32 Thoughts: NCAA decision opens door to chaos and options for players
In this week’s edition of 32 Thoughts, Elliotte Friedman looks at the fallout from the NCAA decision and how it will open door for players.
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If all the statements made in the aftermath of the NCAA’s decision to make CHL players eligible for Division I hockey, the one that stood out to me came from WHL Commissioner Dan Near:
“We are thrilled that upon graduation from the WHL, players will have additional options as they pursue the next step in their personal and hockey journey.”
First, Near is 100 per cent correct that no player should have avenues cut off if they play one second of a CHL exhibition game at age 16. That’s insane and punitive. I’m glad those days are over.
Second, these statements are carefully written, every word scrutinized many times. Near and the WHL are making it clear that, in their eyes, no one should be leaving their teams until their eligibility is complete. I don’t know if that’s enforceable, but the intent is obvious.
Bartlett Hockey, an agency led by long-time agent Steve Bartlett with sons Brian and Scott, released a statement Thursday including their thoughts on this topic.
“Based on current CHL contract language, we do not believe a CHL team can prevent a player from leaving to go to the NCAA during the term of their contract but the player will likely forfeit some or all of their education package if they do so.”
Brief history in case you don’t follow NCAA sports: For a long time, schools and coaches held power over players. Coaches had freedom to move, players were much more restricted. Transferring meant — in the vast majority of cases — sitting out a year. Pay-for-play was banned and chased under the table. The players started challenging this structure in court, kept winning, and forced change.
Now, the pendulum swings wildly the other way. Every year, more and more players are jumping into the “transfer portal,” switching schools in search of better on-ice, on-field or on-court opportunities. Or, thanks to new Name/Image/Likeness (NIL) payments — a better payday.
There is one caveat for Canadians: You’re on a student visa if playing NCAA sports in the United States, making you legally ineligible to make money on NIL deals signed there. That’s American Law, not an NCAA issue. Most famous case: current Memphis Grizzlie Zach Edey, the two-time men’s basketball Player of the Year at Purdue.
“I feel like I’m missing out on a lot of money,” he said at last year’s Final Four, adding he hoped that, eventually, the law would be changed.
It is chaotic. Legendary Alabama football coach Nick Saban retired, admitting these changes weighed on him. Geno Auriemma, who’s won 11 national championships as Connecticut’s women’s basketball coach, said last month: “Do we keep the charade of student-athlete, or do we call it what it is — semi-professional, pay-for-play sports?…How about we teach kids how to make a commitment and stick to it? Let’s make it a business.”
NCAA Division I hockey coaches have dealt with this reality. But the CHL wasn’t affected, because it knew its players weren’t eligible to travel that path. Now they can, and everyone braces for chaos. Wednesday night, Arash Madani and I went to a hockey fundraiser at the University of Western Ontario. One of the former players talked about the possibility of playing in the OHL, then going to the NCAA, then coming back to finish in U Sports.
Adapt or die. The WHL statement is an attempt to hold the line — but the floodgates have opened, and no one knows where the water will go.
THOUGHTS
1. There are so many other things to wonder about this, including: What will the CHL, the USHL and the NCAAs hockey conferences look like in five or 10 years? A few NHL executives believe the CHL will consider expanding into the United States, particularly in places like Massachusetts. There already are all sorts of rumours and reports about potential USHL franchise defections to the Canadian league. I hope this also leads to more NCAA schools playing hockey — although that’s more of a money question than a player availability question. (Tennessee State is scheduled to begin play in 2025-26.) The NHL has stayed out of this, but as part of CBA negotiations with the NHLPA, will have to decide how or if this changes things like draft rights. Currently, teams retain rights of players selected from the USHL/NCAA for four years and the CHL for two. One of my junior-connected buddies wondered if Medicine Hat gets the 2026 Memorial Cup to discourage any NCAA teams from trying to poach high-level prospect Gavin McKenna. There’s a lot to unpack.
