2025 Positional Power Rankings: Third Base

I’ve long said that José Ramírez is the most underrated player of his generation, and it appears that players agree with me, as do a large percentage of fans and analysts. Ramírez is one of the two third basemen, along with Austin Riley, who go into any given season in the MVP conversation, and though he hasn’t landed the hardware yet, he’s received votes in eight of the last nine seasons and currently ranks 42nd all-time in MVP share.

Ramírez is 32, but he’s in such rarified air that given a normal decline phase, he isn’t likely to fall into a problem area production-wise until well into the 2030s. ZiPS sees him finishing with around 2,500 hits, 70 WAR, and 58 JAWS; his standing in JAWS would put him ninth among third basemen, finishing ahead of contemporaries like Manny Machado and Nolan Arenado.

If third base is often a tweener position, populated by players who aren’t defensively gifted enough to be shortstops or offensively potent enough to be first basemen, Ramírez is one of the exceptions, as he’d be one of the top first basemen in the game, and likely could have played a credible shortstop earlier in his career, though the presence of then-teammate Francisco Lindor made that unnecessary.

Should the Guardians lose Ramírez to a significant injury, there’s nobody on the roster who can replace even half of his production. Gabriel Arias and Daniel Schneemann have value as utility players, and they might platoon at third if the situation called for it, but any prolonged Ramírez absence could well be enough to knock Cleveland out of the playoff race.

After three consecutive 5-WAR seasons, Austin Riley had a really down 2024, a common theme for Atlanta’s starting lineup. Still, a rib cage strain and a broken hand courtesy of a Jack Kochanowicz fastball were mitigating factors in what was easily his worst season since his 2021 breakout, and there’s little reason to think that Riley can’t return to the elite tier of third basemen.

The projections at least don’t give much reason for furrowed brows, as these weren’t injuries likely to hinder him long-term. He hit like he typically does after returning from his abdominal injury, putting up an .846 OPS in July and August before missing the rest of the season with the hand fracture. For at least the next four or five years, Riley ought to be counted on for a wRC+ in the 125-135 range and 35-40 homers a year, offensive production you don’t get from the hot corner. He’s not the glove man some of the other top third basemen are, but he’s hardly disastrous, and the days of wondering if he’ll end up at first base or in left field are long behind him.

The backups here suggest that the Braves must be comfortable with Riley’s health and anticipated production, though they surely held their breath when a Jackson Rutledge fastball hit the slugger’s healed right hand last week. Thankfully, the MRI showed no structural damage, and it’s not expected to be an issue moving forward.

Remember when Matt Chapman’s second-half struggles in 2023 meant that he was in a steep offensive decline and that no team should touch him with a 39-and-a-half-foot pole? Remember kids: Friends don’t let friends overinterpret first half/second half splits. The Braves must be comfortable with his health and production, as they didn’t hedge their bets with better options than pure utility players Nick Allen and Luke Williams. Chapman also demonstrated that his glove has a bit of gold left in it; he was worth 11 OAA and 17 DRS, and won his fifth Gold Glove. He signed a six-year, $151 million deal to stay with the Giants last September.

Entering his age-32 season, Chapman doesn’t come without risk, but there’s no particular reason for concern, at least in 2025. And if league-wide offense ticks up at all, he has a fighting chance to be San Francisco’s first 30-homer hitter since Barry Bonds in 2004. The Giants have decent depth at third in Tyler Fitzgerald, Casey Schmitt, and Wilmer Flores, but the hope is to avoid having to use it.

An elbow injury and resulting surgery meant that Manny Machado was limited to DH duty at the start of the 2024 season, but the Padres gradually increased his time at third base in May and June, and by the homestretch, Machado was back to playing the position full-time. When it was all said and done, he had put up a fairly typical Manny Machado season, with final numbers right around his career averages.

Machado turns 33 in July, so his best seasons are likely mostly behind him, but his profile is mercifully short on danger signs. He still hits the ball very hard (48% hard-hit in 2024), his bat speed is in elite territory (83rd percentile), and his defense at third base is still more than acceptable (+15 FRV over the last three years, and right at average in 2024). The only real decline Machado has experienced is his foot speed (down to the 15th percentile), but that was never a big part of his game.

There’s no one on the roster whose presence indicates that San Diego has any other plan than starting Machado 150 times at third base in 2025. I like Eguy Rosario more than most, but if the Padres were inclined to give him a larger role at the hot corner, they likely would have done so last year when Machado was DHing. Tyler Wade’s basically around because he’s a lefty bat, while the draw of Jose Iglesias is his ability to play the middle infield.

