Something or Nothing: Breaking down early playoff storylines from each series
With the first week of the Stanley Cup Playoffs in the books, Sonny Sachdeva breaks down the early storylines from each series and whether there’s something to the noise or nothing to worry about.
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The first week of the Stanley Cup Playoffs is nearly in the books, and with it has come the first wave of theories, storylines and narratives surrounding what we’ve seen play out on the ice.
As is always the case, some of those early storylines have held true as series have stretched from Game 1 into Games 2 or 3.
And some fall apart under closer scrutiny, the narratives undone by context or a bigger sample size.
That in mind, let’s take a closer look at some of the chatter surrounding each series and whether there’s something to the noise or nothing to worry about.
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Maple Leafs vs. Senators: Has Ottawa been the better team at 5-on-5?
If you asked Travis Green or the Senators faithful, you could come away thinking the Maple Leafs are lucky to be leading their provincial rival 2-0 in the first-round Battle of Ontario bout. The Sens head coach made a point of highlighting his club’s 5-on-5 play after Toronto’s 6-2 Game 1 win. After dropping Game 2 in overtime, the coach said he felt his club probably deserved a better fate following another strong performance.
Is this something or nothing? There’s a hint of truth here. The Sens have played some quality hockey at 5-on-5, and enough to believe they have it in them to pull out a win before this series is through. But context is key, and here it seems to tilt this more towards nothing than something Ottawa should hang its hat on. First, there’s the simple fact that being superior at 5-on-5 matters little if another foundational part of your approach is taking a ton of penalties and allowing your opponent to stack power-play goals (Toronto netted three in Game 1 alone, and another in Game 2). But more importantly, there’s the bigger-picture view of how those 5-on-5 numbers have been earned.
As Sportsnet’s Justin Bourne broke down in his analysis of the series’ first two games, you can’t look at the two teams’ performances at 5-on-5 without considering the score of the game and the impact that had on each team’s approach. In both Games 1 and 2, Toronto built an early lead and then sat back and defended, letting the Sens make their push. When the Leafs weren’t protecting a lead (when the teams were tied), it was Toronto who had the edge in attempts. So, nothing much here, until the Sens can replicate their 5-on-5 success when the game is still on level ground.
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Lightning vs. Panthers: Has Andrei Vasilevskiy lost his big-game reputation?
Much of the renewed optimism surrounding the 2025 Bolts rested on the play of their star netminder. After putting up the worst numbers of his career in 2023-24, Vasilevskiy rebounded with a sterling 2024-25 for Tampa Bay, his .921 save percentage ranking as the best mark he’s managed in four seasons. But it mattered little in Game 1 against the defending champs — Florida potted six goals on just 17 shots to start the series, casting doubt on Vasilevskiy’s resurgence.
Is this something or nothing? One game in, it’s too early to tell. But there’s no question the Bolts don’t get far in this post-season without Vasilevskiy recovering the elite form he showed all year. Go back through the tape on Game 1, and it’s tough to blame him wholly for the six-goal shellacking, though. The first goal is a puck tipped out of mid-air by Sam Bennett, the second a beautiful deflection from Sam Reinhart flying to the netfront from the corner. On the fourth, Matthew Tkachuk is left all alone in front with no defender in sight, and on the fifth, Tkachuk fires one into a netfront crowd hoping it squeaks through.
Still, at the end of the day, 11 saves on 17 shots isn’t going to cut it for a team with Cup dreams. Vasielvskiy’s past two playoffs — an .897 save percentage and one win through five games last year, an .875 and two wins through six games a year prior — add a real extra layer of worry. It’s been a long time since he looked dominant in the post-season — a statement Game 2 performance seems a must from the Bolts ‘tender.
Canadiens vs. Capitals: Are the Caps just too big and physical for the Habs?
It seems the perfect pairing for playoff hockey: the giant, veteran bruisers vs. the high-flying, very-not-giant youngsters. Catch any stretch of play through this series’ early going, and the thinking here is clear — you could already cut a fair collection of clips of Caps tossing Canadiens players to the ice, or running right through them. And already down 2-0 in this first-round bout, against a Caps team that looked elite all season, it’s fair to wonder about the way back for the young underdogs.
Is this something or nothing? There’s little question the Caps have an advantage here. They’re massive. But the plain fact of how these first two games have actually played out suggests that advantage isn’t exactly swinging things heavily in Washington’s favour. True, Washington has out-hit Montreal by a margin of 42-33 in Game 1, 30-23 in Game 2. But even with that advantage, and even with all their other advantages — like an offence that operated at a much higher level this season, and a defence that earned better results too — the games have been extremely close.
It took overtime for Alex Ovechkin and Co. to take out the Habs in Game 1. Game 2 was a one-goal affair until the Caps tacked on an empty-netter in the final seconds of the tilt. So, as huge and rugged as these Caps may be, it’s not exactly helping them dominate the Habs. Montreal’s offensive leaders — Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield and Lane Hutson — have all put points on the board, so that physicality isn’t cancelling them out. File this under “nothing” until the Capitals manage to pull away in a game.
