JAWS and the 2025 Hall of Fame Ballot: Dustin Pedroia

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2025 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule, and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

Because of his size — officially 5-foot-9 and 170 pounds, but by his own admission, a couple inches shorter — Dustin Pedroia was consistently underestimated. Though he took to baseball as a toddler and excelled all the way through high school and Arizona State University, scouts viewed him as having below-average tools because of his stature. He barely grazed prospect lists before reaching the majors, but once he settled in, he quickly excelled. He won American League Rookie of the Year honors while helping the Red Sox win the 2007 World Series, then took home the MVP award the next year, when he was just 24.

Over the course of his 14-year career, Pedroia played a pivotal role in helping the Red Sox win one more World Series, made four All-Star teams, and banked four Gold Gloves. Understandably, he became a fan favorite, not only for his stellar play but because of the way he carried himself, radiating self-confidence to the point of cockiness, and always quick with a quip. “Pedie never shuts up, man,” Manny Ramirez told ESPN Magazine’s Jeff Bradley for a 2008 piece called “170 Pounds of Mouth.” Continued Ramirez, “He’s a little crazy. But that’s why we love him. He talks big and makes us all laugh.”

“I love to read and hear that people are doubting his ability,” general manager Theo Epstein told Bradley, “because what usually follows is that he goes out and, as he says, hits some lasers.”

Just as impressive as Pedroia’s performance was his resiliency and toughness. Taking groundballs on his knees just days after fracturing a foot, as he did in 2010, may not have been the best way to heal, but it demonstrated his determination to play, setting the stage for his battles with other injuries. He tore a ligament in his left thumb on Opening Day in 2013, yet played though it, making another All-Star team and winning another World Series before submitting to surgery. The next year, he injured his left wrist in the season’s first week, and played into September, undergoing surgery only when it was clear the Red Sox were out of the race.

Pedroia appeared to be building a career worthy of Cooperstown when a hard — some say dirty — slide by Manny Machado into his surgically repaired left knee tore cartilage off the bone. He gutted out the rest of the season, then endured surgery after surgery in an effort to return, but played in just nine major league games in 2018–19 before conceding it was time to move on. His knee injury prevented him from compiling the career totals that would guarantee election to the Hall of Fame, but like 2024 first-year candidate David Wright, whose own career was similarly curtailed, Pedroia may garner enough support to remain on the ballot and remind us of what might have been.

Dustin Luis Pedroia was born on August 17, 1983 in Woodland, California, near Sacramento. His parents, Guy and Debbie Pedroia, worked double shifts at a tire shop in Woodland, eventually saving up enough money to buy it. Both had athletic backgrounds: Guy played softball for a national travel team, while Debbie played tennis at Sacramento City College; her brother, Phil Snow, became an NFL linebackers coach. Dustin’s older brother, Brett Pedroia (b. 1978) played baseball at Shasta Junior College in Redding, California.

At 18 months old, Dustin discovered a tiny wooden bat “and started swinging at everything that moved: tennis balls, ping-pong balls, balls of tinfoil,” wrote the Boston Globe’s Bob Hohler in 2008. Unfortunately, according to Hohler, that also included the family’s pet baby goose, which… well, use your imagination.

When Dustin began playing T-ball, the hypercompetitive Debbie coached the team, running up the score against other squads until Guy told her to cool it. Guy spent hours with his sons in the family’s backyard, pitching batting practice but with a condition. “If [Dustin] was going to swing the bat 200 times, he was going to take 200 ground balls,” Guy told Hohler. “I knew at his size that he wasn’t going anyplace if he wasn’t as good defensively as he was offensively.”

The Pedroia boys took hitting instruction from former major leaguer Rich Chiles; as a seven-year-old, Dustin faced 50-mph pitches from a machine. “He even let the ball hit him,” Chiles told Hohler. “Right then, I knew there was no fear in him.”

