Scout’s Analysis: What everyone gets in the Rantanen-Necas blockbuster

Where does Mikko Rantanen fit in among the top forwards in the game today?

Connor McDavid is the cream of the crop, while Rantanen’s now-former teammate and centre Nathan MacKinnon is the reigning Hart Trophy winner after a 140-point season.

Auston Matthews is perhaps the best natural goal scorer these days after a 69-goal 2023-24. Leon Draisaitl, meantime, has stacked incredible playoff performances and is making his own Hart Trophy case this season. Nikita Kucherov’s 144-point campaign a year ago is the second-most productive single season of the cap era, behind McDavid, and he has a Hart and two Art Ross trophies to his name. David Pastrnak is the heartbeat of Boston’s offence, while Sidney Crosby still carries an aging Penguins lineup with more than a point per game output.

All of those players ranked ahead of Rantanen in our pre-season top 50 NHL players list, although the former Av did crack the top 10. That means he finished ahead of other superstars Aleksander Barkov, Brayden Point and Jack Hughes. Kirill Kaprizov, No. 16 on our list, is making a case for a higher ranking next time as the engine of the surprising Minnesota Wild.

None of those players have been traded, and it’s difficult to imagine any of them being moved any time soon. That’s the difference with Rantanen, the centrepiece of a memorable Friday-night blockbuster between three teams that sent Martin Necas and Taylor Hall to Carolina.

Colorado also picked up Jack Drury in the deal, while the Chicago Blackhawks acted as the broker by retaining half of Rantanen’s cap hit ($4.625 million) to pick up a third-round pick.

But for now, the Avalanche and Hurricanes are at the centre of this blockbuster.

As reported by Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman overnight, this was a numbers game for the Avalanche, who were looking at the possibility of having to pay Rantanen more than MacKinnon’s $12.6-million cap figure on an extension this year. This is the dynamic we’ll see more of with the salary cap set to shoot up next season and further in the years to come — after years of a nearly flat cap, the post-pandemic financials are going to completely reset the market for everyone.

For Rantanen and the Avs’ internal cap structure, that proved to be a bridge too far, so, rather than see him leave for nothing in the summer, Colorado pounced on a deal now.

Meantime, in Nick Kypreos’ 2.0 trade board, he wrote that Tom Dundon might be looking to open the wallet on an extension and take a swing at acquiring a true superstar this season, while noting that a player such as Necas might be the price he has to pay in trade. Nailed it.

Now the Hurricanes will be the ones trying to re-sign Rantanen, and Draisaitl’s $14-million AAV that kicks in next season will be an interesting comparable. While both of those players are great in their own right, they played in the shadow of a bigger star. Rantanen will go off on his own and while the Canes are the No. 5-ranked offence in the league, their lack of game-breaking scorers has often hurt them in the playoffs and perhaps held them back from going all the way. Rantanen will now have the opportunity to be that headliner and perhaps reframe how we see him fitting among the league’s elite.

In return, the main piece Colorado picks up is Necas, who almost had a falling out with the Hurricanes last season and never did get to a long-term extension with the team. With one more season left on his deal paying $6.5 million, the Avalanche will have time to see how he fits in with MacKinnon and what kind of a replacement he could be for Rantanen. Necas is in the middle of a career season and at a pivotal point in his career.

Importantly, the Avalanche also opened up a little more cap space with Miles Wood, Tucker Poolman and Gabriel Landeskog all still on LTIR.

With more of a breakdown on the players involved in the trade, we go to our scout Jason Bukala.

SCOUT’S ANALYSIS

The Hurricanes have put everyone on notice that they are aggressively trying to position themselves for a long playoff run and potential Stanley Cup. 

Here’s my breakdown of the massive three-way trade between the Avalanche, Blackhawks and Hurricanes from a scouting perspective:

To Carolina: Mikko Rantanen, Taylor Hall

Rantanen is an elite NHL scorer. He’s a house of man (six-foot-four, 215 pounds) who can be described as equal parts shooter and distributor. Most of his assists come off the cycle or by outmuscling opponents to extend plays in the trenches. He isn’t a massive threat off the rush, though.

Rantanen complemented MacKinnon, who usually transported the puck between the blue lines with his speed on offence, and Rantanen would read how the play was developing before finding open space to make himself available to receive pucks and rip them on net. 

