Atlanta Braves Top 40 Prospects

Baldwin signed for just south of $650,000 as the Braves’ third rounder in 2022. He slashed .318/.426/.549 throughout his college career in Springfield, had as many walks as strikeouts, and posted a 51% hard-hit rate (Missouri State plays in the same stadium as the Cardinals’ Double-A team, so it’s fitted with all the tech) in a pretty sizable sample as a junior. As a pro, Baldwin has coasted through the minors, posting a comfortably above-average wRC+ at every level, except for the very start of 2024 at Double-A, where he had some tough BABIP luck.

Baldwin’s ability to move his hands around the zone and spray well-struck contact to all fields is commensurate with an impact primary catcher. He’s thick and physical, and rotates with ferocity, and yet his short levers keep his swing from getting too long. He again posted a hard-hit rate up around 50% in 2024, though Baldwin almost exclusively inside-outs fastballs the other way and big league pitchers might be able to limit his game power by attacking him with velocity on the outer third. Though a bunch of his TrackMan data is very similar to that of Dodgers catcher Dalton Rushing, Baldwin’s power is not as well-actualized, and stylistically, he looks more like an all-fields doubles hitter. Still, he does a little bit of everything at a position where one thing is often enough.

Baldwin has made impressive developmental progress on defense. The Braves drastically altered some stylistic elements of his receiving, most notably paring down Baldwin’s footwork and putting him more regularly on one knee, and it has taken him some time to get comfortable with that. His receiving and ball blocking are only fair, while the quickness and consistency of his exchange on throws to second base has become excellent. What he lacks in height relative to most catchers, he makes up for in bodily density. He’s of sturdy build and caught close to 100 games in 2024 when you take his AFL and Premier12 postseason activity into account. Though he’s not currently on the 40-man roster, Baldwin is in position for a 2025 debut, and given Sean Murphy‘s injury track record (including a recent rib fracture), it’s possible he’ll get some extended run.

A two-sport Texas Tech commit coming out of high school, Smith-Shawver raced to the big leagues in his second full season even as his repertoire and delivery were evolving. His strike-throwing stagnated during a homer-prone 2024 at Triple-A, but the barely-22-year-old Smith-Shawver (who also dealt with a grade two oblique strain last year) still checks basically every athletic box you’re looking for in an impact pitcher and he hasn’t focused solely on baseball for very long. Since he was drafted, the Braves have augmented AJ’s release point and, in 2022, altered the shape of his slider. In 2023, he added a mid-70s rainbow curveball that complements the shape of his riding mid-90s fastball. In 2024, he suddenly had a plus-flashing changeup. For Smith-Shawver to have entered pro ball as a fastball/slider projection guy and, amidst all these changes, reached the big leagues before he was legally allowed to drink is remarkable.

A super loose 6-foot-3, Smith-Shawver’s mechanical consistency should improve with reps. His fastball’s velocity and ride give it margin for error in the strike zone, but his secondary pitches (especially his slider) need to be located more consistently if they’re going to thrive. The developmental imperative for AJ and the Braves is to find more consistent slider release so that that pitch is located off the plate rather than constantly backing up into the wheelhouse of righty batters.

I’m consciously avoiding prospect fatigue here — were Smith-Shawver a college righty sitting 95 mph with his changeup quality, we’d be talking about him as a lock to be a top 10 pick. The Braves’ aggressive promotion schedule has backed them into a bit of a corner here, as Smith-Shawver has just one option year left, which might impact his role in the short-term. Over time, however, I think he’ll be a good mid-rotation starter with two plus pitches and, eventually, much better command than he has right now.

Caminiti was generally considered one of the best high school pitching prospects in the 2024 draft for his entire scouting timeline. He has a lanky, prototypical 6-foot-2 frame with a loose, whippy arm action. Caminiti’s arm stroke was habitually late during his pre-draft summer and fall, but was much more consistent during his senior spring. Up to 97, he sits 94-96 throughout most of his outings, then is down in the 92-93 range late. His fastball has a vertical movement orientation and average life. He also features big depth on a 1-to-7 upper-70s curveball and added a lateral slider (80-84 mph) during his senior spring. The changeup projection felt more favorable as last year’s draft approached because of Caminiti’s improved release consistency. He has perhaps more risk of struggling with strike-throwing than most premium high school lefties because of his prior inconsistency, but the ingredients of a four-pitch mid-rotation starter are here, and Caminiti is now in an org with a pretty good developmental track record.

Like a lot of Braves’ draft targets, Murphy was a two-way high school prospect with gorgeous mechanics. He enjoyed a little velocity uptick his senior year of high school but didn’t sustain it through his first full pro season, with his heater back in the 88-92 mph range during an otherwise solid 2023 campaign. Murphy threw 89.2 innings, with 113 strikeouts and 32 walks, and ended the season at High-A. He was off to a hot start in 2024 (though he was not throwing any harder) when he blew his UCL and needed TJ at the beginning of June. The timing of the surgery makes Murphy a 2025 Fall League candidate, as he’ll most likely be back very late this year, if at all. The 2026 season is Murphy’s 40-man platform year, and it will be interesting to see how Atlanta handles his innings count and promotion pace once he returns.