At 12, Dustin led a team that fell one game short of qualifying for the Little League World Series. At Woodland High School, despite being just 5-foot-6 and 140 pounds, he quarterbacked the freshman team until a hit from future NFL linebacker Lance Briggs broke his ankle and required surgery. Even so, he still made the varsity baseball team as a freshman and earned all-league honors three times. During the summer, he played travel ball for a team in Carson City, Nevada that also included future major league pitcher J.P. Howell. As a senior at Woodland High, he was the league’s MVP and the Metro Player of the Year.

Undrafted out of high school due to concerns about his size, Pedroia was nonetheless recruited by powerhouse college programs including Miami, Texas, and Tulane. He chose Arizona State University after meeting with coach Pat Murphy (now the Brewers’ manager), who hadn’t actually seen him play because he was coaching in the Olympics. The scouting report from recruiter Jay Sferra: “He’s a mouthy, cocky kid who’s only about 5-foot-6, but he can really play.” More from Hohler:

“He walked into my office in a cutoff white T-shirt, his skin was as white as the T-shirt, and he had the body of a sixth grader,” Murphy recalled.

In a vintage Pedroia moment, the teenager flexed his biceps and said, “Hey, coach, how do you like these guns?”

As Pedroia recalled, Murphy only offered him a 30% scholarship while other schools were offering full rides. “I called him back, I’m like, ‘Hey listen, man. What makes you think that I wanna come play for you and take a 30% scholarship when teams that beat your ass the year before are offering me 100?… I’m playing to win.’ And he goes, ‘Man, if you can play as good as you talk, you’re gonna be really good.'” Murphy upped the scholarship offer, and Pedroia committed; the next year he gave the scholarship back so that the team could add another player.

Pedroia’s career at ASU, where he played shortstop, was legendary. He started all 185 games during his three seasons there, each of which earned him First-Team All-Pac-10 honors. He was named the National Defensive Player of the Year in 2003, and was a finalist for the Golden Spikes Award in ’04, but lost to Jered Weaver.

At ASU, Pedroia became an on-base machine. “Coach told me that I could get on base anytime I wanted. He gave me a real approach to hitting that helped me a ton,” Pedroia told Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein in 2006. “He taught me how to lay off bad pitches and avoid stuff on the corners, and that a true hitting philosophy didn’t revolve completely around getting hits.”

As if his recruiting conversation hadn’t made it apparent, Pedroia’s confidence was already off the charts. “He’d come in and say, ‘Laser show today, laser show today, I’m going to hit bombs today,’ then he’d go out and do it,” recalled ASU sports information director Jeff Evans in 2015.

At ASU, Pedroia crossed paths with fellow first-year Hall of Fame candidate Ian Kinsler, who transferred from Central Arizona College as a sophomore. The plan was for Kinsler to start at shortstop and Pedroia to shift to second base, but the newcomer struggled and was benched. Pedroia returned to shortstop, while Kinsler transferred to Missouri for his junior year.

During his time at ASU, Pedroia was the starting shortstop for Team USA in both 2002 and ’03, helping them to a silver medal at the Pan Am Games in the latter year. Later, he told Goldstein that his exposure to playing with wood bats in international competition was a big reason for his immediate professional success.

The Red Sox chose Pedroia with the 65th pick of the 2004 draft. He was the eighth shortstop taken, with top overall pick Matt Bush, Stephen Drew, Trevor Plouffe, and Reid Brignac among those selected ahead of him. The Red Sox had lost their first round pick to the A’s for signing free agent Keith Foulke. As team president Sam Kennedy recalled during his introductory phone call with Epstein, Pedroia — who was unaware of the the team’s draft situation — brazenly asked, “Bro. Sixty-fifth? What took you so freaking long? I’ve gotta get to the big leagues and I’m ready to win championships for the Red Sox.”

Pedroia signed for a $575,000 bonus in late July. He was initially assigned to A-level Augusta of the South Atlantic League; manager Chad Epperson felt the young shortstop wasn’t in shape and didn’t play him for nearly a week. When Pedroia finally played, he went 4-for-4 with two walks and five runs scored in a 13-inning game. After just 12 games, he was promoted to High-A Sarasota; in all, he hit .357/.435/.535 with 19 walks and just seven strikeouts in 42 games split between the two stops.

