Canadiens Mailbag: Who starts with Dach and Laine?
Eric Engels kick off his 10th season of Montreal Canadiens coverage with Sportsnet by diving into a mailbag loaded with intriguing questions.
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MONTREAL — No better way to kick off my 10th season of Montreal Canadiens coverage with Sportsnet than to dive into a mailbag loaded with intriguing questions.
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So long as Christian Dvorak is with the Canadiens, Alex Newhook is the most logical choice.
A healthy Dvorak slots into the bottom six exclusively as a centre, pushing Newhook to the wing. And if Newhook is going to the wing, it makes most sense for him to do it up the lineup.
Newhook can still continue part of his development at centre this way, too, helping Kirby Dach with faceoff responsibilities on their respective strong sides on the second line. He also has the speed and offensive skill to complement both Dach and Patrik Laine well.
It’s also relevant that Newhook is a lefty in a top-six forward group that’s predominantly right-handed.
That said, don’t be surprised if there’s a bit of a revolving door next to Dach and Laine as the season rolls along.
At any given point — and certainly at some points — any of Joshua Roy, Brendan Gallagher, Josh Anderson and even Joel Armia could be options, depending on which team the Canadiens are matching up against, where they’re playing and who’s healthy and available to them.
Those players will suddenly become the most logical choices if Dvorak is traded at a later point this season and Newhook needs to fill a role lower down as the only left-handed centre remaining.
I feel Lane Hutson is going to earn his place with the Canadiens straight out of training camp and I don’t believe it’ll have anything to do with management being concerned about his exposure in the AHL.
I just think Hutson’s game is already suited for the NHL and that his skill will be accentuated by players who can think and execute at, or above, his level and speed, and I’m confident that’s going to show throughout the long lead up to the season.
In the event that Hutson stumbles at some point, I don’t think the Canadiens will fear sending a player of his profile to the AHL for a stint.
I don’t think they should fear it, either.
Hutson has been an undersized player at every level, his skill has made him a target no matter where he’s played, and none of that has stopped him from arriving at this point relatively unscathed.
Now, this point is different for obvious reasons. Hutson will be regularly targeted by bigger, stronger men, whether he plays in Montreal or Laval, and that will be a greater challenge than the ones he has already faced.
But the five-foot-10, 162-pound defenceman — that’s how he’s listed for now, but I suspect those numbers might look a bit more inflated after the Canadiens run through physicals and have their files updated — is a feisty player who’s proven he’s willing to stand up for himself, and the Canadiens will do what they must to protect him on the ice.
Sheltering Hutson from the AHL wouldn’t be protecting his development. If that proves to be the best place for him at one point or another, sometimes facing that type of adversity is exactly what’s necessary to advance.
I don’t believe the Canadiens are concerned about him playing in either league. And if Huston’s the player he appears to be, he’ll thrive in either environment.
I just happen to think he’ll be in the NHL environment because he’ll have earned it on his own.
I’d give an edge to Jake Evans but don’t expect any of that to be sorted out in short order.
Michael Pezzetta has value to the Canadiens right now, but that value could diminish slightly if one of, or both, Florian Xhekaj and Luke Tuch show NHL readiness.
I don’t know if they’ll do that immediately in training camp, but I don’t think it’s a stretch that one, or both, make Pezzetta more expendable in the near future.
As for David Savard, I think if it were up to him he’d be a Canadien for life.
But even Savard knows he’s getting boxed out by younger players who need to gain experience for the team to get to where it intends to inevitably go.
For that reason — and several others, including his profile as a fearless, big, versatile, right-handed veteran — he will be high up on every trade board that exists. Not only is it likely he moves; he could move sooner than expected if both David Reinbacher and Logan Mailloux have the types of training camps that force the Canadiens to go to market with Savard earlier than they’d be planning to.
Not that I’m suggesting Savard will be moved before the season starts. I’m just considering the possibility (without guaranteeing it) that he could move before Christmas if the Canadiens feel they can redeem some value and not only adequately replace him in their lineup but also potentially even upgrade on him internally.