Murphy throws quality strikes with his fastball, which has vertical ride, helping it punch above its weight. His two breaking balls — an 81-85 mph slider and a slower 12-to-6 curveball — have lovely natural shape and break (especially the curveball), but both would benefit from more velocity (especially the slider). Though he doesn’t really have a changeup right now, Murphy’s athleticism and feel to pitch should enable growth in this area. Though Murphy has a silky smooth and repeatable delivery, it was tough to project on his velo while he was in high school because he had a boxy, relatively mature frame. If he can somehow pull a Walker Buehler, where he comes out of TJ rehab having added significant velocity, then he’ll rocket through the minors upon his return.

Tornes is a big, switch-hitting power bat prospect with loud thump from the left side of the plate. One of the most exciting 2025 international amateurs, Tornes generates some Anthony Santander comps and signed for just under $2.5 million in January.

Tornes’ lefty swing requires little mechanical runway to generate lethal bat speed. His stride back towards the pitcher occupies a lot of the batter’s box, but he doesn’t use a big leg kick to get there. The strength and explosion in Tornes’ hands is special and, unlike a lot of other hitters his size, it doesn’t take an elaborate operation to generate. His right-handed swing isn’t as explosive, and there are scouts who think he should just be hitting left-handed. If there’s a nit to pick with this top-of-the-class talent, it’s that Tornes’ bat path isn’t in the hitting zone for an especially long time. Tornes’ conditioning also waxed and waned during the time between his verbal commitment and signing day, and he’s likely a left field fit on defense long-term. He has the talent to hit his way into the middle of a big league order one day, and looks like the kind of high schooler who goes in the top half of the draft’s first round.

Waldrep barely pitched as a freshman at Southern Miss but somehow managed the stamina to strike out 140 hitters in 90 innings as a sophomore. He transferred to Florida for his junior year and had a nearly identical season, this time blowing away SEC hitters for most of the spring. He ranked sixth on my 2023 draft board, but fell to Atlanta at no. 24 overall due to his perceived relief risk and the quality of the rest of the class.

Waldrep began his first full pro season in Double-A, dominated in May and early June, and was promoted to the big leagues less than a year after he was drafted. After two rocky big league starts, he was shut down with elbow inflammation, and it took two months before Waldrep was back to working five innings or more per outing again. He looked normal at the very end of the season, reaching back for 97-98 early in outings before backing down into the 93-96 range late.

Waldrep’s approach to pitching is such that he likely won’t work efficiently as a starter if he can stick in a rotation. He often has to work above the zone with his fastball for it to be effective, and he runs deep counts because of this. The headline pitch in his arsenal is a cartoonish split changeup, which has incredible fading action and has missed bats at an elite rate in pro ball. The lone thing stopping this offering from receiving an 80 grade is Waldrep’s tendency to leave it hanging, though often it’s nasty enough to avoid damage even when he does. His curveball has taken a back seat in pro ball, and he has instead made use of a 84-89 mph cutter/slider, which is about average. His ability to routinely land that pitch for a strike contributes to Waldrep’s starter projection here. Waldrep is similar to Reese Olson and Drey Jameson, on the starter reliever line but likely to be a good member of a big league staff in some capacity. The lack of fastball playability likely ushers him to the bullpen, or at least will limit his innings-eating ability enough to have slid Waldrep just outside the Top 100.

Alvarez was a nice junior college draft pick in 2022, who has become a contact-oriented third baseman with below-average bat speed; his projected offensive impact is more in line with a second-division regular at the hot corner. Nacho was playing shortstop in the lower minors, and for a while his plate discipline looked as though it might be elite. Since he started facing upper-level arms, though, his on-base skills have played more like a plus attribute, and he has largely shifted to third base due to his lack of range. His foot speed is still a bit of an issue over at third, especially when Alvarez needs to charge slow rollers in front of him, but he is otherwise a smooth and graceful defender. On offense, Alvarez’s game is about all-fields doubles contact. His bat speed and power are both below average. He hit .284/.391/.401 combined between Double- and Triple-A in 2024, got an eight-game cup of coffee in July, and will enter 2025 as a depth option. He might be attractive in trade talks to a team that values his contact and zone control.

From the many athletic Hackenbergs (his brother was once the Jets’ woebegone quarterback), Drue was a 2023 draft-eligible sophomore at Virginia Tech whose spring ERA approached 6.00. Unranked and evaluated as a 40-FV reliever at the time of the draft, Hackenberg got a hefty bonus right around $2 million as Atlanta’s second round pick. In his first full pro season, he worked 129 innings, had a 3.07 ERA, 26.3% K% and 11.3% BB%, and reached Triple-A for his final four starts of the season.

Hack and the Braves have altered his fastball usage, mixing a four-seamer in with his college sinker; the two pitches have radically different shapes. His fastball’s velocity climbed a little bit in the middle of 2024, and he was sitting 92-95 by the time he got to Gwinnett. A lack of fastball effectiveness was part of why Hackenberg surrendered 113 hits in 85.1 innings as a sophomore at Tech, and development in this area is the chief reason why his FV grade has been elevated since he signed. Hackenberg’s slurve was always excellent and continues to be. It sits in the 81-85 mph range and has power, two-plane action. He also has a flat, terse cutter in the 86-89 mph range and an upper-80s changeup in the nascent stages of development. His command isn’t yet good enough for him to be a Top 100 prospect. Hackenberg’s ability to generate groundballs will bail him out of self-imposed traffic at times, but he looks more like a no. 4/5 type than a mid-rotation stalwart at this time.

