Chicago Cubs Top 37 Prospects

Shaw is among the twitchiest, most fun to watch players in the minors. A 5-foot-9 stick of dynamite who plays with all-out effort, he has blazed through the minors with relative ease, reaching Triple-A toward the end of his first full pro season. Combined between Double-A Tennessee and Triple-A Iowa, Shaw slashed .284/.379/.488 with 44 extra-base hits (21 of them homers) and 31 steals in 42 attempts, then he was the best hitter on Team USA’s Premier12 roster in the fall.

Perhaps most importantly, the 2024 season gave us growing clarity around Shaw’s defensive fit and ability. Shaw exclusively played the middle infield as an amateur, but as a pro, he has begun seeing reps at third base. Shaw sometimes struggles with throwing accuracy and he lacks laser-like arm strength from deep in the hole, but he is otherwise growing into a tremendous third base defender. His lightning-quick exchange helps him shamelessly throw two- and three-hoppers to first base on those deeper throws, his range is exceptional, and he’s capable of some very acrobatic stuff. Especially if his feel for throwing from third continues to improve, his ceiling as a defender there is very high. Shaw has also continued to play some shortstop and second base. Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner are entrenched on the Cubs’ middle infield right now, but the departure of Isaac Paredes in the Kyle Tucker trade clears the runway for Shaw to seize the Opening Day job at third, though he may have to beat out Rule 5 pick Gage Workman during spring training.

Shaw is also an enormously entertaining hitter. He swings like a turbo-charged Sal Bando — closed stance, closed stride, with hands that load very low — except with a huge leg kick, one that is so big and elaborate that it’s often hard for him to time. He gets beaten by fastballs up around the belt fairly often, in part because of the path his hands take as a result of his low load, but mostly because his front foot is often late getting down. When he’s on time, Shaw is capable of doing all-fields damage, not only because of the explosion created by his whole-body swing, but because of how quick and powerful his wrists are. There are times when the finish to Shaw’s swing is abbreviated, à la Chase Utley, but he still smacks the crap out of the ball. That said, opposing pitchers can neuter his power by executing down-and-away from him, where his bat path ends up driving the baseball into the ground; this is why Shaw’s game power is graded below his raw. A fair bit of slider chase adds some volatility to Shaw’s offensive forecast, but especially with a much more stable and enthusiastic understanding of his defense, he’s tracking like an above-average everyday player and foundational young talent.

Alcántara’s time is nigh, as he enters his final option year in 2025. His looming lack of roster flexibility might force the Cubs, who even after effectively swapping Kyle Tucker in for Cody Bellinger in their outfield, are still flush with big league outfielders at the time of publication, to make a trade that clears room for him to be rostered on Opening Day 2025. That would preserve that final option in the event that Alcántara struggles to find his big league footing and absolutely needs another stretch at Triple-A Iowa to get himself right. This course of events is plausible because Alcántara is still fairly raw and has all the physical markers of a hitter who might require a prolonged adjustment period to actually start hitting.

At a freaky 6-foot-6, Alcántara’s swing is very long and difficult to time. He tends to be late on fastballs and struggles to pull them in the air, but he has plus bat speed and the power to leave the yard to the opposite field even when he isn’t on time. He has plus measureable pop at age 22 and he isn’t even close to being totally filled out; his frame has room for another 15-20 pounds of muscle before Alcántara’s mobility would be threatened by his size. Compounding the hit tool volatility here, however, is Alcántara’s tendency to miss secondary pitches, as he doesn’t identify or adjust to them all that well and had miss rates north of 40% against sliders and changeups in 2024. Alcántara also drives the ball into the ground a lot; his grounder rate was 50% in 2024, but he still managed to have 35 extra-base hits in 111 minor league games (he missed a few weeks with a shoulder injury) because he hits the ball so hard. Center fielders whose contact profiles resemble Alcántara’s include Jose Siri, Michael A. Taylor, James Outman, and Luis Robert Jr., guys whose performance tends to vary a lot year-to-year, and the same will likely be true of Alcántara.

The thing that stabilizes Alcántara’s profile is his center field defense, which has become quite good. He’s a plus runner with plus range and ball skills, and he plays with a fearlessness around the warning track. He’s gotten very good at the minutiae of the position, like deke’ing baserunners or running to a spot to position himself to throw before he’s collected the baseball. With Pete Crow-Armstrong around, Alcántara is more likely to be a potential Gold Glove corner outfielder in Chicago, but here he’s evaluated as a center fielder because, league-wide, that’s the position at which he has the most value. There’s bust risk here, but especially if his ability to lift the ball starts to improve, Alcántara is going to have some All Star-caliber power-hitting seasons and be a very valuable everyday outfielder.

