32 Thoughts: The NHL is heading into uncharted territory
How a rising cap will re-shape the way we look at contracts and how they’re negotiated; how Dustin Wolf is changing Calgary’s outlook; and will Canada hire a full-time world juniors coach?
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• Why “percentage of cap” is a negotiating strategy to watch in the years ahead
• Early takeaways from Rantanen-Necas and Miller-Chytil trades
• Checking in on other trade rumblings throughout the NHL
The NHL is entering a new age. The hockey version of Captain Jean-Luc Picard: going where it has never gone before.
Everything we understood is changing. Contract comparables, economics, you name it. And if it is confusing for you and me, imagine what it’s like for the people who really need to make these decisions on the fly — one month from a trade deadline.
Brief history lesson: when the NHL/NHLPA did their COVID CBA, there were two options. One was “low escrow” — less withheld from player paycheques, but it meant the cap would stay lower for a longer time. The other was paying back their debt faster, allowing the ceiling a quicker rise. But that meant higher holdbacks.
There is no phrase players hate more than escrow, so they avoided it like the plague.
Back then, no one knew where we were going. How long before fans returned to arenas? Would revenues recover? Everyone was on edge.
Thankfully, the worst-case scenarios evaporated. Depending on who you talk to, if the 50/50 split that existed in 2019 was still in place, the cap would be anywhere from $102-$105 million now. With record-high revenue projections, we’re headed into uncharted territory: $95.5 million in 2025-26, $104 million in 2026-27 and $113.5 million in 2027-28. The memo outlining these numbers indicated next season is set, but the following two can be adjusted. The world is more volcanic than stable, so you never know where things are going. But several sources believe that if the current path continues, those limits will go slightly higher.
The league, overall, is healthy. There are always worries (regional television, Canadian dollar) but the good outweighs the bad. Tampa Bay’s sale price was just under $2 billion and minority-stake franchise valuations are strong. It’s very interesting that the NHL and the union agreed to “de-link” the cap from exact revenues for another three seasons — keeping escrow low was a motivating factor for the players — but if numbers dictate that’s how much they are to be paid, that’s what they’ve earned.
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At the same time, not only is the overall player share larger than ever, so are the individual rewards. It is not exactly apples to apples, but, in the final season of the pre-cap system, Peter Forsberg and Jaromir Jagr each earned $11 million. There were times contract structure allowed some to earn more in individual seasons — Brad Richards, Shea Weber, John Tavares among them — but no one did it on an overall AAV basis until Connor McDavid’s $12.5-million extension in 2018. Now we’ve gone from McDavid to Nathan MacKinnon ($12.6 million) to Auston Matthews ($13.25 million) to Leon Draisaitl ($14 million).
Objects arriving faster than they appear: Mikko Rantanen, Kirill Kaprizov, Mitch Marner, Cale Makar and McDavid, once again. The bar will raise, multiple times. I never have a problem with anyone in life — player, manager, business-owner, blue-collar, white-collar — negotiating their best deal. Sometimes you have the hammer, sometimes you get hammered. You can’t fault anyone for trying.
Does a player like Dylan Cozens become even more valuable because he’s locked in for five more seasons at $7.1 million? You have certainty on his salary. Does trading for an RFA like Bowen Byram or extending a UFA-to-be like Sam Bennett become even more complicated? What was true two weeks ago may not be true now.
The upcoming 4 Nations break will give GMs a chance to breathe, to address their own situations. They’ll have a good idea of their negotiation situations by the end of the event.
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When Marc Bergevin became Montreal’s GM, he explained one of his core philosophies: know when you are ready to hit home runs.
He worked for the Chicago Blackhawks in 2006, when they had the opportunity to trade for Chris Pronger. They declined, the right decision because the draft pick that turned into Patrick Kane would have gone to Edmonton.
“Hit singles,” he said, “until you are good enough to hit home runs.”
Several years into his tenure, Bergevin modified his outlook.
“Those kinds of players aren’t available often. If they are, you have to look at it.”