When farm director Ben Cherington told him he would be reassigned to High-A to start the 2005 season, Pedroia expressed his displeasure, but by the end of spring training, the Red Sox decided to send him to Double-A Portland, albeit on the condition that he shift to second base to accommodate shortstop Hanley Ramirez (another first-year candidate on this ballot). Pedroia accepted the move, hit .324/.409/.508 in 66 games, and was promoted to Triple-A Pawtucket. He expected to reach the majors that year, but within a week of promotion, he was hit on the left wrist by a pitch and didn’t fully recover, slugging just .382 during his stint there.

In the spring of 2006, Baseball America ranked Pedroia 77th on its Top 100 Prospects list, but offered a mixed review. The publication praised his hand-eye coordination, strike-zone discipline and defense at second base while expressing concerns about his strength, noting that his speed was below average, and that both his arm and range “weren’t quite up to par at shortstop.” He spent most of his season at Pawtucket, hitting .305/.384/.426 with five homers, 48 walks, and 27 strikeouts; with Ramirez traded to the Marlins the previous November, Pedroia mainly played shortstop, as he did for his August 22 major league debut. Facing the Angels, he went 1-for-3 with a single off Joe Saunders. On September 9, he hit his first homer, off the Royals’ Luke Hudson. He scuffled during his call-up, batting just .191/.258/.303 in 98 PA while mainly playing second base.

Despite having retained his rookie eligibility, Pedroia was left off BA’s Top 100 list in the spring of 2007 and was dropped him from fifth to seventh on their Red Sox team list, where he drew comparisons to David Eckstein. Baseball Prospectus 2007 noted, “This PECOTA favorite tends to excite statheads more than scouts. The former cite his impressive plate discipline and gap power — a good offensive package for a middle infielder — while the latter caution against his small size, unimpressive speed, and lack of the arm strength or range to play shortstop.” With the departure of Mark Loretta, Pedroia won the second base job but started slowly, hitting just .182/.308/.236 through the end of April and losing time to Alex Cora. He turned things around in early May, finishing at .317/.380/.442 (112 OPS+) with eight homers and 3.9 WAR; he beat out former no. 1 prospect Delmon Young for Rookie of the Year.

The 2007 Red Sox won 96 games and the AL East, then bookended sweeps of the Angels and Rockies with a seven-game win over Cleveland in the ALCS. Pedroia didn’t do much in the Division Series but hit a combined .319/.385/.532 in the ALCS and World Series. He went 3-for-5 in Game 7 of the ALCS, with a seventh inning two-run homer and an eighth inning bases-loaded double, both off Rafael Betancourt, to put what had been a 3-2 game out of reach. He hit a leadoff homer off Jeff Francis in his first World Series plate appearance, and went 3-for-5 with a two-run eighth inning double to break open Game 3 as well.

Pedroia was even better in 2008. Taking advantage of Fenway Park, he led the AL with 54 doubles, 213 hits, and 118 runs scored while punching 17 homers and stealing 20 bases in 21 attempts. He hit .326/.376/.493 (123 OPS+), finishing second both in AVG and WAR (7.0), the latter behind only Nick Markakis. He was voted to start the All-Star Game, and not only won his first Gold Glove but took home AL MVP honors, beating out the Twins’ Justin Morneau. The Red Sox won 95 games and claimed the Wild Card. Pedroia went just 1-for-17 as they beat the Angels in the Division Series, then went 9-for-26 with three homers in a seven-game loss to the Rays in the ALCS; he hit two solo homers off Scott Kazmir in a losing cause in Game 2, and accounted for Boston’s only run in Game 7 with a leadoff homer off Matt Garza.

That winter, Pedroia signed a six-yer, $40.5 million extension with the Red Sox, one with escalators, incentives, and a club option for 2015. Though he slipped to .296/.371/.447 (110 OPS+) with 15 homers in 2009, he made the All-Star team again and finished with 5.6 WAR on another 95-win team. This one was swept in the Division Series by the Angels; Pedroia went just 2-for-12, but his two-run double off Kazmir (again!) in Game 3 helped the Red Sox build a lead they eventually frittered away.

