Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire: Cam Smith, Caleb Durbin, and Ryan Gusto
A couple of overlooked prospects are proving their worth in fantasy leagues.
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As the early season dust has settled and more of the obvious breakout players and impact rookies are unavailable, we need to look a bit deeper to find gems on the waiver wire.
Fear not, because there are still a handful of players that are widely available and have the chance to be difference-makers in both the short and long term.
Matthew PouliotHere are three players that are under 40% rostered on Yahoo leagues that you should strongly consider adding.
If you want a larger list, Eric Samulski wrote his extended waiver wire piece on Sunday.
Cam Smith, OF/3B Astros
22% Rostered on Yahoo
Only drafted last summer, Smith surprisingly made the Astros out of camp despite having just 32 total minor league games under his belt. Only five of those games came at Double-A and he’s never taken an at-bat at Triple-A.
Perhaps there was some organizational pressure after he was the centerpiece of their return for Kyle Tucker, but he seemed to prove himself after slashing .342/.419/.711 this spring with four home runs.
The news of his place on their roster sent his draft price sky-high. While he was more of a lottery ticket type of pick outside of the top-300 for most of March, his ADP shot up to right around pick 200 in the few days between his promotion on March 25th and opening day. That was ahead of other seemingly more stable position players like Nolan Arenado, Gleyber Torres, and Jung Hoo Lee.
Then, Smith cratered during his first week in the big leagues. He went 2-for-21 with a 43% strikeout rate all while trying to learn how to play right field on the fly. Rumors were flying around about a possible demotion and he was dropped in many 10 and 12 team leagues.
Since that disastrous first week, he has a .794 OPS across 59 plate appearances with three home runs, eight runs scored, 10 RBI, and a stolen base all while still hitting in the bottom third of Houston’s lineup.
His uptick in production has also come with some genuine skill gains. He’s not swinging and missing as often while making more contact in the strike zone and not chasing many pitches out of it.
Mind you his plate discipline and swing decisions still are not good, but they have been good enough to pull him out of the doldrums and access his very loud tools.
Smith has 95th percentile bat speed, 97th percentile sprint speed, and has performed so well in right field that the Astros are toying around with the idea of trying him out in centerfield.
This is still the same player that was worthy of a borderline top-200 pick whose perception has been hurt by what was a horrible first week of his career despite adjusting to big league pitching without practically ever playing in the upper minors.
A 20 HR, 10 SB season with a fine batting average still seems like it’s in the cards with upside for more. That’s highly valuable at a position as thin as third base with multi-positional eligibility to boot.
Ryan Gusto, SP Astros
21% Rostered on Yahoo
A fellow Astros’ rookie along with Smith, Gusto has already shown he has what it takes to be a highly successful starting pitcher at the major league level.
Unlike Smith, Gusto spent a long time in the minor leagues. Drafted in 2019 out of Florida South Western State Junior College, he threw a total of 363 innings with a pedestrian 4.31 ERA across all levels splitting time as a starter and reliever. He also missed the entire 2021 season due to injury.
He made Houston’s opening day roster as a reliever and was mostly working in a multi-inning role. Then, he was thrust into the rotation after Spencer Arrighetti hit the injured list with a broken thumb.
In three starts since, Gusto has a 3.68 ERA over 14 1/3 innings with 14 strikeouts and just two walks. He’s coming off his best start of the season against the Blue Jays where he fell just one out short of a quality start and struck out six batters and allowed one earned run.
Those surface stats are just fine and his spot in the rotation still feels tenuous with Lance McCullers Jr. due back soon from his two-year hiatus and other Astros’ starters on the mend, but he has major league capable stuff.
Mainly, his fastball is a true out-pitch. It’s earned a 31% whiff rate so far despite sitting 94 mph while living at the top of the strike zone. That’s because the pitch has a plus-plus shape with 19 inches of induced vertical break.
That pitch has proved near dominant and provides a tremendous foundation for the rest of his repertoire. He’s been successful while throwing it nearly 60% of the time against left-handed batters with his changeup, curveball, and cutter mixing in at least 10% of the time each.
Against right-handed batters, he reduces his fastball usage some in favor of a quality sinker and sweeper. All in all, his repertoire is deep enough after what can be a dominant fastball and he’s capable of getting anybody out.
This has all coalesced for a 25.6% strikeout rate, 4.4% walk rate and there’s nothing in his profile that says he can’t keep up a similar level of effectiveness. Also, he threw 148 innings at Triple-A last season, so he’s ready to handle a full starters’ workload.
He has test against the Tigers tonight (on Tuesday) and another great start could further cement his place in this rotation. The possibility of losing his role is the only reason he shouldn’t be rostered in most 12-team leagues. One more good start would make that less likely.
Caleb Durbin, 3B/2B/SS Brewers
8% Rostered on Yahoo
Another third baseman who’s been overlooked, Durbin’s call-up last week was a bit overshadowed by the promotions of other, more high-end prospects like Nick Kurtz, Agustín Ramírez, Chandler Simpson, and Luke Keaschall. Yet, he’s performed well enough during his first week in the big leagues to warrant more attention.
First off, he’s playing every day. Oliver Dunn was the Brewers’ regular third baseman through the first few weeks of the season and was demoted to make room for Durbin.
Milwaukee has played 11 games since then and Durbin started 10 of them at third. This is his job if he can perform.
Past that, his calling cards as a minor leaguer were always bat-to-ball ability and speed. Through 10 games, he has a 91.4% contact rate. That’s good for sixth-highest in the majors and is in line with other players known for their contact skillslike Nico Hoerner, Steven Kwan, and Jacob Wilson.
Like those players, he has near the bottom of the league bat speed, but often squares the ball up. He also chases far fewer pitches outside the strike zone than Wilson specifically, who is much more widely rostered despite only being eligible at shortstop and having a history as much less willing base stealer.
Also, with just a small sample of 30 batted ball events, Durbin is pulling a higher rate of his fly balls than the other mentioned high-contact types. That’s encouraging and could mean he has a bit more power potential than other players with this archetype. Just a bit though, the absolute ceiling still looks like 10 homers.
Bottom line, Durbin has all the tools of someone that could run a high batting average when he’s going right and enough power not to kill you in other categories.
On top of that, his speed is very real. He’s in the 89th percentile of sprint speed according to Baseball Savant and has attempted two stolen bases through 10 games played. He was only successful on one of those tries though.
Two attempts in 10 games would put him on pace for around 32 over a full season. That would’ve been the 20th most attempts among all qualified hitters last season, in the same range as Francisco Lindor and Anthony Volpe in terms of stolen base potential.
His roster-rate is too low for someone that could be a big boost in multiple categories that’s eligible at nearly every infield position. Especially given the weakness of both second and third base right now.
