Oilers Midseason Report: Best surprises, biggest questions
Despite another slow start to their season, the Oilers have established their position in the middle of a pack of legitimate Stanley Cup contenders. Mark Spector offers up his take on their first half.
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EDMONTON — A slow start and an NHL-best second quarter. That’s becoming par for the course for the Edmonton Oilers.
A season ago, Edmonton maintained its Q2 play through the second half of the season, then entered the playoffs as the hottest team since mid-November. The Oilers rode that momentum all the way to Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final.
This season is following the same pattern — slow start, good recovery — and though there is no guarantee the second half will be a continuation of their play from Games 21-41, the Oilers do have the best points percentage in the NHL at .775, and the most points (31) over that 21-game span.
But this is a halfway report, not a second-quarter report, and through the first half, the Oilers have established their position in the middle of a pack of legitimate Cup contenders. As of Monday, they sit six points back of Vegas in the Pacific with one fewer game played, a stated goal of Connor McDavid more than once this season: “Our goal is to win the division.”
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“I’ve been pretty happy across the board with the group,” said general manager Stan Bowman. “We like the roles that guys have settled into now. We’re more organized now than we were at the beginning of the season, and it took a while to sort that out.”
It hasn’t been perfect, adjusting to the regular-season grind after a playoff run that took them all the way to June 24 in Florida. The free agents the Oilers signed — namely Jeff Skinner and Viktor Arvidsson — haven’t been as impressive as the sneaky trades GM Stan Bowman made, adding Vasily Podkolzin and Ty Emberson.
But the Oilers’ game has definitely come around: They haven’t lost two straight in regulation since Nov. 4-6, more than two months and 27 games ago.
In its final 20 games of the first half, Edmonton went 15-4-1. Then it opened the second half with a come-from-behind win at Chicago for 16 wins in 21 games. Not too shabby.
The Oilers are ready to take a run at Vegas in the second half, looking for an important playoff edge against another Pacific power.
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KEY STATS
Record: 26-13-3 (2nd in Pacific Division, 8th in NHL)
Goals per game: 3.31 (8th in NHL)
Goals against per game: 2.79 (10th in NHL)
Power play: 24.8% (8th in NHL)
Penalty kill: 76.8% (24th in NHL)
BEST SURPRISE: Youthful additions
When Edmonton lost a pair of 23-year-olds to the St. Louis offer sheets in Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway — after trading away speedy 25-year-old Ryan McLeod for Bakersfield-bound Matt Savoie — age and speed were a concern.
Enter Podkolzin and Emberson, who have performed above expectation, bringing youthful energy to the NHL’s eldest roster.
Edmonton’s best player, Leon Draisaitl, is having the best year of his career in a season where his most prominent linemate by far has been Podkolzin (346 minutes together at five-on-five). Compare that to McDavid (219 minutes).
That Draisaitl’s even-strength numbers (24 goals, plus-26) lead the NHL, and his even-strength points are second only to Nathan MacKinnon (46 to 48), well, Podkolzin deserves his share of credit for that.
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Podkolzin has two moves: Get the puck, pass it to Draisaitl. As a scout said Saturday, mimicking Draisaitl talking about Podkolzin: “So you’re not only going to go get the puck for me, but you’re going to give it to me as well? Awesome!’”
As for Emberson, the Oilers have worked the young righty in well. He’s their No. 5 D-man today, and with just 70 NHL games played, Bowman may well have acquired a future No. 4 in that salary dump deal with San Jose for Cody Ceci.
BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT: Jeff Skinner. Full stop.
A few weeks before Bowman was hired as GM, team president Jeff Jackson worked July 1 free agency and brought home Skinner as a proposed top-six left winger. It hasn’t worked, and as the Oilers opened their second half in Chicago Saturday, Skinner sat out as a healthy scratch for the second time this season.
Skinner’s game hasn’t meshed with either McDavid’s or Draisaitl’s, and he’s a team-worst minus-10 despite playing just 12:36 per game — fourth-lowest among regular forwards.
If you can’t find a way to play with McDavid or Draisaitl, you can’t play in Edmonton’s top six. And if you’re a defensive liability, the coach might not play you at all.
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Skinner has a full no-movement clause in his deal, and as a 1,000-game NHLer who has never played a playoff game, he’d be reticent to accept a deadline deal to some seller at the bottom of the standings.
At an AAV of $3 million, this could become a problem in the second half.
BIG QUESTION FOR THE SECOND HALF: What can the team expect from Evander Kane?
Likely, the largest impact of the second half will come in the Kane mystery, as he rehabilitates from abdominal surgery and then an unexpected knee procedure that took place just last week.
Either the Oilers will have just over $5 million in LTIR cap space that is not prorated, should Kane not be able to play this regular season, or he will return, and they’ll hope to accrue about $3 million at the deadline, which would be prorated.
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Will Edmonton get its most physical forward back? Will a healthy Kane be able to catch up after not having played a game all season long? How much cap space will be available?
“It’s still status quo,” Bowman said. “The cap space is still a question and we’re still operating under the assumption that Evander will be back. If he’s not, that calculus changes.”
Either way, the Oilers should be able to add a defenceman, then perhaps even the depth centreman they require.
“We did have our meetings to identify players who would be of interest,” Bowman said. “We’ve got about a month of games (before the 4 Nations Face-Off), and we want our scouts to target those players. In conjunction with that, I’m going to start connecting with managers. I’m not sure who the sellers are going to be yet.”
The old Evander Kane would be the best add the Oilers could make. The question is, does that player exist anymore, in the short- or long-term?
