurt spectrum before he turned in the worst season of his career in 2024. He’s starting the season in the bullpen, but we think he’ll get a few spot starts. If he’s on the mound to start an important game, either plenty of the guys in front of him got hurt or he’s turned back the clock. This is a good rotation, though, with a star up top and plenty of depth behind him.

Step one to creating a great rotation? Write in “Skenes” at the top. Step two? The Pirates are still working on that part. That’s not to say that the guys behind him don’t have promise. Keller is no longer a top prospect dripping with potential, instead having grown into a steady performer and solid mid-rotation option. Over the past three years, he’s delivered 530 innings with a roughly league average ERA. That’s great! More of the same would be lovely for the Pirates. Jones is the upside play; he has durability issues and faded hard as the season wore on, but his fastball/slider combination is one of the best in baseball, period. The next step for him will be developing an arsenal around those two pitches and refining their command. That’s complicated by elbow discomfort that ended his spring training; the Bucs are still waiting to hear more on that front.

The next two guys are both synonymous with fifth starter, which is awkward. Heaney is the logical conclusion of the Keller career arc; he never reached the heights portended by his prospect status, but he’s fashioned an entire career as a solid but unspectacular option who can move to the bullpen for the playoffs if you need him to. Likewise, Falter won’t wow you with his stuff, but he’s funky, throws lefty, and has good enough command to put up a credible line even without huge strikeout totals.

You wouldn’t be thrilled with either of those guys making a start in the playoffs. Enter Chandler and Ashcraft, the team’s top two prospects. Chandler is closer to big league-ready despite being three years younger, but either of them could lay claim to a rotation spot by year’s end. Chandler does it with a huge fastball and an evolving secondary arsenal, while Ashcraft is more of a slider merchant, but both of them have the ability to miss bats at a big league level. Turning that into a successful season will be the tricky part.

I’ve left out Oviedo, Mlodzinski, et al, but that’s because I needed to save space to talk about Skenes. He’s great. He’s developing new pitches faster than opponents can figure out his old pitches, popping radar guns with ludicrous readings, and generally behaving the way you’d expect the best pitcher in baseball to behave (again, it’s him or Tarik Skubal in my book). The Pirates have the ultimate trump card: A pitcher who will make them a favorite in almost any game he appears in.

Where many of the teams at the top of this list have a clear headliner, the Reds are more of an ensemble cast. Don’t worry too much about the ERAs listed here, because Cincy has one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball. Instead, focus on the breadth of talent, because it’s delightful. Greene probably won’t allow so few home runs again, but his fastball looks better than at any point in his career, and given how frequently he throws it, that might be the single biggest developmental leap available to him. I don’t think he’s an ace on the scale of a Wheeler or a Skubal – but he’s big, durable, and misses plenty of bats even with a two-pitch arsenal (I’m not a buyer of the splitter just yet).

I’m jumping around in the order a little, but let’s hit Martinez next. He signed a QO after an excellent 2024 split between the rotation and the bullpen, and he was great in both roles. Like Greene, he benefited from an unexpectedly low HR/FB rate, but unlike Greene, he got his results by mixing five pitches and keeping hitters off balance. Some regression is likely, but he has an 80 ERA- and 90 FIP- since returning from NPB. He’s a legit playoff starter, in other words. Singer, the team’s big offseason acquisition, is cut from the same mold, unspectacular but steady.

That top three of established starters gives the Reds some wiggle room with the rest of the rotation, and they’re filling that room with high-upside arms. Lodolo has a mind-bending breaking ball that he hasn’t quite weaponized yet, plus sharp command. Similarly, Abbott has an otherworldly slider but needs to figure out how to turn that into results. He’s going to miss the first few starts after a delayed ramp-up this spring, paving the way for a few starts for Spiers. Lowder has been dealing with elbow discomfort, but he tore through the minors and even made six starts in the bigs last year after being drafted in 2023. Petty made our Top 100 Prospect list this year after harnessing his huge fastball and developing a slider to complement it. This is a great group of potential difference makers – and Greene would be in this group if he hadn’t already gelled. The future looks bright.

Every time I see this deGrom projection, I giggle a little. Four wins in 132 innings? What is he, Jacob deGrom or something? But right, he is Jacob deGrom, the nastiest pitcher I’ve seen live, a guy with a 2.07 ERA over his last 700 innings pitched. The problem is that those 700 innings started in 2018, and the pattern is going the wrong way. He made nearly every start from 2018 to 2020, but his starts per season since then have gone 15, 11, six, and three. He’s talking about dialing down his velocity to stay healthy, which is worth keeping an eye on; his wave of injuries coincided with a velocity spike. We have him down for 26 short starts this year and if he manages it, I have little doubt that the quality of his innings will be spectacular.

