Scout’s Analysis: Looking at picks, prospects Maple Leafs could offer in trade
The Toronto Maple Leafs want to be buyers at the trade deadline, but what do they have to offer in terms of prospects and draft picks? Scout Jason Bukala breaks down Toronto’s pipeline.
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The March 7 NHL trade deadline is quickly approaching and the process organizations go through to prepare for it is fluid and involves many factors.
For example, some key players left the 4 Nations Face-Off injured and will now miss an extended amount of time. Matthew Tkachuk is a great example of this, as the Florida Panthers are surely now preparing for the worst-case scenario and will miss him greatly. However, there could be a silver lining. The defending Stanley Cup champions currently project to have around $3.5 million in available deadline day cap space, but if Tkachuk is going to miss the rest of the regular season and they place his $9.5 million AAV on LTIR, their available space would rise significantly. And they are expecting him back at some point this season.
Scenarios like the one in Florida add more competition on the trade market, and other organizations that have limited assets (prospects or draft capital) or cap space will have an even more difficult time piecing together trades that improve their roster.
The Toronto Maple Leafs are a solid team with an eye on finally going on a deep playoff run. The current roster is pretty strong when everyone is healthy and playing to their identity, but it still could definitely use some upgrades. A middle-six centre who provides another layer of offence would be at the top of my wish list. It would also be ideal for them to add another defenceman who can match up against top six opponents, kill penalties and block shots.
Teams that are engaged in trade discussions with the Leafs are going to be evaluating what Toronto has to offer from their system. There might be an NHL roster player a team is interested in acquiring (and the Leafs may look to move one or two pro players to create more cap space), but the more likely primary assets Toronto will send away in a trade will be their top prospects and draft picks.
With that in mind, here’s a look at the prospects and draft capitals Toronto has to offer in a trade.
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PROSPECTS
The Leafs’ cupboards aren’t completely bare and they do have some developing players other teams will be interested in. But they don’t have the deepest collection of prospects overall and several other teams will have more variety to choose from.
Fraser Minten, C, 6-foot-2, 196 pounds
Age: 20
It’s my opinion that at this stage in Minten’s trajectory he could be the Toronto prospect teams covet the most when exploring a trade with the Leafs.
Minten has adjusted nicely to the pro game and provides reliable three zone detail and effort. He’s most likely a third-line NHL forward when his ceiling arrives and I don’t project him to produce more than secondary or depth offence. He has added a considerable amount of strength in the past year and shown he is capable of playing at NHL pace.
The last 10-game segment has been a bit of a struggle for the rookie forward, though. In that stretch he’s dressed for three NHL games and seven AHL games and hasn’t recorded a point. His minus-8 rating also stands out, but to be fair he hasn’t had a ton of puck luck or bounces go his way.
What’s important is that Minten will never let you down with his effort. He’s mature and will find a way to establish himself as a valuable third line NHL forward in time.
NHL Projection: Third line NHL forward. Checker. Bulk of his ice time will always come at even strength and the penalty kill.
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Easton Cowan, F, 5-foot-11, 185 pounds
Age: 19
When Cowan was originally drafted by Toronto 28th overall in 2023, I thought it was a reach to select him where they did. But Cowan quickly put my mind at ease when he attended his first Leafs training camp and went on to have a very productive 2023-24 season in the OHL with the London Knights. The dogged approach that he implemented down the stretch of his draft year continued into last season and resulted in Cowan being named the OHL MVP after scoring 34 goals and 62 assists in the regular season and an additional 10 goals and 24 assists in 18 playoff games.
His combination of quickness, relentless compete, and scoring touch projected very well for him and the Leafs organization.
Fast forward to today and I have to admit I’m more concerned than I have ever been about Cowan’s overall game. My recent viewings have left me with more questions than answers. Cowan has produced 20 goals and 25 assists in 36 OHL games this season. He’s hovered around a point per game in his last 10-game segment and averaged around 19 minutes of ice time. He’s deployed in all situations and definitely has the skill to take over shifts at the junior level.
The issue I have is that when Cowan isn’t producing offence his ‘B’ game has lacked the consistent effort and detail that got him drafted as high as he was. He hasn’t played with the same pace or tenacity in the games I’ve viewed. He’s a much better player than he has been portraying and might just need a reset in the off-season.
Cowan could still end up developing into a top-six NHL forward. Even if his ceiling is a third-line forward he has more natural offensive upside than Minten. It will be interesting to see if Toronto takes calls on Cowan and if he is included in a deal before the deadline.
NHL Projection: Middle-six NHL forward. Potential to produce better than secondary offence. Bulk of his ice time will come at even strength and second unit power play.