A classic high school pitcher draft prospect, Ritchie had a projectable 6-foot-2 frame, a fast, whippy arm action and a snappy, devastating breaking ball as a Pacific Northwest prepster in 2022. His gorgeous arm action portended changeup development, and his feel for spin allowed you to project that Ritchie would develop a second good breaking ball over time. It took $2.4 million to keep him from a commitment to UCLA, and Ritchie sadly blew out after just four 2023 starts. He returned in June 2024 and ended up throwing 49.2 innings across 11 combined starts between his rehab on the complex, age-appropriate Low-A starts, and two High-A outings to cap the year.

Ritchie didn’t come out of his rehab having taken a meaningful physical step; he’s still a slender fella who sits 91-93 and requires rather violent, high-effort arm speed to generate it. Ritchie would show you 94-96 in short bursts as an amateur, but he’s been more in the low-90s since his senior spring of high school, and now he’s approaching age 22. What did take a step forward coming out of his TJ rehab was Ritchie’s changeup, which now has a one-seam sinker look out of hand. Even with below-average velocity, there’s enough other stuff happening here for Ritchie to continue to project as a starter, though his FV is shaded down a tier from last cycle because he didn’t have a velo spike coming out of rehab. That might still happen for him, but as we’re sitting here, Ritchie has mostly averaged 92 since the spring of 2022, and I think at this point it’s incumbent upon him to actually throw harder rather than wishcasting more velocity for him. He still has the look of a good team’s no. 4/5 starter thanks to his quality secondary pitches.

Braun didn’t pitch very much as an underclassman at San Diego, and it took transferring to Northridge for him to find a real role. He signed for just shy of $350,000 as a 2023 sixth rounder, and in 2024, his second season stretched out as a starter, he worked 143.2 innings and spent the second half at Double-A Mississippi. Braun’s delivery is like a Dana Carvey impression of Ryan Walker’s delivery. He starts on the extreme third base side of the rubber and uses a cross-bodied stride; it isn’t identical to Walker’s, but it’s in the neighborhood. Braun’s sweeper is plus and his release point makes it a nightmare for righties to deal with. It also gives the pitch so much space to break horizontally that it plays nicely as a backfoot weapon against lefties. The rest of Braun’s repertoire is a little south of average, but he’s a good athlete who hasn’t been starting for very long, and his changeup should get better as he continues to use it. Braun’s ability to locate all of his pitches is remarkable for someone without much starting experience. If his changeup can take a leap, then Braun has a sneaky shot to be on the Top 100 list 12 months from now. For now, he’s another surface-scratching pitcher who the Braves have improved enough to forecast as a stable no. 4/5 starter.

Fuentes is a loose little righty with a softer build who was having a great 2024 season at Low-A until August, when he was shut down with a blister; he made just one start in September. He allowed just 80 baserunners and struck out 98 in 75.2 innings, mostly living off his ability to locate his fastball to the top of the zone. Fuentes’ fastball only sits about 93, but it is utterly dominant thanks to its rise/run action, which is aided by his low-three-quarters release. There were times last year when Fuentes was paving over A-ball lineups even though he was using his fastball at a 70-80% clip. On the season, he used it 70% of the time and still struck out 32% of opponents. For further context, the average big league fastball generated a 23% miss rate in 2024, while Fuentes’ was well above 30%. The two key developmental variables for Fuentes will be, first, proving that he can sustain this kind of performance across nearly twice the workload he’s shown so far, and second, finding another good pitch. His slider is roughly average right now, while his changeup is well below. The slider sits about 83 mph and has below-average spin, but its two-plane shape pairs nicely with the exploding movement of Fuentes’ fastball. The upside here is that Fuentes could be a Joe Ryan type of starter. He’s still probably two or three years away from paydirt in Atlanta.

Perdomo got the biggest bonus in the 2024 international amateur class at a cool $5 million, the most ever by a Venezuelan player. Hamstring injuries limited him to just eight games during his would-be debut season. Of potential concern here is that my notes on amateur Perdomo featured comments on his general lower body stiffness. At the time, that was an indication that the physically mature infielder would have to move off of shortstop, but now that he’s also had a severe soft tissue injury, his near-future health is of particular importance and focus. The good news is that Perdomo’s swing looked pretty good during that tiny eight-game stretch; I was able to source roughly half of his 2024 in-game swings from ops personnel and, just as it was before he signed, you can see why the Braves gave him a multi-million dollar bag.

We still don’t truly know anything about Perdomo’s purportedly precocious feel to hit, though. We do know the Braves seemingly intended to assign him to the FCL roster before the first hammy issue, an indication that they thought he was ready to compete a level above what is typical for a prospect his age. Perdomo still looks like a guy who will have to move off of shortstop and will end up at second or third base, but he has the power to be a relevant regular at either spot if it turns out he can actually hit. This is a slight downgrade from Perdomo’s pre-signing eval because of the risk created by a) the recurring injuries and b) the lost season of reps because of them.

