Pitch by Pitch With Two Hitting Geniuses

There are a lot of reasons to watch this World Series. There’s the history, the star power, the drama. We’ve had Ice Cube concerts and walk-off grand slams, controversial pitching decisions and defensive gems. I’m going to tell you a secret, though: None of those things has been my favorite part so far. The two preeminent strike zone controllers in the entire sport are facing off, and a showdown between Juan Soto and Mookie Betts is always worth watching.

Game 2 was a wonderful encapsulation of just what I’m talking about. Soto came up first, and he engaged Yoshinobu Yamamoto right away. Soto has a plan in every at-bat. It’s quite often the same plan: find a fastball, preferably high or inside, and hit it for a home run. He got started right away with a rip at a first-pitch fastball:

Advantage Yamamoto – but not that much of an advantage. Soto took two straight curveballs low – it’s really hard to fool him. Then Yamamoto came back with another fastball and Soto tried to hit it to Pasadena:

With two strikes, the game changed a bit. Soto couldn’t wait for his pitch anymore; he’d have to defend the zone even if it wasn’t his preferred launch area. So he fouled off a splitter that caught the bottom of the zone, then took another one that missed low. Now it was 3-2. Yamamoto had to decide whether to risk a walk or challenge Soto with a fastball. He chose the former, aiming a curveball towards the bottom edge. That’s a risky pitch against Soto; miss low, and he’s pretty likely to take it. Miss high, and it’s a cookie. But Yamamoto weighted it perfectly, and if you watch closely, you can see that Soto resigns himself to swinging after realizing it’ll probably catch the zone:

That’s a lot of work for one out, but you have to do it. You can’t face Soto on his terms. Look at how good of a job Yamamoto did of avoiding the danger zone:

You shouldn’t face Betts on his terms, either, and coincidentally, they’re pretty similar hitters in terms of approach. Betts is looking to turn on something inside, preferably low. His power is all to the pull side, and he generates that power by attacking inside pitches. Unlike Soto, he doesn’t have massive raw thump. While Soto takes an expansive approach to hitting fastballs, Betts stays focused. He’ll even hunt secondaries from time to time. He took Carlos Rodón’s first three pitches in the bottom of the first before he truly showed any interest in swinging. Then he found one he liked:

Rodón throws a lot of pitches like that, because no one has perfect strike zone command. It wasn’t awful by any means; he has the raw stuff to challenge people in the zone and get away with it. But he clearly wasn’t interested in another fastball. He dialed up a rarely used changeup and fooled Mookie. He just didn’t fool him quite enough:

That’s another spectacular Betts tool: a backup swing designed to punch things the other way. Rodón fooled him on that pitch; he thought it was going to be a fastball on the outer half instead of a changeup off the plate. But with enough bat control and a strong enough core to stay back, he managed to adjust his swing and punch it the other way.

Fooling Betts, even with two strikes, is no guarantee of a victory. The same is true of Soto. The next time he batted, Yamamoto started him with everything away. He landed a perfect 1-0 splitter, then tricked Soto into offering at another one in the same location:

Up 1-2, he fished for a strikeout with a splitter but missed badly. Then he broke out his slider for the first time – and hung one. Luckily for him, Soto was late to recognize the new offering and could only foul it away:

Even though he got away with that one, Yamamoto had a problem. The splitter just wasn’t fooling Soto, and what was he going to do, throw him another slider after that middle-middle one? A low-and-away fastball seemed like the best option. But he missed inside, and Soto made him pay:

It’s pretty remarkable – Yamamoto threw 13 pitches over two at-bats and only left fastballs in a hittable location twice. Soto swung through one and clobbered the other for a homer. Yamamoto couldn’t keep up his perfect aim forever, and even though the last location wasn’t awful in the abstract, it was clearly right where Soto wanted it:

In the bottom of the inning, Rodón had to deal with Betts again. And like Yamamoto, he was fixated on not venturing inside. Mookie was once again looking for a fastball to hit:

That foul ball was a warning: Don’t throw me another fastball, because I’m on it. Rodón took the occasion to start spinning things in. He tried a curveball – overcooked high. He tried a slider – wildly outside. He tried a changeup – it missed by a hair, and this time Betts recognized it out of his hand and let it go:

(For the record, the superimposed strike zone was wrong; that was a ball according to the Statcast zone.)

Betts wasn’t going to get involved with any secondary pitches until Rodón could get him to two strikes. Rodón realized it, and he didn’t want to issue a walk, so he went back to the fastball. He also knew he couldn’t leave it on the inner third. This is a great location for a 3-1 pitch:

Sometimes, you just have to tip your cap. That was great pitching and great hitting. Rodón identified a part of the zone he simply wasn’t going to touch, and he didn’t go there. Betts managed to adjust, largely because his understanding of the strike zone is near-perfect. Three secondaries for balls led to three takes. Two fastballs in the zone led to two swings and a single. And all that despite Rodón avoiding the parts of the zone where Betts is at his most powerful. This location chart looks to me like a win for Rodón, even though he lost the at-bat:

This isn’t to say that you can’t beat either hitter. They each went 2-for-4, with as many failures as successes. But it’s hard to beat them on their terms. Here are the two other hittable fastballs Soto saw:

Betts didn’t see another fastball for a strike, period. The closest he got was this Clay Holmes gem:

It’s crazy. I thought the pitchers did a sensational job, both in terms of gameplan and execution, against two excellent hitters. Both of those guys take their walks if opposing pitchers won’t attack the zone. Both of them are looking to ambush missed locations. But you can’t praise the pitchers too much – again, Soto and Betts each batted .500, and Soto hit a homer.

The two best hitters in the game this year were Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani. But their respective seconds are some of the best theater in baseball. Tonight, I’ll be enjoying the whole game. But I’ll particularly be enjoying the game within a game that occurs every time these two hitting geniuses bat. More of this, please.

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