Senators slipping in playoff race with losses to key opponents

Ottawa — Sometimes, the difference between making or missing the playoffs isn’t just about how many wins but who those wins are against. 

As the Senators have been vaulting themselves into a playoff spot, their few losses have a familiar theme. They’ve lost to teams they are battling against in the playoff race. This week, they had a chance to secure themselves as a top-three team in the Atlantic division. Instead, in a rare regular season back-to-back against Tampa Bay, they fell 4-3 and 5-1 and lost that spot to the Lightning. That dropped them into the first wild-card spot.

Since Jan. 7, the Senators are 10-5-2. Great, right? Well, kind of. 

Of their five regulation losses, four were against the Boston Bruins, New York Rangers and Lightning (x2), who they were within four points of at the time. Do the math, and if the Senators had flipped those games or even got a point in them, they’d be in a more advantageous spot in the standings than sitting in the first wild-card spot. 

Throw in an overtime loss to the now red-hot Detroit Red Wings, and the Senators are 2-4-1 against teams that were within four points of the Senators at the time of the matchup in the standings since Jan. 7. Trade the Sens’ wins over teams like Washington and Minnesota for wins against teams they are actually competing against and the playoff picture would look entirely different.

It could be even worse if it weren’t for their comeback of the season against Boston at home on Jan. 18, when they scored two goals in the last three minutes and then a shootout winner that saved them from another calamity.

Well, have they just gotten bad bounces? In those five losses, their opponents had more expected goals than them, according to MoneyPuck. The losses were deserved.

In both games with Tampa Bay, their stars excelled, with Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman and Andrei Vasilevskiy combining for six points, and yes, there was a Vasilevskiy assist. Meanwhile, Tim Stutzle and Brady Tkachuk combined for two points. Simply put, Tampa’s stars rose to the challenge, but Ottawa’s didn’t. 

One caveat: the Senators were without their injured second and third-line centres in Josh Norris and Shane Pinto for the majority of both games. The injury bug wasn’t only eyeing Ottawa, though, as Tampa Bay missed second-line centre Anthony Cirelli, who made Team Canada for the Four Nations. Injuries shouldn’t be an excuse. 

“Try to win the next game, plain and simple,” said head coach Travis Green after Thursday’s loss. “Not worried about the lineup, who’s not here. We’re worried about who is here.”

However, as far as we know, someone was absent from the ice not due to injury.  Green decided to start backup Anton Forsberg over Linus Ullmark. It was a surprising decision. Until the end of the regular season, every game the Senators play against a team they are sparring against for a playoff berth is the “biggest game in eight years”. Sad but true.

Regardless, Green explained his decision to play his backup in an enormous game as easing Ullmark back from injury. “I think that’s a big part of it,” he said, “We want to get him two of these games.”

“Good chance he’ll play the next one.”

 Why not play Ullmark against Tampa Bay, who you are competing against for an Atlantic Division spot?

For context, Forsberg had won his previous three games while posting a .923 save percentage. Nevertheless, Ullmark was good, stopping 34 of 37 against Tampa Bay in his return on Tuesday while saving 1.02 goals above expected. The Senators have committed to Ullmark with a four-year extension, paying over $8.25 million a season. Play your best players. 

Tampa Bay didn’t give Vasilevskiy a break: he was outstanding on Thursday.

After Ottawa tied it 1-1 in the second on Thursday, Jake Sanderson rushed out of the penalty box onto a two-on-one, sliding the puck over to Matthew Highmore, who was robbed by Vasilevskiy. Seconds later, Brandon Hagel found himself alone on Forsberg and slid the puck five-hole. It was the same move that Filip Forsberg used on Anton Forsberg on Monday. In no way was Forsberg to blame for the loss on Thursday, but he wasn’t as good as Vasilevskiy. 

If Ullmark needs to be eased due to recovering from an injury, then why not rest him and keep up Leevi Merilainen, who has better numbers than Forsberg?  Merilainen had an impressive .925 save percentage while he was up with the Senators and might be the first goaltender to be sent down to the AHL immediately after earning a shutout. Make it make sense. The Senators didn’t need to rush Ullmark back if he wasn’t 100 per cent healthy. It’s hard to gauge whether it’s Ullmark, the coach or management who is making these decisions or a combination of all three.

The Senators’ communication about Ullmark’s health has never been very clear this season. When he was injured, his status went from day to day to out for “a while”. Now we are left wondering whether he is healthy or not and why he wasn’t playing in the biggest game of the season. Clarity is needed. On the surface, it isn’t computing.

Time for a Travis Hamonic discussion

By all accounts, Travis Hamonic is a well-liked teammate. Speak to Jake Sanderson, and he will rave about Hamonic. However, the decision by the past management regime and now this one to routinely play him over other players continues to draw questions. Due to injuries to Artem Zub and Nick Jensen, Hamonic has been a mainstay for the Senators’ blueline this season. However, the two regular pairings he’s had this season with Jake Sanderson and Tyler Kleven have been two of Ottawa’s worst, analytically.

According to Natural Stat Trick at five-on-five

Without Hamonic, both Sanderson and Kleven elevated their play. Sanderson struggled earlier in the season while playing with Hamonic. When Zub came back, all of a sudden, Sanderson was thriving again. Sanderson won the third star of the week in the NHL last week while playing with Zub.

According to Natural Stat Trick at five-on-five

Against Tampa Bay on Tuesday, both Kleven and Hamonic lost battles behind the net, leading to Luke Glendening tying the game 1-1. Later, the duo miscommunicated, leading Brandon Hagel to walk in to rip a goal that gave Tampa a 3-2 lead that eventually was the difference in the game. Two crushing goals to allow. 

On Thursday, Green reinserted Mantipalo, who had been steady with Kleven as the seventh defenceman, going eleven forwards and seven defenceman likely due to salary cap constraints. Mantipalo is rugged, steady and calm on the puck. On Thursday, he was not very noticeable but in a good way. Meanwhile, to Hamonic’s credit he was fine, but the Senators outshot Tampa Bay with Mantipalo on the ice 10 to eight and were outshot 11 to 14 with Hamonic on the ice at five-on-five, according to Natural StatTrick. 

There is obviously some nuance; Hamonic played more and drew harder matchups, which Green, his coach, has mentioned plenty of times. Yet, according to Evolving Hockey, Hamonic has the ninth-worst wins above replacement (WAR) of 797 players this season. Hamonic has been a great soldier for the Senators and deserves credit for his tutelage and leadership. But it’s time to let others play. 

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