Losing Alex Bregman hurts, but the Astros did a surprisingly good job making up for his loss, even though it forced them to part with Kyle Tucker a year early. ZiPS absolutely adores Isaac Paredes in Houston, significantly more than it did when he called Wrigley Field home. That’s mostly because the park factors in ZiPS utilize a model that considers whether a player is a pull hitter or a spray hitter. Paredes is an extreme pull hitter, and ZiPS believes he’ll thrive in Daikin Park. You might point to his Statcast expected stats being lackluster as cause for concern, but you have to remember that the longer a player exceeds or falls short of metrics like this, the more a projection ought to believe them.

The ultra-flexible Mauricio Dubón will be on hand for the occasional spot start, and Luis Guillorme may catch a few starts as well. In the event of a significant injury to Paredes, I’d love to see the Astros give Shay Whitcomb a real look. Whitcomb was never really on the prospect radar, but he’s hit for power wherever he’s played, and he made great strides last year in terms of his plate discipline.

Among the teams in the top 10 of these rankings, this is easily the most uncertain third base situation. That would have been a surprising statement three months ago, what with Rafael Devers having just turned in another All-Star season at the hot corner, but Alex Bregman’s continued availability in free agency turned into an opportunity for the Red Sox even as it has necessitated some infield shuffling.

Bregman’s peak is probably behind him, but he’s still a top-10 third baseman, posting a 118 wRC+ and 4.1 WAR in 2024, and would seem the obvious choice for Boston if it doesn’t cause a significant rift in the clubhouse. He’s never been the defensive match of a Nolan Arenado or a Matt Chapman, but he’s always been solidly above average (as you’d hope for from a converted shortstop), posting 6 OAA, 5 FRV and 6 DRS last year.

Given his potent bat, Devers would have to be an absolute disaster at third for him not to be one of the position’s stars overall. But with a better defensive option on the roster, playing Devers elsewhere is a no-brainer, especially given his slow start to spring action as he works on his shoulder strength and tinkers with his swing. Perhaps that’s why he has seemed more open to the idea in recent days after initially bristling at the suggestion. Still, there’s no issue playing him at third when needed, meaning that Romy Gonzalez and Nick Sogard will only get a few playing time crumbs here.

Thanks to the presence of Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, and Jackson Holliday, Jordan Westburg progressed through the Orioles system with surprisingly little hoopla for a former first-round pick. But he always hit in the minors, and he was called up in June 2023 with Adam Frazier and Jorge Mateo flagging. Westburg’s .260/.311/.404 rookie line wasn’t eye-popping, but it ensured that he made the Opening Day roster in 2024, and he solidified his position by bursting out of the gates last April, finishing the month with an .880 OPS. When Holliday was optioned back to the minors, Westburg played a bunch of second base as well. He’s projected to see a lot of time there again in 2025 as the backup to Holliday, and he’ll likely be the starter if the Orioles are conservative about using the latter against left-handed pitchers.

Ramón Urías has been a valuable utility infielder the last few years, a role he’ll continue to fill in 2025. He’s had rather volatile left/right splits, but he ought to be more than capable of being a “sort of” platoonmate for Holliday, with Westburg shifting to second base and Urías playing third against lefties. It’s also possible that Holliday and Urías end up in a more traditional platoon situation at second, leaving Westburg the exclusive third baseman, but the Orioles have been a little opaque about what the plan is.

ZiPS still thinks Coby Mayo can credibly play third, but it’s mostly a moot issue with Westburg and Urías firmly established on the depth chart ahead of him. Mayo’s shot at more regular playing time might come in another organization, which is at least a possibility if Baltimore tries to trade for a starting pitcher at some point this season. Mayo expressed his frustrations about the situation after being optioned to Triple-A Norfolk on Tuesday. And it’s not hard to see where he’s coming from — after beating up on Triple-A pitchers for more than a year, there still isn’t an obvious path to getting him significant time in Baltimore.