Horton was a draft-eligible sophomore who was seen as a “tip of the iceberg” prospect, as he missed his freshman year due to TJ and didn’t focus solely on pitching until pro ball. It seemed as though things were clicking for him at a different level toward the end of the 2022 college season, and the Cubs were emboldened to select him seventh overall that year. In his 2023 pro debut, Horton posted a .996 WHIP across 88.1 innings, reaching Double-A and sustaining the velocity surge he showed during his breakout junior year despite throwing more innings. That didn’t continue in 2024, as Horton’s velo backed up and was more in the 92-95 range before he was shut down with a shoulder strain in late May after just nine starts. He missed the rest of the season and was re-examined during the offseason to see if he was ready to begin a throwing program. His status for the start of 2025 is up in the air.

Horton’s delivery is fairly violent and indeed looks tough on his shoulder. Other aspects of his fastball are unexceptional, so it’s important for Horton to throw hard for that pitch to be effective. His secondary pitches are what drive his mid-rotation projection here. Horton’s slider and changeup both generate plus-plus rates of miss. His slider has rare velocity and two-plane tilt (it’s a weapon against both left- and right-handed hitters), and his screwball changeup gives him another way to get lefties out. Horton will probably work inefficiently as a starter unless his peak velocity returns, and will have to pitch off his secondary stuff a ton. He’s still likely to be an impact pitcher, but suddenly his list of career arm maladies has grown, forcing Horton toward the back of the overall Top 100.

Rojas hit so well during 2023 extended spring training that the Cubs sent him to Low-A before the complex-level season had barely began. He hit .268/.345/.404 in 70 games there, and the Cubs sent him straight to High-A South Bend when camp broke in 2024. There Rojas slashed .245/.310/.336 as 19-year-old. He has gorgeous hitting hands, great rhythm and timing, and advanced feel for all-fields contact. He really struggles with two things: backfoot breaking balls and elevated fastballs. The degree to which Rojas has struggled to connect with both of these pitch types was enough to pump the breaks on his 2024 midseason Top 100 addition. Though Rojas’ granular contact data is very strong (he had a 90% in-zone rate in 2024, for instance, which is great), there are very clearly two ways to get him out and he is very likely to require eventual adjustment to deal with at least one of them. He’s still a very exciting offensive prospect, there is just less certainty in this aspect of his prospectdom.

Rojas has the athleticism, range, and actions to project as a viable shortstop, but he needs polish, as you might expect of a teenage shortstop playing a level above what is typical. Rojas’ internal clock is a little slow and he struggles with short hops right now, but the foundation to stay at short is there. He still has an everyday shortstop projection, it’s just a riskier version of it than was previously considered here. His medium frame means he’s unlikely to develop huge power — this guy doesn’t have Elly De La Cruz’s ceiling or anything like that — but he has the talent of an average regular via a blend of contact, power and average shortstop defense.

It’s typical for contact prodigies like Triantos to be at least partially discovered because of their data — they rarely swing and miss during high school showcase play, and across several events, they generate a large enough sample to flag them because of this. In Triantos’ case, the pandemic made it hard for him to accumulate such a sample, and yet the Cubs boldly gave him just over $2 million to sign as a second rounder rather than go to Virginia. Triantos has more or less run the minor league table as a plus or better contact hitter with all-fields doubles power. He’s now reached Triple-A and sports a .289/.349/.417 career minor league line. He’s been among the best pure contact hitters in the minors since he turned pro and has bounced around the 45-50 FV range the last couple of years as his defensive home has gotten sorted out.

For a while he looked so rough at 2B/3B that he seemed destined for LF/DH, but the further and further Triantos has gotten from a 2023 meniscus injury, the better he has looked at second. He has below-average hands, but he’s in his physical prime and as rangey and mobile as he’s ever been, and should be able to play there. He has also been given reps in center field, and while he’s a surprisingly fast runner given some of his other athletic limitations, the position is a stretch for him. We speculatively have left field as part of his future mix. Triantos doesn’t have the power of a first division second baseman, so versatility should be part of his game; he can’t handle the hot shots at third base, so left field it is.

Let’s not lose sight of the apple here — Triantos can really hit. He has great bat control and his best swings have huge finish behind him, though he’s definitely looser than he is explosive. Capable of pulling up-and-in pitches with power, Triantos is a line drive singles hitter in the bulk of the zone. He’s a proactive swinger but isn’t so chase prone that it threatens to sabatoge his overall production. The 2025 season will be Triantos’ 40-man platform year. Whether he can play first base or left field might dictate whether he’s easy to roster or necessary to trade.

Ballesteros is a husky catcher who signed for $1.2 million back in 2021 as a bat-first prospect who needed substantial development as a defender. He’s raked as he’s climbed the minors (he’s posted a .279/.366/.452 career line and has reached Triple-A), and though he still isn’t an ironclad catching defender, Ballesteros has improved enough back there to maintain projection at the position.