Rantanen averaged over 23 minutes of ice time in his last 10 games. All of his ice time comes at even strength and the power play. He’s on pace for his third straight season of producing over 100 points, with 35 goals and 39 assists this season, including eight goals and 11 assists on the power play. Rantanen also has five game-winning goals this season. 

Despite his stature, Rantanen isn’t a physically punishing player. He’s not the kind of power forward who hunts down big hits, or runs over opponents in open ice. He’s been credited with only 28 hits and 32 shot blocks this season. 

The Hurricanes are the fifth-highest scoring team in the NHL (3.37 goals per game average), but their power play sits in the middle of the pack (17th, at 21.2 per cent). Adding a player like Rantanen will surely lead to even more offence, and boost the power play. 

If you are one of the people who judge trades by who got the best player, the Hurricanes win this move in a landslide. They’ve just acquired one of the top forwards in the entire league.

Meanwhile, Hall adds a layer of secondary scoring to the Hurricanes’ forward group. He averaged 0.5 points per game in Chicago. Hall still has enough gas left in the tank to be a threat off the rush. He isn’t the burner he was when he first entered the league, but opponents have to respect when he’s transporting the puck and be aware of him joining as an extra layer in transition.

His defensive detail ranges. He needs to have more buy-in off the puck in all three zones to earn the trust of the Canes coaching staff. The team acquired him to add more offence, but not at the cost of sacrificing defensive detail. Hall averaged 15 minutes of ice time in Chicago which, like Rantanen, all came at even strength and on the power play.

To Colorado: Martin Necas, Jack Drury

Necas got off to a hot start this season before hitting a dry spell through December and into the beginning of January. He’s rebounded nicely in his last 10 games, producing one goal and eight assists while averaging just shy of 17 minutes of ice per game. Like Rantanen and Hall, all of Necas’s ice time comes at even strength and the power play. 

Necas is an energetic forward. He’s always in motion, plays the game fast, and has to be respected for his skill when the puck is on his stick through the neutral zone. He’s completely different than Rantanen in terms of his approach in the offensive zone. He will work off the cycle, but he leans distributor more than shooter. 

Necas is on track for a career year in points. He arrives in Colorado having produced 16 goals and 39 assists this season and was Carolina’s leading scorer. He should easily surpass his top season (71 points) from 2022-23.

The headliner of the deal is certainly Rantanen, as the Avs decided to move out one of the elite forwards in the NHL, but in return they are getting a top-six forward who’s still only 26 years old.

Drury can provide middle-six minutes for the Avalanche, which they sorely need. He’s only 24 years old and comes with potential secondary scoring upside. He averaged only 13 minutes per game in Carolina, but was deployed in all situations.

Drury is a very competitive player who can push the pace and isn’t shy in traffic. He leans shooter more than natural playmaker and has enough skill to, on occasion, slot into a second-line role. Drury is capable of logging more ice time. It will be interesting to monitor how Colorado deploys Drury because he can be used in a variety of roles. 

Draft Capital

Colorado’s draft board was relatively bare for 2025. Adding the second-round (2025) and fourth-round (2026) picks provides the Avs with an opportunity to add to their prospect pool or include the slots in future trades with the cap space they’ve opened up. 

Here’s what Colorado’s draft board looks like after the trade:

Chicago moves on from Hall and his expiring $6-million contract, but absorbs 50 per cent of Rantanen’s expiring $9.25-million deal to acquire a third-round pick from Carolina in the transaction. It’s an expensive way of acquiring a draft pick while also giving cap space to your trading partner in a deal. 

Here’s a look at the Hawks’ draft board after the trade:

Closing Thoughts

This trade will continue to be dissected in the coming weeks and months. 

• Rantanen is a pending unrestricted free agent. His next contract is likely to land around $12.5 million AAV, or more. I would be surprised if the Hurricanes haven’t already begun preliminary discussions with Rantanen and his representatives.

• The Avalanche were backed into a corner and decided they needed to get worthwhile return for Rantanen instead of watching him walk out the door for nothing in the off-season. On balance, they did pretty well. They are a different team this morning, but adding Necas and Drury provided cost certainty and added depth in their lineup. 

• Chicago was a place holder that decided it could afford to spend nearly $5 million to acquire a third-round pick in the upcoming draft. Its rebuild strategy continues, but needs to start to turn a corner sooner than later. 

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