I’m happy to see Junior Caminero here, largely because I’ve always been a fan of players who I can use for new lyrics to the Canyonero song from The Simpsons. While his 119 wRC+ in Triple-A and 105 wRC+ in the majors last year won’t make your eyes to pop out of their sockets, these are spectacular results for a 20-year-old; most players that age are just reaching High-A or are trying to cross the Double-A threshold. While Caminero has played some shortstop, it’s been apparent for a while that Carson Williams is the future there and Ha-Seong Kim the present, at least when the latter’s shoulder has healed. The projection systems disagree about Caminero, and sadly, I have to side with Steamer and OOPSY over ZiPS on this one. While still projecting a very solid campaign for Caminero, I think ZiPS is underselling his potential power upside.

The speedy José Caballero is the backup. He has been good enough to be worth 3.8 WAR in the majors at just over a full season’s worth of plate appearances, but Caminero ought to have a very long leash here. Still, Caballero’s abilities mean the Rays won’t be incentivized to play Christopher Morel at third and avert their eyes when he’s on the field. Curtis Mead is probably most valuable as a third baseman, but he appears to be the odd man out, and I expect that he’s a top candidate to be traded elsewhere should the Rays need to acquire extra help this year.

Re-signing Pete Alonso to play first base restored the status quo ante at third for the Mets, with Mark Vientos returning to the scene of his breakout 2024 season. If you ranked the players whose popular perception around the league jumped the most last year, Vientos would likely be at or near the top of your list, as he successfully wiped out the memories of his 68 wRC+ in 2023 with a .266/.322/.516 triple-slash, 133 wRC+, and 27 round-trippers. And while Vientos might not have wowed with the leather, he has at least established that he’s not an unplayable disaster at third.

You might be tempted to believe that 2024 is now Vientos’ established level of play, but “last year” is a very poor projection system. His performance from 2023 still matters, and the projections are all largely hedging their bets until we see more from him. Despite the computer pouring some cold water on expectations, Vientos is still forecast to be solid enough to keep the Mets in the top third of the league.

As long as Vientos is healthy and at least in the same galaxy as last year production-wise, there will only be scraps available at third base. Any of Jeff McNeil, Brett Baty, and Ronny Mauricio could catch an odd start here or there. A significant injury probably leaves Baty as the next option, as he would have been if Alonso had signed elsewhere and Vientos had moved to first base.

The Twins’ third base rank isn’t so much a question of performance as it is one of health, and that question is: Can Royce Lewis stay healthy enough to get the 500-plus plate appearances he’s projected to on our Depth Charts? The last time Lewis played even 100 games in a season was way back in 2019. But whether you prefer the mildly optimistic ZiPS projection (111 wRC+) or the sunnier OOPSY prediction (126 wRC+), a healthy Lewis can hit, and he won’t give those runs back on defense. Hopefully, his hamstring injury, which will keep him out of the Opening Day lineup, isn’t an inauspicious sign of things to come.

Third base is deep, however, and the outlook becomes foggier if Lewis once again struggles to get more than 200-300 plate appearances. Willi Castro has been shockingly good the last couple of years, but the Twins have used him all over the diamond, and it was Jose Miranda who got the lion’s share of the non-Lewis time at third last year. If the Twins end up with a lot of Miranda and Brooks Lee, their ultimate position here might be 10-15 spots lower than it is now.

Some of the coverage of Nolan Arenado’s decline might leave you with the impression that he was a replacement-level player in 2023 and 2024, and bears a large share of the responsibility for the Cardinals’ lackluster results in those two seasons. But while it’s true that he’s showing signs of slowing down, especially with the bat, he’s still a solidly above-average player overall, and he hasn’t missed even 20 games in a season since 2014. He’s been a bit under his career numbers by wRC+ the last two seasons (104 vs. 118), but that’s perfectly normal for a player entering his mid-30s. Arenado’s crime appears to be not repeating his 7.2 WAR, 149 wRC+ 2022 campaign, but that was never a reasonable expectation.

Since the Cardinals have not been able to swing a trade that Arenado would approve of, they’ll have to suffer the indignity of having a B+ third baseman, who is putting together a strong Hall of Fame argument, on their roster. Quelle horreur!

With no questions as to his durability, we’re only projecting a handful of scattered appearances by the other players here. Should an injury arise, I suspect Brendan Donovan will be the most likely recipient of the playing time, and ought to acquit himself well, with the Cards likely using Thomas Saggese and Nolan Gorman to take over Donovan’s other tasks at second, left field, and designated hitter.

