Matrix Reloaded: Offseason Breakdown Tables Extravaganza

The offseason isn’t done until the season starts, but updates to the Offseason Matrices are fewer and farther between with each successive day. There’s just not that much left to happen: A few more players should sign MLB deals, and a few dozen others who were non-roster invitees this spring will find their way onto the main page of the FA Matrix after they make Opening Day rosters. There’ll be a few waiver claims as teams finalize rosters, and maybe some trades of larger significance, but perhaps not. Largely, what you see with teams right now is what you get. So, I figured now is a great time to recap what happened and give you a ridiculous amount of data in sortable tables.

As a reminder, the offseason document currently includes only free agency and trades, meaning that all of the dollar figures in the below tables correspond to free agent spending only, not payroll added via trades or extensions. For example, the extensions that Lawrence Butler (seven years, $65.5 million) and Brent Rooker (five years, $60 million) signed with the A’s this offseason aren’t included. If you’re curious about how these deals impact their full financial picture, head on over to the RosterResource payroll pages, where you’ll find that the two extensions bring the team’s luxury tax payroll to about $115 million for 2025. As extensions are the Offseason Matrices’ one big blind spot, I plan on including those next offseason!

Before diving in, here are the notable players still on the free agent market who have at least decent odds of securing last-minute MLB contracts:

• Catchers: Yasmani Grandal, James McCann

• Infielders: Anthony Rizzo

• Outfielders: Alex Verdugo, David Peralta

• Utilitymen: Whit Merrifield

• Designated hitters: J.D. Martinez

• Righty starters: Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, Spencer Turnbull, José Urquidy

• Lefty starters: Patrick Corbin

• Righty relievers: David Robertson, Hunter Strickland, Dillon Tate, Craig Kimbrel, Joe Kelly

• Lefty relievers: Jalen Beeks, Brooks Raley, Drew Smyly, Will Smith

And now for the sortable tables, with a little bit of commentary in between:

Reaching $3.5 billion isn’t out of the question even as commitments have slowed, with some free agents lingering and plenty of NRIs set to make Opening Day rosters. A couple of players, Ben Gamel and Ty France, are on contracts that become fully guaranteed if they make the Opening Day roster, so they’ll get added to the total if they break camp with their respective clubs.

Yes, the Cardinals still haven’t spent a cent on a major league free agent. They haven’t even signed anyone to a split contract, and the only player they’ve signed to a minor league deal who played in the majors last year is reliever Nick Anderson, who’s been torched for five runs in 2 1/3 spring training innings. As someone who enjoys completionism and checking things off a list — I play way too much Balatro, and no, I’m not making as much progress as I’d like winning against the higher-stake decks — I’m begging the Cardinals to do something, anything. Inject a Kyle Gibson re-signing into my veins like I’m Demi Moore in The Substance — I don’t care about the side effects. Add one of the relievers that you’re apparently “in touch” with, and I’ll send you a gift basket, John Mozeliak. Would it help if I asked nicely?

Six players (Juan Soto, Max Fried, Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, Willy Adames, and Alex Bregman) signed contracts worth more than the entirety of the NL Central’s free agent commitments.

Soto signed the longest contract in MLB history, a record that, at least in free agency, should take a long time to break.

Also signing deals of four-plus years were Tanner Scott and Nick Pivetta for four years; Snell and Anthony Santander for five years; Burnes for six years; Adames for seven years; and Fried for eight years.

Scott Boras still has some clients looking for jobs, namely J.D. Martinez, Spencer Turnbull, and Nick Senzel. But those three, plus whichever of his NRIs (Jose Iglesias, Brendan Rodgers, Joey Gallo, Shintaro Fujinami, Matt Moore) win spots out of camp, won’t be quite enough to give his agency a majority of the money committed in free agency. Boras shouldn’t be too bummed about it, though; a plurality of the money and nearly $1.7 billion isn’t too shabby.

Every year, plenty of free agents get the short end of the stick and have to settle for minor league deals despite strong seasons. This offseason, Iglesias is chief among them, as his BABIP-buoyed 2.5-win season wasn’t enough to earn him a major league deal.

Plenty of the above players will make Opening Day rosters and ultimately lock in decent salaries. Right now on RosterResource, we have Iglesias, Canha, Rodgers, and Chafin on projected rosters. Other notable veterans who signed minor league deals and are expected to make the Opening Day roster include: Gallo, Shelby Miller, Héctor Neris, Brandon Drury, J.D. Davis, Tim Anderson, Génesis Cabrera, Tyler Matzek, Lou Trivino, and Colin Poche.

No Soto-level players were traded this time around, but the offseason still saw two four-win players get moved, another two three-win players, and an elite closer in Williams. There were also three prospects traded from our Top 100 Prospects list: Kyle Teel (no. 49, to the White Sox in the Crochet trade), Cam Smith (no. 70, from the Cubs to the Astros in the Tucker deal), Starlyn Caba (no. 87, from the Phillies to the Marlins in the Luzardo trade).

Of course, none of these names are going to jump off the page — if they did, they wouldn’t have been exposed to waivers in the first place. But that doesn’t mean none of these players will contribute. Declan Cronin, Collin Snider, Romy Gonzalez, Miguel Andujar, Jeremiah Estrada, and Jalen Beeks were all waiver claims who ended up performing well in 2024.

Thanks for following along with the Matrices this offseason; your support means a lot. I’m always looking for more tabs to add and ways to refine the offseason document, so if you have any suggestions, leave a comment!

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