Off the field, Pedroia dealt with family turmoil. Older brother Brett made headlines in 2009 when he was arrested on child molestation charges and convicted of one count of oral copulation with a minor; he served eight months in jail. Meanwhile, Guy and Debbie’s tire store received threats because Dustin made an offhand comment calling Woodland “a dump” in a Boston Magazine profile.

Pedroia was off to a strong start in 2010 when he fouled a ball off his left foot on June 25, suffering a nondisplaced fracture of the medial navicular bone. Just days later, he was spotted at Fenway Park, wearing a walking boot while taking grounders on his knees. Via ESPN’s Joe McDonald:

“I failed miserably,” manager Terry Francona said about being able to keep Pedroia under control. “He’s a maniac. He knows he can’t put any weight on that foot and he knows he’s going to slow himself down if he does, so he’ll abide by the rules, but he’ll bend them as much as he can.”

Expected to miss six weeks, Pedroia was out closer to eight, then played just two games after returning before realizing he was in too much pain to continue; the bone hadn’t healed. He underwent season-ending surgery, with a screw inserted in his foot. He bounced back in 2011, setting career highs with 159 games played, 21 homers, 26 steals, a 131 OPS+ (.307/.387/.474) and 8.0 WAR, the last of which was good for third in the league; teammate Jacoby Ellsbury and the Blue Jays’ José Bautista both finished with 8.3. Pedroia won his second Gold Glove, but the Red Sox collapsed in September, going 7-20 and missing the playoffs, after which Francona was fired and Epstein resigned in order to become the Cubs’ president of baseball operations.

With Bobby Valentine taking over as manager, the Red Sox bottomed out to 69 wins in 2012, with Pedroia’s 5.1 WAR representing one of the few bright spots. While other teammates including David Ortiz missed extended time with injuries, Pedroia played through a torn adductor muscle in his right thumb, but a second thumb injury, a hyperextension, sent him to what was then the disabled list in early July. He tore the UCL of his left thumb while diving into first base on Opening Day the next year but played through it for the entire season. In a career-high 160 games, he hit .301/.372/.415 (115 OPS+) with nine homers, 17 steals, and 6.1 WAR (sixth in the AL). Additionally, he made his fourth and final All-Star team, won his third Gold Glove, and reconfigured his existing contract into an eight-year, $110 million extension for 2014–21; it was the largest contract for a second baseman to that point, but was quickly eclipsed by Robinson Canó’s free agent deal with the Mariners that winter.

Under new manager John Farrell, the Red Sox won the AL East with a 97-65 record in 2013. Pedroia hit just .238/.286/.302 in the postseason, but had some big moments as the Red Sox beat the Rays, Tigers, and Cardinals to win another championship. He drove in three runs against the Rays’ David Price in Game 2 of the Division Series, a 7-4 win. In Game 2 of the ALCS against the Tigers, with the Red Sox trailing 5-0 in the sixth, he doubled in a run off Max Scherzer, then in the eighth hit a single off Al Alburquerque that set up Ortiz’s game-tying grand slam; Boston won, 6-5. In Game 6, with the Red Sox clinging to a 2-1 lead but the Tigers threatening with runners at the corners, he turned a pivotal double play, tagging out Victor Martinez en route to second and catching Prince Fielder in a rundown between third and home.

Though Pedroia collected just five hits and one walk in the World Series against the Cardinals, he scored five times thanks to Ortiz’s unstoppable 11-for-16 performance. On November 13, once the champagne had dried, Pedroia finally underwent surgery to repair his thumb ligament.

As the Red Sox sank to last place in 2014 (71-91) and ’15 (78-84) under Farrell, Pedroia had a harder time staying healthy. He injured his left wrist in the 2014 home opener, battled inflammation all season, and slipped to a 99 OPS+ with seven homers before being shut down in early September in order to undergo surgery to release a tendon in his left wrist and clean up scar tissue. While he was out, rookie Mookie Betts — who had debuted on June 29 and came up for good in late August — played second base. In 2015, a recurrent right hamstring strain limited Pedroia to 93 games, though his 12 homers and .441 SLG were his best power numbers in three years. His last complete season, in 2016, was an outstanding one. He hit .318/.376/.449 (117 OPS+) with 15 homers and 5.4 WAR in 154 games while helping the Sox win the AL East, though he went just 2-for-12 as they were swept by Cleveland in the Division Series. After the season, he underwent surgery on his left knee, with a section of meniscus removed and the arthritic joint surfaces smoothed.