In the first half of last season, Alec Bohm looked like he had silenced any doubts about whether he is Philadelphia’s long-term solution at the hot corner. He posted a 128 wRC+, hit 11 home runs, and made the All-Star team. But then a hand injury knocked him out in early September (his bat had started to swoon before that), and he was awful after returning, including a 1-for-13 performance in Philly’s quick playoff exit. Bohm was a frequent topic of trade rumors this winter, but nothing came out of it, and it would take more than his bad finish to the season to bench him.

Bohm also put up his best defensive season so far, with a FRV of three runs above average. It’s not just a Statcast outlier either, as DRS, which previously absolutely hated Bohm, to the tune of having him at -10 runs or worse each of the last few years, pegged him as average at third base. As Philadelphia’s core ages, Bohm’s presence will continue to take on greater importance.

It might surprise you to learn that after four seasons as an all-purpose role player, Edmundo Sosa has been worth 3.5 WAR per 600 plate appearances in the majors. Barring injury, Sosa won’t get a ton of time here, but he’s an excellent Plan B.

Every year, someone predicts the demise of Max Muncy, but so far, he’s basically shown no decline at the plate when healthy. Decline will come eventually, of course, because time is the only undefeated entity in the universe, but there’s no particular reason to think 2025 is the year. Muncy missed three months last season with an oblique injury and a displaced rib, but he put up a .925 OPS after returning in mid-August, putting to rest any concerns that the injury would sap his production. He remains a middling defensive player at third, but at least he’s holding steady, as a move to first base or designated hitter is impractical on a team that employs Freddie Freeman and Shohei Ohtani.

If Muncy struggles with injuries again or just needs time off, Chris Taylor and Enrique Hernández are available in reserve. The hope is that Taylor’s drop-off last year was a BABIP mirage and that Hernández will help out against the occasional lefty. It’s worth noting, however, that Hernández’s platoon splits have shrunk in recent years, and before his successful return to the Dodgers, he had struggled the previous season-plus with the Red Sox.

Miguel Rojas and David Bote are emergency options, though they’ll likely see very little playing time here, if any. Alex Freeland could be the eventual successor at third base if he continues to impress and is unable to push Mookie Betts off shortstop, but he’s unlikely to be a threat to Muncy’s playing time this season.

Who is Toronto’s third baseman? I’m not sure the Blue Jays even know for sure right now. At the top of the heap, we have Ernie Clement, in many ways the least ambitious option here. Clement was thoroughly adequate in 2024, but he didn’t particularly excel at any one aspect of the job. He has some power and some defense and steals the occasional base, a combination that screams stopgap player. Also working against him is the fact that he’s the oldest of the six options listed here, and doesn’t have an exploitable platoon split that the Jays could use situationally.

It’s nearly put-up-or-shut-up time for Orelvis Martinez, who has been a prospect seemingly for forever, and was suspended for PED use for a large chunk of 2024. He’s still just 23, however, and hit well in Triple-A last year; he certainly has the highest upside of anyone here.

Will Wagner is an interesting bat and has good on-base skills, but he’s likely to see significant playing time at other positions, especially DH. I’m still a fan of Addison Barger, but he didn’t hit at all in the majors last season; the Jays, who intend to contend, will have a hard time giving full-time at-bats to him or Davis Schneider. Vladito could even see a bit of time at third, depending on how things shake out.

After playing in 122 games in 2023, it appeared that Josh Jung had finally gotten off the injury schneid that cost him much of 2022 (torn labrum) and a good chunk of 2021 (stress fracture). Alas, it was not to be. Four games into the season, he swung at an errant Phil Maton pitch that connected with his wrist instead of his bat. The fracture cost him nearly four months, and Jung struggled upon his return, hitting just .248/.278/.366 with middling defense the rest of the way.

Jung’s still young, so the projection systems aren’t overly concerned about another mostly lost season, expecting him to be about league-average overall at third base in 2025. There’s still upside here if he remains healthy, and Jung could very well be a 3-4 WAR player this year, but some caution is warranted.

Still, it wasn’t the loss of Jung that dropped the Rangers from World Series champs to 78-84, as he was more than capably replaced by Josh Smith, who served as the primary third baseman with Jung on the shelf (when he wasn’t chipping in for Corey Seager at shortstop). He’s probably every bit as good an option at third as Jung, and even slightly better if you believe ZiPS, so the Rangers ought to remain confident here if he’s forced into action again.

