Notes on every Phillies pitcher through 4 games

Notes on every Phillies pitcher through 4 games originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia

Off to a 3-1 start, the Phillies have a great chance to win a second consecutive series Wednesday or Thursday when they resume play against the Rockies at Citizens Bank Park. Zack Wheeler will be on the mound for his second start against one of the majors’ worst offenses, one that struggles even more on the road.

Here’s a note on all 13 pitchers so far:

Zack Wheeler

The only run the Nationals scored off Wheeler came on a Keibert Ruiz home run on a 96 mph fastball in and off the plate to conclude a 12-pitch at-bat.

Wheeler has made 65 regular-season starts since 2023. In 39 of them, he’s pitched at least six innings and allowed two runs or fewer — five more such starts than any pitcher in baseball.

Shadows gave Nationals and Phillies hitters even less of a chance on Opening Day than they’d have usually had vs. Wheeler and Mackenzie Gore, but while Gore outdueled Wheeler that afternoon, the Phillies’ ace didn’t make many, if any mistakes.

Jesus Luzardo

Luzardo’s four-seam fastball averaged 96.9 mph in his first start, the highest velocity of any left-handed starter in the majors so far this season.

His sinker averaged 96.0, second in the majors among lefty starters to Cristopher Sanchez (96.5). Luzardo struck out 11 over five innings.

This is going to be a special rotation if the Phillies can keep at least four of the five guys healthy.

Aaron Nola

Nola has allowed 36 home runs in his last 36 starts, including playoffs. With how frequently he is around the plate and how much he challenges hitters, it seems this will always be a thing.

It isn’t such a big deal when nobody is on base. Allowing a solo home run is the same as allowing three straight singles, in fact it’s probably better because of the fewer baserunners and high-stress pitches. Nola has always done a good job of limiting walks and hits. His .287 career opponents’ on-base percentage is more than 30 points lower than the league average over that decade. He obviously has not always done a good job of limiting longballs.

Cristopher Sanchez

It’s not just that his sinker velocity is up 2 mph, his slider is as well, giving hitters less time to judge and react to it. Since June 2023, the changeup has been one of the best in baseball, not just from the eye test but statistically. Sanchez’ sinker already generates a high level of groundballs but at 97 has a chance to miss many more bats than at 94-95. His slider hasn’t been nearly as consistent as the changeup but has been a plus pitch at times. All three offerings could be better than ever this season if the command doesn’t vanish.

Taijuan Walker

While his velocity was closer to the 2023 range in spring training, Walker still struck out only eight batters in 17 innings. He isn’t going to miss many bats and will be reliant on pinpoint fastball command and the success of his splitter. Last season, he couldn’t command the splitter well enough to give hitters a reason to offer at it and they instead wailed away at an upper-80s fastball. At 92 mph, he would have slightly more room to breathe, though still not a ton.

This is a crucial month for Walker’s baseball future. If he pitches well in Ranger Suarez’ absence for three, four, five starts, it could increase his appeal to a more starter-needy team. It could also give the Phillies confidence that he’d serve a purpose as a long man in Year 3 of 4 under contract.

Jordan Romano

Good to see a quick, 11-pitch, two-strikeout bounceback performance to end the home opener after a two-run appearance in the eighth inning on Opening Day.

It seems like Romano and Jose Alvarado will be the right-handed and left-handed closing options, though Orion Kerkering and Matt Strahm could pick up a few saves as well.

Jose Alvarado

Averaged 100.0 mph with his sinker on Monday and unsurprisingly leads all lefty relievers in average velocity thus far. Looks ridiculously good, it’s just a matter of maintaining confidence and control. So much of Alvarado’s game is about confidence and he’s never felt better, physically or stuff-wise.

Orion Kerkering

Is this guy no-nonsense or what? Kerkering has worked out of two jams with two men aboard by going right after hitters with a top-tier slider-fastball combination. On Opening Day, he survived two jam-job bloop hits by inducing more soft contact.

In the home opener, he struck out power-hitting Michael Toglia with a 97 mph fastball that probably caught too much plate, but Toglia wasn’t on time because the at-bat had been all sliders and that’s what hitters must prepare for first vs. Kerkering, especially with two strikes.

Kerkering turns 24 on Friday. There’s quite a future in front of him as a closer or high-leverage reliever. He was drafted in the fifth round in 2022 and no pitcher drafted before him has been more impactful, with Kerkering, Ben Joyce and Jonathan Cannon the top three so far.

Matt Strahm

He’s averaged 92 mph with his fastball and sinker through two outings after missing time in camp with a left shoulder impingement, then cutting the top of a finger as the Phillies were leaving Clearwater. Last season, he averaged 93.5. It would not be surprising to see that average creep up as the month progresses, and Strahm has a deep enough mix of pitches and deception that he’s not wholly reliant on velo anyway.

Tanner Banks

Banks would be a solid second lefty in a lot of bullpens but is the Phillies’ third. They like his ability to go more than an inning if needed. He has a 3.42 ERA as a Phillie but oftentimes for a reliever the more important number is his rate of scoreless appearances. Banks has avoided an earned run in two-thirds of his — ideally that would be closer to 75%. (An example of an elite rate would be 2024 Jeff Hoffman at 87%).

Joe Ross

Curious to see who the Phillies turn to first when they need a long man after a short start. Ross has started plenty in his career and was signed to both provide rotation depth and another experienced right-handed relief option. He had a 1.78 ERA last season as a reliever. Ross, Banks and Carlos Hernandez are the three relievers the Phillies feel most comfortable using for more than an inning.

Jose Ruiz

Came out of nowhere to deliver a solid 2024 season, though it remains to be seen whether he can be the third-best right-handed reliever in a contending bullpen.

Carlos Hernandez

Legitimately one of the largest men in the sport. Listed at 6-4/255 but looks closer to 6-6/280. Did not pitch well in his first outing and is likely a guy Rob Thomson wants to get into another non-leverage situation soon for a chance to rebound.