Max Scherzer Takes Flight to Toronto

Max Scherzer is heading north of the border. On the heels of an injury-marred season, the three-time Cy Young winner agreed to a one-year, $15.5 million contract with the Blue Jays on Thursday. The deal is still pending a physical, no trivial matter for a 40-year-old pitcher who was limited to nine starts in 2023.

Scherzer spent the last season and change with the Rangers after being acquired from the Mets ahead of the 2023 trade deadline, and the past three seasons on a three-year, $130 million contract that set a record for the highest average annual value for a pitcher. This time around it’s former Tigers and Mets teammate Justin Verlander, whose subsequent two-year, $86.67 million deal with New York matched Scherzer’s AAV, more or less setting the market for over-40 future Hall of Famers coming off injury plagued seasons for AL West teams. He signed a one-year, $15 million deal with the Giants earlier this month.

The Rangers didn’t get much out of Scherzer, whose time in Texas added up to just 17 regular season and three postseason starts interrupted by five separate trips to the injured list. That count doesn’t even include his being replaced on the World Series roster after leaving Game 3 with back spasms. Fortunately for the Rangers, they wrapped up their win over the Diamondbacks in five games, nipping in the bud any what-might-have-beens regarding Scherzer missing a potential Game 7 start.

Alas, those back problems spilled over into last year. Still experiencing pain in mid-December, roughly six weeks after his World Series exit, Scherzer underwent surgery to alleviate a herniated disc. The timing of the surgery meant it would eat into his 2024 season, and it did. After being slowed by a nerve issue upon making his first rehab appearance for Triple-A Round Rock on April 24, he didn’t make his season debut until June 23 against the Royals, holding them hitless for 4.1 innings before surrendering an MJ Melendez double and exiting after five scoreless frames. He made seven more starts without interruption before being sidelined by shoulder fatigue in early August. After missing a month and a half, he made just one more start, on September 14 agains the Mariners. Scratched from his next turn due to left hamstring tightness, he was soon diagnosed with a strain, ending his season.

In all, Scherzer totaled just 43.1 innings over his nine starts in 2024, putting up a 3.95 ERA and 4.18 FIP. His 22.6% strikeout rate was his lowest mark since 2011, and while his 5.6% walk rate was nearly a full percentage point below his career mark, he served up a gaudy 1.45 homers per nine.

His stuff was down, as you might have expected. When he was available, Scherzer’s four-seam fastball averaged just 92.5 mph, down 1.2 mph from 2023 and his fifth straight season of losing velo, from a high of 94.9 mph in 2019. Both PitchingBot and Stuff+ viewed his arsenal as significantly diminished; he dropped from 51 in 2023 to 46 in ’24 via the former model (where 50 is average on a 20–80 scouting scale) and from 101 to 84 in ’24 via the latter (where 100 is average on an indexed scale). That said, Scherzer did score well enough in the command metrics of both models (62 for PitchingBot, 106 for Stuff+) to mitigate some of his lost velocity and movement. Drilling down into his numbers, his 14.6% swinging strike rate was 1.4 points ahead of 2023 and 0.1 below his ’20–23 combined rate. His 36% chase rate was over five points ahead of 2023, and in fact higher than any of his his full-season rates. While his xwOBAs against four of his five pitches (the four-seamer, curve, cutter, and changeup) rose relative to 2023, both his curve and slider did generate whiff rates of at least 40%.

So while there are some good signs poking through the numbers, the mixed bag is a reminder that nothing is guaranteed for a pitcher of his vintage. Still, there is room for optimism, building upon what Scherzer said when his season ended early about heading into the winter with no major health questions:

“Look, this season’s been obviously frustrating for me… Probably the most frustrating season of my career. But the only good news is now I can go into the offseason healthy. My back’s good, my arm’s good. The real serious things that you need to think about and talk about are actually in a good spot.”

Earlier this month, Scherzer threw for an unspecified number of teams — the Blue Jays, Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, Phillies, Braves, Red Sox, and Cubs were among them — at Cressey Sports Performance in Florida. “He looked like Max Scherzer,” a source told MLB.com. “His Cy Young days are definitely behind him, but he’s still good enough to be an effective starter.”

That Scherzer wound up with the Blue Jays shouldn’t be too surprising, as they’ve been the team most frequently linked to him this winter. Then again, they’ve been linked to practically every free agent of note, resulting in entries in the We Tried Tracker for the likes of Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Clay Holmes, Tanner Scott, Juan Soto and more. They were a finalist for Roki Sasaki as well.

The Blue Jays’ failure to land so many of their targets in recent years has made them the butt of jokes. Prior to this month’s additions of reliever Jeff Hoffman (three years, $33 million), outfielder Anthony Santander (five years, $92.5 million, though just a $14.3 million AAV after deferrals), and now Scherzer, their only major league free agent signing was reliever Yimi García (two years, $15 million).

They may not be done, as the Blue Jays have emerged as the top alternative for Pete Alonso if he doesn’t return to the Mets. Even if he does join the Jays, the various additions probably won’t match the impact that an assortment starting with one top-tier free agent would, but it’s not as though they’re simply stuffing the savings under a mattress. They’re less than $8 million short of the third Competitive Balance Tax threshold ($281 million). In that light, one has to wonder if the Scherzer addition is either a sign that they don’t think they can land Alonso, or that they’re anticipating moving a starter if they do.

Scherzer joins a rotation that was reasonably stable but rather middling in 2024, one that ranked ninth in the AL in ERA (3.95) and 10th in FIP (4.15) and that already seems stocked with mid-rotation guys but lacks a clear frontliner. Let’s face it, a team whose top starter manages just 2.9 WAR — as Kevin Gausman did, after averaging 5.2 from 2021–23 — isn’t much of a threat to make the playoffs unless just about everything else goes right. Gausman, Chris Bassitt and José Berríos, all of whom are still around, each made at least 31 starts and together accounted for 544.1 innings, but just 6.1 WAR. Scherzer totaled 9.9 WAR in 2021–22, but the years and injuries since then strongly suggest he’s no longer a 5-WAR threat and is more likely additional bulk for the middle, though the experience and competitive fire he brings could pay some additional dividends by rubbing off on his fellow starters.

The unit should be rounded out by Bowden Francis, who was impressive in a late-season trial in the rotation. He even took no-hitters into the ninth inning on August 24 against the Angels and September 11 against the Mets, not that anyone should confuse him with Dave Stieb. The Blue Jays do need to build some depth into their plan given that Scherzer made just 50 starts in 2022–23. Yariel Rodríguez, who made 21 starts with a 4.47 ERA and 4.34 FIP as a 27-year-old rookie, is likely ticketed for a swingman role that could make him the most likely fill-in if Scherzer or anyone else goes down. Top prospect Jake Bloss is another option to start, though with just 31.1 mostly rough innings at Triple-A last year (plus 44.2 good ones at Double-A), he probably needs more seasoning. Then again, it’s not hard to envision general manager Ross Atkins dealing one of the three mainstays to accommodate, say, the addition of Alonso and then making do with Rodríguez until Bloss is ready. Alek Manoah could be another late-season option, as he’s targeting an August return from hybrid Tommy John/internal brace surgery.

As with last winter, when they failed in their pursuit of Shohei Ohtani, the Blue Jays’ reality has often fallen short of their big ambitions. Signing a 40-year-old future Hall of Famer who probably still has something left — but who isn’t likely to contend for another Cy Young — is right in line with that.

Source