While the Cubs talked with Alex Bregman before he signed with the Red Sox, the fact that the team did little else to pursue viable alternatives at third must reflect some confidence in Matt Shaw, a 2023 first-round pick. Shaw shot through the minors quite quickly, hitting everywhere he played, and his conversion from the middle infield to third base in 2024 appears to have been quite successful. The projection systems all see his bat as good enough to make him a mid-tier starter at third base in his rookie year. You should avoid the inevitable comparisons to Kris Bryant a decade go, as Shaw doesn’t have that kind of power and wasn’t very aggressive swinging at good pitches, at least after he reached Triple-A (60% zone swing rate vs. 69% big league average), but his prospect report notes that, “he’s tracking like an above-average everyday player and foundational young talent.”

Gage Workman is a terrific defensive player, but he’s a pure backup unless something goes terribly wrong. ZiPS gauged (sorry) Workman as one of the best defensive third basemen in the minors last year, and infield defense has been a priority for the Cubs in recent seasons. While he’s not expected to provide much at the plate, a 140 wRC+ at Double-A last year demonstrates that there’s at least some possibility he won’t be a complete zero offensively.

Justin Turner was brought in as a veteran bat off the bench, but at 40 years old and two years removed from serious playing time at third base, it’s hard to see him getting much time here other than as an emergency option.

A shortstop by trade, Maikel Garcia suffers the misfortune of playing the same position as Bobby Witt Jr. The Royals shifted him to third base in 2023 and Garcia played solid defense, as you might expect from a competent shortstop. The questions here concern his offensive output. He showed some promise in 2023, and hit enough to be an average-ish starter at third, but his batting average cratered in 2024, a dangerous result for a hitter who has almost no power to fall back on.

One thing that Garcia has struggled with is translating his on-base skills from the minors to the big leagues. He’s a very disciplined hitter and makes good contact, but his approach borders on passive. Garcia lays off the bad stuff, but he also lets a lot of the good stuff go by, and he gets into a lot of 0-1 counts because nobody fears getting punished by him. Long-term, Garcia’s best role may be as a supersub type.

Jonathan India is the most interesting alternative here, but the Royals don’t seem inclined to use him to push Garcia into the outfield. Nick Loftin may provide a little more offense, but he lacks Garcia’s glove, and Cavan Biggio’s early promise is a long way off in the rear view mirror.

Four years ago, it looked like Eugenio Suárez was on the verge of washing out of the majors after a mediocre 2020 season and a downright dreadful 2021. But a trade to the Mariners gave his career an impressive second wind, as his bat recovered (a 117 wRC+ in Seattle over two seasons) and he displayed some solid defense. Arizona picked up his contract from the Mariners and Suárez responded with his third straight 3-WAR season.

So why is Suárez so low? At 33 (34 in July), he’s among the oldest starters at the hot corner, and even though third base only boasts a few genuine MVP types, it’s generally a deep position. There’s certainly some risk of a collapse, far more than with an equivalent 27-year-old, and it looked for a time like that’s what was happening last year, as Suárez was dreadful in the first half (.668 OPS) before suddenly transmogrifing into an MVP type in the second (.942 OPS).

Jordan Lawlar is a candidate to eventually replace Suárez, and while Lawlar is a shortstop, the team is committed to Geraldo Perdomo there, and Ketel Marte is going to be even harder to supplant over at second. But Lawlar’s short-term task isn’t displacing a starter but rather getting back to where he was before a 2024 ruined by thumb and hamstring injuries.

Nineteen might not sound so good, but as I write this, third base is one of only two positions where the projections don’t put the White Sox in the bottom five. Miguel Vargas will get the first chance at the job after being picked up last July in the Michael Kopech/Erick Fedde three-team trade. He was absolutely dreadful for the Sox last year, with a wRC+ of 16, a number that looks more like a calculation bug than an actual performance by a major league hitter. His history in the majors isn’t lengthy, but his 82 wRC+ with the Dodgers, while hardly impressive, is far better, and his minor league record was a solid. Now, there are very real questions about who the real Vargas is, but the Sox are a fine position to spend time finding out; there’s nothing that he can do in 2025 that will meaningful improve or worsen the team’s chances of making the playoffs.

If Vargas struggles too much, expect to see a lot of Josh Rojas. I’m not sure that’s a good thing, however; Rojas is a serviceable role player, but he isn’t young and doesn’t have a future in Chicago.