Baumann was signed away from a UCF commitment for just shy of $750,000 and had a successful first full season in 2024, as he worked 99 innings (all but his final start came at Low-A) and carried a 3.18 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 21.9% K%. Most importantly, he held 93-95 fastball velocity all year, reinforcing the 6-foot-8 righty’s innings-eating projection. Baumann throws a ton of strikes and utilizes a fastball-heavy approach, with most of his heaters living up and to the arm-side half of the plate. He is still searching for a dynamic second pitch. Both his slider and changeup, which tend to live in the mid-to-upper-80s, are below average right now. His ability to throw them for strikes is fairly advanced, but too often they’re in places hitters can reach. His slider especially is often located like a cutter at the top of the zone. Baumann’s overall ceiling is likely capped by a lack of natural secondary pitch quality, but I’m betting the changeup will progress enough to give him a second real weapon and enable Baumann to be more than just a generic backend guy, though probably not a star.

Burkhalter had a velocity swoon in April of his draft year and dealt with a stretch where his heater only sat about 92 mph. It ramped up again late in the season and peaked during the 2022 College World Series, when he was bumping 97, tilting in a hellacious cutter as hard as 92 mph, and also missing bats with the occasional changeup. While his violent delivery pushed his projection toward the bullpen, Burkhalter’s repertoire depth gave him a shot to start and his stuff seemed to be improving as the draft approached. Burkhalter was electric in his lone 2023 Grapefruit League appearance (up to 97, with nasty upper-80s cutters that had more depth when Burkhalter wanted it), but his final fastball was three ticks slower then his first one, and just two weeks later, the Braves announced Burkhalter needed Tommy John. He returned in mid-2024 (the attached video is from his second rehab outing), and by the end of the season, he had made 14 High-A starts, pitched 72 total innings, and posted a 1.21 WHIP and 23.6% K%.

At his best, Burkhalter sat 95-96, touched 98, and commanded the same 92 mph cutter/slider from before his elbow blew. As he stretched out as a starter at Rome, Burkhalter’s fastball velocity was more in the 92-96 mph range and he used more cutters. He was still often a first-pitch fastball guy but became unpredictable after that. His full-body, high-effort delivery is still evocative of a likely reliever, and that’s how he’s projected here, but Burkhalter’s repertoire depth (his changeup is ahead of his curveball) is sufficient to continue starter development, if only to give him more reps with his secondary stuff. The 2025 season is Burkhalter’s 40-man platform year and it’s plausible Atlanta could decide to fast track him as a reliever in the mid-to-late part of the season. He’s more likely to debut in 2026.

Among the later commits from the 2025 international class was Reyes, who signed with Atlanta for just shy of $1.8 million, which is a ton for a pitcher in that market. Reyes is a physically mature righty who was touching 100 before he turned 16; he has been up to 101. His fastball has real carry and vertical shape, while his slider is plus and has plus velocity. Reyes has not been able to throw strikes in workouts. He has late-inning relief upside if he can maintain his peak stuff across an actual season of innings and polish his command.

There’s a chance Reyes will be pushed faster than the other players in his signing class if things click for him from a strike-throwing standpoint. Usually signees from the D.R. are sitting in the low-90s at best at this stage, and velocity comes with time and development. Because Reyes’ arm strength is already exceptional, there’s simply less to wait for. The 2026 season is probably when Reyes could first conceivably take a multi-level leap, since most international signees tend to spend their first season in the DSL to participate in non-baseball classroom learning, and for tax purposes.

Montgomery is a big-framed, power-hitting catcher prospect who was coaxed away from Arizona State with a bonus just shy of a million bucks. He didn’t play after the draft and is probably the most important extended spring scouting target in the org.

Montgomery has a big league frame at a strapping 6-foot-4, and he has a very authoritative top hand through contact, which creates exciting pull power. We have next to no showcase performance data for Montgomery from which to derive any kind of accurate assessment of his hit tool; this guy is going from hitting varsity pitching to facing pro arms, so there’s a high degree of volatility here, even more than is typically associated with prep catchers.

Counterintuitively, the most advanced aspect of Montgomery’s game right now might be his receiving. It will no doubt also be tested by pro-quality stuff, but for an athlete his size to be as flexible and skilled a low-pitch framer as Montgomery seems to be is impressive. In addition to the hit tool indicators, Montgomery’s throwing is his other key developmental variable. He was popping 2.1 a lot of the time in high school. He just takes too long to let it go and his exchange needs to get faster. This is an exciting developmental prospect with some of the better upside in the Braves system.

Sinnard, who only started playing baseball during his senior year of high school, began his college career at Western Kentucky, then had a sophomore breakout at Indiana when he set the school’s single-season strikeout record with 114 ponchados in 86.1 innings. He blew out in a postseason start at the end of 2023, but was back in time to throw at the 2024 Draft Combine and in scouted pre-draft bullpens.