Next year will still be tight for many, but it won’t be long until almost everyone has room to swing their biggest bat. There is potential for bidding wars.
Maybe.
Days before Rantanen’s earth-shattering move, one executive said: “No way Colorado can trade him, can they? You can’t replace those guys.”
The Avalanche did it anyway.
Clearly, they are going to pay Makar, which affected what they were willing to do with Rantanen, even though he’s a stud. Roster construction/cap flexibility concerns are real. But the trade revealed something else.
While players are excited about the rising financial wave, teams are extremely wary. Maybe you’re a Canadian club collecting revenues with a weakened dollar, paying players in American cash. In today’s dollars, US$95.5 million is CDN$140 million. Maybe you believed you’ve squeezed as much as you can from your building or fanbase. Some will be very happy to flex financial muscle. Others aren’t so sure.
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It’s tough to tell what’s real and what’s noise. This is competition, and many teams are consistently close to the cap. They want to win and there’s fan/media/internal pressure to do what it takes. Rebuilding teams will drop to the floor, with others saying, “We’ll spend later in the season if we’re in it.” Even the most reluctant, however, will find it extremely hard to avoid the pull to the top when their window opens.
What is true is that teams are uncomfortable.
There still are major variables to be introduced. Commissioner Gary Bettman is negotiating a new Canadian television deal, and he never aims low. There will be expansion. Those will bring financial spikes, potentially easing ownership concerns.
Last weekend’s astonishing Luka Doncic deal made me think more about Rantanen. Two tremendous players. Both teams had the ability to pay them (Doncic on a much larger scale), and both opted not to.
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32 Thoughts: The Podcast
Hockey fans already know the name, but this is not the blog. From Sportsnet, 32 Thoughts: The Podcast with NHL Insider Elliotte Friedman and Kyle Bukauskas is a weekly deep dive into the biggest news and interviews from the hockey world.
The Avalanche are an extremely well-run organization with extremely wealthy ownership. Look at the choice they made. They aren’t finished with this renovation, so it’s hard to give a final grade, but they moved on from one of the 10 best players in the sport.
MacKinnon-Makar-Rantanen. Those three make you a Stanley Cup contender every season. The GM who traded him even called Rantanen a superstar. Yet he basically said, “The numbers don’t work for us. We’re not going there.” They made this choice before knowing exact cap numbers, but I’m not sure things would be different if they did.
Who else is thinking like this? Who else is saying, “Sooner or later, we’ll be doing it, too?”
Everything is different. New economics, on the ice and off. A better idea of the landscape, but more changes coming. Two quieter weeks to map strategy right before the trade deadline. Where are we going, together?
32 THOUGHTS
1. Another area to watch: contract negotiations around “percentage of cap.” Players/agents have made it their strategy, and it’s a smart one. When he signed, McDavid’s percentage was 15.72, which remains highest overall. (Draisaitl, MacKinnon and Matthews are the others above 15.) This tactic has spread from superstars to everyone up and down the roster.
One exec said last week that negotiations with a solid, appreciated player on his team — but not one of their top guys — halted because this tactic took things where the organization wouldn’t go. Like most contract conversations, it comes down to leverage, but teams will try to limit percentage arguments to top players. We’ll see.
2. Ryan Hartman appealed his 10-game suspension. Commissioner Bettman is next on the agenda on the appeal, and he rarely decreases a sentence. A recent exception is Jason Spezza, reduced from six to four games in 2021. But he had a clean record. If Bettman keeps it above six, Hartman can go to an independent arbitrator — where Dennis Wideman and Tom Wilson received reductions.
Unique to this is the 4 Nations break, as this process doesn’t usually happen fast enough to get a player back in the lineup before the original suspension is over. Generally, the NHLPA isn’t crazy about appealing these if they don’t think they can win. One thing I heard about this situation: on-ice officials warned Hartman several times during the Ottawa game that he was in danger of losing control.
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3. The Penguins practice Thursday. We’ll see if Sidney Crosby skates. If he doesn’t, I’m slightly worried.