Bryan Ramos has been on the team’s prospect list for quite a while now, but he struggled in 2024, and needs to show he can hit Triple-A pitching before he gets a second extended try in the majors. Chase Meidroth, who was picked up in the Garrett Crochet trade, is a ZiPS favorite, but he could very well start at second base or shortstop, depending how the White Sox look coming out of camp.

I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Angels get a lot more out of third base than this if fortune smiles upon them. Sadly, the fates have shown Yoán Moncada little favor over the course of his career; after tallying 9.8 WAR from 2019 to 2021, he suffered a series of injuries that led to him having to take a pillow contract with the Angels this winter. Moncada’s only 29 (30 in May), and a 5-WAR player may still be hiding in there somewhere, but after three disappointing seasons, you can’t just cross your fingers and expect his health and production to take care of itself.

Luis Rengifo has developed into a solid Swiss Army Knife of a player who can play respectable — though far from spectacular — defense at most positions. He’s even become more of an offensive force than was expected when he was a prospect, with a .273/.323/.431 line over the last three seasons. Like Moncada, Rengifo is a free agent after this season, and could attract significant interest from other teams later this year.

If Moncada proves ineffective or needs to spend time on the IL, the addition of Kevin Newman to back up the middle infield should free up Rengifo to play third base more often. J.D. Davis is an option as well, though he is only on the team as a non-roster invitee.

Considering that the incumbent starter, Ke’Bryan Hayes, hit .233/.283/.290 last year, a middling ranking should be a source of relief rather than indigestion for the Pirates. The projection systems all see Hayes recovering enough of his lost offense to get back to his career averages, which when combined with his potential Gold Glove-worthy defense at third, make him a viable starter. Still, enough time has passed since his impressive 2020 debut that we can probably close the door on the possibility of a big offensive breakout.

Jared Triolo was one of the big surprises of 2023. He was an on-base machine in his rookie campaign, finishing with a .388 OBP in 54 games. Utility-guy-with-good-plate-discipline-having-a-hot-six-weeks was always more likely than him being the reincarnation of Eddie Joost, and he fell off to a 72 wRC+ after opening 2024 as the starting second baseman. Still, as an extremely versatile role player who can draw a walk, he has his uses.

Neither of Adam Frazier or Nick Yorke has played much third professionally, but they could at least theoretically get some time there, depending on who makes the roster next week. Isiah Kiner-Falefa has played more third base than the others, but he’s currently the team’s starting shortstop, for reasons I’m not sure I comprehend.

New York’s third base mix is one of the harder ones to predict. DJ LeMahieu appears to have first dibs on the position on the strength of his history with the Yankees and salary, but he’s currently out with a calf strain. Beyond the injury, there’s a real question whether LeMahieu has anything left in him at age 36 and coming off an injury-filled .204/.269/.259, -0.5 WAR season.

If the Yankees haven’t shown much urgency about moving on from LeMahieu, neither Oswaldo Cabrera nor Oswald Peraza has done much this spring to really force the team’s hand. Peraza, once a legitimate shortstop prospect before Anthony Volpe’s emergence, likely has more upside remaining than Cabrera, and he’s out of options. But Cabrera has had the better spring, and the fact remains that the Yankees liked him enough to give him a lot of starts at third last year.

Pablo Reyes is probably a better offensive player than he’s shown in the majors, but he’s too far back in the pecking order to have much of a chance in New York. Jorbit Vivas is in the same boat; if he gets 300 plate appearances for the Yankees in 2025, something has probably gone terribly wrong for the Bombers.

The expected timeshare of Gio Urshela and Luis Urías represents the rare platoon involving two hitters who bat from the same side of the plate. Urías, a February signing in what was a surprisingly busy offseason for the Athletics, has always been effective at beating up on southpaws. Urshela isn’t the ideal platoon-mate, given his small long-term handedness differential (four points of OPS for his career), but he’s typically more acceptable against righties than Urías is.

U2 isn’t in Sacramento to give the A’s elite production, but rather to provide them with roughly league-average production at a reasonable cost. At two combined wins in the projections and a $3.3 million salary between them, that’s precisely what we expect the A’s to get.

Between Max Schuemann and Darell Hernaiz, the former is more likely to be on the roster as a utility player who will likely get far fewer than the 459 plate appearances he received in 2024. At age 23, it’s better to have Hernaiz getting regular playing time with Triple-A Las Vegas than spend a lot of time sitting on the bench in Sacramento. The most interesting player here might be the “other” Max Muncy, who appears hopelessly blocked at shortstop by Jacob Wilson. If his power continues to develop, I wouldn’t be shocked to see him sweep everyone ahead of him off the depth chart in 2026, or even late this year.