Ballesteros’ best defensive attribute is his arm accuracy. He doesn’t have an all-world hose, but he has a surprisingly quick release for a guy his size and throws a lot of accurate one-hoppers to second in the 1.95-2.00 second range, sometimes from his knees. His receiving has improved to a place of viability, but his ball-blocking, especially to his left, mostly has not. Though this problem was much more pronounced during the 2024 Arizona Fall League than it was during the regular season, it’s an issue that might prevent him from catching pitchers whose stuff is apt to expose his issues, and in his particular case that means guys whose stuff tends to finish in the dirt.

Were Ballesteros more of a lock to catch, then he’d have a great argument to be in the Top 100 because he pretty comfortably hits enough to profile as a primary catcher. As a part-time first baseman or DH, though, he falls a tad short — literally. At just 5-foot-8 and built like Alejandro Kirk, Ballesteros lacks the typical physicality and power of a big league 1B/DH. He has roughly average raw power and zero physical projection; his body is maxed out and it’d be surprising if he got much stronger even though he’s still only 21. While Ballesteros is a good all-fields contact hitter and great at making inflight adjustments to breaking stuff, he has become more and more chase prone against high fastballs as he’s climbed the minors. His 36% chase rate against fastballs is way above what’s typical for hitters generally, let alone against fastballs that tend to have lower chase rates than pitch types more often meant to make hitters go fishing. His chase against other pitch types is more typical.

This forecast for Ballesteros rounds down on his offense a bit more than last list cycle, and puts him in more of an average contact and power territory with potentially below-average on base skills looming as he faces more and more quality fastballs. Combine that with a potentially short timeline of athletic viability, and Ballesteros looks more like a solid part-time player who catches once a week and gets a couple starts against righties, which should still allow him to amass 300-400 annual plate appearances of roughly average offense. The 2025 season is Ballesteros’ 40-man platform year, and the Cubs have acquired veteran catching that now slides him down the current catching depth chart. If he can improve as a defender, then perhaps he’ll be the Cubs’ best option behind the dish at some point in 2025, but for now he looks more likely to debut in 2026.

A Canadian outfielder originally drafted by the Padres and traded to the Cubs for Yu Darvish, Caissie’s power output exploded in 2023 and held firm in 2024 even though his underlying power data backed up quite a bit. He still generated plus raw pop, but Caissie’s peak exit velocities were below the elite numbers he posted in 2023. It’s important for Caissie to get to big power because he has other limitations as a hitter. For instance, he is very vulnerable to fastballs located at the top of the zone. His contact rates are near the bottom of what is usually acceptable from a good big league corner outfielder. With elite power, that’s okay. With plus power, Caissie looks more like a platoon option that an everyday cleanup hitter. He’s still just 22 and Caissie has long been the sort of prospect who could break late; he’s a cold weather guy and didn’t play baseball under lights at night until he turned pro. This grade pulls him back to the lefty platoon role, but leaves room for him to reclaim the power-hitting clout from last year.

Birdsell had Tommy John surgery in high school, spent his freshman year at Texas A&M, his sophomore year at San Jacinto, and then finally ended up at Texas Tech for his junior and senior seasons. He was selected by the Twins in the 11th round of the 2021 draft, but an ill-timed shoulder injury resulted in him returning for his senior season, and a year later he was a fifth round selection by the Cubs.

Birdsell has been durable and consistent in pro ball, and reached Triple-A with little resistance. In 2024, he worked 135.2 innings and walked just 31 batters. He has an ultra-short arm action, and the simplicity of his entire operation helps him stay consistent. Birdsell attacks with a ton of downhill mid-90s fastballs and a curt, 88-90 mph two-plane slider that he almost always puts right on the corner of the plate. Birdsell doesn’t really have a weapon to deal with lefties. He has a low-80s curveball, but it doesn’t have the huge depth or arm-side tilt of a platoon-neutral curve. Vulnerability to lefties will prevent Birdsell from being an impact mid-rotation type, but he’s almost certainly going to be an innings-eating no. 4/5 starter.

Ramon signed in June of 2023, when he was 20 years old, and began 2024 on the complex, where he (and Yahil Melendez) were the tallest, most projectable young hitters on the Sloan Park backfields. Though not especially explosive, Ramon has a terrific skills foundation and a broad-shouldered build that might allow him to add significant strength as he matures. This guys checks an awful lot of boxes we care about. He’s a switch-hitter who has demonstrated feel for contact, he has overt physical projection that might lead to more power, and he’s a good defensive player. Ramon is a very graceful and athletic shortstop, especially for a 6-foot-3 guy, and if it weren’t for his lack of speed, he’d comfortably project to stay there. For now, he’s projected as a plus third base defender.

Ramon’s swing is already short to the ball for a young, physically green guy his size. He’s on time to pull as both a left- and right-handed hitter, and his lefty swing has natural loft. If Ramon shows up to 2025 camp having gotten meaningfully stronger during the offseason, he could blow up. If there’s a volatile aspect of his profile that threatens to undermine his ascent, it’s his plate discipline. Though he’s behind the developmental curve as he approaches his 22nd birthday, Ramon only has a year-and-a-half of pro ball under his belt, and his frame and (hopefully) his feel for the zone will both improve via strength training and reps. We’re excited enough about his feel to hit, defense, and long-term physical projection to put Ramon in this higher-upside FV tier.

