Scout’s Analysis: What Avalanche, Sharks get in goalie swap
After making one goalie swap two weeks ago, the Avalanche pulled off another one on Monday to give themselves a completely new look at the position. Scout Jason Bukala breaks down both sides of Monday’s Colorado-San Jose trade.
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Exactly two months ago, the Colorado Avalanche opened their season with a road game against the Vegas Golden Knights. The Avalanche outshot their opponents 32-21 in the season opener, but dropped the game by an 8-4 decision — Alexandar Georgiev started the game, but was pulled after the second period having allowed five goals on 16 shots. His replacement, Justus Annunen, allowed two goals on four shots in 15:16 of action.
Little did we know how indicative that game was for what would happen to the Avs in the following weeks, as the team streaked through October — beginning with a four-game losing streak, followed by a five-game winning streak, and ending with a three-game losing streak.
Injuries were partly to blame for Colorado’s cold beginning to 2024-25, but the most obvious area of weakness was in net. The Georgiev-Annunen combo ranked at the bottom of the league in goals saved above expected, and while the team in front of them had room to improve in terms of high-danger chances allowed, it was clear the netminding would need to be addressed by management during the season if Colorado was going to be a serious Cup threat in 2025.
On Nov. 30, Colorado traded Annunen to Nashville and acquired veteran backup Scott Wedgewood to replace him. Wedgewood has started two of the four games since then, and replaced Georgiev just 12 minutes into another game against the Sabres after the latter allowed four first-period goals. Colorado overcame a 4-0 deficit to win that game 5-4.
So far, Wedgewood is 2-1-0 with a .951 save percentage and 1.44 GAA with the Avalanche.
On Monday, Colorado completed its cleaning out of the goaltending position, sending Georgiev to San Jose in a package deal for 28-year-old Mackenzie Blackwood. Also included in the deal to San Jose was Nikolai Kovalenko, who started the season as an outside-shot Calder candidate since he had the opportunity for a top-six role in Colorado that never stuck. Kovalenko has four goals and eight points in 28 games.
Blackwood has spent this season behind San Jose’s weak defence, a unit that allows the second-most shots against per game and a ton of high-quality looks. Nevertheless, his .910 save percentage shines and he’s well on the positive side of the ledger in goals saved above expected. Once seen as the future of New Jersey’s net before his play fell off through the pandemic seasons, partly due to injury, Blackwood has had somewhat of a re-emergence so far this season, a contract year with UFA status on the horizon.
It’s not often a team completely changes over its entire goaltending setup just two months into the season, but the Avalanche had to nip this problem in the bud. Now 6-4-0 in their past 10 and back up over Calgary into the West’s second wild-card spot, the Avalanche seem to have recovered from the bumpy start. But there is still tons of ground to make up to get back inside the top three of a competitive Central Division.
These two goalie moves were integral for the Avs to get back on their feet in the long run. For more on Monday’s four-player trade and Colorado’s second goalie swap, we turn to our scout Jason Bukala.
SCOUT’S ANALYSIS
The Colorado Avalanche made a curious trade with the San Jose Sharks on Monday afternoon. On the surface, it appears to address a need for the Avs. Their goaltending has been inconsistent over the past couple of years, so flipping Georgiev for the much-improved Blackwood will attract the bulk of attention in this trade.
But when you zoom out and look at the trade as a whole, I’m of the opinion San Jose has a real chance to come out on the winning end of this deal in time.
Here’s my player-by-player breakdown and potential upside for their new clubs.
To Colorado: Mackenzie Blackwood, Givani Smith
Blackwood hasn’t posted a goals-against average below 3.00, or save percentage over .905 since the 2019-20 season when he was stopping pucks for the New Jersey Devils.
The Sharks average the most shots against per game in the NHL (32.8) and by extension give up a ton of high-danger scoring chances. Blackwood had been surging in his past 11 starts, posting an impressive 2.63 GAA and .920 SV% over the stretch.
Here’s a look at the volume of shots Blackwood faced in this 11-game segment playing for San Jose:
As a comparison, here’s a look at the volume of shots the Avalanche gave up in Georgiev’s past 11 starts. It may come as a surprise that Georgiev’s stats are very similar to Blackwood’s in the segment, with a 2.65 GAA and .902 save percentage over that time.
The Avs obviously feel Blackwood’s trajectory is more trustworthy than Georgiev’s at this stage of the season. Colorado is in win-now mode and attempting to position itself for a long playoff run in the spring. Along with the recent trade for Wedgewood, the Avs have completely reset their goaltending tandem.
Colorado also got Givani Smith, a big body (6-foot-2, 216 pounds) who was being used sparingly in San Jose. I don’t expect Smith to move the needle a great deal in Colorado. He’s more likely to end up on the waiver wire and possibly in the minors, which will open up some additional cap savings for the Avs. In the games Smith did play for San Jose this season he averaged just over six minutes of ice time.
To San Jose: Alexander Georgiev, Nikolai Kovalenko
Georgiev is what he is at this point, having struggled to tend the net as the No. 1 on a contending team and, at 28 years old, on track to be a UFA next summer.
Where the Sharks have potential to win this trade is with the acquisition of forward Kovalenko. The 25-year-old will be a restricted free agent next summer and is an NHL rookie with a proven track record of producing offence at the KHL level in Russia. I recognize the way the game is played in the KHL doesn’t exactly translate to the NHL, but Kovalenko produced an impressive 32G-57A in his last 98GP in Russia.
Like most Russian scorers who arrive in the NHL, Kovalenko needs to keep his feet moving in all three zones and his read/react has to be quicker in the defensive zone. He’s a stocky 5-foot-10, 197 pounds and has a very good stick. Pucks are on and off his blade quickly in scoring areas and he has the physical strength to leverage around his opponent’s net – hunting rebounds and tips in the process.
It was difficult for Kovalenko to find a regular role in the top half of Colorado’s lineup. He averaged only 12 minutes of ice time and produced 4G-4A. The Avs have some of the top forwards in the world – let alone the NHL – but Kovalenko should get more of an opportunity in a San Jose lineup that includes inspiring youngsters Macklin Celebrini and Will Smith.
Draft Capital Update
Here’s what the draft board looks like for both teams following the trade on Monday:
The Avs have never been shy about sacrificing draft picks for potential playoff success. What surprises me is the fact the Sharks, especially given the state of their rebuild, aren’t overflowing with draft capital but they are positioned well in the top two rounds of the next three drafts.