Sinnard’s fastball was 93-94 at the Combine with plus-plus induced vertical break (unadjusted for release height). His pre-TJ, in-game delivery had much more effort and violence than the Combine version. He utilizes a vertical attack with the fastball and then bends multiple breaking balls off of that. It’s very tough to predict which speed and shape of breaking ball is coming — it could be an upper-70s curve, or a mid-80s slider and cutter. Sinnard showed skilled cutter location at the top/glove-side part of the zone before he blew out. Yet another injured or surface-scratching type of prospect drafted by the Braves, if Sinnard’s mechanical violence can be quelled, he has the repertoire of a good backend starter, and there’s a chance he’s got more in the tank as a guy who has only been pitching in truly competitive settings for a short period of time.

Holton was a three-year starter at Vanderbilt who had a dominant freshman year and then posted two average seasons thereafter, including a sophomore injury and a late-junior year fade and shutdown. He made one start after the 2024 draft, during which he sat his usual 92-94 mph across 55 pitches but appeared to have scrapped his curveball in favor of heavier slider usage; that slide piece came in two ticks harder than his tertiary college version. It’s something to watch in 2025.

Holton is an undersized but bouncy athlete who will hum in the mid-90s when he’s right. He has a short, vertical arm stroke and hides the ball awhile, and his fastball has a relatively flat approach angle even though he has a higher-than-average release. His slider and changeup both generated plus rates of swing-and-miss at Vandy, while looking a little closer to big league average in terms of pure stuff, but now the slider is harder and nastier. The mid-70s curveball gave Holton a distinct four-pitch mix and seemed like good fit with his fastball shape, so let’s see if it’s been scrapped entirely or simply taken a back seat.

The Braves paid Holton like a backend starter prospect. My pre-draft eval was a shade worse than that due to Holton’s lack of size and projectability, as well as his mechanical violence and rocky last couple of seasons, but the new slider is enough of a difference-maker to upgrade his FV grade to be on par with where he was drafted. There’s definitely more risk here than I would usually associate with a guy who was a three-year SEC starter, but lefties with sliders like this tend to have a big league relief floor.

Polo is an advanced strike-thrower and slider purveyor whose 2024 FIP was nearly two full runs better than his 5.16 ERA. Polo’s tight gyro slider resides in the mid-80s and bites really, really late. His ability to dot it on the glove-side corner of the plate helps it play like a plus offering, and it might be better than that at peak if Polo can throw it (and the rest of his repertoire) harder as he enters his mid-20s. It’s going to be important for him to throw a little bit harder because his fastball is currently below average and vulnerable to loud contact at around 92 mph. Polo’s gorgeous arm action and feel for locating his changeup suggest that pitch should at least give him something to keep hitters off his heater in the event that he only ever has below-average velocity, which is a distinct possibility given his lack of size. The other potential saving grace for Polo will be his command, which is special for a pitcher his age and should help keep his fastball out of trouble. Polo’s season ended with a strained rotator cuff, but he is otherwise a high-floored backend starter prospect with terrific command.

Bagwell is a very powerful righty with an exciting drop-and-drive delivery and talent for spin. The physical 6-foot-4, 230-pound former Missouri commit drives so hard down the mound that his right shin almost scrapes the ground as he pedals home. Bagwell also has a low-three-quarters arm slot that, combined with his delivery, gives him a 5-foot release height. This creates funky uphill angle on his low-90s fastball, which was up to 96 at the Combine. Bagwell made one post-draft start in Augusta, and his focus seemed to be mixing in two- and four-seamers. His sweeper-style slider at times features 2,800 rpm, and is a potential plus pitch if he can learn to command it. A great-looking delivery, a traits-y fastball, and a plus potential breaking ball — it’s a great foundation for a developmental pitching prospect. Bagwell’s not traditionally projectable because he’s already a muscular 230 pounds, but he checks virtually every other box and has a reasonable relief floor with even a slightly better version of his present stuff.

Arestigueta checks several visual scouting boxes with his projectable 6-foot-3 build, and his mechanical grace and fluidity. He pitched his way off the complex in 2024, ending his season at Low-A Augusta and totaling 60.1 combined innings between the two levels (and probably more during extended spring training) with a 21.5% K% and 10.9% BB%. Though his stuff is currently below average across the board, Arestigueta’s projectability and relative polish for his age make him a nice developmental starter prospect. His fastball averaged just 90 mph in 2024, but it peaks in the 94-95 area. Given his age, he might end up sitting more in the mid-90s at maturity. Arestigueta also has a good low-80s slider with two-planed movement, which generated a 39% miss rate in 2024. His changeup is well behind his slider, but Arestigueta’s silky smooth arm action should yield a better one with time. This is a nice low-level prospect who’d be in the third round mix were he in the draft.

Gil, who signed for $110,000 in 2023, has had two solid offensive seasons in rookie ball and hit his way to Low-A late last season. Still, a .286/.403/.389 line on the North Port complex doesn’t present an accurate representation of Gil’s offensive skill set. He’s patient and has pretty good power for a hitter his age (35% hard-hit rate, 103 mph EV90), but he really struggled to hit after he was promoted to Augusta at the end of 2024. There is strikeout risk here, as Gil lacks barrel feel and tends to swing through the middle of the zone. But if he can get to more power (his swing also presently lacks launch) and walk a bunch, that should allow him to play a utility role. Gil’s carrying tools are his speed and his shortstop defense. He’s a comfortably plus runner who stole 40 bases in 48 attempts last year. His speed gives him explosive range, and Gil’s ability to make acrobatic defensive plays gives him a shot to be an impact shortstop defender at peak. His path to a large role comes via his defense. Any chance Gil has of being an everyday player will come from him out-performing my hit tool projection here.