There are also scenarios that could see Savard remain with the Canadiens until his contract expires next June — maybe the kids don’t prove ready for full-time NHL duty, maybe injuries force the team to hold Savard, maybe he proves so vital to the team’s playoff chances that his value becomes greater to the Canadiens than it does to any other team on the trade market ahead of the deadline.
But even if Savard stays with the Canadiens beyond that point, I can’t see there being space for him in Montreal beyond this season.
I considered leaving Kevin’s questions for the family thread, but they were thought-provoking ones that I’m sure a lot of fans are wondering about as well. So I figured I’d address them here.
My first thought is that there does appear to be a correlation between being among the 16 most-penalized teams and missing the playoffs. At least going by recent trends.
Last season, 10 of the 16 most penalized teams missed.
Granted, Florida was the most penalized team and Edmonton the 10th-most penalized team and we know how their seasons ended.
But I digress…
There were 10 of 16 that missed, just as there were 10 of 16 that missed in 2022-23 and nine of 16 that missed in 2021-22.
Clearly, the Canadiens, who finished with the fifth-most penalties taken in the league last season, have to address this if they’re going to take the steps they expect to take this season.
As for how they do it, I can only think of one definitive way: Each individual just has to do their part to stay out of the box.
All the other things I can think of are logical or theoretical, but nearly impossible to substantiate with facts.
You’d think having the puck more would be a solution, but that isn’t reflected in the stats. You’d think there’s a correlation between the Canadiens being 29th in Corsi and being as penalized as they were, but Florida and Edmonton ranked second and third, respectively, in Corsi and still ranked in the top-10 in penalties taken.
I’m not sure age has much to do with this problem, either. You could argue the Canadiens took so many penalties because they were among the youngest and least experienced teams in the league, but continuing to use veteran teams like Edmonton and Florida as examples shows that theory doesn’t really wash.
Neither does the one that suggests having better players and more depth this season will keep the Canadiens from taking as many penalties as they did last season.
It’s hard to come up with any data-driven suggestion that will enable the Canadiens to tackle this problem.
I think the players being more familiar with each other and more connected within their system can help. I think the team having a better concept of how it wants to play and being better equipped to execute its style can help, too. And I believe head coach Martin St. Louis will have to be intent on making early-season examples of players who habitually step out of line and into the box.
But none of that guarantees this problem ceases.
Again, nothing really can, aside from each individual making a conscientious effort to avoid taking penalties.
I know it’ll be an area of emphasis for the Canadiens do be more disciplined — especially when it comes to stick and interference infractions — but I’m curious as to what they’ll emphasize in order to obtain those results.
It’s a question that has to be put to the coaches and the players, and I’ll be happy to put it to them when we’re officially back in action.
Meanwhile, you’d think being 10th in penalties drawn would help offset some of the damage done by being so undisciplined, but the Canadiens were one of 10 teams to miss the playoffs despite being top-16 in penalties drawn.
Go figure.
The common denominator here is obviously bad special teams, which the Canadiens had on the whole, even if there were portions of the season over which they excelled both on the power play and on the penalty kill.
Why will they be better on special teams this season? I don’t know that they will be.
But I expect the Canadiens to improve considerably on the power play, with Dach healthy and Laine, Hutson and Mailloux potentially joining the fray.
They scored on 17.5 per cent of their power-play opportunities last season, but that was with one unit scoring roughly 98 per cent of their goals. Now they have a second unit.
The penalty kill is another story. I know it doesn’t seem like asking too much for it to perform better than killing off only 76.5 per cent of its penalties, especially when they killed off 79.9 per cent of them and were ninth best in the category over the second half of last season.
But Jordan Harris and Johnathan Kovacevic being traded leaves a void in this department that must be filled.
Taking less penalties can only help. As would better goaltending (Sam Montembeault ranked 50th among goalies to have made at least 25 appearances in shorthanded save percentage while Cayden Primeau ranked 47th among goaltenders who made at least 15 appearances).
The obvious answer is Mikko Rantanen, but I don’t think his name will be on the board for much longer.
The expectation is he’ll re-sign in Colorado.
If and when Rantanen does, I don’t know where the attention for the Canadiens really shifts.