4. I exist because of Canadian/American soldiers (and others) in the Second World War, so anthem booing is not for me. Canadian Flag Day is Feb. 15, and 2025 is the 60th anniversary of the red-and-white Maple Leaf. That night is Canada vs. USA in Montreal. Apparently, there are plans to hand out 20,000 flags at the game. Gonna be nuts.
5. As expected, the Canucks quickly extended Marcus Pettersson at six years, $33 million. That was not going to be a difficult negotiation. The left-side jam made Carson Soucy available. Not an easy year for him, but I like Soucy — who played his weak side during Tuesday’s 3-0 win over Colorado. Very good for Vancouver in last year’s playoffs, and effective when Seattle beat Colorado in 2023. He can help someone. Calgary makes sense (he’s from Alberta), but the Flames want to see some Ilya Solovyov.
6. Watching the Rangers and Canucks post-J.T. Miller makes you realize how much better off everyone is now that this saga is over. No more uncertainty, no more stress. Miller is a different, more energized player in New York, and you can see how happy his new teammates — particularly Vincent Trocheck — are to have him.
With their two trades, the Canucks look like a different team. Remodelled defence; the entire group quicker both on their skates and moving the puck. For different reasons than Miller, Filip Chytil needed his own fresh start. The Canucks outwrestled Western rivals Edmonton and Vegas (among others) for Drew O’Connor, and will attempt to extend him, too.
The Athletic’s Arthur Staple reported New York was unwilling to part with 2023 90th overall selection Drew Fortescue, a defenceman at NCAA Boston College. Vancouver will be happy with Victor Mancini, but Fortescue was an original target. Rangers GM Chris Drury knows him very well, as his son, Luke, was a minor-hockey teammate for several seasons.
7. Colorado made a run at Miller, but it never got close enough to threaten the Rangers deal. That’s why Casey Mittelstadt’s name is out there. Believe New Jersey, Ottawa and Toronto poked around, but not with much traction.
8. The Devils, Senators and Maple Leafs also were among those who went hard for Brandon Saad, as did Tampa Bay. Can’t fault Saad for picking Vegas, despite the team’s current struggles. The Golden Knights will be just fine.
9. Will be interesting to see if Pittsburgh keeps that top-13 protected Rangers 2025 pick (unprotected for 2026). A couple teams were disappointed to not snare it. There’s value. Everyone knows what the Penguins want — controllable young talent, preferably in the NHL or close.
10. Toronto is seeing how high it can go at centre. Won’t be easy, and might not be able to shoot as high as a 2C, but the Leafs are looking. First-round picks matter, and they don’t have one in June.
11. My Rantanen theory: Carolina’s brain trust will do the math. Let’s assume that, on the open market, he’s getting seven years at $14 million per. That’s $98 million. The Hurricanes will beat that total with the eighth year available to them, so we’re talking nine digits. Maybe they offer deferment to keep the cap hit a little lower, but that didn’t work with the same agency (Octagon) and Draisaitl.
Owner Tom Dundon has talked before about having a true star — one of the league’s best players — on his roster, in his market. What it would do for interest, ticket sales, etc. Now he’s got one. GM Eric Tulsky pointed out they are in a much better cap situation than with Jake Guentzel a year ago, but the organization learned one other important lesson: don’t wait. Carolina eventually agreed to what the winger wanted, but it wasn’t until right before the draft. By then, Guentzel decided to hit the market.
That won’t happen this time. The Hurricanes are eager to give this a real run. How high will they go? Will it be enough? And, most importantly, what happens if it isn’t done by March 7? All questions we await to see answered.
12. The Rantanen deal could have been a four-way. The Hurricanes called around to see if anyone else would get involved. I assume that was to eat some of Taylor Hall’s salary.
13. Rantanen’s got two points in five games with the Hurricanes, though he’s had some great chances. It gets forgotten in all the hype, but there are always adjustments. A lefty, he’s used to playing with two incredible righties: MacKinnon and Makar. His new centre, Sebastian Aho, is a lefty. When Aho was out a game sick, Rantanen scored his first Carolina goal on a terrific play by temporarily inserted righty Jack Roslovic.