The 27-year-old Pilar signed with the Rockies toward the end of 2015 and was in their org until after the 2023 season, when he elected free agency. He signed with the Marlins on a minor league deal and missed a chunk of 2024 in the middle of the season due to injury, but reached Triple-A in a long relief role late in the year. Pilar then went to the Dominican Winter League, which is where his prospect stock took off, as he lowered his arm slot and added a few ticks to his entire repertoire. He was sitting 95 with natural cut the day before the Rule 5 Draft, when he was selected by the Braves, after sitting 93 during the regular season. Pilar works with cutters and sliders and has maintained half of last year’s velo bump at the onset of 2025; he’s sitting 94 in Grapefruit League action. His slider looks like it has more consistent depth now, and he has a sinker variant in addition to the two glove-side offerings. He looks like a solid middle-inning option.

Salinas’ bus quite literally broke down on the shoulder in 2024, as Royber needed surgery on his last July and isn’t expected to be back until toward the end of 2025. The Braves traded Salinas to Oakland as part of the Sean Murphy deal in 2022, and for a minute, he looked like a potential mid-rotation starter. In 2024, his mechanics broke down and so did his arm. He was shut down in the middle of the season and attempted to rest his shoulder to avoid surgery, but it didn’t work. The A’s DFA’d him and the Braves claimed him off waivers, then they non-tendered him and brought him back on a minor league deal.

Healthy Salinas sits about 95 and will mix in different shapes. He has a plus mid-80s slider and was searching for a third pitch, which has been either a cutter or curveball depending on when you caught him. His fastball was down two-and-a-half ticks last year before he was shut down. Salinas isn’t the best-conditioned athlete, but his hips are loose, and I bought that he could work a starter’s load of innings at the time of the trade. Now we wait for Salinas to get right physically, and see where he’s at when he returns. He’s got a shot to play a meaningful bullpen role in 2026.

Rodriguez spent the early portion of his career in the Brewers system, projecting as a slash-and-dash fifth outfielder with great bat-to-ball ability and basically no power or plate discipline. In 2024, his last year in Milwaukee’s system before electing free agency and joining the Braves on a non-guaranteed big league deal (he was put on the 40-man), C-Rod slashed .284/.368/.374 split between Double- and Triple-A, then played winter ball in Venezuela. To repackage a joke from last year’s write-up, Rodriguez’s offensive profile is like a serial killer speed dating: lots of slashing, singles only. His 25 extra-base hits in 2024 tied his career high. He can occasionally turn on a down-and-in pitch, but he’s generally geared to spray oppo line drives over the head of the shortstop. He is very difficult to make swing-and-miss; Rodriguez ran an 11.8% strikeout rate, a 93% in-zone contact and a 89% overall contact rate in 2024. Two aspects of Rodriguez’s game have been in flux for the last year: His speed has dipped a bit as he’s filled out, but his selectivity at the plate has improved to roughly average. He still looked fine in center field during winter ball play in Venezuela, and he should provide the Braves with a viable bench outfielder’s skill set.

Munoz has one of the better sliders in the minors and has K’d at least a batter per inning every season that he’s been in pro ball, including 32.2% of the Double-A hitters he faced in 2024. His 85-89 mph comet slider often has incredible length for how hard it is. Munoz also has one of the bigger gaps in the minor leagues between his fastball’s velocity and its effectiveness. His 98-mph heater plays down due to ineffective movement, below-average control, and because Munoz’s delivery appears easy for hitters to time. These issues will probably limit his role to the middle innings.

Lara is an exciting but messy 22-year-old power-armed righty with plus-plus arm strength and 30-grade control. He is probably going to be a reliever, not only because he has scattershot command (he walked 16.2% of opposing hitters in 2024), but also because his fastball’s shape and plane make it less effective than its velocity might indicate. Lara is built like a college quarterback at a strapping, high-waisted 6-foot-3. He is a powerful, tightly wound athlete whose feel for release is way, way behind his pure arm speed. Often, Lara’s delivery isn’t well-connected and he throws a ton of non-competitive fastballs, though that’s partly because his heater really only plays when it’s way up above the zone. He’ll reach back for 99-100 on occasion, but his velocity seemed to taper late in 2024 as he was promoted to Double-A for five walk-prone starts. Lara tries to get ahead of hitters with a hard cutter/slider and then elevate his fastball for whiffs. He had low-minors success working with these two pitches in this way, but his development has plateaued. It’s possible he’ll remain too wild to be a reliable middle reliever. Entering his 40-man platform year, there’s a chance the Braves make the pragmatic decision to put Lara in the bullpen. If they do, the ceiling on his velocity is huge, but hopefully there is progress made in other areas that will facilitate Lara’s addition to the roster after the season.