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2. Jonathan Lekkerimaki’s five-goal-in-seven games start at AHL Abbotsford has the Canucks thinking his time is coming sooner than later, which was bad news for Daniel Sprong. His lineup spot was already tenuous, and there was a drop pass in the third period of Thursday’s win over Los Angeles that probably caused Rick Tocchet to eat a full roll of Tums. The interesting thing about his trade to Seattle is that the Canucks could have waived him, and there are only six teams ahead of the Kraken in priority. That tells us: Seattle wanted to make sure it got him, and the Canucks — who accepted nothing in return — made sure he got there. That’s doing someone a favour.
3. Listening to Barry Trotz’s viral 102.5 The Game radio interview in Nashville, it was misinterpreted a bit. As poorly as they’ve started — and it’s crazy how many Predators are playing poorly — a massive teardown isn’t feasible. For one thing, Nashville made it very clear last summer that it’s not interested in a lengthy rebuild, so ripping apart the roster to start again is not in the franchise’s DNA. There are certain guys you’re not trading (Filip Forsberg, Roman Josi) and several more with no-move protection. AHL Milwaukee is 8-1 to start the season, with a couple of 20-year-olds — Joakim Kemell and Reid Schaefer — just under a point per game. That’s a lot to ask, and I’m not convinced Trotz thinks it’s a great idea, but he’s thinking about trying them to see if it provides a spark. Zachary L’Heureux, 21, got his shot, and he’s had his moments. You notice him out there, that’s for sure. So when Trotz mentions rebuilding, he’s referring to those types of players getting a chance sooner than expected.
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4. That’s worked in the short term on Long Island. The Islanders were looking for left-shot defenders with three out injured. Finding nothing they liked, they turned to 2022 fourth-rounder Isaiah George. Former Raptors coach Darrell Walker had a great line: “One man’s injury is another man’s opportunity.” George debuted with 15:41 and 23:59 in a couple of wins. In both games, he was out there in important late-game minutes. He’s a player.
5. Have wondered if head coach Andrew Brunette’s next attempt at jolting the lineup is a big-name benching. He’s made changes around the periphery, eventually you move to something major.
6. A lot more chatter than usual, according to a couple of GMs, but we’ll see if that actually translates into anything. Trotz continues to look for a centre, but that’s not easy. When you’re struggling, you get thrown anvils, not life-preservers.
7. Looking around: Edmonton and Nashville. Toronto’s got its roster crunch, not news, but that will force decisions. One possibility: Philippe Myers accepts a conditioning stint because he hasn’t played, which at least makes roster room for Jani Hakanpaa. The Sprong move is a reminder of Vancouver’s keeping on top of what’s out there, and Jim Rutherford/Patrik Allvin prefer to strike early.
8. Boston is a little tougher to figure. They’ve looked around, as you would expect, but they’ve tried to be patient. They indicated it was important to see how last weekend went, and the answer was “perfect,” with back-to-back shutouts. So, things cooled down. For 48 hours. They went off the rails in Toronto before grabbing a roller-coaster win against Calgary. They are really trying to let this group work out its problems.
9. Buffalo GM Kevyn Adams aggressively worked the phones, but made it clear he wouldn’t subtract or ruin chances for a playoff spot. That didn’t stop teams from asking about the Bowen Byrams or the Dylan Cozens — you can’t blame anyone for trying — but that’s not what the Sabres wish to do. Big week with impressive wins over Ottawa and the Rangers. The Senators and Sabres are like the Spiderman pointing meme. So much talent, so much potential. We’re begging for them to do it more often.
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10. It didn’t get a lot of attention, but Commissioner Gary Bettman promoted four people on Thursday. The name most may recognize is Steve Mayer, who’s been on the podcast twice. He’s now President of NHL Content & Events. Also: Steve McArdle to COO, Keith Wachtel to President of NHL Business and Julie Grand to Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly’s Chief of Staff. This is purely my opinion, but among these names are potential clues to what the league will look like in a post-Bettman, post-Daly world.