His left knee problems were hardly at an end. On April 21, 2017, on an attempted double play in the eighth inning of a game against the Orioles in Baltimore, Machado overslid the bag and spiked Pedroia’s left calf with his right foot. Machado tried to brace Pedroia’s tumble, but the second baseman was shaken up and left the game. Farrell called it “an extremely late slide,” though Machado apologized to Pedroia, both on the field and over text.

Two days later, Red Sox pitchers Eduardo Rodriguez and Matt Barnes threw multiple brushback pitches at Machado, with the latter ejected — and subsequently suspended four games — for throwing one behind the third baseman’s head. Pedroia initially missed just three games with the injury and was vocal in his unhappiness regarding his teammates’ clumsy attempt at payback. “It’s not me,” he yelled to Machado from the dugout after Barnes threw at his head, then said afterwards, “I had nothing to do with that. That’s not how you do that… I’m sorry to him and his team. If you’re going to protect guys, you do it right away.”

As for the injury, Pedroia later said he felt a pop, which doctors explained was cartilage ripping away. Via The Athletic’s Chad Jennings in 2021:

“I remember when I got the first MRI after that play,” Pedroia said. “A doctor said, ‘Hey man, you could ruin not only your career but the rest of your life with this injury. You tore all the cartilage off on your medial compartment on your femur and your tibia. Your cleat just got stuck, and it’s a bad deal.’ And I said, ‘Well, can I play?’ And he said, ‘Yeah, you could try to.’”

Pedroia returned to the lineup and played through considerable pain until the end of July, though he did miss nine games in late May and early June with a left wrist sprain. Inflammation in his knee finally sent him to the DL in late July; he missed all but one game of the team’s next 30, but returned and played regularly through September, with a day off here and there. He finished at .293/.369/.392 (101 OPS+) with 2.6 WAR in 105 games.

In October, Pedroia underwent microfracture surgery on his left tibia as well as an experimental cartilage restoration procedure called an osteochondral allograft transfer, in which cartilage from a cadaver was grafted into the damaged area. Teammate Steven Wright, a pitcher, was the only other player who had undergone the surgery, less than six months prior. Expected to miss the first two months of the 2018 season, Pedroia tried to play in mid-May, but after five rehab games at Pawtucket and three with the Red Sox, further inflammation shut him down. In July, he underwent surgery to remove scar tissue within the left knee. On September 7, the team announced that he wouldn’t play again that season, making Pedroia a bystander as the Red Sox ran to their fourth championship of this millennium.

In February 2019, the now-35-year-old Pedroia said that if he knew what he was in for, he would not have undergone the cartilage procedure: “I don’t regret doing it, but looking back and knowing what I know now, I wouldn’t have done it.” He tried another comeback. Following a three-game rehab stint, he made his season debut in the home opener on April 9, going 1-for-4 with a single off the Blue Jays’ Ken Giles, then following with another 1-for-4 with a single off Aaron Sanchez two days later. He played just four more games, however, leaving an April 17 game against the Yankees after two innings due to discomfort in the left knee. He started and stopped a pair of rehab stints within the next few weeks, then on May 27 announced that he would take an indefinite break from rehabbing.

In August, Pedroia underwent a joint preservation procedure to strengthen bones and fill in hairline fractures beneath the cartilage, as well as remove bone spurs and scar tissue. “It’s a day-to-day-life procedure; it’s not a going-back-to-playing-sports procedure,” explained Dr. Christopher Geary, an orthopedic surgeon. Pedroia felt well enough to attempt another comeback in 2020 but suffered “a significant setback” in January, and spent the entire pandemic-shortened season on the injured list. In December 2020, he underwent a partial knee replacement, and the following February, he announced his retirement. Asked about his left knee injury, he refused to blame Machado, instead offering one last dose of bravado:

“That play could’ve happened my rookie year. When you play second base… like me, you hang on until the last possible second to get the ball because, you watched it: if there’s a slim chance at a double play, there’s one guy on planet earth who could turn it. And you’re talking to him.”

