Maple Leafs quarter-mark report: Grades, surprises, concerns
As the Maple Leafs hit the quarter-mark of the 2024-25 season, Luke Fox talks grades, an encouraging development and one reason for concern.
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TORONTO — They’re still good. But in a different way.
While no one would be surprised to see the Toronto Maple Leafs — co-owners of the longest active playoff streak — jostling for first place in the Atlantic Division as they hit the season’s quarter mark (12-6-2), how they’ve risen through the ranks has been compelling, encouraging.
Rather swiftly adopting the identity of their hard-checking head coach, Craig Berube, the Maple Leafs have prioritized defending over scoring, patience over highlights.
Their penalty kill is more efficient than their power play; their save percentage rates higher than their shooting percentage.
Albeit with a few hideous hiccups (the Columbus game, the Ottawa game, the St. Louis game), Berube’s bunch is building a bedrock based on a simple dump-and-chase system and hard work.
It’s a major reason why they’ve not just survived but thrived in the recent absence of Auston Matthews, carrying a 6-1 run into the second quarter.
“I thought that guys, through a man, stepped up. Some guys played some really good hockey throughout this time,” Berube says.
“I mean, there’s different guys and different roles and different things. They all stepped up and are all doing what they need to do to be successful.”
Most Encouraging Development: They’re getting saves
Among the 16 teams to qualify for last spring’s playoffs, only Tampa Bay made the cut with a worse team save percentage than Toronto’s (.893).
Despite dressing some of the world’s most gifted offensive threats, both teams got bounced in Round 1.
For as much time as analysts spend breaking down special teams and counterattacks and chances off the cycle, the winner of this “game of inches” — be it in a best-of-seven or on a sleepy November Thursday — often boils down to: Who got the key saves?
Standing tall behind an improved blueline and a stingier system, the Maple Leafs are now getting the fourth-best goaltending in the league.
The only time over the past 20 years the Leafs got decidedly better goaltending than their playoff opponent, they won the series (Ilya Samsonov over Andrei Vasilevskiy, 2023).
If Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll can keep rolling like this, get excited.
Most Concerning Development: So… North American doctors can’t help Matthews?
When “day to day” morphs into a fourth week, when a superstar player stops skating and starts flying across the Atlantic Ocean for treatment, yeah, we’ll call that concerning.
Even if the organization itself maintains that no concern is necessary.
“I’m not concerned at all,” Berube said Tuesday.
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OK. Fair enough.
For all involved, we hope this indeed is a solvable issue with the No. 1 centre’s upper body, a late-November blip that drifts and disappears in the rearview.
Because we can’t imagine any team lasting four rounds without the services of a healthy $13.25-million talent.
Top-six forwards: B+
Despite some quality individual performances, this has hardly been a banner quarter for Toronto’s top two lines, ostensibly built to carry this roster on most nights.
Injuries to preseason Rocket favourite Matthews (five goals in 11 games) and the struggling Max Domi (zero goals, six assists in 19 games) haven’t helped.
The power play — long a regular-season weapon of this group — got off to a wretched start and should be better than its current 14th-place ranking (20 per cent).
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Thank goodness, the resurgent John Tavares (point per game), dynamic Mitch Marner (team-high 26 points) and dominant William Nylander (top five leaguewide with 13 goals) have continued their expected impact. And that sophomore Matthew Knies (eight goals, 12 points) has supplied a few game-breaking moments.
Otherwise, the injury bug (we see you, Max Pacioretty and Calle Järnkrok) and the 21-goal production lost by top-line winger Tyler Bertuzzi would’ve had a more significant negative impact on the top six.
Bottom-six forwards: C–
Outside of Berube’s preference for low-event hockey, the greatest reason for Toronto’s falloff from being the NHL’s second-most dangerous offensive team (3.63 goals per game in 2023-24) to its 16th (3.05) is the wasteland that is bottom-six scoring.
Some nice individual performances — Steven Lorentz has exceeded all expectations on the fourth line, and Bobby McMann has shown flashes of fantastic — haven’t been enough to offset the shrug-worthy contributions from the rest of the group.
David Kämpf, Ryan Reaves, Pontus Holmberg, Conor Dewar, Nick Robertson, Domi and Alex Steeves have combined to score one garbage-time goal past a netminder.
Part of that may be chalked up to injury or ice time, but this is the area screaming for improvement.
Which is why the callups of Fraser Minten and Nikita Grebenkin are so refreshing — and why Treliving should still make a trade.
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Defence: A
The Maple Leafs are a defensive juggernaut?
Believe it.
Toronto rounds the 20-game mark as the stingiest team in the Atlantic (2.5 goals against per game), permitting two goals or fewer in 11 of their outings.
Their seventh-ranked penalty kill has taken great strides under new assistant Lane Lambert. Chris Tanev and Jake McCabe have formed one of the best shutdown pairs in hockey. Oliver Ekman-Larsson has been edgy and versatile and worth every penny. And there has been increased buy-in to protecting the crease and mitigating risk.
Leads feel safer than ever in Leafland.
“That’s winning hockey,” said Woll, following Wednesday’s gritty, 26-block performance in front of him. “That’s the way we’re trending and trying to play more. And especially when you have some of your biggest guys out, it’s really cool to see guys step in and step up and play to our system.”
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Now, when high-powered offences roll through town, they know goals will be hard to come by.
“Their back end has been great,” Connor McDavid said Saturday. “Tanny helps a lot. He’s so solid.”
Goaltending: A+
Outside of $12-million-a-year-hunting Igor Shesterkin and the New York Rangers, who has the best goaltending in the Eastern Conference?
Yep, Toronto.
Worries over the fact that neither Woll nor Stolarz have ever appeared in so many as 29 games in a single NHL season have been quelled by their excellence in the early going, building an impressive .913 team save percentage in a .902 league.
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Woll (4-2-0, .922) has rediscovered his groove after a pre-season groin injury forced a late start, and Stolarz has been nothing short of elite in his first legit shot at No. 1 status.
Calm and consistent, massive and athletic, the New Jersey native has not only amassed the NHL’s best saver percentage (.927) and proved to be a free agency steal, but he’s also jamming his way into the Team USA roster conversation.
QUARTER MARK AWARDS
Most Valuable Player: Mitch Marner
Most Improved Player: Matthew Knies
Best Defensive Player: Chris Tanev
