Ha-Seong Kim Gets a Raise With the Rays

Well, I did not see that one coming. After four years with the Padres, shortstop Ha-Seong Kim is headed to the Rays.

On Wednesday afternoon, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported that Kim and Tampa Bay have agreed to a two-year, $29 million deal with an opt out after the first year (because opting out after the second year would just be silly). Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times followed with more details: Kim will make $13 million in 2025 (with an additional $2 million in incentives), then $16 million in 2026 if he doesn’t opt out. And because it’s paramount that we spread the scoops around as generously as possible, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal quickly chimed in with his own news that Kim is expected to return in May from the shoulder injury that cut his 2024 season short. Let’s start with my own personal ignominy, and then we can dive into the details.

So last week I wrote something like 2,000 words about where Kim might end up. I didn’t even give Tampa Bay a full sentence. In one breath, in passing, I dismissed the Rays, Pirates, and White Sox as unlikely to spend that kind of money. That’s my bad, but also it begs a question. Why is Kim set to spend at least one season at exotic George Steinbrenner Field? For starters, the money isn’t quite what we expected. This is a pillow contract, and a discounted one at that. If Kim plays well, he’ll opt out again and go hunting for the dollars he deserves. If things go wrong, 2026 will be his platform year. For those twin security blankets, he accepted an average annual value that’s significantly below not just our $18.5 million crowdsourced estimate, but the $20 million that Ben Clemens predicted for him. (To be fair, Ben did nail the possibility of a two-year contract with an opt-out.)

Even with the one-shoulder discount, Kim’s $29 million guarantee gives him the fifth-largest free-agent contract in Rays history and the second-largest by AAV. The largest was Zach Eflin’s three-year, $40 million deal. As you’re likely aware, Eflin now pitches for the Orioles. As it turns out, the Rays either traded or released three of the four players ahead of Kim on the list, so if you’re a Rays fan and you want to wear a Kim shirsey, you should order it now, before it’s too late. All of this is to say that Kim’s deal is awfully small for a player with 10.5 WAR over the past three seasons, but it’s awfully big for the Rays. I don’t quite know how to bridge that gap.

Kim suffered what was described as a “small tear” in his labrum in August and underwent surgery in October after rest and rehab didn’t turn the trick. He opted out rather than make $8 million in San Diego in 2025. While he was reportedly aiming to return in April or May, Padres GM A.J. Preller poured cold water on that notion in October, offering reporters a timeframe of “May, June, July.” Now, not only is Kim expected back in May, but he’ll be the highest-paid player on his new team. Based on the contract, we have to assume that the rest of the league wasn’t exactly feeling bullish about Kim’s shoulder. Plenty of teams that needed an infielder had this kind of money, and it’s unlikely that free agents are clamoring to sign on for Tampa Bay’s bizarre, never-ending-road-trip season. On the other hand, the Rays aren’t known for gambling with (relatively) big-money contracts. They don’t take $13 million flyers. They must really believe that Kim will be back and productive, right?

The more I think about this deal, the more puzzled that question makes me. I’ve asked a few smart people, and I’m starting to lean toward a third possibility: The Rays are getting desperate. Like me, they’ve been staring at the depth chart on their ZiPS projections and slowly getting more and more worried.

Shortstop is one of the strongest positions on the diamond, but that’s because of a strong projection for Carson Williams. Williams is just 21, and although he obliterated Double-A pitching last season, he also struck out nearly 30% of the time. At this point, the projection systems only love him for his glove, and back in July, Eric Longenhagen and Travis Ice were clear about his need for further seasoning. Kim is taking the place of Taylor Walls, who now has nearly 400 major league games under his belt and a career wRC+ of 71. In other words, Kim is filling an enormous hole in the roster, and he’s giving Williams time to develop.

Even with Kim, that depth chart has paucity of twos and threes, and not a single four. If Kim comes back looking like the three- to four-win player we’ve seen for the last three seasons, then he’s a steal. But if he doesn’t look like his old self (or even if he does, but his recovery takes longer than expected), the Rays are in pretty big trouble. They just don’t have many dependable players. They really need Junior Caminero to hit. They really need a breakout season from a starting pitcher. They really need the 2023 versions of Yandy Díaz, Christopher Morel, and Danny Jansen. They need Williams to figure things out soon rather than later. It’s rare that so many things break in a team’s way all at once.

Whatever the reasoning behind the move, it’s very out of character for Tampa Bay. It’s also very exciting. Kim is one of the game’s most watchable players, and even a diminished version of him constitutes a significant upgrade for the Rays. All the same, an awful lot depends upon his right shoulder.

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