Neely, who came to the Cubs in the Mark Leiter Jr. trade at the 2024 deadline, is a gigantic guy who hopped around to a several schools (Texas, San Jacinto, Iowa Western, Ohio State) before pro ball. He has been developed solely as a reliever and posted double digit strikeouts per 9 IP up the entire minor league ladder, culminating in a 2024 big league debut with the Cubs after the trade.

Neely is a standard middle relief prospect. He sits 94-98 mph with plus vertical break and nearly perfect backspinning shape even though he releases from more of a three-quarters slot. He also has an 84-88 mph bullet-style slider that generated elite swing-and-miss in the minors last year. If he can ever learn to locate it more consistently, he’ll play a higher leverage role.

Arias signed with Toronto as a shortstop but never took a pro at-bat for the Blue Jays. Instead, he was released in the middle of 2020 and moved to the mound around the time he signed with the Cubs in early 2021. He had a breakout 2023 season split between Low- and High-A, during which he made 22 starts, pitched 81.1 innings, struck out 110 guys, and was added to the 40-man roster in the offseason. The Cubs proactively moved Arias to the bullpen in 2024, and he had a pretty rough year, especially after he was promoted to Iowa, where he walked a batter per inning. Arias has always struggled with walks, but because he was so athletic and new to pitching it was reasonable to project that he’d get better in this regard. He hasn’t even progressed to 40-grade control yet, and he’s still wild enough that it detracts from the effectiveness of his stuff, which is electric.

This is a funky, low-slot righty with a mid-90s sinker, a potentially plus-plus changeup, and a righty-dowsing slider. Arias’ best changeups have devastating finish and are nasty enough for him to miss bats right-on-right. His slot makes it tough for him to get on top of his 82-86 mph slider. It has frisbee shape, but its late, tight movement still makes it an effective bat-misser. Arias has the weapons to deal with hitters of either handedness and he has experience working multiple innings at a time. He’s still projected for an impact relief role here as a multi-inning weapon with plus stuff, but this is below where Arias has been on the last two Cubs farm updates because his control just hasn’t improved.

Wiggins was a lights out reliever as a freshman at Arkansas and looked like a potential future top 15 pick, but he struggled as a sophomore when he was moved into the rotation. Then Wiggins’ elbow barked and he had Tommy John not long before the start of the 2023 season, his draft year. He already had significant relief risk prior to the injury and this pushed things a little further in that direction. The Cubs took him in the second round and gave him $1.4 million, and Wiggins rehabbed until May of 2024, when he finally got into actual games again. The Cubs quickly shuttled him to High-A and he was dominant at the very end of the season, striking out 17 and allowing just four hits in his final 10 innings.

Wiggins’ rangy 6-foot-6 frame offers substantial projectability and creates a downhill angle on his 96-98 mph fastball. He lacks refined command, but his fastball really holds its plane through the zone and it doesn’t require pinpoint precision in order to be effective. His slider is a mid-80s two-plane breaker with significant depth, but Wiggins is very reliant on chase and only threw it in the zone 31% of the time last season; seasoned hitters might not be as apt to fish for it as A-ballers. His mid-80s changeup took a step forward in 2024 and generated a 42% in-zone whiff rate due to its late vertical depth and Wiggins’ ability to mirror his fastball arm speed. There’s enough here to justify a stater development track, though we still think the most likely outcome for Wiggins will be a late-inning relief role.

Mulé missed all of 2023 after having Tommy John surgery in March of that year, so 2024 was his professional debut. Mulé’s high caliber athleticism remains apparent, but his inability to throw strikes (17.9% walk rate) is the primary reason for his lackluster results over 52 frames between the complex and Myrtle Beach. Mulé’s quick arm produces a fastball that sits in the mid-90s right now, and he had more in the tank when working in short bursts in high school. Mulé still flashes the plus-plus slider that was mentioned in his write-up last year, but far too often its location is uncompetitive, or he gets on the side of it and it loses a degree of sharpness. His changeup will have notable depth and fade at its best, but his feel for landing it in the zone is still very much lacking (35% in-zone rate). Mulé looks bound for a single-inning relief role if he can keep his strike-throwing at a tenable level, with his elite athleticism and pure stuff offering a glimmer of hope for a leverage relief ceiling one day.

