Four thoughts on Toronto’s 3-0 series lead over Ottawa
With the Leafs having a stranglehold on their first round series against the Senators, Justin Bourne shares four takeaways from Toronto’s start to the playoffs.
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The Toronto Maple Leafs have won two games in overtime, the shot attempt and possession time numbers are heavily in Ottawa’s favour, and yet at no point in any of these games has it felt like the Leafs weren’t in control.
I’ll take a look at a few reasons why below, then layer on a few additional thoughts about their remaining path through what’s been a well-played Round 1.
1. The Leafs have a full lineup they can use
Every NHL team has a full lineup every game, of course, but not necessarily one they can use. Sports like basketball may be more “strong link” games, where one (or a few) stars can pull a mediocre lineup to great success. We know hockey is a weak link sport, where the Red Rover-like chain of defence is only as strong as your weakest link, and this season, more than any of their previous playoff runs, the Leafs believe every man can hold the line.
In the 2023-24 playoffs, the Leafs used 21 skaters (19 so far this series), and didn’t feel like they could use everyone. Ryan Reaves dressed five times and played 7:52 per game. Noah Gregor dressed twice and played 8:05. Nick Robertson dressed six times and played 9:52.
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Not a single Leafs forward has averaged under 10 minutes this series, with all but Robertson over 11.
Of the seven defencemen they used in the playoffs last year, Ilya Lyubushkin averaged 16:30, Simon Benoit 17:04, TJ Brodie 17:10, and Timothy Liljegren played 17:52.
Not a single Leafs defenceman has averaged under 18 minutes in this series.
What’s probably just as important is that last year Morgan Rielly led the Leafs in TOI at 24:50 per game, while this year it’s Jake McCabe at just 21:51, almost three minutes fewer. A little over three minutes separates their least- and most-used defence each game.
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What that also means is everyone is fresher, more engaged, and more a part of what’s happening out there. They’re getting the best out of all six defencemen and all four lines.
The Leafs used each forward line multiple times in the final five minutes of a tied Game 3, and we’ve seen their depth players reward Craig Berube for keeping them active.
2. Intangibles don’t win playoff games, but intangibles layered on talent sure can
If I ever end up being an NHL GM, there will be no secrets about my roster building beliefs: teams win championships when they can get all-star talents to play a defence-first, team-first game. You have to put yourself aside and commit to the collective plan.
I played on a BCHL hockey team that was loaded with talent, going to the league final in consecutive years, winning it once. You’ve never seen so many D1-bound, offence-loving players block shots, dump pucks in, and commit to the greater good. Every time it got tight and we needed to press, we had a switch to flip.
That, and hearing about my Dad’s old Islanders teams, has led to a strong belief in the right way to win.
The problem here is that often when we see gritty, intangible-heavy teams have some success, fans chalk it up to those intangibles. It leads to GMs the world over seeking out players with those intangibles, but bad news: it doesn’t work if that’s what you’re paying for instead of “ability”.
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The point here is that the Leafs aren’t winning because they’re blocking shots, they’re winning because they’re skilled as hell and blocking shots.
They can have success getting in those lanes, winning faceoffs, flipping out pucks as a breakout, and finishing checks, solely because they possess the elite type of game-breaking talent that showed up on the Mitch Marner-to-Auston Matthews 2-1 goal. The Leafs can afford to play a low event game with just about anyone, because when it gets down to “next goal wins” time, they have several guys (not just the Core Four) who can take a game where nothing is happening and break it open.
Toronto was 10-2 in the regular season in overtime, and now 2-0 in playoffs.
Now, this core is the same from previous years, and I’ve long wondered if you can “tape” grit and intangibles around a core that has neither been gritty nor laden with what we’d consider positive intangibles. But there are two things that should give you reason to believe it can be different this time: one is the D-core mentioned in my first point, which will keep the Leafs around a lot more close games and allow this unique back-pocket ace of skill to be relevant. And two is that having a new coach and seeing the success the team is having by playing a certain way should reinforce buy-in, and encourage them to lean more into those “intangible” things like raising their level under pressure, engaging physically and more.
3. Good defence isn’t always tough and mean
Before anyone gets carried away thinking that the Leafs’ improved commitment comes on the back of hitting, and boxing out, and all those other things we associate with defending, here’s the one I’ve noticed most: pass deflections. Puck disruptions, good stick-on-puck, poke checks, and everything else that makes playing offence maddeningly frustrating. They get their sticks on just about everything.
None of Toronto’s defencemen are under 6-foot-1 and they’ve got 6-foot-2, 6-foot-3, 6-foot-4, and 6-foot-5 all represented in there. They’re long. Several times it looks like an Ottawa player is going to blow by a defender when a last second poke-check snuffs out the rush. Or it’ll look like an Ottawa forward can carry it to the middle, then someone gets a stick in to force just a small bobble, and the threat peters out. Plays as simple as low-to-high passes get tipped, and the offence starts fumbling with the puck.
According to Stathletes, the Leafs are tied for first in the playoffs at “puck deflections” with 123 through three games, and are in outright first in D-zone puck deflections with 72 through just three games.
Maybe it’s not Erik Gudbranson and Logan Stanley “big,” but it’s sure been effective.
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It’s here that I’ll note the thing everyone else has been noting: Toronto has also blocked a billion shots. The NHL has them at 67 through three games, which trails only the Wild.
It’s tough to create offence against deflected pucks and defenders stuffing the shooting lanes.
4. Can you develop killer instinct?
From Game 7 in 2018 against Boston, to Game 5 in 2023 versus Tampa Bay, the Matthews/Marner era Leafs went 0-10 in games where they could have advanced to the next round with a win.
I don’t even know how to process that really. It’s borderline impossible for that to happen given how often they had to win to even get into those spots.
But, we know they won Game 6 in 2023, finally breaking through, before losing another one to Boston in Game 7 last year.
Given this history, even with all the positives I’ve noted above, you’ll have to excuse me for not assuming Toronto will go ahead and quickly handle their business against the Sens.
But like winning the Atlantic, the rewards of wrapping up this series aren’t simply a job well done. There would be tangible on-ice rewards, as a second round would be against a team that’s won the Stanley Cup in the past few years, and being healthy and as fresh as possible at a time of year when we hear a lot of “everyone is banged up” could go a long way. Getting through a round with their roster intact would give the Leafs a fighting chance against a team (Florida?) that may not be so fortunate.
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So, will they make it hard on themselves, or make it hard on Ottawa in Game 4, then earn some rest?
In all, this version of the Leafs has done something for their fans the previous iterations were unable to do: it’s made people believe. I’ve talked to numerous fans who say they’re barely worried when the game is close, even tied, and that’s not something they’ve been able to say in years past.
Toronto’s theme this season has been getting the job done, from individual accolades to team-wide goals. On Saturday night, they’ll have the chance to advance to Round 2, and start aiming their sights at bigger prizes.
