Analyzing Butler's impact on Warriors across first 20 games

Analyzing Butler's impact on Warriors across first 20 games originally appeared on NBC Sports Bay Area

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The first question I asked Jimmy Butler III inside the Warriors’ locker room at Chase Center was almost as simple as his response.

“How do you manage to always stay cool no matter the chaos around you?”

“I’ve been doing this s—t a long time. Ain’t nothing gon’ faze me.”

It shows. Warriors coach Steve Kerr separates the season into four quarters, roughly 20 games each, believing it’s a sufficient sample to assess the quality of a team. Butler has been part of the team for 20 games, 16 of which ended in victory. His production has been satisfactory, but his composure has made an even greater impact, giving serenity to coaches, to decorated veterans like Stephen Curry and Draymond Green, and to youngsters finding their way in the NBA.

“He’s a been very good for us,” says assistant coach Ron Adams, in his 32nd season coaching in the NBA. “He settles everybody down, and that’s something we needed, especially when closing games. He’s made Steph and Draymond better. He understands the game, and the other guys respect his presence.”

The Warriors were one game below .500 (25-26) when they took the court at United Center in Chicago for Butler’s debut after being acquired from the Miami Heat at the Feb. 6 trade deadline. They tended to squander leads, even against opponents with inferior rosters and records.

When general manager Mike Dunleavy and CEO Joe Lacob traded for Butler – parting with Andrew Wiggins, who was terrific in the 2022 NBA Finals victory – Golden State was trending not toward the playoffs but fighting for a berth in the play-in tournament.

Less than two weeks later, after winning three of four games with Butler on the roster, Green was predicting a championship. Considering the Warriors were 28-27 and in ninth place in the Western Conference, it was an outlandish proclamation.

The Warriors since have posted the second-best record (13-3) in the West, behind only the conference-leading Oklahoma City Thunder (15-2). Golden State takes a 41-30 record into Kaseya Center in Miami on Tuesday night when Butler will face his former team.

The bullet train to the postseason slowed a bit last week, however, as the Warriors posted a mediocre 2-2 record. Still, Butler played quality hoops. He was essential to their 117-114 victory over the Toronto Raptors last Thursday, posting a triple-double and making two crucial defensive plays in the fourth quarter, including a block with 20.9 seconds remaining.

“He just understands the situation, and he wants the ball, and he asks for it,” Kerr was saying after that game. “Different areas and attacks. He did a fantastic job. His shot wasn’t going but he was creating everything for us. Triple-double. The defensive play of the game with the blocked shot at the rim. It’s the beauty of guys like Jimmy and Draymond, that they can impact the game at such a high level regardless of what’s happening with their offensive games.”

Since coming to Golden State, Butler has played 19 games, with only two negative plus/minus totals. He’s averaging 17.3 points, 6.5 assists, 6.1 rebounds and 1.3 steals. He has attempted 151 free throws and made 84.8 percent of them. His frequent trips to the line, and conversions once there, have filtered through the roster. The Warriors were last in the league free-throw percentage before Butler and second since he arrived.

Turnovers are down, and efficiency is up. The offense that posted a 111.8 rating (18th in the NBA) before Butler is at 118.2 (ninth) with him. Curry’s efficiency, which was trending downward, has soared.

“He sees the whole floor,” Curry says of Butler’s impact on pick-and-roll actions. “He can take up space. They have to make a decision whether they’re going to switch or whether they’re going to go under or show and get back to me. There’s like four different ways you can guard it.

“But he’s very good at just staying under control, making the right play. You can tell he hadn’t really looked to score as much right now just because he’s reading the defense and taking what they’re giving him. But having the ball in his hands is usually a good thing.”

Kerr’s decision to have Butler on the floor whenever Curry gets a breather was a logical move that generally has been successful. Kerr tried to sneak in a few minutes with both on the bench, and the Warriors almost fumbled away the game. Never again.

The immediate response to Golden State’s acquisition of Butler was mixed. Some thought he prove beneficial, while others were skeptical – partly because of the contentious breakup with the Heat after five years, including two trips to the Finals. By all accounts, even beyond the 16-4 record, he has been exceedingly valuable as an individual and a teammate.

“Phenomenal,” Kerr says. “I mean, just the way he looks after our young guys, playing 1-on-1 with them after practice, pulling them aside during games, talking. He’s been an amazing leader.”

Through 20 games, Butler looks like the most beneficial Golden State trade since January 2007, when the Warriors acquired Stephen Jackson and Al Harrington from Indiana in exchange for Troy Murphy and, ahem, Dunleavy.

After losing the first two games after the deal, with their record falling to 19-23, the Warriors pulled it together and finished the season with a five-game win streak – spawning the “We Believe” rally cry – that put them in the playoffs for the first time in 13 years.

These Warriors believe in the power of Jimmy.

“It’s been amazing,” Kerr told reporters in Miami on Monday. “He’s one of the best players in the league and he’s instantly transformed our team.”

How far can the post-Jimmy Warriors go? That is to be determined in the coming weeks. What’s certain is that they’ll go a lot farther than they would go without him.

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