Meh.

When the Mariners re-signed Jorge Polanco to a one-year contract back in February, my colleague Michael Rosen’s piece about the deal was headlined “Mariners Sign Jorge Polanco, Condemn Themselves to Competence.” I don’t think there’s a better way to describe the transaction. Polanco’s .213/.296/.355 line may look a bit worse than it actually was because of T-Mobile Park, but that doesn’t mean it was actually good, even if you give him a lot of extra leeway because of his knee and hamstring injuries.

We predict Polanco to comfortably beat his 0.3 WAR from last year, but this is shockingly unambitious for a team with a real chance to win the AL West. Polanco will probably play better defense at third than he did at second the last few years, but that’s simply not enough.

Nobody on the roster is likely to be an obvious upgrade on Polanco, either. At 37, Donovan Solano is a utility guy in the twilight of his career, not someone who can push Polanco, and Dylan Moore will likely be over at second base most of the time. Given the lack of upside, I’d have liked to have seen the Mariners at least try something bold. Give Austin Shenton a few months to attempt to prove his bat can play in the majors. Or just say “to hell with it” and stick Ben Williamson there — at least you know the defense will be good.

Entering the fourth year of a six-year, $70 million contract extension, Ryan McMahon has an iron grip on the third base job in Colorado. McMahon made his first All-Star Game in 2024, on the back of a legitimately excellent .272/.353/.447, 2.2 WAR first-half performance. However, he struggled during the second half, playing below replacement level for the last two and a half months of the season.

McMahon’s glove at third base is excellent, enough to wonder if he might have been most valuable as a second baseman, if the team had had the stomach to leave him there. At the hot corner, his offense is run-of-the-mill, without much there beyond his moderate power. He’s a poor contact hitter in the park that most rewards putting the ball in play, and among the 34 third basemen with at least 2,000 plate appearances since McMahon’s debut, his 71.8% contact rate is the third worst, ahead of only Miguel Sanó and J.D. Davis. A .240 batting average is common these days, but it shouldn’t be for a good hitter at Coors Field given that it plays as far more of a batting average park than a home run park these days.

There’s no threat to McMahon’s starting job in 2025. Kyle Karros might pose a threat someday if he hits in the high minors, but as evidenced by him not appearing on this chart, that’s a few years away at minimum.

For a stretch this winter, it looked like Alex Bregman might be Detroit’s next third baseman, but he signed with the Red Sox, leaving the Tigers with the same options they had last year. Jace Jung was the obvious choice here if you believe the metrics, but the Tigers have seemed underwhelmed by his defense, and he had a terrible spring, resulting in him being optioned to Triple-A. While Jung will get another chance and probably has the most upside of the likely third base candidates, he’s not getting that shot immediately.

Jung’s demotion makes this an area of uncertainty for the Tigers. Assuming he does get back to the majors this year, he is likely to split time with one of the several role players the team has used at third base. Andy Ibáñez is a natural platoon partner for Jung, with a .799 career OPS in the majors against lefties. With Jung in the minors for now, I’d expect Ibáñez to be paired with someone better against righties. Zach McKinstry is the most obvious candidate, but the Tigers shuttle him all over the diamond, and they may not be interested in keeping him pinned down as a platoon third baseman.

The Tigers have occasionally used Javier Báez at third the last couple of weeks, so he’s an option to take part of the job, as is Trey Sweeney depending on how the defensive configurations shake out. Further complicating matters, Matt Vierling could see some time here when he’s back from a shoulder strain, at least once Parker Meadows has returned from his injury.

TLDR: I dunno!

Among the upper level prospects, Hao-Yu Lee is an interesting option and has been getting reps at third base in spring training. Given a 141 wRC+ as a 21-year-old in Double-A ball last year, he certainly merits watching. If Jung doesn’t progress, none of the various role players are likely long-term solutions at third base, meaning that Lee could see a real path to playing time soon. But let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves.

Connor Norby’s been on the edge of prospect lists for a while now, but was he hopeless blocked in Baltimore by the myriad better options the O’s possessed. Norby got significant playing time after heading to Miami in the Trevor Rogers trade, and with a .247/.315/.445 line with seven homers in 36 games, he did enough to make him the obvious first choice for the offense-starved Marlins. Norby’s defense was decidedly unimpressive, but given that he was an adequate second baseman and hadn’t played third base regularly since college, I wouldn’t worry too much just yet. Norby’s ranking suffers from the fact that third base is a deep position at the moment.

