If Sam Darnold stays with the Vikings, 2025 will be very different than 2024

The Vikings are still deciding whether they'll keep quarterback Sam Darnold, even if they don't plan to apply the franchise tag before 4:00 p.m. ET today. Should they stick with Darnold, or move on?

On one hand, Darnold went 14-3 last year as a starter in the regular season, and one-and-done in the playoffs. Through 17 weeks, he dramatically exceeded any reasonable expectations, making big throws in big spots and getting some big wins.

Then came Game No. 272. Vikings at Lions. Winner gets the No. 1 seed. Loser has to take the harder road in the postseason.

It was the biggest game of the regular season, and also the biggest game of Darnold's life. As it turned out, it was too big. He got a sudden case of the yips.

Then came the playoffs. That loss wasn't on him. The Vikings were out-coached. And many of the players (especially on offense) lacked the requisite intensity needed to advance in a win-or-go-home setting.

The things that went well before Week 18 were aided in large part by the circumstances. First-round rookie J.J. McCarthy suffered a preseason knee injury, and the Vikings shut him down for the entire season. Darnold became the unquestioned, wire-to-wire starter, with no reason to glance over his shoulder after a bad decision or a poorly-aimed throw.

This year, it will be different. McCarthy will be ready. If Darnold struggles at all, they'll start clamoring for J.J. And the yips that didn't show up until Week 18 could arrive a lot sooner.

Of course, this assumes McCarthy is still there. If the Vikings sign Darnold to a contract that amounts to a two-year commitment, McCarthy might try to enter the NFL's version of the transfer portal.

The ultimate question becomes whether the Vikings are content to contend — and possibly make a quick playoff exit — with a guy who has already shown that the biggest stage is too big, or whether they want to see whether they have something special in McCarthy.

Basically, is just good enough going to be good enough?

To many on the outside, it's a no-brainer. See what the kid can do and save the money for other positions of need. To folks on the inside whose job security hinges much more on making the playoffs than winning playoff games, there's a very good reason to embrace the option with a higher floor.

Even if it comes with a lower ceiling.