Analyzing how the Pittsburgh Penguins have fallen
On course to miss the playoffs for a third straight season, the Penguins are at the bottom of the Metropolitan Division and not close to being competitive. Adam Vingan dives into the numbers to see what’s wrong with the Penguins.
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The Pittsburgh Penguins’ empire is crumbling.
For nearly 20 years, the Penguins were the gold standard of the NHL, a perennial contender that won three championships under the leadership of captain Sidney Crosby.
But those days are over. Pittsburgh (7-12-4) is in last place in the Metropolitan Division and on track to miss the playoffs for the third year in a row.
“We have to fight our way out of this,” Penguins forward Bryan Rust told reporters after losing 6-1 at home to the Utah Hockey Club on Saturday. “This sucks. This sucks a lot. It’s not something I’m very used to. I’d like to get this thing going in the right direction. Right now.”
In order to do that, the Penguins must first fix their defence, which has been frighteningly bad. They rank 31st in the league with 3.62 expected goals against per 60 minutes in all situations, ahead of only the Anaheim Ducks (3.83).
Odd-man rushes are a constant issue; Pittsburgh allows a league-worst 7.35 per 60. Opponents also have feasted on the Penguins’ carelessness with the puck, scoring a league-leading 36 goals within 10 seconds of a Pittsburgh turnover. Kris Letang and Evgeni Malkin have been the biggest culprits, sharing the team lead in turnovers that have led to goals against with four each.
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The Penguins’ goaltenders have borne the brunt of the team’s defensive issues. Their individual traditional numbers are ghastly; Tristan Jarry, for example, has a 4.41 goals-against average and .869 save percentage in six starts. But when factoring in the shot quality Jarry and Pittsburgh’s other goaltenders are facing, it is hard to pin all the blame on them. Jarry and Alex Nedeljkovic have allowed 0.98 and 1.67 total goals above expected, respectively — 43rd and 47th among the top 64 goaltenders in minutes played. Rookie Joel Blomqvist has been the best of the bunch, saving 2.8 goals above expected in eight appearances (24th).
These Penguins have not handled success well. They have blown leads in 12 of their 23 games, which is tied for the league lead. That includes five games in which they have coughed up a lead in the third period — tied for fourth most.
When the Penguins have given up a goal, they rarely have answered with a goal of their own. Their 25.8 per cent response-goal rate is the worst in the league, according to NHL Inside Edge.
Not even Crosby, who scored his 600th career goal last weekend and leads the Penguins with 21 points, has been able to drag the team back into the fight. Pittsburgh has generated 47.5 per cent of the expected goals at 5-on-5 when Crosby has been on the ice — a noticeable drop from the 52.7 xGF% he posted last season. The Penguins have been outscored 21-15 during Crosby’s minutes at 5-on-5, but that is better than they have fared when he is on the bench (outscored 44-24).
After scoring a league-worst 39 goals below expected last season, including a mind-boggling 24.2 on the power play, the Penguins are back near the bottom with 15.3 goals scored below expected (30th). This time around, the majority of the missed opportunities have come at 5-on-5, where Pittsburgh is minus-11.4. (The power play, which finished 30th last season at 15.3 per cent, is up to 15th at 20.6 per cent.)
Penguins general manager Kyle Dubas’ hands are tied when it comes to finding solutions. Crosby, Letang and Erik Karlsson are all signed through at least 2026-27 and currently have no-movement clauses in their contracts, according to PuckPedia. Letang’s deal does not expire until after the 2027-28 season. Malkin (NMC) is scheduled to become a free agent after next season.
Pittsburgh’s prospect pipeline is considered among the weakest in the league. None of the rookie skaters that have suited up for the Penguins this season — Rutger McGroarty, Owen Pickering and Sam Poulin, among others — have made a tangible impact.
The Penguins have hit hard times, and there appears to be no clear way out.
All stats via Sportlogiq