Aliendo is an athletic and angular catcher with an enormous arm and above-average pull power. He has an absolute hose, often popping sub-1.90 seconds on throws to second base and doing so with accuracy. His receiving and ball-blocking have long been way behind his arm, but they’re starting to catch up, especially the receiving and framing. Aliendo’s strikeout issues (over 30% K% in two years at Tennessee) are so bad that he can’t be a primary catcher despite rare power for the position. He’ll run into a few mistakes down the middle of the plate, but he’s a bottom of the scale contact hitter. He’s as allergic to sliders as a homeschooled zoomer is to nuts, missing them at a 47% rate. It caps his ceiling to a backup role, and Aliendo still needs some polish on defense to get there, which this FV grade expects he’ll add.

Franklin has made steady progress the last two seasons as he’s come off a torn patellar tendon. He’s capable of playing all three outfield spots (he’s plus in the corners), he doesn’t give away at-bats, he hits the ball hard (though often on the ground), and he plays with great effort and motor. Because none of his tools are plus, Franklin is a classic tweener outfielder. He hits with his feet very close together, and his swing is handsy, geared for low-ball contact, and produces an extreme opposite field fly ball tendency. Though Franklin’s hands are authoritative and his hard-hit rate (41%) is above-average, he probably won’t hit for much power with this swing, which makes him an OBP-driven fifth outfield type who is fine to roster and give 125-150 PA to against lefties and sinkerballers.

Noland had a busy freshman year at Arkansas. He played quarterback in four football games that fall, then finished the school year with a trip to the College World Series and SEC All-Freshman honors. He lost most of 2020 to the pandemic and much of 2021 to a forearm injury, returning in a bullpen capacity that year. He reclaimed a rotation spot in 2022, filling in for fellow Razorback Peyton Pallette, and made the most of his Friday starter role with a dominant senior season that earned him a ninth round selection by the Cubs. He has raced to Triple-A while efficiently mixing in six different pitches if you count his cutter, four-seamer and two-seamer as distinct offerings. Noland’s stuff isn’t sexy, but he mixes and commands it well, which is especially true of how he deploys his breaking stuff. He should debut as a spot starter and eventually take root in a backend starter role by virtue of his consistency.

Long had a breakout 2024, his first full pro season, as he hit 17 bombs in 114 games and got better from a strikeout standpoint after he was promoted to Double-A in the second half. Long followed that up with an OPS north of 1.000 in the Arizona Fall League. More importantly, he got reps at third base in Arizona. The Cubs are searching for a position for Long, who played both corner infield spots in college and has tried left field in pro ball. He played third more times (10) during the six-week AFL span than he did all regular season (eight). Long is a very tightly-wound athlete who is much more comfortable at first base than those other positions. He lacks the mobility of an average third baseman; he’s in same-aged Jake Burger territory in terms of his build and type of athleticism.

Long is a ferocious in-the-box rotator with plus power. The length of his swing causes him to inside-out a lot of fastballs. He has the juice to do damage that way, but it’s concerning how often he is late on mid-minors fastballs such that he’s driving them to right field. There isn’t a great sample to use as a guide here. Sometimes it’s helpful to look at splits versus big league-quality fastball velocities to get a better feel for how a player’s contact ability will trend as he climbs, but Long simply didn’t face enough 93-plus mph fastballs on tape for that. As such, we’re relying more heavily on the look here, and we’re pessimistic Long will continue on a 16.7% K%, 10% swinging strike, 75% contact clip. This puts pressure on him to play at least one other position because the contact/power combo for a snug first base fit probably won’t be there. He’s a prospect in the J.D. Davis mold.

Mathis crushed on Cape Cod in 2023 and posted a .335/.472/.650 line with more walks (46) than strikeouts (32) at the College of Charleston in 2024, which resulted in the Cubs taking him with the 54th overall pick and inking a slot deal ($1.68 million). While a quick glance at Mathis suggests he has some feel for the strike zone, there’s also a high degree of passivity in his approach. This past spring, Mathis only swung at 36% of the pitches he saw, and possibly more notable is the fact that he only swung at 58% of pitches in the heart of the zone (the college average is 73%). Nearly all of his home run power in games comes to the pull side, but he’s strong enough to drive doubles pop to all fields, and he can manipulate the bat to produce consistent contact when he does swing. Mathis will reside on the low end of the defensive spectrum, where he profiles to be an above-average defender at first base. Because there isn’t an outlier trait in his offensive profile and he’s bound for first base long-term, Mathis is a high floor/low ceiling depth type, a corner contact bat who needs to get in the weight room to produce the power we associate with his position.

McCullough carved at Division-II Wingate University, then boosted his pre-draft visibility with a stint on Cape Cod. He had a very successful first full season in pro ball split between Low- and High-A, as he struck out 108 in 86.1 innings across 21 starts. He began 2024 on the IL recovering from a 2023 knee surgery, finished his rehab in Arizona, was quickly moved up to Double-A and then was put on the IL again and stayed there for the rest of the year. He played in just four games and made just three starts.

