Scout’s Analysis: Why the Blues traded for defenceman Cam Fowler
You may ask: why is a “rebuilding” team like the Blues adding a 33-year-old defenceman who has another year left on his contract? Rory Boylen and Jason Bukala give their thoughts on the Ducks sending Cam Fowler to St. Louis.
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In the build-up to the NHL roster freeze that opens on December 20, a flurry of trade action has been blowing through the league in recent weeks, and another notable player was moved on Saturday.
Long-time Anaheim Ducks defenceman Cam Fowler — one of the players to watch on Nick Kypreos’ recently released trade list — was sent packing to St. Louis along with a future fourth-round pick for undrafted blueliner Jeremie Biakabutuka and a future second-round pick.
As the Blues look to hang around the wild card picture in the Western Conference, GM Doug Armstrong noted the reason for exploring this trade was to take some of the load off the top four defencemen on the team — Colton Parayko, Justin Faulk, Ryan Suter and Philip Broberg are all averaging over 21 minutes per game, while Nick Leddy hasn’t played since mid-October due to injury and recently experienced a setback.
It didn’t take long for Fowler to join his new team either. He was in their lineup for Saturday night’s 2-1 OT loss in Dallas and played 17:57 on the second pair. His minutes are sure to rise from here.
You may ask: why is a “rebuilding” team like the Blues adding a 33-year-old defenceman who has another year left on his contract?
St. Louis isn’t looking to race to the bottom of the standings for an early draft pick. Rather, Armstrong’s attempting to keep a certain competitiveness with his group — if there’s one thing we’re seeing from rebuilds in places such as Ottawa and Buffalo that have bottomed out, sometimes the hardest thing for a franchise to do is to work out of a cycle of losing and extra low expectations.
“What we’re trying to do is stay competitive, give these guys the environment where they can grow and not rush our younger players like a (Dalibor) Dvorsky, or a (Theo) Lindtein, or a (Otto) Stenberg and some of these guys we’re building around,” Armstrong said after the trade. “We’re trying to do something and you draft those guys, but it doesn’t make them ready faster. They’re going to be ready in three or four years after drafting them and we’re a year and a half into that now.
“I understand people say ‘no, no go right to the bottom,’ but that’s not how we’re built, and that’s not something we believe is good for our organization. Seven, eight, nine years in the bottom two or three or four in the league is difficult, and I think we can try and find a different way to do that.”
The Blues are indeed in what can better be described as a “re-tool on the fly.” Jordan Kyrou and Robert Thomas are team scoring leaders in their mid-20s, while 22-year-old Jake Neighbours is trying to build off a 27-goal season a year ago. Off-season offer sheet pickups Broberg and Dylan Holloway have become key contributors, and even 24-year-old backup goalie Joel Hofer has shown flashes.
Fowler, then, is something of a stabilizing force for their blue line to cover this season and next. Some salary was retained by Anaheim as well, so Fowler comes at a discounted $4 million rate against St. Louis’ cap — an entirely manageable number.
In Anaheim, in the meantime, clearing out Fowler brings them a bit better draft capital but primarily opens the door of opportunity for the younger left-shot defencemen to play more games, have more minutes, and get more experience of their own. Fowler’s presence was beginning to interfere with Anaheim’s plans for the left-shooting blueliners, who will be important parts of this team when it does come out of its ground-up rebuild.
With more on Saturday’s move, we turn to our scout Jason Bukala.
SCOUT’S ANALYSIS
It’s been an interesting couple of weeks in Anaheim. The Ducks recently acquired veteran defenceman Jacob Trouba from the New York Rangers and have now traded their longest-tenured player, defenceman Cam Fowler, away to the St. Louis Blues.
Here’s my scouting breakdown from the trade between the Blues and Ducks:
What the Blues get in Cam Fowler
Fowler was averaging 21 minutes a night for the Ducks this season, down from 24:30 last year. He’s only skated in 17 games after missing time with injury, but his role on the power play had diminished and his point production dipped as a result. Fowler only produced four assists this season for the Ducks, compared to his previous two seasons combined (15G-72A). The Blues will be banking on Fowler chipping in offensively and assisting to improve their 26th-ranked power play (16.9 per cent).
Critics of this trade will be quick to judge Fowler’s defensive stats. They aren’t pretty to look at (minus-66 in his last 180 games with Anaheim), but the Ducks are in the middle of a complete rebuild, and Fowler never had a soft match-up defensively. When Anaheim was in Toronto this past Thursday, Fowler was tasked with checking the Leafs’ top six forwards for every shift. In my opinion, his defensive metrics are misleading.
The NHL game has never been played faster than it is today. Fowler continues to display high-end skating ability. He plays fast and has the skill set to transition pucks quickly and effectively. He can push the play up ice with the puck on his stick or join the rush as an extra layer of support. I don’t feel his pace has fallen off despite his age (33).
With the Ducks retaining $2.5 million of Fowler’s contract, the Blues get a very serviceable veteran defenceman at an affordable price. Fowler’s cap hit lands at $4 million for the Blues, which isn’t bad for a player who could end up quarterbacking one of their power play units and skate over 21 minutes per game.
St. Louis is only scoring 2.58 goals per game on average, rankings 27th in the league. If they want to remain relevant in the playoff race (the Blues are currently four points out of a wild card position), they need to find a way to produce more offence.
Adding Fowler has the potential to create better results for the group.
Anaheim leaning more into their youth after trading Fowler
The Ducks are clearly challenging their young core of defencemen to increase their roles and gain valuable experience. Player development at the NHL level, especially with defencemen, is a delicate process. It’s critical to stay the course and not undermine the qualities different players present by attempting to change out what they do well.
Anaheim has some very nice pieces to build around on their back end.
Jackson LaCombe and Pavel Mintyukov project as well-rounded two-way defencemen. Olen Zellweger projects as more of a transitional defenceman who will quarterback the Ducks’ power play for years to come.
All of them can provide varying degrees of offence, and each of them shoots left — with Fowler (also a left shot) out of the picture, more opportunity abounds.
Anaheim also acquired the rights to 6-foot-4, 203-pound right-shot defenceman Jeremie Biakabutuka, a 22-year-old who’s playing in the ECHL for the Florida Everblades. I broke down some tape on Biakabutuka and discovered a player who isn’t shy about joining the rush and directing pucks on net. His size is a plus, but his agility defending against speed is average. There are also times when he needs to move the puck quicker from his defensive zone. I appreciate his effort. He competes, but his ceiling appears to be that of a potential minor-league depth prospect who might spend time in the AHL.
