Blues add intrigue to playoff race with stretch-drive turnaround

When the NHL paused league action for the 4 Nations Face-Off in early February — a break for most NHLers, a high-speed, high-stakes international tournament for many others — we thought we had a pretty good idea of where the line was between contenders and lottery-bound clubs.

But today’s standings, exactly one month after Canada defeated the U.S. for gold in a dramatic final, reflect what’s been a wild ride for playoff hopefuls — particularly those we’d mostly counted out a month ago but are now firmly entrenched in the post-season race and upping the drama for us all.

Since the NHL resumed action after the Four Nations on Feb. 22, no NHL club has won more games than the St. Louis Blues, who will try to keep that momentum going Thursday night as they host the Vancouver Canucks in a matchup brimming with playoff implications. The Canucks and Blues are tied in the standings with 75 points each but are separated by a solid black line representing the difference between playoffs and not. Vancouver enters the matchup sitting in that second wild card spot thanks to having one game in hand, but St. Louis can replace them above the fold with a win Thursday night.

A victory at home would continue what’s been a remarkable month-long streak of success for St. Louis, who four weeks ago sat sixth in the Central, their 55 points in the standings a full 13 shy of catching Colorado for the first wild card spot and eight back of Vancouver for the second.

Winners of nine of their last 13 (the Washington Capitals have also won nine), the Blues have collected 20 of a possible 26 points over that stretch with just two regulation losses.

Their .769 point percentage over the past month sits atop the Western Conference and second league-wide to only Montreal (more on them later).

As the wins pile up for St. Louis, so do the goals. The Blues’ offence, which ranked 27th in goals per game (2.70) through 56 contests before the 4 Nations Face-Off break, is lighting the lamp at a league-high pace (3.92 per game) since. The Blues’ output during the month leading up to 4 Nations offers a more parallel comparison: In 14 games between Jan. 9 and Feb. 9, the Blues posted a 6-7-1 record for a .464 point percentage while averaging just 2.43 goals per game — seventh-worst league-wide during that stretch.

That’s a pretty incredible turnaround.

Defensively, St. Louis has been elite at suffocating opponents and suppressing shots — they’re tied with Carolina the second-fewest shots allowed per game, behind only the Florida Panthers. With starts being split between Team Canada starter Jordan Binnington and his Blues backup, Joel Hofer, St. Louis’ tandem isn’t stealing the show (they combine for a decent 2.38 goals-against average). But it’s much improved over the 3.05 averaged from the start of the season up to the 4 Nations Face-Off break. Binnington has won six of seven starts with St. Louis since backstopping Canada to gold.

The only problem is, the Blues share a division with a trio of heavyweights in the Winnipeg Jets, Dallas Stars and Colorado Avalanche. While the Jets have built up an impressive case for the President’s Trophy, sitting comfortably atop not just the division but the entire Western Conference, the Stars and Avalanche have also been riding hot streaks of their own over the past month. Their matching 8-3-1 records for a .708 point percentage over that time have both squads all but locked into the Central’s 2-3 spots (and on a collision course for a first-round bout). That leaves the Blues’ playoff hopes limited to one of two wild card spots, with the most likely scenario being a down-to-the-wire battle for the WC2.

A win over Vancouver Thursday night would go a long way in that regard. The Canucks, who have registered a .462 point percentage since the NHL resumed play and have brought a different kind of drama to the rink, have been treading water in that second wild-card spot but will need to start swimming if they’re to stave off St. Louis hot on their tail. And with the Blues boasting the league’s second-easiest strength of schedule remaining, according to Tankathon, St. Louis should have plenty of opportunity to keep rising.

Of course, the Blues aren’t the only team pressing in the West. Sitting right behind the Blues in that Western Conference playoff race is the Calgary Flames. The Flames have lost a little momentum over the past month, with very little movement in the standings, and while they cannot quite jump into the post-season picture with a win over the New Jersey Devils on Thursday night, they can keep things mighty close.

Montreal making things interesting in the East

As the Blues stir things up in the West, the Montreal Canadiens have been busy piling up the wins and climbing the Eastern Conference standings over the course of the past month. Like the Blues, the Canadiens saw plenty of air time in the rumour mill leading up to the trade deadline earlier this month but ultimately stood pat. Meaningful hockey in late March was the goal, and they’ve achieved it in spades. Considering their current standing in the East’s second wild-card spot, extending their season into late April now feels attainable, too.

That’s not something we could’ve said a month ago when the Habs sat seventh in the Atlantic behind all but Buffalo, their 55 points 11 back of the third-place Lightning and six behind the Detroit Red Wings in the second wild-card spot. Eight wins and 18 points in 11 games later, and fresh off a high-scoring win over another streaking club in the Senators, the Canadiens are the only team with a point percentage better than the Blues over the past month. They have a one-point lead over the New York Rangers, are three points up on the Islanders, Blue Jackers, and Red Wings, sit just four points behind Ottawa after Tuesday’s clutch win, and have a legitimate shot at climbing higher in the coming weeks. A win over the Islanders Thursday night would further separate them from the chasing teams, and dates with the red-hot Avalanche on Sunday and the Blues Tuesday night offer up a pair of major tests.

Montreal’s offence has hit its stride, averaging 3.64 goals in the last month (tied with Ottawa). That’s more than a goal per game above what they produced in the month leading up the 4 Nations break. They’ve also cut their average goals against per game by more than a goal.

So, where does that leave their playoff hopes?

Toronto’s victory over the Avalanche got the Maple Leafs back on track and maintaining their 10-point cushion over Montreal, likely limiting the Canadiens’ post-season aspirations to a wild card spot. The same cannot be said about the Ottawa Senators, whose impressive 7-3-1 record over the past month, including a six-game win streak snapped by the Habs, has created more than a little breathing room in this race as far as teams on their tail. Getting back into the win column Thursday night against Colorado would go a long way in Ottawa’s ability to keep the pressure on Toronto and Tampa Bay.

Elsewhere in the East, the Carolina Hurricanes — whose past month has been anything but quiet, considering the Mikko Rantanen saga — won’t be catching Washington for the top spot in the Metropolitan, but thanks to their .727 point percentage over the past month and a seven-game win streak, they’re sitting pretty in second place. While that hot streak hasn’t exactly shaken up the standings the way the Canadiens, Senators, and Blues have, it does make them one of the hottest teams of the past month and an interesting squad to watch down the stretch all the same.

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