When healthy, McCullough has the look of a potential no.4/5 starter. He has a riding 91-94 mph fastball that plays better than its pure velocity, as well as a low-80s bullet-style slider that he commands to the locations in which they’re most effective. His changeup flashed bat-missing action in 2023, though this was less true in his healthy 2024 window. McCullough stood a chance to climb into the 45 FV tier by the end of 2024; instead, we’re all waiting to see if he returns healthy in 2025.

Relegated to third base because some of his college teammates were really great shortstop defenders, Workman has successfully moved up the defensive spectrum as a pro; he is now an above-average shortstop defender and a 70-grade glove at third. Workman’s footwork and actions are incredible for a player his size. At a long-torso’d 6-foot-4, he has remarkable body control and an impact arm.

There are old scouting tropes about big-framed hitters and switch-hitters tending to develop late. Workman was both. He struggled to make contact for his whole career and struck out 38% of the time at Double-A in 2023, a terrifying rate. In 2024, at age 25, Workman made real progress in this area. He ditched hitting from the right side and his 27.5% K% was the lowest since he was at Low-A; he hit a BABIP-aided .280/.366/.476 with 18 home runs back at Erie. He has above-average raw power but is still whiffing a ton, especially against breaking stuff, and he’ll likely continue to strike out so much that it limits his big league role. But with the Cubs corner infield situation currently up in the air, he has an opportunity to play such great defense that he wins the job at the hot corner coming out of camp. His long-term role is as a strikeout prone utility infielder.

Melendez signed for $400,000 as a seventh rounder rather than go to Rice, and he’s one of quite a few interesting young hitters who were part of Chicago’s Arizona complex group in 2024, slashing .268/.395/.425 with 19 extra-base hits in 53 games. Melendez already has some of the most exciting power in the Cubs org. He has slightly above-average measurable raw pop already as a teenager (he turned 19 just after the season), he has rare size for a potential shortstop at a strapping 6-foot-3, and he also has an unusually compact swing and shorter levers than most hitters this size do.

Melendez isn’t the bendiest athlete and plays the game with a high center of gravity, which is evident both in his swing and on defense. This limits his ability to reach a lot of softer stuff in the bottom of he zone, which we worry will be a growing issue as he climbs. Melendez’s bat path just doesn’t allow him to scoop these pitches; he either needs to change that or get deeper into his lower body to connect with them, and it makes flexibility the key visual piece of Melendez’s evaluation to monitor. This issue extends to Melendez’s defense. At his size, he may not be a long-term fit at short no matter what, but his hands and feel for defense have improved during his year-and-a-half of pro ball. He’s a pessimistic “maybe” at short.

Lefty-hitting infielders with this kind of power projection don’t exactly grow on trees, but Melendez is volatile because of the hole in his swing, and he struck out quite a bit on the complex (28.4%). He has the upside that we’d typically associate with 40+ FV prospect, but the third base and strikeout risk here has us rounding down a touch.

Cowles came to Chicago in the Mark Leiter Jr. trade at the 2024 deadline and was added to the 40-man after the season. He posted a 142 wRC+ at Double-A Somerset prior to the trade (he broke his wrist days before he was dealt) and picked up reps in the Arizona Fall League, where he looked good at shortstop and was getting to power. Cowles’ improved 2024 strikeout rate is a bit of a mirage; he’s a power-over-hit type of guy with roughly average thump that he gets to because of the loft in his swing. A capable shortstop defender, Cowles is similar to Zack Short and should play a similar sixth infielder utility role.

Leigh finally crossed the 40-inning threshold in 2024, and though his velocity was way, way down early in the year, by September it had rebounded into the 93-97 mph range. Leigh has an explosive drop-and-drive delivery and whippy arm action that produces a naturally cutting fastball. An upper-70s power curve tunnels well off his heater, and Leigh has a distinct 81-85 mph slider too. He looks like a pretty standard middle reliever and should debut in 2025 if he can stay healthy.

The former $3 million signee repeated Low-A in 2024 and turned in a career year, slashing .269/.382/.406 with 37 extra-base hits and 44 stolen bases in 52 attempts on the season. Most importantly, Hernandez cut his strikeout rate quite a bit compared to his 2022-23 peak, which was up around 30%; he had a 19% rate after a mid-August promotion to South Bend. Hernandez’s swing is still really long. It’s whippy and powerful, but Hernandez’s feet are all over the place and it’s tough for him to time his whole operation. It’s going to be a big enough issue to prevent Hernandez from being an everyday shortstop, even though he otherwise has the tools to be. Hernandez is an excellent defender capable of highlight reel plays and throws from deep in the hole, he’s physically projectable, and he has big bat speed, but at age 21, he’s still a very raw hitter.