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Aho’s a great player and they’ll figure it out, but it’s one of those neat things to watch. (I did see righty Brent Burns replace Shayne Gostisbehere on the power play; the lefty was there when I first watched after the trade.)
Martin Necas likes to carry the puck; the Avalanche have some pretty high-level guys who like that, too. He’s got the skill and IQ to learn where to go for MacKinnon, but he is a different partner for Colorado’s No. 1 centre than the physically imposing Rantanen.
“You have that duo,” Minnesota’s Marcus Foligno said last week. “Now, you take one away. It’s weird … I always respected Rantanen because he carries a lot of the load. I don’t think (everyone) realizes how good he is and how much he helps out MacKinnon. Necas is a really good player, but it’s going to be weird not seeing Rantanen and MacKinnon coming over the boards together.”
Necas is averaging 22:43 ice-time in his first six Colorado games. No player is going to complain about that, but it’s an adjustment from the 18 in Carolina.
14. No one thinks Dallas is done. Depending on how they handle Miro Heiskanen’s injury status — and nobody’s going to be rushing him back for the regular season — the Stars still have about $5 million in LTIR space. Don’t be surprised if they aren’t finished remodelling the right side of their defence.
15. The Sabres have won four in a row, but we will see if there is any long-term fallout from Sunday, when Stefan Noesen’s hit on Tage Thompson went unaddressed. One player on another team said he heard from a friend on Buffalo that there was talk of the leadership group and/or alternate captaincies being switched over what didn’t happen. What a gamer, Dennis Gilbert. Fought Mathieu Olivier three seconds into Tuesday’s game to make everyone look better. Not easy.
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16. If he’s available, can see Tampa Bay lusting after Alex Tuch. They wouldn’t be the only ones.
17. In addition to Olivier, the Blue Jackets will try to extend Dante Fabbro, who has found a nice role there.
18. A three-game Wednesday means massive scout concentration, with plenty of attention at Edmonton/Chicago and Montreal/Los Angeles. There was interest in Connor Murphy a year ago, but injuries ruined his season. He’s healthy now, so plenty of eyes on him — along with Ryan Donato and Seth Jones. A lot of focus on Jake Evans in Montreal, but do not discount Joel Armia. His play is not going unnoticed.
19. The NBA’s Utah Jazz were the middleman in the massive Doncic deal. ESPN’s Tim MacMahon reported that Jazz president Danny Ainge didn’t know Doncic nor Anthony Davis were involved “until about an hour before it was completed … But by then it was too late to do much about it.”
Kind of funny it happened a week after the Blackhawks were criticized for not getting more out of eating part of Rantanen’s salary. I asked around about this: should the Blackhawks have changed their minds, or asked for more? “How do you feel about breaking your word?” was the general response.
One thing everyone understood: GM Kyle Davidson wasn’t told specifics because Colorado demanded secrecy from Carolina. A couple executives said that, in this situation, you know what you’re being asked to retain, so you’re guessing who it could be. And, they bet Davidson was given a higher number than actually needed, to make it harder to guess who it was. Apparently, that’s a regular tactic.
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20. What Connor Hellebuyck does for Winnipeg, Dustin Wolf has a chance to do for Calgary. Not only has he taken the number one job and breathed new life into the franchise, but veterans are beginning to believe he can be a franchise cornerstone. They recognize Wolf’s talent. GM Craig Conroy told teams Rasmus Andersson, Nazem Kadri and MacKenzie Weegar are off-limits. We’ll see where it goes when it really matters, but the Flames are confidently talking about keeping Andersson.
21. It did not go unnoticed that Conroy took a private plane to Philadelphia to pick up Joel Farabee and Morgan Frost. At least one Flyer took time to text the Flames about what great people they were getting.