I know everyone assumes that because Kent Hughes said at his end-of-season press conference that the summer of 2025 could be even bigger for the Canadiens than the one they were about to embark on it means they’ll go big-game hunting on the market, but I don’t believe that’s what Hughes was necessarily suggesting.
My own read on it is that he was more so attempting to temper expectations for what the Canadiens could do over the past few months than trying to elevate expectations for what they could do next summer.
It’s not that I think the GM isn’t hoping for the Canadiens to take key steps this season, giving him the incentive he needs to pull off some big moves that would help propel them to contender status sooner. It’s just that I don’t believe he was trying to suggest that 2025 is necessarily the summer he’ll be going all in on the top free agents available.
That doesn’t mean Hughes won’t go shopping come July 1, 2025.
Given how far away we are from there — and how many things are going to happen in between — it’s hard to make specific projections this soon.
But I’d be looking at some of the veteran talent that’s likely to be available and seeing if it fits with the needs. In glancing over the list, there are more than a few names I see that are likely on the Canadiens’ radar.
I think both Anderson and Gallagher could surprise people in a positive way this season.
They were destined for bottom-six roles regardless of Laine’s addition, but now that he’s there, they’re more insulated within those roles.
That matters.
If Gallagher and Anderson are to be as effective as they can be as part of a grind line (likely centred by Jake Evans), having a top-six above them that forces the opposition to split its defensive focus is essential.
I understand it’s a lot of money to be paying for tertiary scoring, but the Canadiens have that money right now and both those players can provide that — and bring a style of play that helps wear down the opposition — from a position that will offer them easier matchups. People are going to have to accept that, from that role, the scoring on its own won’t justify the money being paid to them.
As long as people understand what to expect from Gallagher and Anderson in their roles, I think they’ll be pleasantly surprised on the impact they’ll be making on the ice. Neither player will necessarily be positioned to score at levels they once did, but scoring won’t (and shouldn’t be) the only measure of their impact.
Adam Engstrom.
I don’t think the odds are in his favour to make the Canadiens out of training camp but, from everything I’ve heard recently, it wouldn’t surprise me even a little if he saw NHL action this season.
Nobody’s really talking about Engstrom right now. Especially with the Canadiens already having so many young, promising, higher-profile players emerging on their blue line.
But if this player is as good as the sources I’ve connected with have suggested he is, his name could be on the tip of everyone’s tongue over the coming weeks.
I don’t mind answering this right now but will caution that a lot can change before the first day of the season.
Assuming everyone is healthy, I can see it going this way:
FORWARDS:
Caufield-Suzuki-Slafkovsky
Laine-Dach-Newhook
Roy-Dvorak-Armia
Gallagher-Evans-Anderson
(Pezzetta extra)
Notes:
— I could see that top-six getting mixed around quite a bit. I expect we’ll see a fair amount of experimentation in training camp, with St. Louis already knowing what he can get out of Caufield, Suzuki and Slafkovsky as a line. I think we’ll see Caufield and Laine swap, I think we’ll see Slafkovsky and Newhook swap, and I expect we could even see Suzuki and Dach swap. I think we’ll see Roy get a look in there, too.
But my thinking is St. Louis starts the season with the lines above. I also think that, with that setup, the ice-time will be relatively evenly distributed for his top two lines.
— I don’t see a hierarchy in the bottom six. I see an energy-forechecking line with Gallagher-Evans-Anderson and a possession line with Roy-Dvorak-Armia and I expect both lines to play equally, unless one is clearly more effective than the other on a given night.
DEFENCE
Matheson-Guhle
Hutson-Savard
Xhekaj-Mailloux
(Struble-Barron extra)
Notes:
— I built these and erased them about 10 times before just leaving them as is because I think the pairings are going to be very fluid from game to game — and even from shift to shift. Performance in camp is ultimately going to dictate how this shakes out, and there’s no predicting how that will go. I wouldn’t be surprised by Reinbacher being there over someone else. I wouldn’t be surprised by Struble or Barron forcing their way in. I wouldn’t be surprised by Guhle and Matheson starting on separate pairs. Nothing would surprise me here.
GOALIES
Montembeault
Primeau
