Future looks bright for Senators, Canadiens
Who would have thought that a game between the Ottawa Senators and Montreal Canadiens this late in the season would be a battle between two teams in playoff spots? All signs point to many more big games between the rivals in the next few years.
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OTTAWA — One season can launch teams’ trajectories upward.
Who would have thought that a game between the Ottawa Senators and Montreal Canadiens this late in the season would be a battle between two teams in playoff spots?
The teams hope there will be many more big games between the teams in the next few years. This time, Ottawa emerged with a 5-2 win in a tight, physical and feisty affair.
“I lost (to) them four times in Buffalo this year and once with Ottawa,” said Senators forward Dylan Cozens. “So I really didn’t want to lose again.
“That’s pretty much felt like a playoff game out there.”
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It could be a playoff matchup in the next few years.
In 2024-25, both Montreal and Ottawa transformed from pretenders to playoff contenders. Despite the loss, Montreal has a 98 per-cent chance of securing a playoff berth, according to Moneypuck.com, after sitting 28th in the NHL on Dec. 19, 2024.
Heading into 2024-25, both teams had less than 50 per-cent odds, according to bookmakers, to make the playoffs. Even without Senators captain Brady Tkachuk on Friday, the young star talent was on display on both sides with Montreal’s Nick Suzuki, Lane Hutson opposite Tim Stutzle and Jake Sanderson.
Both are among the youngest five teams in the league this season.
Each team has a point-per-game dynamic No. 1 centre (Stutzle, Suzuki), a 30-goal winger, albeit with two different styles (Tkachuk, Cole Caufield) and a true No. 1 defenceman (Sanderson, Hutson).
Both Sanderson and Hutson are top-10 in scoring among defencemen before reaching age 22.
The teams’ core pieces are all 25 or younger and almost all are signed to team-friendly, long-term contracts.
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Even ancillary pieces such as Juraj Slafkovsky and Cozens are signed to their respective squads for five-plus years. Cozens scored against Montreal, while Slafkosvky set up Suzuki’s second-period goal when they caught a tired Ottawa group off an icing.
If you were asked if these teams will be better or worse in the next two to three years, the answer from most people would be clear: Better, probably much better.
What Montreal needs is what Ottawa has — an elite shutdown third line in Shane Pinto, Ridly Greig and Michael Amadio. The trio opened the scoring 28 seconds in and was able to limit Suzuki-Caufield-Slafkovsky to only one goal, which came when that Ottawa line wasn’t on the ice. Meanwhile, the Pinto line scored twice and outshot Montreal 13-6 while playing mainly against Montreal’s top line.
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When dissecting each group’s futures, Montreal has a plethora of picks and prospects coming down the pipeline, unlike Ottawa, which has traded some prospects and has a forfeited first-round pick. Top prospect Ivan Demidov will join Montreal shortly, and 2023 fifth-overall pick David Reinbacher is waiting in the wings. Ottawa doesn’t have that level of superstar prospect, although defenceman Carter Yakemchuk still is on track to be an effective NHL player. He is playing in the second round of the WHL playoffs with the Calgary Hitmen.
Nonetheless, what Ottawa lacks in prospects, it makes up in the size of its stars who are all above six foot two: Tkachuk, Sanderson and Stutzle have playing styles more transferable to the physicality and grind of the playoffs compared to their smaller counterparts in Suzuki, Caufield and Hutson. To be fair, Suzuki and Caufield excelled in Montreal’s 2021 run to the Stanley Cup Final, combining for 35 points in 52 games as NHL newbies. The trio of Suzuki, Caufield and Slafkovsky has scored 37 per cent of Montreal’s goals this season. Ottawa won Friday because the Senators limited the Suzuki line. A jump from 20th in scoring is necessary in the future for the Senators.
Meanwhile, Ottawa has the edge in net with former Vezina Trophy winner Linus Ullmark against Montreal’s Samuel Montembeault. Ullmark was stellar on Friday with 20 saves, and since Dec. 1, 2024, has a .921 save percentage. However, both Montembeault and Ullmark are top 15 in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, according to Moneypuck.com. Can’t win without elite goaltending and both teams have it.
All the pieces are in place for these teams to become forces in the Eastern Conference for years.
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But what about their competition? Looking around the Atlantic Division, Tampa Bay and Florida have been to the promised land, but their cores are mostly comprised of players in their 30s. Neither team has much in the way of prospects or picks in the future to replenish their talent cabinets and both are cap challenge. Low taxes can only do so much for so long.
Meanwhile, Toronto has to figure out Mitch Marner’s future. If he stays, the Maple Leafs will face cap challenges. If he leaves, there’s a huge hole in the lineup. Meanwhile, a new member to the bottom of the standings — yes, the Boston Bruins — appears in trouble, along with the Buffalo Sabres and Detroit Red Wings, who do not have a clear pathway to playoff relevance in the next five years. The Atlantic is wide open.
Montreal and Ottawa still have work ahead, of course.
But both general managers, Ottawa’s Steve Staios and Montreal’s Kent Hughes, have high approval ratings for their moves. Hughes has routinely acquired draft capital by leveraging his cap space, as Montreal has seven picks in the first two rounds of the next two drafts. Meanwhile, Staios somehow finagled to acquire Ullmark and offload Joonas Korpisalo’s awful contract.
Adams Apples
Ottawa’s third line continues to shine. On their first shift, Greig, Amadio and Pinto produced a goal.
“Shut down the best line every single night,” said defenceman Thomas Chabot.
To subdue the Suzuki line is no small feat. It will be Ottawa’s ace in the hole to have the ability to match up effectively against any top line in the playoffs.
Coach Travis Green gave a telling explanation of how the line has evolved over the season.
“I think at the beginning of the year we might have been force-feeding Ridly a little bit, putting him up the lineup,” he said.
“Maybe to our fault, (we added a) little extra pressure (on Greig). I think his game has gotten better every month.”
Since Jan. 26, Greig has 20 points in 30 games.
Meanwhile, Pinto’s two goals pushed him to his second 20-goal season. Ottawa is 14-0-1 when Pinto scores this season.
It’s hard to lose games when your third line produces and defends at a high level. Ottawa has 44 goals combined from Pinto-Greig-Amadio.