11. The November GM meeting coincides with Hockey Hall of Fame induction ceremonies. It’s not as important as the three-day post-trade deadline sunny-weather shindig — more of a multi-hour check-in laying the groundwork for that March meeting. One thing I do think will come up next week: where does everyone want to go with video review and the Situation Room? I wouldn’t expect any in-season changes, but more of a philosophical discussion about where things are and where they should go. For example: there’s been some talk about whether or not the Situation Room should help in non-replay situations where on-ice officials didn’t see something, like a player who deserves a penalty for something that happens in a scrum. But that’s a small droplet in a bigger philosophical pond. It’s been a wild week on the replay front, probably a good time for this.
12. No doubt there will be a conversation about Tampa’s 1-0 goal in Winnipeg last Sunday that riled up Connor Hellebuyck, Scott Arniel (and probably Kevin Cheveldayoff; I would have loved a wiretap into his phone). That one fooled me, too, I didn’t think there was any way it would stand. One theory on why it counted: there was so much carnage in the crease that it was felt some of the Jets were just as guilty in preventing Hellebuyck from stopping the puck. But we’ll see what everyone thinks. I was reminded the other day the standard for these reviews is not to overrule on-ice officials unless they are “dead wrong.” In my search to make sense of everything, I am trying to see things through that lens.
13. Do not forget Drew Doughty in your Four Nations mockups. Team Canada’s brain trust is closely monitoring his recovery timeline and was asking for information the moment he was hurt (end of September). Back then, the feeling was he’d be back in about three months, give or take.
14. The NHL and NHLPA did not ask for an “expedited grievance” regarding Ryan Johansen. Plain English: no one is in a hurry to have it adjudicated. So we might not know the outcome for a bit.
15. Does Juraj Slafkovsky have a goal total in mind for 2024-25? “Oh yeah. Always.” Is it above or below 35? He smiles. “It’s around there.” He’s at one now, but prediction is he heats up and makes a run at 30.
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16. From podcast co-host Kyle Bukauskas: there were 59 games in October 2023, decided by more than three goals. In October 2024, that number went to 70. No wonder coaches look so distraught.
17. That’s why it fits the NHL’s average save percentage (now .899) and is on track for the lowest number since .898 in 1995-96. One thing to watch: from 2007-19, the numbers went up after October every season except 2011-12, where it dropped by one percentage point. Some of those increases were incremental, others more significant: .905 to .910 in 2007-08; .906-.912 in 2009-10; .909-.913 in 2017-18. Then, it suddenly swung the other way, including .914-.906 in 2021-22. This year is already up from .896. I don’t have a good theory on why, the change. But I’m curious to see if it holds.
18. This is quite possibly the dumbest note I’ve ever included, but there’s one stall in the visitor’s dressing room of Toronto’s Scotiabank Arena that’s tight against a wall. There’s not a lot of legroom as inches in front of it sits one of the larger goalie stalls. I’ve never seen a veteran player jammed into that corner. Until Pavel Buchnevich. Even some of the other Blues laughed. “He doesn’t like the centre of the room,” one shrugged.
19. Frequent blog readers (my condolences) are aware of my Nov. 1 stat. During full seasons in the salary-cap era, just 10 of 70 teams four points out of the playoffs after games on Nov. 1 recovered to make it. This year’s challengers: Chicago and Nashville. Last year, teams went 1-3. In: Edmonton. Out: Calgary, Pittsburgh and San Jose.
20. Updates from some things previously posted: Initially, I wrote that Macklin Celebrini’s first NHL goal — which came at 7:01 of his first game — was the second-fast ever, behind Mario Lemieux. A couple of alert Sabres fans pointed out that Danny Gare scored 18 seconds into his first game, a 9-5 win over Boston on Oct. 10, 1974. Did not mean to obscure the talented two-time 50-goal scorer. Also: on the subject of goalies who assisted on someone’s first NHL goal, Kelly Hrudey got one on current New Jersey GM Tom Fitzgerald’s first of 139. That was Feb. 5, 1989.
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21. This is one of the best weekends on the NHL calendar: Hall of Fame inductions. In case you missed it, the Hall is looking for a new President and CEO. Jeff Denomme, in that position for 39 years, is retiring in June. Application process: phcap.ca/hhof.
