How Dubas, Penguins should approach another balancing-act trade deadline

The quick, painful fall back to earth couldn’t have come quicker for the captain of Canada’s triumphant 4 Nations squad. 

Fresh off a championship-clinching thriller last week, Sidney Crosby returned to Pittsburgh this past weekend, swapped his red sweater for Penguins black-and-gold, and immediately felt the full weight of his club’s woeful situation: three losses against three division rivals — one, the runaway favourite to win the Metro, the other two, a pair of playoff hopefuls sitting between Pittsburgh and a post-season berth — dropping the games by a collective score of 19-7.

It’s been a rough go for these Penguins since the season began, as a six-game losing streak in October quickly waved away any notions of 2024-25 being the year the Pens make it back to the dance. The four months since have done little to alter that trajectory. While Pittsburgh has shown brief spells of quality, the campaign’s mostly been a messy one. Only once have the Penguins strung together more than two wins in a row — meanwhile, they’ve dropped three or more consecutive games seven times, including their most recent run of tilts.

And now, another trade deadline looms, with the Penguins brass having to once again navigate the complicated balancing act of rebuilding a franchise that’s been struggling for nearly a decade and respecting that two of the greatest talents to ever suit up in Penguins colours are still there trying to lift the club back to its glory days.

Much has been made of how the situation impacts No. 87 specifically, particularly given the fact that Crosby has shown he’s more than simply along for the ride — the captain’s pair of 90-point campaigns over the past two years were among his most productive of the past decade, while the 42 goals he potted just last year were the third-most he’s ever amassed in a single season.

The key issue concerning Crosby — beyond the big-picture fact that the Penguins have come up short in building a worthwhile squad around their franchise icon for his final chapter — is that Pittsburgh’s most valuable trade asset is, once again, No. 87’s linemate.

Rewind a year, and the decision that truly made clear the Penguins’ changed course, that cemented their turn towards a genuine rebuild, was the trade that sent Jake Guentzel out of town. Not simply because he was one of the most productive scorers on a team seemingly fighting for a playoff spot, but because of his long, storied history on Crosby’s wing. It was a decision the captain surely wasn’t thrilled with, but a necessary one given where the team was headed, and the offers that were on the table.

This time around, it’s Rickard Rakell who leads the Penguins’ asset list. The 31-year-old has enjoyed a resurgent year in Pittsburgh to this point, his 25 goals and 49 points through 59 games — a near 35-goal, 70-point pace — calling to mind the promising form he showed early in his career. That, alongside a $5-million cap hit that will become far more manageable with a rising salary cap, should bring some suitors to the table as the deadline nears.

The question that’s been raised often on the Rakell front recently, though, is what message trading the winger would send to Pittsburgh’s captain — whether plucking one of the roster’s few consistent scorers off No. 87’s line for the second straight year, making the team worse in the here and now, would sit well with Crosby as he mulls his future. 

It’s a fair one. But in truth, the club has little choice, given how far down this path they already are.

As it stands right now, the Penguins’ chances of making the playoffs in 2025 are slim to none — six teams sit between them and a wild-card spot, all six have games in hand, and the Pens aren’t exactly gaining momentum heading into the season’s home stretch. Even if, by chance, Pittsburgh did claw their way to a wild-card spot, their chances of making some real playoff noise seem even slimmer. As currently constructed, there are simply too many holes to patch up, in too little time. In terms of goal differential, for example — often a decent indicator of where a club truly sits among the contenders and pretenders — these Penguins find themselves third-last in the league, their -49 above only lottery-bound Chicago and San Jose.

So, major surgery is still needed to get this team back to level ground, with many of Dubas’s early decisions doing little to lift the club out of the hole dug for them by previous front-office regimes. The swing for Erik Karlsson upon the president’s arrival in Pittsburgh, while bold and with a chance of sparking something interesting, hasn’t moved the needle. The six-year bet on Ryan Graves has gone worse. And the decision to re-sign Tristan Jarry to a five-year, $26.9-million deal, despite his uneven ability in the big moments of the big games, seems the most ill-fated of the bunch, with the netminder currently mired in the AHL trying to rediscover his form.

The only path forward is a genuine youth movement. By this point, it should be clear that Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang are unlikely to finish their careers anywhere other than Pittsburgh. Bryan Rust is a fair bet to remain among that group, too. And while a Karlsson deal could benefit the club — and his performance at the 4 Nations Face-Off may have spurred some renewed interest — the 34-year-old’s $10-million cap hit will make a deal difficult.

After a string of early misses, Dubas has done well in changing course and turning the franchise towards that future-focused goal, dealing Guentzel away to Carolina for a package that included three prospects and a pair of draft picks, sending out veterans Lars Eller, Reilly Smith and Chad Ruhwedel for more draft assets, taking flyers on young talents like Rutger McGroarty and Philip Tomasino.

The Pens GM pulled off another shrewd move last month, dealing away Marcus Pettersson and Drew O’Connor to Vancouver in exchange for a package that included a New York Rangers first-round pick. That deal once again made clear just how much the Pens are prioritizing the future over the present, with Pettersson in particular having emerged as one of the club’s most important blue-liners over the past couple of seasons. 

Which is why there’s little to be gained from holding on to Rakell through the rest of this season — to remain with Crosby and accomplish little by the year’s end — when the alternative is stomaching some pain now for a chance at building a more viable team around No. 87 a year or two down the line. If underwhelming offers come in, and there seems to be an opportunity to reel in a bigger package in the summer, that’s one thing. But if worthwhile offers come Dubas’s way for the talented Swede over the next week — and they should, given the dynamic winger has seemingly found his game, and rediscovered his 30-goal touch — the path ahead should be clear.

It will make these Penguins worse in the interim. It’ll put Crosby and the rest of the veteran core in a tough spot as they try to perform on a roster slowly losing pieces that could help them right now. But the only worthwhile consideration in the lead-up to March 7 should be how soon these Penguins can put together some semblance of a genuine, meaningful run before the captain’s time in Penguins colours comes to an end.

That the group has seemed close to earning a wild-card ticket at times shouldn’t factor into the decision. If the goal is to remain competitive for Crosby’s sake, rather than leaning even more into a full-on rebuild, then the bar shouldn’t be simply getting back to the dance — it should be positioning the club to actually compete once it gets there.

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