Cruz shined in a showcase setting as an amateur and was one of the first top bonus prospects from the 2024 class to be generally known throughout the scouting industry. He signed for $4 million in January 2024 and had a pretty rough DSL debut. He ran a sub-70% contact rate on the year and K’d 27.2% of the time, slashing .215/.326/.329. There’s still a great defensive foundation here. Cruz has gorgeous infield footwork and actions, turning the baseball around in the blink of an eye. He can make strong, accurate throws from all kinds of platforms and could eventually be a special defensive player. His swing can be a little noisy and long, something that has plagued a few of Chicago’s high-bonus shortstop prospects. Until Cruz shows contact improvement, he slots behind the other, similarly flawed players in the org who are ahead of him on the minor league ladder.

Lovich got $650,000 in the 11th round out rather than go to Arkansas. He’s a thin, wiry left-handed bat with enormous projection. He wasn’t overwhelmed by Instructional League arms, he tracks pitches well, his swing is fairly short for a hitter his size (though he’s still apt to go oppo), and he might end up with plus or better raw power at maturity. Lovich’s size will relegate him to a corner, but he pitched in high school and has the arm for right (and will probably have more at peak). Lovich really needs to hit because of his corner defensive fit, but his foundation as a hitter is strong enough to put him on the prospect radar based on his intructs look.

The Cubs paid Southisene $1,000,000 to bypass his commitment to Tennessee, and while we like him, we didn’t consider him a seven-figure prospect at draft time (Ty’s brother Tate, a 2025 draft prospect, is a much different story). Southisene plays with undeniable energy and hustle. He’s short, ultra-twitchy little guy with a rhythmic swing, a hand hitch trigger, average bat speed, and a pretty extreme opposite field tendency, which we worry means he’s late to the contact point. Southisense controls his body well on defense and should be a viable defender at shortstop, but our hit tool concerns keep him down with the other toolsy little guys at the bottom of the system.

The Cubs signed Cruz for $620,000 (the slot value at his pick was $826,000), which was enough for him to forgo his commitment to Miami. Cruz was born in the D.R. but went to high school in South Florida and showed impressive raw power at the Draft Combine in Phoenix (though he was one of the event’s slower runners). Cruz’s frame is very wiry and projectable, and he could have plus raw pop down the road. His combination of present juice and long-term physical projection is exciting, but we simply don’t know a ton about his contact ability right now. He wasn’t a showcase fixture and didn’t play complex-level ball after the draft; he didn’t take the field until postseason developmental activity, where no stats are kept. Cruz fires his hands low, which we think limits his ability to cover the middle-up part of the zone, especially against fastballs. How he develops in this area is key because we think he’ll end up at third base due to a lack of range. Cruz has soft hands on the dirt and enough arm for the left side of the infield, but it’s not a quick-twitch operation and his lateral range might deteriorate as his frame matures. This is a very high-variance prospect with power as his carrying tool.

Kilian has pitched in parts of three big league seasons but not enough to lose rookie eligibility. A 2019 eighth rounder out of Texas Tech, Kilian made stylistic changes to his pitching in pro ball, had a velo spike, and was sent from San Francisco to Chicago as part of the Kris Bryant trade. During the spring of 2023, Kilian’s fastball was touching 101, but it lasted for literally a couple of starts before a teres major strain shelved him until the middle of 2024. When Kilian came back, he was sitting 94. He attacks with a bunch of different breaking balls (cutter, sweeper, knuckle curve), only one of which is plus. Barring a velo rebound, Kilian looks like a spot starter.

Sanders had a down 2023 junior spring at South Carolina because of an injury to his knee and lower fibula that caused him pain during the season, even before he was shut down for most of May and after the draft. His 2024 pro debut came with an assignment to High-A South Bend, where Sanders has looked like he did in college, a spot starter or backend guy. He made 23 starts, pitched 96.2 total innings (exceeding five innings in just two starts all year) and posted a 4.66 ERA. Sanders’ command is important to his success because he has a below-average fastball with mediocre velocity and movement. He can get ahead of hitters by landing his breaking balls for strikes, and Sanders uses his changeup as an action pitch in the zone to garner weak contact early in counts. His walk rate in 2024 (10.3% prior to a one-start promotion to Tennessee) was pretty disappointing and needs to improve if he is going to be a true no. 5 starter. The Cubs tend to shorten the arm actions of their pitching prospects, which hasn’t happened yet with Sanders. His size and the ease of his delivery should at least help him eating innings. Here he’s evaluated as a future spot starter.

Bello tossed 89.2 innings in Myrtle Beach’s rotation in 2024 to the tune of a 3.21 ERA while striking out 25.1% of the hitters he faced and limiting his walks to a 7.7% clip in his age-20 season. Bello’s pitch mix is plenty deep to warrant the starter development path, and he can be expected to add a few ticks more velocity on his fastballs as his frame matures. Bello has feel for pounding the zone with his heaters, but the same can’t be said for his secondary offerings. His curveball will routinely showcase plus depth, but he leans heavily on chase because of his inability to land it in the zone with any frequency (39% in-zone in 2024). Bello also has a slider and changeup, with the slider also flashing solid teeth at times, while his changeup relies on late, subtle depth to be effective. As is the case with his curveball, he depends on hitters expanding their zone, as he’s unable to land his slider (47% in-zone) and changeup (32% in-zone) in the zone on a regular basis. Bello has enough projectability and existing stuff to be forecast in a depth starter role, but he’ll need to harness his secondaries in the zone more often to consistently get more advanced hitters out and turn over a lineup.