Nikita Grebenkin, F, 6-foot-2, 209 pounds
Age: 21
Grebenkin has generally played to his strengths offensively this season and proven he won’t back down from contact and traffic areas on the smaller ice in North America. He arrived in Toronto after producing 19G-22A in the KHL last season and has chipped in 9G-11A with the Toronto Marlies in the AHL. He’s dressed for seven games with the Leafs, but hasn’t registered a point.
Grebenkin is a nice prospect. He’s competitive, plays the game with some flair, and might produce some secondary offence in the NHL one day. However, the jury is still out on what his role will be and he needs at least another season in the AHL to further define himself.
Grebenkin averages around 15 minutes per game with the Marlies, all of which comes at even strength and the power play, which tells me he’s a player who has to play in the top half of the lineup at any level. There are only so many top-nine slots to go around, but he has time on his side and appears to be willing to put in the work so teams might have interest in Grebenkin.
NHL Projection: Third line NHL forward. Potential secondary offence. Second unit power play. Sneaky tenacity and physical push back.
Dennis Hildeby, G, 6-foot-7, 223 pounds
Age: 23
Goalies generally take longer to develop into full-time NHL puck stoppers compared to defencemen and forwards. Hildeby is in his second year at the AHL level and has played six NHL games for the Leafs this season. He’s still developing and getting used to the speed and shooting accuracy of the top players in the game. His 2.85 GAA in the AHL is worse than the 2.41 average he posted last year with the Marlies. Predictably his save percentage has also retreated to .895 from the .913 he finished with in 2023-24.
Hildeby is a giant in the net and hard to beat when he’s square to shooters. He doesn’t generally stray outside his posts with his lateral push and can play deep in his net due to his stature. His read and react can be a fraction off at times, though, which can lead Hildeby to mis-time his drop into the butterfly and not arrive on time when the play moves quickly from east to west in front of him.
He’s a work in progress, but does have NHL upside as a potential backup. He needs more time and a new contract this off-season. Hildeby is a pending RFA whose qualifying offer is set at $813,750.
NHL Projection: NHL backup goalie. 2A/2B. Play 25-30 NHL games per season.
Artur Akhtyamov, G, 6-foot-2, 170 pounds
Age: 23
The Leafs could be dealing from a position of relative strength with their goaltending prospects. Both Hildeby and Akhtyamov have NHL upside.
Akhtyamov is an athletic goalie with good size and his approach to stopping pucks is completely different than Hildeby’s. Akhtyamov is active in his net. He relies on making himself as wide as possible when down in the butterfly and tracks plays from the top of his crease. He’s had a solid season with the Marlies, posting a 2.51 GAA and .911 save percentage.
Akhtyamov has one more season remaining on his entry-level contract. Like Hildeby, he will also need more time to develop before being summoned to the NHL full-time, but Akhtyamov has the kind of upside a team could be interested in as an extra piece in a trade deadline transaction.
NHL Projection: NHL backup goalie.
DRAFT CAPITAL
The Leafs’ draft board isn’t flush over the next three seasons, but it’s also not totally empty either. The lack of a first-round pick in this draft cycle could be problematic, but my gut tells me teams will be interested in first-round selections in 2026 or 2027 this trade deadline. Like every year, the 2025 draft has some solid prospects, but I don’t feel this cycle has the same depth as recent years. So that means teams that already own a first-round pick this year might be more interested in acquiring extra capital for the future and hoping for more prospect depth in those years.
CONCLUSION
I didn’t include defenceman Topi Niemela or forward Roni Hirvonen in my analysis.
• Niemela hasn’t turned the corner defensively for me and his offence (0G-17A) doesn’t move the needle enough.
• Hirvonen competes hard, but he’s a 5-foot-10, 179-pound secondary scorer (8G-10A) at the AHL level. He doesn’t appear destined for even a depth NHL role at this stage of his career.
• Noah Chadwick, a 6-foot-4, 207-pound right shot defenceman is having a very strong year in the WHL. He’s the captain of a very good Lethbridge Hurricanes team, logs around 25 minutes per game in all situations, and has contributed 11G-35A. He’s a two-way NHL defenceman on projection who will turn pro after this year. Teams could have interest in Chadwick and I understand why. He’s worked hard to add strength and improve his execution with the puck as he’s matured in the WHL.
• The Leafs want to be buyers at the trade deadline, so the purpose of this article was to take stock of what they’d have to offer teams as far as prospects and draft capital go. Sellers often target those kinds of assets. The reality is Toronto has some nice players on the horizon, but not a ton of them. They might be asked to include both Minten and Cowan plus picks in the same trade to acquire the middle-six forward they pine for, assuming they also find a way to make the cap dollars work in the transaction.
