2025 ZiPS Projections: Los Angeles Dodgers

For the 21st consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Batters

They’re the Dodgers, so as usual, they have big stars, good depth, and a truckload of versatility at most positions. Is that ’nuff said?

A 7-WAR projection for a DH is, of course, bananas, and ZiPS actually has a 40/40 season as the average Shohei Ohtani projection, not an aspirational goal. Naturally, he’s got a great shot at going 50/50 again, though I have to wonder if, now that he’s reached that milestone and will be back to pitching, the Dodgers will insist on him being more conservative with his baserunning.

Really, there just aren’t many surprises here. ZiPS sees the left field situation as merely OK as it stands right now, with every other position better than that. A lot of this may be out of date in a few weeks (news of Michael Conforto’s signing broke as I was writing this, for instance), but the Dodgers could theoretically roll with the lineup they have and be just fine. How exactly Mookie Betts, Tommy Edman, and Chris Taylor end up being deployed is still a bit TBD, though it does appear that Plan A will result in Betts getting a lot of time at shortstop again.

ZiPS expects something of a bounce-back season from James Outman, though it’s hard to say just how much rope a team like the Dodgers will give him. Other than noting how good the Dodgers are everywhere, the lineup is boring in the best kind of way. It’s a bunch of terrific players still mostly in the prime of their careers, most of whom will be good-to-great in 2025.

If there’s a weakness — and I may be stretching the definition of the word — it’s that ZiPS sees fewer hitters than usual in the high minors who are straining to hit the majors, at least fewer compared to the Dodgers’ standards. ZiPS likes Dalton Rushing just fine, though more as a catcher, which isn’t a positional problem for the team, and it already sees Alex Freeland as a legitimate major league starter. But most of the really interesting prospects are either pitchers or developmental hitters in the very low minors who are kind of out of the ZiPS wheelhouse.

Pitchers

Los Angeles’ rotation of tremendously talented arms with injury risk almost fell apart this year, as the Dodgers struggled late in the season to actually get five of their 12 or 13 interesting starters in uniform simultaneously. But there are no style points in championships and almost falling apart was all they needed, as the team rolled the Yankees in the World Series.

As I noted in his transaction writeup, Blake Snell does a lot to stabilize the rotation, and if the Dodgers can get 700 innings out of a combination of him, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, Ohtani, and Tony Gonsolin, I’m not sure any NL West team can seriously threaten for the division. That said, there still are a lot of unknowns here. The exact timetable for Ohtani’s return to pitching is coming up “ask me later” on the Magic 8-Ball, with the rehab from the injury he suffered in Game 2 of the World Series potentially complicating matters. At the very least, he’s unlikely to be ready for the team’s opening series in Japan. Plus, it would be shocking if the Dodgers weren’t in the mix for Roki Sasaki or other starters, and while he’s not under contract right now, as far as I’m aware, Clayton Kershaw will basically be a Dodger whenever he’s ready (he’s currently recovering from toe and knee surgery).

The bullpen projects as one of the best in baseball. Projecting Michael Kopech as only a reliever drops his projected ERA to 3.39, making him one of eight relievers on the depth chart (including the recently re-signed Blake Treinen) projected for an ERA under 3.50 in such a role. ZiPS is still a bit skeptical of Anthony Banda (though it nevertheless has him with an ERA below 4.00 as a reliever) and it’s unsure just how much Giovanny Gallegos has left. Luckily, the Dodgers have one of the best track records around of squeezing solid bullpen outings of almost anyone; I think a block of cheddar cheese might be above replacement level out of the Dodgers ‘pen.

The Dodgers are the early favorite to enter 2025 as the team ZiPS projects to win the most games. Shocking, right?

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time. The final team projections may differ considerably from our Depth Chart playing time.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2025 due to injury, and players who were released in 2024. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Norwegian Ukulele Dixieland Jazz band that only covers songs by The Smiths, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.11.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. It is important to remember that ZiPS is agnostic about playing time, and has no information about, for example, how quickly a team will call up a prospect or what veteran has fallen into disfavor.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by misinformation, a non-pragmatic reality, or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter or on BlueSky.

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