Eovaldi is here as the straight man to deGrom’s wild card; no one’s expecting brilliance, but volume and competence seem all but assured at this point. Over the years, he’s worked out a formula that keeps him on the mound and batters off balance. It’s not about velocity, though it was early in his career; instead, it’s pinpoint command and a great splitter. Mahle doesn’t fit quite so easily on the great-or-dependable spectrum; it’s been a while since he’s pitched a full season thanks to a string of injuries, but he has number two starter upside. In his first extended action in years, we’re expecting less than that, but plenty of volume. Gray would have fit into this group until he got injured – the Rangers signed Corbin as insurance, which is an ominous sentence.

After that, it’s all about the youth. Rocker and Leiter were Texas’ top picks in consecutive drafts after being teammates at Vanderbilt. Rocker took the long way to the majors, including the Mets drafting and then not signing him, but he’s the more promising of the duo today. He’s all fastballs and sliders, but they’re really good fastballs and sliders. Leiter has a wider arsenal, but he got absolutely tattooed in limited action last year. He needs to sharpen up his command or coax more strikeouts out of his riding fastball; otherwise, he’s in for another rough ride.

Finally, what list would be complete without a few backup options at the end of the rotation? Corbin has been one of the worst regular starters in baseball for years, but he’s got a good résumé and plenty of durability. Bradford was solid but injury-prone last year, and he’s out with injury now to boot. Houser continues to intrigue major league general managers without producing. If one of this group turns in a good season, the Rangers will be pleased, but the real action is up at the top of the list.

In classic Padres fashion, these guys are so great that AJ Preller is trying to trade them. Cease came over as the presumed staff ace and has lived up to the billing, turning in the best season of his career in 2024. He uses his slider surgically and continues to incrementally improve everything he does to support it. Could he get dealt, given that he’s hitting free agency this winter? Sure, but until he does, he’ll give San Diego both quantity and quality atop the rotation.

King also came over in trade last winter, as the key return for Juan Soto. He was also awesome despite a bumpy opening month, and he’s also headed for free agency. He doesn’t have the same one overpowering pitch that Cease does, but he mixes four options evenly and generates strikeouts in bunches thanks to his command and craftiness.

Pivetta and Hart are this year’s new acquisitions. Pivetta looks like a solid number three to me, with better command than stuff but pretty good stuff anyway. His cooler-than-expected market this winter perhaps implies some injury concerns, but that’s just the name of the game when it comes to free agent pitchers these days. Hart’s risk profile is different. He was a middling minor leaguer before decamping to Korea for the 2024 season and dominating in KBO play. The Padres have had success in identifying good arms returning from foreign leagues, and regardless of our model’s predictions, I think they’ve found another hit.

That leaves Darvish, the longtime rotation anchor, and a bunch of backup options. Darvish is 38 and increasingly relying on craftiness over stuff. He’s never been a paragon of durability, and a personal issue/injury saga limited him to 16 starts last year. He’s dealing with an elbow injury this spring, to boot. I’d be comfortable giving him a start in the playoffs, but I wouldn’t count on volume. That leaves some innings for the other guys. Kolek is a career minor leaguer getting a crack at the bigs after incremental improvement, Waldron’s knuckleball gives him a high floor but a low ceiling as a fifth starter (he’s out with an oblique injury), and Vásquez, another piece of the Soto return, had a rough 2024 but still showed hints of his bat-missing promise. I think he’s a high-leverage reliever in the long run, but he looks set to start the season in the rotation thanks to nagging injuries and illnesses elsewhere.

In a short series, you don’t want to face the Royals. I don’t buy that Ragans projection for even a second; it’s baking in some of his past struggles, but he’s a bona fide ace now, a lefty fireballer who strikes out so many opponents that his occasional lapses in command hardly hurt him. He’s still working out exactly how to mix his five plus pitches, and a deGrom-esque consolidation feels reasonable to me – who needs a curve when your slider is that good? – but either way, he’s a capital-D Dude, a worthy anchor of a top rotation.

