Jeff Hoffman Addresses His March 2015 FanGraphs Scouting Report

Jeff Hoffman is a different pitcher than the one who was drafted ninth overall by the Toronto Blue Jays in 2014. The 32-year-old right-hander has changed organizations multiple times, most recently moving from the Phillies back to his original team on a three-year, $33 million contract he signed in January. He earned that deal following back-to-back years in which he came into his own on the mound. Since being signed off the scrap heap by Philadelphia prior to the 2023 season, Hoffman has made 122 relief appearances and logged a 2.28 ERA, a 2.58 FIP, and a 33.4% strikeout rate over 118 2/3 innings. Before his breakthrough, he’d appeared in 134 games with a 5.68 ERA and a 5.34 FIP over 348 1/3 innings from 2016-2022.

Expectations were high when he entered pro ball. A potential first overall pick before injuring his elbow during his draft season at East Carolina University, Hoffman ranked second on our 2015 Blue Jays Top Prospects list despite having undergone Tommy John surgery the previous summer.

What did his FanGraphs scouting report look like at that time? Moreover, what does he think of it all these years later? Curious to find out, I shared some of what our then-lead prospect analyst Kiley McDaniel wrote back in 2015 and asked Hoffman to respond to it.

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“He broke out in the summer before the draft on the Cape, flashing an 80 fastball and 65 or 70 curveball from an athletic delivery, projectable frame and shockingly good feel to pitch given the power stuff.

“The arsenal has changed a little bit since then.” Hoffman said of McDaniel’s description. “But it’s funny how certain pitches play at certain levels. My curveball was a pitch I was known for, but then I got to pro ball and, year-by-year, it became more apparent that it wasn’t a pitch that was helping my cause. Especially in Colorado. It was a big breaking ball, and it’s obviously hard to throw those there.

“I still have a pretty good fastball and try to be as athletic as possible. The feel part… I have a different mentality now. I care less about being able to move the ball to very small locations on the plate. I focus more on being through the middle of the plate, letting the action of the pitches do their job.”

“He didn’t look the same in the spring, and just as he was making adjustments to his delivery to regain prior form, his elbow popped and he got Tommy John surgery.”

“I actually had a decent year up until then,” Hoffman recalled. “There were some overuse issues, maybe. You know how it is in college; your best guys are going as long as possible because you’re only out there one time a week. It was unfortunate timing. But in the long run it gave me good perspective. I was also able to focus on my body for a full year before really starting my pro career. I feel like that was big from a physical standpoint.

“The adjustments I was making were to my curveball. If I remember correctly, the outing before my elbow popped, I had probably the worst offspeed of my college career. I couldn’t land anything. So, midweek that week, we threw a lot of breaking balls. We threw more volume than normal, and then that next start it just went.”

“The Jays thought he wouldn’t get out of the top 5, so they were pleased to land him with the 9th overall pick.”

“The injury happened around a month before the draft, so we had some time to relay the information to clubs,” Hoffman explained. “If I remember correctly, the Blue Jays were the first team with two picks in the first round — I think a couple teams had two picks — and I definitely didn’t want to fall out of the top 10. With all the work I’d put in, it would have stunk to fall a long way down the board.

“Had I relayed that I would have signed for below slot, I’m sure that some other teams would have been on me. Maybe I would have gotten picked sooner. But my messaging was clear: I wanted my full slot value for the pick I was taken at.”

“Hoffman drew comparisons to Adam Wainwright and Justin Verlander when he was at his best on the Cape.”

“That’s a great compliment,” Hoffman said. “Being compared to those guys… I mean, when I hear stuff like that it’s fuel. I knew that I wasn’t those guys, but it gave me something to work towards. Verlander was at the top of his game at that time. Wainwright was, too. Being looked at in that sense means a lot.”

“It’s impossible to know what version of Hoffman will emerge when rehab is over… [and] what type of pitcher he’ll be going forward.”

“It can go any which way,” Hoffman said. “You’ve seen my journey. It’s been a rocky one. The bumps and bruises are kind of why you’ve got the version of me that you have right now.

“When I came back from my surgery, I still had my whole development in front of me. I missed that first year, so I didn’t really start my pro career until 2015. Then I was in the big leagues in 2016. I still had a lot of room to grow. There was a long way to go from surgery to being a serviceable major league pitcher.

“My arsenal… I mean, I tried to throw the curveball in Colorado. Their analytics department isn’t necessarily up to speed with the rest of the league, and it was just, ‘Hey, throw fastballs and curveballs.’ That’s what the scouting report said my arsenal was, and there was never really any conversation about changing it. I added the slider with the help of the guys in Cincinnati, and in Minnesota the one month I spent in camp with them [in 2023]. The splitter I added on my own. So, my whole arsenal is different. I was fastball/curveball/changeup, and now I’m fastball/split/slider. I’m very different from that [2015] scouting report.”

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