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22. Winnipeg (among others) will get down to contract business during the 4 Nations break. During my brief trip to the Manitoba capital, the quote that struck me most was from Dylan DeMelo. “This is where I wanted to be,” he said about re-signing last summer. “I love that (management) doubled down on what we have.”
Apparently, exit meetings last year were brutally honest about what went wrong against Colorado and what needed to happen to avoid a repeat. Players showed up in great condition, they started strong and haven’t looked back. The most mystery surrounds Nikolaj Ehlers, and his teammates didn’t want to speak for him. As written above, we are in a new era, and it’s hard to predict where all of this is going. What the Jets did say was that players want to win more than anything else, and thanks to Hellebuyck, they believe they have that chance.
23. Thought Rickard Rakell would be a perfect fit for Winnipeg, but don’t believe that’s likely.
24. If you need a defenceman, keep an eye on Utah. They will soon have extra.
25. Unlike Heiskanen, Wiliam Karlsson, Jacob Markstrom et al, whose 4 Nations absence is as a result of long-term injury, Alex Pietrangelo continues to play. Watch this reaction to a hit last Sunday from Matthew Tkachuk. It’s an awkward play, but nothing you’d think would be so agonizing. It’s clear he’s playing in pain.
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Is there any way Drew Doughty doesn’t get this spot the way he’s playing?
26. Hated to see Kaiden Guhle’s skate cut put him out; he’s suffered enough injuries. The details were gruesome, just a disgusting injury. A gentle reminder: wear the cut-resistant gear underneath socks, too.
27. As Hockey Canada considers a full-time world junior coach, one name to keep an eye on: Kris Mallette. Mallette was fired as WHL Kelowna’s bench boss in January, due to a poor start after three consecutive playoff berths. More importantly, he knows this age group of Canadian players, and has had success with them: three Gold medals at the Hlinka Gretzky Cup — one as a head coach, two as an assistant.
28. Thought it was great for hockey that McDonald’s brought together Auston Matthews and Connor McDavid for an updated commercial showdown. I loved the original — Larry Bird/Michael Jordan from 1993 “Nothing But Net” — followed by Wayne Gretzky/Mats Sundin in 1997. McDavid said he re-watched both “quite a bit as soon as I knew we were going to try to do something similar.”
In the Jordan/Bird version, the latter says, “No dunking,” so I wondered if any limits were applied between these two. “No restrictions,” said Rebecca Smart, McDonald’s Canada’s Brand Strategy Director. “We encouraged as much ad-libbing, riffing and chirping as possible to highlight their real friendship and a side we don’t often get to see from them.”
The Oilers captain said the two players didn’t have a ton of input “as the directors seemed to know our styles and preferences.”
“We definitely had some fun with it,” Matthews added. “The one where I hit Connor’s tooth out of his billboard is one of my favourites.”
29. There was never any resolution. No winner. Bird and Jordan were so fiercely competitive, I can’t imagine either being convinced to lose. Matthews and McDavid are cut from the same cloth. “They are so competitive we can’t imagine there ever being a winner,” Smart said. “They will consistently want to one up each other.”
Closest I got was asking who is the more accurate shooter. McDavid: “Tough to tell, situational for sure but I will say that 34’s release is second to none.“ Matthews laughed: “Connor is one of the most accurate shooters in the league. I think we both take a lot of pride working on our accuracy.”
30. One year after the original basketball version, McDonald’s came out with an updated one, adding Charles Barkley. Will this follow the same pattern, a sequel adding another superstar? “We will leave that to McDonald’s to decide,” McDavid said. Smart: “No sequel in the works, but we left it open ended for a reason.” This has Leon Draisaitl written all over it.
31. Finally, because I had to know, what is each one’s favourite food order? McDavid: “Non-Showdown related? Chicken McNuggets.” Matthews: “The Quarter Papi, obviously.” Both good choices, but nothing will ever beat two original cheeseburgers.
32. If you’re looking for something to listen to, I would recommend Tim Ferriss’s late January podcast with Chris Sacca. A real eye-opener.
