Cap Comparables: How Lankinen’s five-year deal stacks up with other goalies

Given the tumult of the 2024-25 season, it seems there has been very little for the Vancouver Canucks to be truly excited about.

But between the incessant injuries, off-ice feuds and perplexingly sub-par performances, a bright spot emerged on the west coast: Goaltender Kevin Lankinen, who has backstopped the Canucks to a playoff position ahead of the trade deadline despite the noise circulating around Vancouver.

Lankinen has been heavily utilized in the absence of 2024 Vezina Trophy finalist Thatcher Demko — who didn’t make his season debut until December after recovering from a rare knee injury — and while Lankinen’s save percentage (.905) and goals-against average (2.53) are by no means top-of-the-league, his 19 wins and four shutouts have been enough for the Canucks to weather the regular-season storm thus far.

In doing so, the 29-year-old earned himself a five-year, $22.5 million contract that carries a $4.5-million cap hit — quite the raise for a goaltender who signed with the Canucks for just above league minimum before training camp.

It’s also the heftiest contract that Lankinen has pocketed, both in term and in value. Throughout his five-year NHL career, the most he’s earned against the cap was $2 million with the Nashville Predators and aside from a two-year stint with the Chicago Blackhawks, Lankinen had not guaranteed himself more than one year with a team.

It’s fair to wonder how this deal will age with a goalie who has been the backup for his entire NHL career. The Canucks have their No. 1 netminder in Demko locked up until 2026, but in the years since he’s signed his contract he’s struggled to remain healthy. This season, the Canucks have handed Lankinen the heaviest workload he’s seen and with just four more starts, he’ll have surpassed his career-high for appearances.

With the cap expected to rise significantly over the next three seasons, landing Lankinen at $4.5 million per year isn’t necessarily egregious, but how common is it to commit to a tested but mostly unproven goalie for five years?

Let’s browse some contracts with similar term given to goalies and look at how their output, experience and utilization compare to Lankinen.

Mackenzie Blackwood, Colorado Avalanche
Contract: Five years, $26.25 million ($5.25 million AAV), signed in 2024

Shortly after he was traded from the San Jose Sharks to the Avalanche in December, Blackwood inked an extension with his new club, proving himself worthy with just four starts in Denver. His eight years of NHL experience at 28, including two seasons with a starter’s workload, trump Lankinen’s five, but Blackwood has also been marred with inconsistency throughout that time. This season he’s managed to bounce back and, like Lankinen, has performed well for both the Sharks and the Avalanche — his .917 combined save percentage among the top this season — earning him a nearly $3-million raise to kick in next year.

Unlike Lankinen — who will likely serve as a 1B for the Canucks, at the very least sharing the crease with Demko — Blackwood is the Avs’ starting goaltender, and his salary reflects that as he’ll make three-quarters of a million more than Lankinen next season. He’s also the Avalanche’s main commitment between the pipes for the foreseeable future since backup Scott Wedgewood is in the final year of a two-year contract, so it’s reasonable that Chris MacFarland and Co. surrendered some term.

Joey Daccord, Seattle Kraken
Contract: Five years, $25 million ($5 million AAV), signed 2024

Since seeing the steady decline of Philipp Grubauer, the Kraken have placed their faith in Daccord by signing him to a contract extension last October. Prior to last season, Daccord was completely untested in the bigs. Unlike Lankinen, who had fewer seasons under his belt but with an expanded role, Daccord was used primarily as a third-stringer and had just 19 NHL appearances across four seasons. He popped off in 2023-24, however, and got the start in 50 games while managing to post a .916 save percentage and 2.46 goals-against average with three shutouts, which earned him his payday.

Daccord has put up better numbers than Lankinen this season on a Kraken team worse off in the standings than the Canucks. His .916 save percentage and 2.49 goals-against average in 38 games has provided the Kraken with some stability between the pipes, and he’s on pace to meet or exceed his games played this season as Seattle’s starter. Even though Grubauer is on the books for another two seasons, Daccord has cemented himself as the Kraken’s undisputed No. 1 and barring a significant change, he’ll likely remain their No. 1 for the entirety of his five-year contract.

Joonas Korpisalo, Ottawa Senators
Contract: Five years, $20 million ($4 million AAV), signed in 2023

When the Senators signed Korpisalo as a free agent to a longer-term deal, they did so with the intention that he serve as their starting goalie. Korpisalo had felt that his talents weren’t being utilized in Columbus, where he served as backup to Elvis Merzlikins, so after a brief stint in L.A., he signed for five years with the Senators, who had been in constant search for a reliable starter. Having never played more than 39 games in a season across eight years in the NHL, Korpisalo posted similar (if not better) numbers to Lankinen. Between Columbus and Los Angeles, the then-28-year-old had a combined save percentage of .917 in 39 games in 2022-23. Lankinen has never reached that many games, nor that high of a save percentage, in his career.

Korpisalo’s production dropped off after signing, however, and he finished his singular season in Ottawa with 55 games and a .890 save percentage — the second-lowest of his career. He was traded in the off-season to Boston, where he serves now as backup to Jeremy Swayman and has yet to see a bounce-back in production across his 19 appearances.

Thatcher Demko, Vancouver Canucks
Contract: Five years, $25 million ($5 million AAV), signed in 2021

This is where things get tricky in Vancouver. The Canucks signed Lankinen to a very similar deal to the one they signed No. 1 Demko to back in 2021. With Demko’s contract set to expire at the end of next season, the five-year term for Lankinen is curious for the Canucks. When Demko signed his five-year, $25-million contract, he was in a similar spot as Lankinen: A few years of NHL experience, but mostly as a backup or as a 1B goalie. He was billed as the successor to Jacob Markstrom and showed flashes of brilliance during the playoff bubble and all-Canadian season, so the longer-term deal seemed like a correct fit at the time.

He’s since gone on to be a superstar starter in the crease for the Canucks, albeit with some hiccups. He was the Vezina Trophy runner-up in 2023-24 after posting a .918 save percentage, 2.45 goals-against average and five shutouts. His skill has, at times, been clouded by injuries and there are question marks around his ability to stay healthy enough to serve as the star No. 1 he’s shown himself to be.

By the time Demko is due his next contract, Lankinen will still be under club control for another four years.

What we’ve seen while comparing similar contracts is that most goalies committing to these deals are doing so with the expectation that they take the starting goalie gig. Filling in for Demko, Lankinen has managed to maintain his career standard of play with a larger workload. Committing to Lankinen for five years is a definite risk, especially with an elite starter already under club control and likely due a raise come his next deal. But it’s also true that Demko’s health remains a major area of concern for the team, and so the situation between the pipes for the Canucks will be an interesting one to watch in the coming years.

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