Senators Trade Deadline Preview: Surprisingly (sort of) in buyers’ mode
Wait, are the Ottawa Senators actually buyers heading toward this year’s NHL trade deadline? Alex Adams breaks down why that very much could be the case.
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OTTAWA — The Ottawa Senators are in a playoff race at the trade deadline? What’s this?
Ottawa is finally in a spot where selling at the deadline is not an option. But is buying an option?
Yes and no. Let me explain.
Ahead of the March 7 deadline, general manager Steve Staios has little cap space to play with, very few prospects and picks. Most notably, he does not have a first-round pick either this season or next, due to the NHL’s taking away a first-round pick as punishment for former general manager Pierre Dorion botching an Evgeni Dadonov trade in 2021. Never say never, but do not expect a first-round pick to be traded by the Senators this week.
From what I’m hearing, Ottawa is comfortable with its defence with the emergence of Nikolas Matinpalo and happy with its goaltending, with Leevi Merilainen bursting onto the scene earlier this season. However, Tyler Kleven’s recent injury to his midsection, which is a week-to-week ailment, might change Staios’ calculus.
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Watch Hockey Central Trade Deadline on Sportsnet
Sportsnet’s hockey news breakers, analysts and reporters will have coast-to-coast coverage of all the moves made ahead of this season’s NHL trade deadline. Full coverage on March 7 begins at 10 a.m. ET/7 a.m. PT on Sportsnet and Sportsnet+.
Despite Kleven’s injury, the area to zoom in on in advance of deadline day will be the Senators’ attempt to acquire a middle-six forward. It is no secret that Ottawa has struggled to score this season, with the 21st-best offence. A modest acquisition of a forward to provide some bite and juice could have a significant effect on the Senators’ ability to squeak into the playoffs.
It’s no how but how many more goals you score than your opponent.
Projected deadline-day cap space: $850,000, according to Puck Pedia
Contracts: 47/50
Cap space committed to 2024-25: 13 players for $77,905,714
DRAFT PICKS
NEEDS
Scoring and speed. If only it was that simple to acquire.
Ottawa has struggled to finish this season; it ranks dead-last in five-on-five shooting percentage in the NHL. If the Senators’ shooting percentage even takes a marginal jump, that could be the difference between winning 3-2 or losing 2-1. Meanwhile, outside of Tim Stutzle, Josh Norris and Shane Pinto, most of the Senators forwards are average to slow. Speeds kills and the Senators need some of it. For all of Brady Tkachuk‘s strengths, speed isn’t one of them. Adding a forward who can bring some speed and finishing touch could make a world of difference.
POTENTIAL TARGETS
Players who could be available and fit Ottawa’s price range and cap space:
Ryan Donato, C/LW, Blackhawks
Stats: 22 goals, 45 points
Cap hit: $2 million, expiring contract
On the recent 32 Thoughts podcast, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman said that he believed Ottawa had interest in Donato. Donato seems like the most ideal and perfect fit for Ottawa. He scores and is cheap. Donato has 21 goals on a lowly Chicago Blackhawks team, while only making $2 million on an expiring contract, which is a cap hit Ottawa can afford. A second-round pick could fetch Donato, who brings bite and speed with his scoring ability. A minor reason for concern might be that his 16 per cent shooting percentage isn’t sustainable and how will he mesh as a natural centre on the wing. Nevertheless, if Ottawa can pry Donato out of Chicago, it could be the exact right boost the team needs.
Tommy Novak, LW, Predators
Stats: 12 goals, 21 points
AAV: $3.5 million until 2027
It’s been a miserable season in Nashville and that’s affected everyone, including Novak. However, Novak still has 12 goals this season after scoring 17 and 18 in the previous two seasons, which earned him a three-year contract with a $3.5-million cap hit. Novak is an excellent forechecker with good speed and would bring Ottawa a finisher. He could be a great player to place with Stutzle. Ottawa might need to trade a depth player in the deal to make it happen, but it likely wouldn’t cost more than a second-round pick. Novak would be a short-term and long-term play for Ottawa.
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Real Kyper’s Trade Board
Hockey Insider Nick Kypreos shares the latest intel on players who could be on the move ahead of the March 7 trade deadline.
Rickard Rakell, RW, Penguins
Stats: 28 goals, 52 points
AAV: $5 million until 2028
Staios should consider putting real assets on the table for Rakell, in order to improve his team for the present and future. A consistent 20-goal scorer, Rakell has 30 goals in him as well, a total he will almost assuredly achieve again this season. His speed and ability to finish chances would make him the ideal play-finishing right winger Stutzle has needed. He’s only 31 and, despite his defensive limitations, he could give Ottawa goals in bunches. The price might be a sticking point. However, if there is a deal to make, Ottawa should pounce. His cap hit isn’t too onerous, so it would likely require trading a player like David Perron, who has a 15-team no-trade list. Rakell, like Jared McCann (who might be available), represents the ideal move to win now that is also for the future. You don’t need to always wait until the off-season to make a bold move.
Luke Kunin, C, Sharks
Stats: 11 goals, 18 points
AAV: $2.75 million, expiring contract
Kunin is fast with some scoring touch and is an effective penalty killer. Ottawa has struggled on the penalty kill, which is 19th at a 77.14 conversion rate, despite Ottawa scoring the fourth-most short-handed goals this season. Kunin could provide a boost in the penalty-killing department. Staios has made some shrewd moves in the past, like acquiring Nick Jensen who fit Ottawa even though he isn’t the most talented player. Kunin might not be a high-profile name but could fit in seamlessly with Ottawa. His inexpensive contract and likely low price to acquire him would make him an affordable and solid deadline addition.
Matt Grzelcyk, D, Penguins
Stats: 1 goal, 30 points
AAV: $2.75 million, expiring contract
If Staios is worried about Kleven’s injury and no clear replacement on the left side waiting in Belleville, then Grzelcyk could be a great solution on the bottom pair. From what I’m hearing, Staios is pretty content with his forward group when healthy, and with Tkachuk, Norris and Pinto returning on Saturday, offence may no longer be a concern. Grzelcyk also brings some offensive juice for a backend that struggles to create offence. The Senators are 31st with 19 goals by defencemen and tied for 24th with 108 points by defencemen. Grzelcyk has been an analytics darling before getting to Pittsburgh and would be great in a third-pairing role.
Other good fits: Brandon Tanev, Jake Evans, Carson Soucy, Joel Armia.
ASSETS TO TRADE
The Senators were solid for almost $1 billion. Now, that’s an asset. Unfortunately, the team itself doesn’t have many. That is the biggest hurdle stopping Staios from executing an aggressive deadline but will be limited by not having their first-round picks either this year or in 2026. Meanwhile, after trading first-round picks in three straight years, outside of Carter Yakemchuk, there are no other Grade-A prospects. Ottawa has its second-rounder this year and three third-round picks in 2026. Watch for those to be potentially on the move at the deadline and potentially former first-round pick Jacob Bernard-Docker, who seems to have fallen out of favour in coach Travis Green’s eyes. He’s been a healthy scratch since returning from injury after 4 Nations.
OTHER CONSIDERATIONS
From what I’ve been told, Ottawa thinks there is a chance Nick Cousins returns from his knee injury in April, which is factoring into their trade deadline computations.