Graham Pauley was having a moment a few years ago after a breakout 2023 season in the minors, but he crashed back to earth last year after his Triple-A debut. As such, expectations have been dampened considerably, and he’s mainly Norby’s backup by default.

Eric Wagaman’s a mildly interesting minor leaguer given his power, but he’s too old to be considered a serious prospect. He snuck in a decent sized cup of coffee from the Angels last year, long after anyone was watching the team, but his role will be to try and show he can hit in Triple-A, and possibly displace Pauley as Norby’s backup sometime this season.

A large percentage of the position players on Cincinnati’s 40-man roster appear to be middling third basemen, but the team has yet to figure out how to amalgamize them all into a single good one. New manager Terry Francona has been hinting at a Jeimer Candelario/Gavin Lux platoon at third base, though not necessarily a strict one. Lux has struggled against lefties in the majors, but ZiPS projects him with a .267/.344/.410 line against righties, and it may be the role that best suits him given the entrenched middle infield of Elly De La Cruz and Matt McLain.

I was skeptical of the Candelario signing, but he was even worse than I imagined, hitting .225/.279/.429 while shuttling between third base, first base, and designated hitter. If Candelario struggles or ends up playing more elsewhere, Santiago Espinal may be a more orthodox platoon-mate for Lux; he has a .777 career OPS in the majors against lefties.

Noelvi Marte’s far too young to give up on, but 2024 was an unmitigated disaster. He started off with an 80-game suspension for a positive test for Boldenone, and then after being given an open shot at the big league third base job when he returned, he proceeded to put up a .549 OPS in 66 games. He could very well work his way into playing time later in the season and even seize the job someday, but first he’s going to need to re-establish his credentials at Triple-A Louisville.

The Brewers got surprisingly good production out of third base last year thanks to the emergence of Joey Ortiz, who they acquired from the Orioles in the Corbin Burnes trade. But Ortiz has been moved back to his original position, shortstop, to replace the departed Willy Adames, and Milwaukee did not seek a replacement this winter.

While thrift no doubt played a large role in Milwaukee’s thinking here, some belief in Oliver Dunn’s upside was probably a part of the decision to give him a chance to be the starter. Dunn’s prospect days are behind him, but he could still emerge as a late bloomer. He has been hindered by the loss of the majority of three developmental seasons due to the cancellation of the minor league season in 2020, hamstring and abdominal injuries in 2022, and a back injury that prematurely ended his 2024, but in a healthy season in 2023, he hit 21 homers and put up a 148 wRC+ for Double-A Reading. A knock against Dunn being a Ken Phelps All-Star is the fact that he was a 25-year-old in Double-A; his 104 plate appearances in Milwaukee last year were also unimpressive, as was his 69% contact rate.

Middle infielder Caleb Durbin is next up in the queue. He’s a couple years younger than Dunn and can draw some walks, but he also lacks Dunn’s power. Vinny Capra and Andrew Monasterio remain in the mix, as does Tyler Black, but the Brewers clearly look at him as more of a 1B/DH type than a third baseman.

The Washington Nationals are forming an impressive offensive nucleus, such that you can start to see the contours of what a return to contention might look like. That foundation doesn’t include a third baseman, however, and Washington appears to be going with a pure stopgap option in veteran Paul DeJong. DeJong led White Sox hitters in WAR last year, though that probably says more about the 41-win Sox than DeJong. DeJong plays good defense and can run into enough pitches to put up some solid home run totals, but he does little else. There aren’t many players who push a team towards the playoffs with a .269 on-base percentage, and DeJong is not one of the rare exceptions.

José Tena remains in the picture, but a poor spring appears to have put him firmly behind DeJong in terms of playing time. While he hit well in the high minors for the Guardians, once he got to Cleveland, neither his bat nor his glove made a convincing case for him getting the full-time job at third. Still, if the Nats fall out of the Wild Card race, it would make far more sense for him to get playing time over DeJong. Trey Lipscomb was originally expected to fight with Tena for the job at third, but his lack of offensive upside makes him a less interesting option.

Amed Rosario is on the team as the veteran emergency option, and while ZiPS likes Brady House’s defense, none of the projections think he’s up to the task of hitting enough to be a viable starter at third.