NHL Playoff Push: Would the picture change in a 3-2-1 system?

With the playoffs less than a month away, the NHL’s 32 general managers convened in Palm Beach County, Fla. on Monday, meeting with the league’s brass to mull potential changes to the game. 

An array of issues were discussed over the course of the three-day annual meeting, the NHL presenting GMs with data on league-wide trends, and offering some clarity on goalie interference ahead of the post-season, too. For fans, all eyes were on the potential changes to the league’s overtime rules, after a trial run of a longer 3-on-3 period at the 4 Nations Face-Off seemed to go over well. But there was another aspect of the 4 Nations setup that sparked some interest among the hockey world as well — the points system. 

Unlike the system currently in place in the league, wherein teams are awarded two points for a win and one point for getting to overtime and losing, the 4 Nations tournament opted for the 3-2-1 points system. In that setup, teams are given three points for a regulation win, two points for a win in overtime or a shootout, and one point for a loss in overtime or a shootout, the system rewarding teams who can deliver a decisive win without extra time.

It’s a hypothetical that fans have seemed to wonder about annually in the wake of the NHL introducing a framework that rewards teams for losing: just how much would the playoff landscape change if this alternate system was in place? While the NHL leaned on the 3-2-1 system for the 4 Nations tournament, it appears those clamouring for the points-system revamp will have to keep waiting for the time being, with no discussion of such a change at this week’s GM meetings. 

If the league did take that swing and revamp its point system, how much of an impact would it actually have? For the latest iteration of Playoff Push, we look at how the standings, and potential playoff matchups, would line up if this alternate system was in place right now:

Above are the current standings in the West. And overall, if the 3-2-1 system was in place, the conference would look roughly the same at this moment. In that alternate reality, Winnipeg, Dallas and Colorado would still rank as the Nos. 1, 2 and 3 in the Central, while Vegas, Edmonton and Los Angeles would still slot in as the top three in the Pacific, the latter two jostling for home-ice advantage.

The wild-card race would still have Minnesota and St. Louis holding down both spots. And behind them, a number of playoff hopefuls would still be nipping at their heels.

The system currently in place has gifted us some hard-fought wild-card races this season, with plenty of clubs across the league still within striking distance of a ticket to the dance as we head into the final weeks of the season. 

Currently in the West, Vancouver sits just one point back of St. Louis, while Calgary sits just one point back of the Canucks. In the 3-2-1 system, that race would be just as close — Calgary and Vancouver would sit tied with 101 points, the pair just a point behind St Louis’s 102. But it would be a tougher gap to close for the teams behind them, like Utah — who sit just four points out of wild-card spot currently, but would see that stretched to six points in this alternate system.

In the East, it would be largely the same story. In either system, Washington, Carolina and New Jersey rank first, second and third in the Metro, while Florida, Toronto and Tampa Bay line up similarly in the Atlantic.

But the East’s wild-card race would be more notably upended by the 3-2-1 system.

Right now, in the current system, that race is wide open. Ottawa is holding strong in the first slot, while Montreal currently has hold of the second. Behind Montreal, the Rangers, Islanders, Blue Jackets, Red Wings and Bruins sit just a handful of points back, all of those squads within five points of a playoff spot. With a month to go, every one of those clubs has a decent chance of getting hot and breaking into the playoff race before the year’s end.

If regulation wins were the real prize, though, it would be the Rangers, not the Canadiens, holding on to that second spot. And the rest of the race would be all but an afterthought.

With more regulation wins than any other club in the wild-card race — including Ottawa — the Rangers would jump up into that second wild-card slot. Montreal would fall outside the playoff picture for the moment, with a four-point gap to close. And the clubs behind them would face an even more insurmountable hill to climb. The Islanders, sitting next-closest, would be in the mix, just one point back, but behind them, the Red Wings and Blue Jackets would have an eight-point hill to climb. 

Taking it all in, the grass doesn’t exactly seem much greener on the other side. The most significant change the 3-2-1 system would seemingly bring would be to take some of the air out of the competitive wild-card races we’re seeing right now, to have it all essentially locked up as we head into the final stretch of the campaign.

Some other alternate systems would throw even more chaos into the mix. Following the same principle that the 3-2-1 system is built on, rewarding regulation wins, what if the impact of extra time was minimized even more? Another alternate reality floating out there — though with far less chance of ever being implemented — is one that would do away with shootouts altogether. If teams were awarded two points for a win, and one point if a game couldn’t be decided by open play (i.e. finishing as a tie rather than with a shootout), and zero points for a loss, how would it all shake out then?

In that scenario, we’d see some notably different potential matchups, at least on one side of the bracket.

In the West, the Jets would still be top dog in the division and the conference, with Dallas and Colorado behind them in the Central. We’d see Vegas still atop the Pacific, trailed by Edmonton and Los Angeles, and Minnesota and St. Louis as the wild-card clubs.

Out East, Washington would still reign, and Carolina and New Jersey would hold their current spots in the Metro. The wild-card race would still see Ottawa and Montreal on track to get into the dance. 

But in the Atlantic, it would be Toronto sitting first in the division, with a bit of breathing room over the two Floridian clubs. The Bolts would sit second and the Panthers — the division leader in the current system — would drop to third.

With Montreal and Ottawa holding down wild-card spots in this alternate reality, that scenario would potentially see the Maple Leafs meet the Canadiens in the first round, rather than another nervy run-in with the Lightning.

The hypotheticals are endless. And the debate about how much of an impact shootouts, or losing games in extra time, should have on the number of points teams are awarded is a fair one. Still, the positive that comes with the current system seems fairly clear when lined up alongside the alternate options — it gives us meaningful games in late March and early April, a meaningful wild-card race to track down the stretch, and something to hold onto for fringe clubs hoping to throw some wrenches into the conference behemoths’ plans.

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