His two lieutenants, Lugo and Wacha, are back for another round after joining Kansas City last year. They succeed in different ways – Lugo with a hellacious curveball backing a varied arsenal and Wacha leaning on his high-usage, high-effectiveness changeup – but they both excelled in 2024 and provided invaluable volume to boot. I’m expecting more of the same from both of them; I think their ERA projections are missing their recent string of good form.

The reason the Royals are so far down this list is that they don’t have an obvious back of the rotation yet. Marsh muddled through 2024 with a fifth starter’s line, while Bubic was dazzling in a short relief role as he came back from a 2023 Tommy John, so much so that he’s been named to the rotation to start the season. Lynch looked good in relief, too, but doesn’t have the same upside, so I think he’ll occupy a swingman role. Lorenzen is going to pitch as much as he has to; in a perfect world, Kansas City would find two younger arms to round out their rotation, but the season is long and Lorenzen is a perfectly reasonable insurance policy. The regular season might be a struggle for this group, but they’re built for the playoffs.

After signing Fried this winter, the Yankees rotation looked both deep and talented. But Gil strained his lat in spring training, and then Gerrit Cole had surgery to repair a torn UCL. Then Schmidt felt shoulder soreness, slowing his ramp up. Now a rotation that boasted a Cy Young winner and plenty of experienced arms is slotting in rookies and speculative veterans and hoping the whole thing works out.

Step one in things working out would be Fried pitching like an ace, which he’s done for four years running when healthy. He’s good with a kitchen-sink style, mixing five pitches with plus command to fluster and hinder opposing hitters. Rodón can help too; he bounced back from a brutal 2023 last year, and looked better in the second half. He relies on fastball shape more than your average top starter, and right now, that part of his game is looking up.

Schmidt has had trouble staying healthy, but he’s a good bet to shut opponents down when he’s on the mound. Stroman, on the other hand, is a lock to make 25 starts, but those starts weren’t particularly effective last year. He’s never been a big strikeout pitcher, but his 16.7% K-rate last season was ominous, and he’s walking more batters than he did at his peak too. The Yankees would prefer to have him as a swingman rather than a full-time rotation member. If they get their wish, or if he’s substantially better than projected, this rotation will probably be good enough to get the team to the playoffs. Oh, and if they really get their wish, Carrasco will provide some crafty veteran innings until Gil returns.

Finally, a quick note on Warren: he might not have eye-popping velocity, but he’s got huge strikeout upside thanks to a gorgeous sweeping slider, and he mixes pitches well around that offering. The results aren’t there yet, but if one Yankee is going to exceed expectations by a mile, he’d be my bet.

In the same way that Houston is transitioning from last generation’s set of stars to a new one on offense, they’re halfway through the same move in the rotation. Valdez broke out in 2020 and has been sensational since then, but he showed signs of decline last year. He’s definitely the team’s ace, but he’s become very dependent on the shape of his sinker, and it’s gotten less consistent in recent years; when the pitch straightens out, Valdez gets hit hard. Working out what that means for the future is so tough that our models essentially throw up their hands and project some regression everywhere.

McCullers is working towards a comeback after injuries cost him the last two years. I won’t insult your intelligence by pretending I have a great idea of how he’ll look upon his return to game action; two years is a lot of years, after all. Unfortunately for Houston, you can lump Garcia in with McCullers when it comes to not knowing what you’ll get; after Tommy John surgery in May 2023, he’s still fighting his way towards recovery, and he had a setback during spring training, which means his innings totals are anyone’s guess at this point.

Those three have been in Houston for a while; everyone else is relatively new blood. You’ve got Brown, with the Justin Verlander patterned delivery and impressive minor league pedigree. He broke through with a 3.49 ERA and 3.58 FIP across 30 starts in 2024; our models are expecting a worse year in 2025, thanks to his previously uninspiring major league numbers, but I think this projection is too pessimistic. Arrighetti didn’t fare as well last year and didn’t perform as well in the minors; accordingly, we’re expecting worse, but still solid, production from him this year. Those two are going to need to throw big innings to keep Houston in playoff contention.

Still, that won’t be enough. Blanco, a feel-good story last year as a 31-year-old finally breaking through, will have a big role to play too. Our projections take his long and mostly un-decorated career into account – but also the fact that while he had a 2.80 ERA last year, other run prevention indicators were less impressed with his performance. Wesneski hasn’t hit it big in the majors yet, but he’s got a pile of plus pitches and a four-seamer crying out for some Astrosification (they’ve historically been excellent at developing four-seam-dominant pitchers). Like the rest of Houston’s team, the rotation is lurching towards the future, with huge error bars in 2025.