Quick Shifts: Why Maple Leafs’ second line boosts playoff hope

A quick mix of the things we gleaned from the week of hockey, serious and less so, and rolling four lines deep. Brace yourself for the torpedo bat of hockey blogs.

1. As the Toronto Maple Leafs secure their ninth consecutive playoff berth — and stand alone with the longest active streak in the NHL, thanks to an epic Boston Bruins implosion — observers of this confounding era of Leafs hockey scour for reasons this spring will be different.

So much success and record-breaking! So little of it when it matters!

Well, here’s a biggie: The discovery and timely acceleration of a second line so offensively frightening it could thrive as most teams’ first unit.

The tremendous trio of John Tavares, William Nylander and Bobby McMann should present matchup fits for Jon Cooper or Paul Maurice or Travis Green, who still must throw their best defensive forwards at Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner’s top unit.

Wingers Nylander (42 goals, 80 points) and McMann (20 goals) have never scored so frequently. And the clock-rewinding Tavares (36 goals) hasn’t found the net this often as a Leaf since Year 1 of his seven-season contract. (He’s now in Year 7, if you haven’t heard.)

Coach Craig Berube likes to work in forward pairs, but good things come in threes.

“Putting Bobby on there just adds so much speed and strength to the line. He’s a big, strong guy that can skate. Seems like he’s always on the puck. Creates some battles for those guys,” Berube says.

“They’ve been effective since we’ve put them together. I’ve been happy with them.”

As he should. 

McMann, you may recall, began Berube’s tenure in the pressbox, a healthy scratch to begin the season. He was also injured and unavailable during Toronto’s 2024 first-round ouster by Boston. One big, timely goal from the power forward — who already has five this season — and who knows?

McMann’s next NHL playoff game will be his first.

The late-blooming 28-year-old is now playing the best and most purposeful hockey of his life. Never has he fit so well on a Leafs line.

Since McMann joined Tavares and Nylander, that trio has outscored the opposition 9-3 at even strength. 

McMann believes his decision-making — when to carry the puck across the blue and when to dump and give chase — is his greatest area of improvement. Those offensive reads are something he worked on with his former Marlies coach, Greg Moore. He learned the value of puck retrievals and blending smart, safe possessions with living to battle another shift.

He made a point to analyze video of other forwards who broke into the show late to figure out how to stick, to carve his niche as a complement to the stars.

McMann’s studies are paying off.

Despite starting just 44 per cent of its shifts in the offensive zone, McMann–Tavares–Nylander has generated 56 per cent of shots and 61 per cent of high-danger chances and expected goals 5-on-5, per NaturalStatTrick. (Sans McMann, the Nylander-Tavares duo’s underlying numbers aren’t as encouraging.)

“We all bring a different dynamic. John is so cerebral. He’s able to see plays all over the ice. Willy is just so good creating with his speed — how quick his feet are, how quick his hands are,” McMann explains. 

“I’m just trying to be competitive, get pucks back, and open up space for those guys.”

Well, the Maple Leafs’ new, improved second line could open up matchup nightmares for their Round 1 opponent.

2. NHL Awards ballots are due in two weeks. 

And while we’ll use all that time to stress and debate and investigate before settling on a list of finalists that enrage most fans, here’s a sneak peek at my top five under consideration in each category. (Writers don’t vote on the Vezina or Jack Adams, but writers can write about them.)

Hart Trophy: Leon Draisaitl, Nathan MacKinnon, Connor Hellebuyck, Cale Makar, Jack Eichel

Draisaitl’s generous lead in the goal race and ability to keep the Oilers afloat in an “off” year for Connor McDavid has me leaning toward the German, but strong cases can be made for all. 

Norris Trophy: Makar, Zach Werenski, Quinn Hughes, Victor Hedman, Josh Morrissey

That Werenski and Hughes are seemingly unable to push their teams into the post-season hurts. But not as much as Makar’s reaching 30 goals. What an accomplishment.

Vezina Trophy: Hellebuyck, Andrei Vasilevskiy, Jake Oettinger, Logan Thompson, Filip Gustavsson

It’s not going out on a limb to say that Hellebuyck will become the first back-to-back and first three-time Vezina champ since Martin Brodeur wrapped his run in 2008.

Calder Trophy: Lane Hutson, Dustin Wolf, Macklin Celebrini, Matvei Michkov, Zack Bolduc

This race was painfully close, until it wasn’t. Hutson has been otherworldly. And if Montreal squeaks into the playoffs, he should win in a landslide.

Selke Trophy: Sam Reinhart, Brandon Hagel, Anthony Cirelli, Jack Eichel, Aleksander Barkov

Incredibly tight race here. Could this be the season a winger wins it?