A skilled, undersized 2B/3B (and sometimes left fielder), Ramirez is a compact switch-hitter with above-average feel for contact and way, way below-average power. He’s a smaller, relatively unexplosive guy, but Ramirez has good feel for contact from both sides of the plate (especially the right) and is a good defensive player at multiple positions. He slashed .284/.348/.381 at High-A in 2024, a line that is commensurate with Ramirez’s talent. A lack of power caps his ceiling to a utility role that doesn’t include shortstop.

Born in the Bahamas (he competed for Great Britain in the 2023 WBC), Murray went to high school and college in Florida and until 2024 had put together an impressive, well-rounded offensive résumé in pro ball. He’s a career .250/.366/.411 hitter (plate discipline has been his lone plus attribute), but he had a tough first half at Iowa and, after an IL stint encompassing most of August, Murray was demoted to Tennessee for the stretch run and hit .155 there. He was left off the Cubs’ 40-man roster and went unselected in the Rule 5 Draft. Murray is a patient switch-hitter with doubles pop. He has below-average range but plus actions and hands, which might make him a plus first base defender with more reps. He lacks the loud offensive tools of a premium corner role player but, despite his pretty terrible 2024, he still projects as an on-roster player who’d accumulate 1 WAR if you gave him lots of at-bats.

Little Bateman posted a .319/.406/.373 career line at Minnesota and has continued to post great OBPs so far in pro ball. The diminutive outfielder has a patient approach that prioritizes opposite field contact. He just barely runs well enough to play center field, and plays it with the sort of infectious, wreckless abandon that fires up his teammates. Bateman is smaller than a typical big leaguer; Guardians outfielder Will Brennan (who got stronger in pro ball, but still isn’t especially powerful or big) is a fair comp for what to hope Bateman can grow into. Especially if opposing pitchers attack him fearlessly due to his lack of power, his OBP skills will probably dip a bit as he climbs. Bateman has enough in the way of skills to have some prospect value, but he’s probably a low-impact bench outfielder if he makes it.

Martin has the look of a good lefty reliever thanks to his fantastic breaking stuff, but he badly needs to rein in his control if he’s going to be a consistent part of a big league bullpen. He has two really nasty breakers in the low-80s with tight movement and bat-missing depth. His heater has enough carry to keep it above barrels despite pedestrian velocity. The ingredients for a rock solid mid-game southpaw option are here, it’s just that Martin has had several consecutive years of walk rates in the teens or worse. He failed to improve enough in 2024, his 40-man platform year, to be added. Martin is a near-term change of scenery candidate with good enough stuff to hang on the bottom of the list even though he’s approaching 27.

Dean had a roller coaster career at Maryland, as he dealt with lingering forearm issues and got knocked around as an upperclassman. He was the Cubs’ 19th round pick in 2023 and pitched at both of the team’s A-ball affiliates in 2024 as a 23-year-old. He covered just over 90 innings and struck out 23% of the batters he faced. His medium frame is still thin with room for additional weight, but it’s not an overly athletic operation, so no substantial velocity gains should be expected regardless of the role Dean is working in. Dean is now working with two breaking balls, a vertical mid-70s curveball with significant depth that will flash average bite and a slider with sweeper-style break. The curveball looks to have a better chance of being an average offering for him in the future, while the slider looks bound to be fringy. The headliner in Dean’s mix is a low-80s changeup that he throws with serious conviction, and that features late depth and sink that plays well off of the running action of his fastball. This changeup will get outs at the big league level and should spearhead a bulk relief role.

Valdez was one of the better infield athletes in the 2023 international class, an explosive individual with rare power for a teenage hitter his size, let alone one who is athletically capable of playing the middle infield. He signed for $2.8 million and has had a chaotic two years in rookie ball, slashing .247/.323/.488 across those two seasons amid pretty serious strikeout issues and two team-instituted suspensions for taking unannounced in-season trips back to the Dominican Republic.

Valdez has absurd bat speed in a vacuum, not just for a player his age and size. His ball-in-play data (55% hard-hit rate, 111 mph max exit velocity, 106 mph EV90) is nutty for a teenage shortstop prospect. This kind of ability is freaky enough to keep Valdez on the main section of the list even though he otherwise has a lot of growing to do both on and off the field. He has a wreckless approach at the dish and chases a ton, which is largely why his strikeout rates are already in a red flag zone even though he’s in rookie ball. It’s going to be fascinating to watch this guy’s career unfold because Valdez has so much talent that he’ll likely keep being given opportunities even if everything about him continues to be choppy.