How will the Oilers cope without irreplaceable Connor McDavid?
Without Connor McDavid in the lineup, an Edmonton Oilers offence that’s already struggling will be challenged even more. Adam Vingan looks at how the team has historically fared without its captain and who needs to step up most.
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Connor McDavid’s status is still unknown after he suffered a lower-body injury on his first shift Monday. It was serious enough that the Edmonton Oilers sent McDavid home early from their road trip, which continues Thursday against the Nashville Predators.
It goes without saying, though, that the Oilers will feel McDavid’s loss if he is out for any length of time. Although McDavid was off to a slow start by his standards (10 points in 10 games) prior to his injury, he was doing all he could to pull the Oilers out of their early-season funk.
McDavid is averaging 16.8 offence-generating plays per game in all situations — second only to reigning Hart Trophy winner Nathan MacKinnon. (Those include passes and carries to the slot, as well as others plays that lead to scoring chances.)
McDavid has avoided serious injury since his rookie year, when he broke his collarbone and missed 37 games. Over the past nine seasons, McDavid has been sidelined for just 19 games. Unsurprisingly, the Oilers have not fared well without their captain and three-time MVP, going 6-8-5 when he is out of the lineup. They have scored nearly one fewer goal per game without McDavid over that span.
Even with McDavid, the Oilers have been unable to catch a break on offence this season, ranking dead last in the NHL at 2.2 goals per game. They have scored on a league-worst 3.1 per cent of their total shot attempts (2.3 per cent at 5-on-5). Edmonton should have 15.7 more goals based on its overall shot quality. The next most snakebitten team is the New York Islanders, who have scored 9.08 goals below expected.
One big issue has been the Oilers’ inability to cash in off the rush, where they are typically most dangerous. Despite generating 78 rush scoring chances this season (second most), they have scored on three of them (3.8 per cent). When including only rush chances that hit the net, they are 3-for-48 (6.25 per cent). Both marks are the worst in the league. (McDavid has scored once on 10 rush chances — six of which have been on net.)
The Oilers’ rush attack endured a similar stretch last October, striking once on 50 scoring chances (2.0 per cent) over the team’s first eight games. Then it took off the following month; Edmonton scored 64 rush goals on 571 chances (11.2 per cent) the rest of the way.
“It should be an opportunity for guys to step up,” Oilers coach Kris Knoblauch told reporters Monday following a 6-1 loss to the Columbus Blue Jackets. “It’s more ice time, more opportunity. … Obviously, our team’s going to look different.”
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Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, who has one goal and four points this season, is among the players who will need to raise their game. The veteran forward does not play much centre when the Oilers’ lineup is at full strength, but he should shift to the middle in McDavid’s absence.
The Oilers have generated 43.7 per cent of the expected goals when Nugent-Hopkins has been on the ice at even strength. That is a huge drop from last season, when he helped the team generate 59.9 per cent of the expected goals during his minutes.
Zach Hyman, who should remain on Nugent-Hopkins’ line, is goalless after putting up a career-high 54 last season. Hyman has not strayed from what has made him successful — parking himself in front of the net and hunting for rebounds. But he has come up empty on 16 inner-slot shots and 42 scoring chances — the most by a player without a goal this season. (Utah’s Nick Schmaltz is the next closest with zero goals on 29 chances.)
Knoblauch will also have to reconfigure his club’s sputtering power play, which is 4-for-29 (13.8 per cent) to start the season. Edmonton’s fear-inspiring No. 1 unit — McDavid, Nugent-Hopkins, Hyman, Leon Draisaitl and Evan Bouchard — has scored twice on 61 shot attempts over 31:30 of ice time. After McDavid exited the game Monday, Viktor Arvidsson replaced him on the top unit. The Oilers went 1-for-6 on the power play, scoring in garbage time.
The Oilers are fully aware that McDavid is irreplaceable. They have no choice but to try.
“He’s our leader and the best player in the game,” Nugent-Hopkins told reporters. “Of course you’re going to feel it.”
All stats via Sportlogiq