Jack Adams: Spencer Carbery, Scott Arniel, Jim Montgomery, Dean Evason, Travis Green

Another compelling competition. And while it’s difficult to argue against the rise of the Capitals, if the Blue Jackets or Martin St. Louis’s Montreal Canadiens make an unlikely post-season appearance, that could change the equation.

3. What a conundrum for Scott Arniel and the Winnipeg Jets.

On one hand, would it not be of benefit to give Vezina sure-shot and Hart contender Connor Hellebuyck a few days off? He’s only the busiest and most important goaltender in the Western Conference.

On the other hand? Uh-oh, here comes Dallas.

Winners of seven straight and riding a 10-game point streak, the Stars have clawed within four points of the Jets for the Central crown and hold a game in hand.

Should the Stars overtake Winnipeg for top seed, the Jets will slide into a nightmare matchup against Colorado. Nathan MacKinnon & Friends absolutely feasted on Hellebuyck last spring — pumping 24 goals by the all-star in five miserable games.

While it looks like Arniel will be forced to lean on Hellebuyck even more down the stretch here, Eric Comrie’s shutout of the Golden Knights Thursday is encouraging.

4. Quote of the Week.

“I love my parents and my sister and my girlfriend, but no present they’ve ever got me could live up to that.” —Rutger McGroarty, on playing on Sidney Crosby’s line on his 21st birthday.

5. “We don’t do this without Jordan Binnington,” Team Canada MVP Nathan MacKinnon said inside TD Garden six weeks ago, the visitors’ room floor still sticky with champagne.

That same sentiment could be echoed by any member of the St. Louis Blues, winners of 11 straight and hockey’s hottest team.

The subject of trade rumours a month ago, the NHL’s Third Star of the Month in March has stuck to the haters. 

Since getting a gold medal draped around his neck, the man has won 11 of 13 starts, posting a sparkling .919 save percentage. Not only have the Blues flipped from deadline seller to playoff contender, but they’ve also overtaken the struggling Wild for the first wild-card spot.

It’s impossible to view Binnington’s 4 Nations success as anything but a catalyst.

“It’s different from the Stanley Cup,” Binnington said that night in Boston. “That’s a long journey; this is shorter. This is different, but it’s just as powerful.”

So powerful, it has propelled the goalie and his club team — both of whom were questioned earlier this season — to a magical stretch run.

“That’s what sports are all about. As an athlete and a competitor, there are always going to be doubters. You’ve got to use that as motivation and find a way and believe in yourself that you’ll get the job done,” Binnington said.

“Just being around these guys the last few weeks, I feel like it’s elevated everyone’s game. It speaks of how proud we are to be Canadian hockey players and just finding a way to win with everything going on. You just have to stay with it.”

Craig Berube smiles when Binnington’s recent heater is brought up. No doubt, it whisks the coach back to the spring of 2019.

“Highly competitive guy,” Berube says. “And if there’s any doubters, he hears that. He knows that. He’s going to do everything in his power to turn it the other way. He’s got a lot of jam, and he’ll fight for everything. 

“He’s done it before, right? You never want to doubt him.”

6. Some interesting trends this season.

Power-play opportunities — which have been tracked since 1963-64 — have dried up to an all-time low. Teams are averaging just 2.71 man-advantages per game. 

“I think it’s a good thing, though. Maybe not for the power-play guys,” Scott Laughton chuckles. “I like playing 5-on-5. And I feel like some of the stick penalties get a little finicky, especially early on in a game, and then you gotta call it like that for the rest of the game. 

“I haven’t really noticed all that much of a change, but obviously 5-on-5 is better.”

The NHL’s officiating department maintains that the standard for blowing whistles hasn’t shifted, but penalty killer extraordinaire Chris Tanev has a theory. 

“Teams are really focused on being disciplined and not taking penalties because power plays are too good right now,” Tanev says.

Bingo. 

While PP opportunities have hit bottom, PP effectiveness is thriving.

On average, power plays are converting on 21.6 per cent of those dwindling chances. That’s the highest success rate since 1985-86(!), when goaltenders wore Sears catalogues for pads and oven mitts as blockers and young people knew what a Sears catalogue was.

Tanev prefers the rhythm and full-bench involvement of 5-on-5 action, which keeps all 18 skaters’ toes warm.

“The flow of the game is different. Our team can roll six D, for example. (As opposed to) playing a bunch in, like, half a period, and then you get a bunch of power-plays, and then you don’t play. There’s just more flow to the flow to the game,” says Tanev, who takes no issue with tucked whistles. 

“As long as they’re consistent, that’s the biggest thing. That’s all guys want.”

7. “In life, you have a chance,” Islanders head coach–slash–poet laureate Patrick Roy once said. “You could be an eagle or a duck.”

Anthony Duclair — the Isles’ $14-million off-season acquisition and the only notable free agent GM Lou Lamoriello signed — hasn’t exactly soared this season. (Though a bad groin could be a partial excuse for the streaky winger’s, uh, lame-duck status.)