The son of 17-year (wowzers) big league veteran Miguel Cairo, Christian is a skilled shortstop defender who was boxed out of a 40-man spot in Cleveland by the Guardians’ mantle-deep group of same-aged shortstops. At age 23, Cairo slashed .240/.354/.326 during a 2024 campaign split between Double-A Akron and Triple-A Columbus. The Braves took Cairo in the Rule 5 Draft because of his defense, and he’ll likely compete with Nick Allen for an Opening Day roster spot as the team’s glove-first utilityman, which is Cairo’s ultimate projection. Though he lacks prototypical shortstop arm strength (and sometimes air mails throws when he’s a bit out of range), Cairo is otherwise an elegant and skillful shortstop defender with fantastic footwork and actions, a plus fielder despite his substandard arm. He has below-average bat speed but pretty good feel for moving the barrel around the zone, and Cairo generates soft line drive spray to all fields.

In college, Kuehler looked like a pure relief prospect, but potentially a rather good, quick-moving one, as he’d often touch 98 mph and bend in two good breakers. Deployed as a starter in pro ball, Kuehler’s stuff backed up in 2024 and he was in the 89-92 mph range until late June, when he was shut down and required Tommy John. Kuehler’s best secondary pitch at Campbell was his slider, which didn’t look as good in 2024 for obvious reasons. As a pro, Kuehler seemed to scrap his college curveball and instead began working with a splitter, which was fresh and relatively ineffective. The timing of his surgery gives him a shot to pitch in late 2025, perhaps in the Arizona Fall League. He still has middle relief projection here, it’s just a little cloudier than before the injury due to the repertoire changes and suppressed stuff.

Joseph is a hard-throwing Dominican righty with some of the best arm strength in the Braves system. He ended the 2024 season at Double-A Mississippi and posted a combined 2.04 ERA and 34.1% strikeout rate, but he wasn’t put on the 40-man and went unselected in the Rule 5 Draft because of how wild he is.

So inconsistent is Joseph’s release point that, as I noted last year, his nickname could be Elison “Jesus, Mary and” Joseph, which is what I found myself muttering watching his catchers constantly sprint to the backstop to retrieve an errant pitch. But if things click for Joseph, he’s going to be a high-leverage reliever. His fastball averaged 97 mph and has plus vertical break from a lower-than-average release point. He tends to use it as a finishing pitch because Joseph struggles to locate it in the zone and threw it for strikes just 56% of the time last year. His slider, an 85-88 mph mixed bag of some true sliders and lots that have more cutter-y shape, is his most-used pitch. Joseph’s delivery isn’t violent or messy, he simply lacks tactile feel for release. If he can find even 40-grade control, he’s going to be a great weapon. He’ll likely begin his major league career in an up/down capacity and root himself into a more consistent role if he can throw strikes in front of the big league manager.

Kilpatrick is a good-gloved center field prospect who has now posted two consecutive years of below-average offensive performance at High-A Rome, with his wRC+ living in the 89-91 range each time. Kilpatrick’s swing takes too long to enter the hitting zone, and when he makes contact, it is often down the first base line. He is very unlikely to make any kind of long-term offensive impact, but his speed and ability to play a great center field should allow him to have a big league career as a defensive replacement and pinch-runner. KJ stole 50 bases in 59 attempts last year and will run 4.2 flat from home to first. On defense, his range is plus, his routes are crisp, and his ball skills are terrific. He’s a fringe 40-man type who’ll probably hop around to various orgs throughout his lifetime as a pro.

Guanipa, who signed for $2.5 million in 2023, had a fair DSL debut that year and then dealt with a hamstring injury for much of 2024. It limited him to 52 games and a .219/.286/.291 line. A smaller prospect, Guanipa would require twitch and explosion to make a big impact because he lacks meaningful size and strength, but his tools so far have looked pretty vanilla. He has the wheels to continue developing in center field, but his impact on offense feels like it will need to come from special contact ability, which to this point has been average. At the moment, Guanipa looks more like a future part-timer than a dynamic leadoff man.

Dodd began his college career at Kankakee Community College in Illinois before matriculating to Southeast Missouri State for three more years. He didn’t truly establish himself until 2021, his fourth year removed from high school, when Dodd struck out 120 batters and walked just 17 in 96.2 innings. The Braves made him their third round pick, altered his delivery, and coaxed a little more velo and fastball playability out of him. The following year, Dodd raced all the way to Triple-A in his first full season while maintaining his stuff across a 30-inning workload increase. Since then, Dodd has struggled to break through to the next level. He had a great 2023 spring training and made seven big league starts but was knocked around. He spent virtually all of 2024 in the minors, with just a single two-inning relief appearance in the big leagues. During the spring of 2025, he made just one Grapefruit League appearance before he was optioned. Dodd still throws strikes with all of his pitches (fastball, cutter, changeup and a slider that’s a distant fourth), but they have turned out to be very vulnerable to damage. Each has an xwOBA on contact north of .370, and that was against Triple-A hitters in 2024. His strike-throwing makes him a viable spot starter, but it’s tough to project Dodd into a permanent rotation spot.

