Breaking down Rantanen’s slow offensive start with Hurricanes
Rantanen has been quiet offensively to start his Hurricanes career, with one goal and three points in seven games.
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It has only been a month since the Carolina Hurricanes acquired Mikko Rantanen in a seismic trade with the Colorado Avalanche. However, there is growing speculation that the star forward could switch teams again by the March 7 trade deadline.
Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported Saturday that the Hurricanes have made an offer to Rantanen that is “into the nine digits (per season).” Rantanen, according to Friedman, is still processing the sudden change and needs time before deciding. Carolina, however, does not have that luxury.
Rantanen has been quiet offensively to start his Hurricanes career, with one goal and three points in seven games. The Hurricanes are 3-4-1 since trading for Rantanen, who missed one game because of a lower-body injury. (Meanwhile, Martin Necas, who went to Colorado in the trade, has nine points in 10 games as Nathan MacKinnon’s new wingman.)
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Although Rantanen’s scoring pace is down considerably since coming to Carolina, he has been the Hurricanes’ most dangerous player. He leads the team in scoring chances (26), offensive-zone possession time (6:49), slot-pass completions (21) and one-timer attempts (10) over the past month.
“He has fit in very well to the way we play, creating some tremendous chances around the net for himself and his linemates,” Hurricanes general manager Eric Tulsky told The Athletic. “A couple of posts and some great saves have kept it from showing up on the scoresheet yet, but we can all see that the points will come.”
Hurricanes coach Rod Brind’Amour has tethered Rantanen to fellow Finn Sebastian Aho on the team’s top line. They have generated 62.9 per cent of the expected goals at even strength in almost 90 minutes of shared ice time. Scoring chances are 51-30 in favour of Carolina during those minutes (45-27 at five-on-five).
Despite that territorial advantage, the Hurricanes have been outscored 7-6 at even strength with Rantanen and Aho on the ice. Goals are 4-4 at five-on-five.
“We’ve definitely had some chances and looks,” Aho told reporters. “I don’t know if it’s puck luck or what. Sometimes, you try too hard because you want to succeed right away so bad, so maybe you’re not relaxed when you have a chance. But he’s an unbelievable hockey player. He’s fit right in.”
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With all due respect to Aho, who is a high-end centre, he is not MacKinnon. Rantanen’s high-danger chances per game have dipped from 2.31 to 2.0 with the Hurricanes. Necas’ high-danger chances, on the other hand, have skyrocketed from 1.43 to 3.1 per game.
Rantanen no longer having MacKinnon and Cale Makar as his running buddies was sure to have some impact on his performance. MacKinnon (2.31), Necas (2.28) and Makar (2.19) are the top three players in the league in on-ice expected goals for per game in all situations since Jan. 25. Rantanen is 60th at 1.44 on-ice expected goals for per game since making his Hurricanes debut on that date. (Following his final game with the Avalanche, Rantanen ranked fifth with 1.98 on-ice expected goals for per game.)
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The Hurricanes have won a playoff series in each of the past six years, including the 2020 qualifying round during the pandemic post-season. But they have been unable to get past the conference final. (The Boston Bruins and Florida Panthers swept Carolina en route to the Stanley Cup Final in 2019 and 2023, respectively.)
Carolina’s inability to score consistently has been its downfall, which is why Tulsky brought in Rantanen — a two-time 100-point scorer who averages 1.25 points per game in the playoffs.
But will he be part of the team past March 7? The Hurricanes took a risk last season by trading for pending free agent Jake Guentzel, who ultimately signed with the Tampa Bay Lightning. (Carolina received a third-round draft pick from Tampa Bay for Guentzel the day before free agency started.)
It would be a tough look for Tulsky if he holds onto Rantanen past the deadline and fails to sign him to a new contract. Many contenders will be monitoring this situation closely over the next week and a half.