“He was god-awful. He had a bad game. That’s why I didn’t play him a lot. And he’s lucky to be in the lineup. Sorry if I lose it on him right now, but that’s how I feel,” Roy sounded off this week, as New York’s wild-card hopes vanished.

“He’s not skating. He’s not competing. He’s not moving his feet. He’s not playing up to what we expect from him.”

After that blowup, Duclair asked for a break. Time off to reflect. Roy agreed. 

The 29-year-old has three more seasons remaining on the longest and richest contract of his career.

Yikes.

If Duclair was too injured to play, the Islanders should have put him on IR. Duclair should have busted his butt in rehab. If there is something unknown going on in his life, maybe he should’ve stepped aside earlier. 

If Duclair was good to go and this is purely an effort thing? Well… yikes.

In his final six games before quitting, all losses, Duclair mustered a total of six shots, failed to register a point, and went a minus-4. The former 30-goal, 58-point man has seven goals, a career-low four assists, and a career-worst minus-15 rating this season.

Sounds like Roy was in his right to scream for more eagle.

8. Exhibit A in the case that more general managers should make player-for-player hockey deals:

Floundering in L.A., a rejuvenated Pierre-Luc Dubois has gone from a 16-goal, 40-point, minus-9 centreman to a 20-goal threat while posting a career-high 63 points and plus-30 rating in Washington.

Seen as a bust in D.C., Darcy Kuemper has been critical to the Kings’ bid for home-ice advantage. The starting goalie hasn’t posted numbers this strong (27 wins, .920 save percentage) since he won a Cup in Colorado.

Both studs are headed to the post-season.

Good on Rob Blake and Chris Patrick for recognizing a poor fit early and making a swap that has benefitted both franchises.

Hopefully, this twin success of Dubois and Kuemper inspires more trades involving players with term. A higher salary cap and thin UFA crop should help.

9. I have a thought on Rogers (which owns this website) retaining the NHL rights for 12 more seasons beyond 2025-26, a deal that was negotiated in an exclusive and extended bargaining window, forbidding other bidders. (By the way, how very NHL is it to re-sign before testing free agency? Ha.)

The timing of the deal is interesting, seeing how it so closely precedes the owners and players’ upcoming negotiations on the next CBA.

Now the sides have a firm grasp on incoming income — a whopping double the price for Canadian broadcast rights — and some hard HRR numbers to work with when discussing the rising cap.

Get ready for a serious spike in the cap ceiling.

10. On the left side of the Atlantic, a Russian is poised to overtake a Canadian legend for the all-time goals record.

Meanwhile, on the right side of the ocean, Canadian Josh Leivo knocked a Russian legend, Sergei Mozyakin, out of the KHL record books.

Leivo, who hails from Innisfil, Ont., scored 49 goals in 62 regular-season games, besting Mozyakin’s 48.

Mozyakin is also the KHL’s all-time points leader and is regarded as one of the greatest hockey talents to never play in the NHL.

That Leivo — a 31-year-old journeyman who was drafted by the Leafs and skated for the Canucks, Flames, Hurricanes and Blues before finding work in Ufa — seized the single-season goal title is a testament to an incredible season. (Leivo also hit 80 points.)

But it’s also telling of the current talent pool in the KHL, which was once regarded as the second-best hockey league in the world.

Joining Leivo among the most impactful and productive skaters in the KHL post-season, which is already underway, are familiar North American names like Cedric Paquette, Scott Wilson, and Steven Kampfer.

Long after their value as NHL role players has passed, these guys are studs in the K.

11. Which regular defence pairs (minimum 500 minutes together) see the greatest offensive advantage at even strength?

Only nine duos see more than 60 per cent of goals enter the opposition’s net when they’re on the ice (via NaturalStatTrick.com). An interesting mix of shooters and stay-at-home types.

Tampa’s Ryan McDonagh and Erik Cernak lead the way at a 67.1 per cent goal share.

That duo is followed by Washington’s Matt Roy and Martin Fehervary (66.7 per cent); Winnipeg’s Dylan Samberg and Neal Pionk (66.2); Colorado’s Devon Toews and Cale Makar (64.5); Buffalo’s Rasmus Dahlin and Bowen Byram (62.7); New Jersey’s Jonas Siegenthaler and Johnathan Kovacevic (62.2); Florida’s Aaron Ekblad and Gustav Forsling (61); Toronto’s Tanev and Jake McCabe (60.9); and Washington’s Trevor van Riemsdyk and Jakob Chychrun (60.9).

12. Somewhere out there, John Tortorella is sitting in a quiet, dark room watching Penn State’s Nicholas Fascia trucking through Tristan Fraser’s ill-advised Michigan attempt on repeat and laughing maniacally…

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