Hernandez spent two years at Miami Dade Community College before matriculating to The U for his junior year. In his lone season as a Hurricane, Hernandez K’d 95 in just 70.1 walk-prone innings as a starter. He left campus with a 1.58 WHIP and 6.14 ERA, but was still the Braves’ fourth rounder on talent. Miami has not done a good job of developing pitchers on campus and it’s possible Hernandez still has developmental meat on the bone. In his couple of post-draft outings, he was no longer using his college curveball and was pitching more off a mid-80s slider, which was a few ticks harder than his college version. Hernandez sits 91-94 from a vertical slot and his fastball features 20 inches of vertical break, though when adjusted for his 6-foot-4 release height (kinda nuts considering Hernandez is just 5-foot-10), that’s more of an above-average amount of movement rather than an elite amount. Still mostly a developmental prospect, Hernandez has a reasonable lefty relief outcome and will need to find both a third pitch and starter-quality command in order to outpace that forecast.

Samuels is an interesting dev project from Division-II Montevallo because he’s able to create a tough horizontal split between his two-planed slider and changeup. These two pitches have above-average movement that, given Samuels’ small-school background, has yet to be fully harnessed. In the lone pro inning that Samuels threw after the draft, his fastball was sitting four ticks harder than it had been when he was pitching in March, the only data point I have for him as an amateur. He presents a fairly typical look athletically and mechanically, has room to fill out and add strength, and could conceivably throw harder yet even though he was a senior sign. Samuels never worked more than 68 innings in any single season at Montevallo, and how he responds to a pro starter’s workload will be another key to his prospectdom. For now, he’s a great sleeper to monitor toward the bottom of the system.

Drafted as a high school outfielder in 2019, Morton flamed out as a hitter in 2023 and switched to pitching in 2024. He began the season as a piggyback starter, then moved to the bullpen in late July and worked an inning or two at a time for the rest of the year, accumulating 47.1 total innings. Morton allowed runs in just two of the 10 games he pitched out of the bullpen late in the season, though in each of those he allowed five.

The raw material Atlanta has to work with here is very, very exciting, and even though Morton wasn’t throwing all that hard immediately upon conversion, the potential for growth in this area is substantial because of how gorgeous his delivery is. This is an elite athletic mover on the mound. He has one of the more picturesque deliveries you’ll see, and generates seven feet of extension. Morton’s fastball features slightly above-average ride and his slider, which generated a 47% miss rate in 2024, has nice two-planed shape. This is still more of an aggressive, somewhat speculative way to line Morton up in this system because he’s an A-ball conversion arm with a bloated ERA, but the way this guy moves invites one to dream on his stuff.

Juan was once a very young and inexperienced addition to Oakland’s 40-man roster, but he struggled to stay healthy and (later on) to throw strikes. He was released and re-signed in 2022, then elected free agency after the 2023 season and signed with Atlanta. The 6-foot-8 righty found slightly better control than he had in 2023, walking “only” 15.8% of opponents at Double-A in 2024. Juan then pitched for the Dominican Republic in the Premier12 tournament and then in the Puerto Rican winter league. He held his stuff that entire time, and was still sitting 94-99 during that span.

Juan is enormous, but he’s a short-strider who generates much less extension than you’d expect from a pitcher this big. He tends to be relatively upright at release, which gives his pitches the steep plane of a runaway truck ramp. This most benefits Juan’s power breaking ball, which doesn’t pop out of his hand in an identifiable way. Juan’s size, arm strength, and breaking ball performance give him a shot to break into a big league bullpen as a late-bloomer.

McCabe is a dangerous switch-hitter with high-effort power from both sides of the plate. He lacks a true position (he’s played mostly third base as a pro, but isn’t mobile enough to do so at the big league level) and will probably be a bench weapon rather than a regular starter. He slashed .276/.385/.450 with 17 bombs in 2023, then had offseason TJ and missed most of 2024 recovering; he struggled at Double-A Mississippi and in the Arizona Fall League after he returned. He’s a 2025 bounce-back candidate who needs to perform on offense to remain on here.

Mateo is a bat control prodigy with terrific hand-eye coordination and a preternatural ability to cover the top of the strike zone. He was the best non-Perdomo hitting prospect in Atlanta’s DSL group and was among the org’s leaders in contact rate. Mateo is wiry and fairly projectable, but he’s not at all strong right now. In fact, at 3%, he’ll probably have the lowest hard-hit rate of any prospect on a list during this cycle. But his feel to hit, long-term body projection, and potential athletic fit at shortstop (his internal clock needs to be recalibrated, but otherwise he’s pretty good there) make him a good low-level prospect to follow. He’s likely ticketed for a second DSL season.

Baez had issues identifying spin on the complex in 2024 and had a flop of a season on offense — .202/.272/.243, 48 wRC+ — compared to his 2023 DSL debut. His underlying contact data was still pretty good (he had a .254 BABIP), and Baez stands out visually for his explosive in-the-box athleticism. Baez swings with shocking ferocity for a hitter his size. At just 5-foot-9, he utilizes a huge leg kick and move back toward the pitcher during his swing. The chase portion of Baez’s profile is definitely scary, but the athleticism and bat-to-ball combo here is still too exciting to move off of him as a prospect. For now, he’s a toolsy bounce-back candidate who’ll hopefully be more selective during his second season stateside.