…

Because he played just 361 games after his age-30 season, Pedroia — like Wright, his Mets counterpart — finished with fewer games played (1,512) and plate appearances (6,777) than any post-1960 expansion era position player in the Hall of Fame; he has 164 fewer games and 102 fewer plate appearances than 2022 Golden Days Era Committee honoree Tony Oliva, the low man in both of those categories. He’s also shy of 2,000 hits; his 1,805 are 28 more than Wright but still fewer than Oliva (1,917) or this ballot’s Chase Utley (1,885), the focal point of my case for short-career, high-peak players.

Unlike Wright, Oliva, or Utley, Pedroia won an MVP award (and Rookie of the Year as well), and unlike all of those players except Utley, he won a World Series (two, not counting his 2018 bystander role). Pedroia scores a 94 (short of “a good possibility”) on the Bill James Hall of Fame Monitor, which dishes out credit for things that have tended to sway voters: seasons with eye-catching plateaus such as 30 homers, 100 RBI, and 100 runs, careers at .300 or better, awards, league leads in key stats, and playoff appearances. That’s the same score as Utley, and 20 points ahead of Wright, but 20 behind Oliva, a three-time batting champion.

Even with about one full season lost to injuries during the 2008–16 span, Pedroia’s 46.7 WAR ranks seventh for that period, behind Adrian Beltré (52.4), Miguel Cabrera (51.6), Canó (50.9), Evan Longoria (48.1), Joey Votto (48.0), and Mike Trout (47.7, despite not debuting until 2011) — good company but not all Hall of Famers. His 51.9 career WAR, 41.0 peak WAR, and 46.5 JAWS are all a bit better than Wright’s numbers (49.2/39.5/44.3), and he’s 19th in JAWS at second base, while Wright is 27th at third base.

But as far as second basemen on this ballot go, Pedroia is still looking up at Utley (64.5/49.3/56.9 in a career that was about 1,100 PA longer). Among second basemen, Pedroia’s 41.0 peak score ranks 16th, 3.4 points below the standard — about half a win per year — and below 12 of the 20 enshrinees at the position. The eight second basemen he’s ahead of were all elected via the Veterans Committee; he has a higher JAWS than seven of them. He doesn’t outdo any of the BBWAA honorees, however.

Last summer, in checking in on the progress that current players are making towards Cooperstown, I did some number crunching and found that of the eligible players reaching 40.0 WAR during their best seven seasons — weeding out those active, not yet eligible, or not eligible at all (Pete Rose and Shoeless Joe Jackson), and adjusting downward to 32.0 WAR for catchers, whose values are constrained by limitations of playing time — over three-quarters are enshrined, including those in the Class of 2024 (Beltré, Joe Mauer, and Todd Helton):

Pedroia is counted among the ineligible second baseman for the moment, because he has not yet completed this election cycle. He’ll bring the percentage down a bit once he does, but that’s not the point; it’s that this more or less confirms he was on a Hall of Fame path.

As with Wright, who eked out 6.2% in his debut last year to retain eligibility, I suspect Pedroia will get enough votes to stick around on the ballot for at least another year, but I don’t see him building to 75% any more than I do Wright. Position players with high, Hall-caliber peaks but overly short careers don’t tend to get rewarded with election, as Nomar Garciaparra (44.3/43.1/43.7) will remind you. Pedroia’s peak is much higher than those of bygone MVP winners such as Don Mattingly and Dale Murphy who don’t measure up as well in JAWS either, but I don’t see that as increasing his chances.

On a ballot where I’m already considering Félix Hernández and even Brian McCann (I’m firmly for Russell Martin) in order to further voters’ conversations about the shapes of 21st century starting pitcher careers and the value of pitch framing, I don’t anticipate finding room for Pedroia (or Wright). But as he’s already banked five of the 34 public votes in the Tracker (13.9%), I think we’ll be talking about his candidacy again next year, and perhaps for awhile longer.

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