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Hurricanes vs. Devils: Does this Devils offence have enough without Hughes?
This was the question everyone mulled in early March when it was announced that Jack Hughes would miss the final 20 games of the regular season. Jersey went 9-10-1 over the rest of 2024-25, but held onto their No. 3 spot in the Metropolitan Division. Now, facing a Canes squad that iced a top-10 defence and a top-10 offence this season, New Jersey finds itself down 2-0, yet to put together a quality showing.
Is this something or nothing? It certainly seems like something. The Devils managed just one goal in each of the first two games of this series, while the Canes potted seven between the two tilts. But you can trace the club’s issues back further, through that final month-and-a-half of the regular season without Hughes. When the Devils’ star pivot went down, he was pacing his team in goals, shots, and game-winners, sitting tied for the team lead in points, and earning the most ice time per game of any forward in the lineup.
The Devils ranked 14th in the league with 2.98 goals per game at that point, and 11th with 29 shots per game — already not exactly elite, even with him. Over the remainder of the season after Hughes went down, they averaged just 2.75 goals per game (26th in the league over that span) and 25.2 shots per game (28th). It’s early, but considering what they came up with through two games — and the fact that the Canes have not only outscored them 7-2, but outshot them 73-50 as well — the way back seems a steep climb.
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32 Thoughts: The Podcast
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Jets vs. Blues: Is Hellebuyck faltering in the playoffs yet again?
The past two years in Winnipeg have seen Connor Hellebuyck trade sterling regular-season numbers for questionable post-season performances. After earning a Vezina nomination in 2022-23, and winning the trophy in 2023-24, the veteran fell short in the games that mattered most in both years, posting an .886 save percentage and one win through five games in 2023 and an .864 and one win through five games in 2024. Now, after another stellar regular season, which has him as the favourite for the Vezina and also a potential Hart candidate, Hellebuyck came out of the gate and stumbled against St. Louis, allowing three goals on the Blues’ first 10 shots of the series.
Is this something or nothing? The start was shaky, but Hellebuyck’s Game 2 performance should quiet the doubters. While things got away from him early in Game 1, the veteran recovered and held down the fort, his offence bailing him out with a five-goal performance. The next time out, though, it was Hellebuyck who bailed out the skaters in front of him — the Commerce, Mich., product came up with a slew of key stops early in Game 2, before the Jets had settled into the tilt, holding St. Louis at bay until the rest of the squad got their legs under them.
That steady opening-frame stretch allowed Winnipeg to strike first and control the game. And while Hellebuyck was beaten once, on an inch-perfect power-play wrister, he kept out everything else the Blues threw at him, making the type of timely saves the Jets need from him in these playoffs. Through two games, he’s already collected as many wins as he managed over the past two years combined. Another quality showing in Game 3 should put the doubts to bed.
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Avalanche vs. Stars: Will injury woes sink Dallas’s chances?
Stocked with elite talent at every position, and fresh off two straight trips to the Conference Final, the Stars have been a Cup favourite since before the puck dropped on 2024-25. Add in the late-season arrival of former champ Mikko Rantanen, and it seemed nothing could stop the Stars. Except, perhaps, the injury bug. Veteran forward Tyler Seguin underwent a December hip surgery, star defenceman Miro Heiskanen had knee surgery a couple of months later, and lead sniper Jason Robertson suffered a lower-body injury in the final game of the regular season. And then the Avalanche came out flying in the first game of the Stars’ post-season test, dominating Dallas with a 5-1 drubbing in Game 1.
Is this something or nothing? The holes in the Stars’ roster are hefty, and Dallas’s Game 1 performance left more to be desired. But the two games since have made clear just how much they still have to work with. The Stars battled back to take Games 2 and 3 in overtime, putting the Avs on their heels. Key to both wins was the man who’s taken over as Dallas’s No. 1 blue-liner in Heiskanen’s absence: Thomas Harley. The 23-year-old skated a team-leading 35:54 in Game 2 and put a goal on the board. In Game 3, he skated a team-leading 29:47 and set up a late tying goal to get Dallas to overtime.
Just as crucial has been the first injury returnee, Seguin. Returning to the lineup in the final game of the regular season, the vet’s been lights out through Dallas’s recent wins, tallying a power-play goal that pulled the Stars level in Game 2, and winning Game 3 himself with an overtime clincher. Suddenly, it looks like Dallas has all they need even without Heiskanen or Robertson — and there’s a chance one or both could return before this series is through.
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Oilers vs. Kings: Is Edmonton’s blue line strong enough for another deep run?
Questions about the Oilers’ defence are nothing new. They were there during Edmonton’s Cup Final run last year and remained through the 2024-25 campaign. But they were made more pressing by the loss of veteran Mattias Ekholm, who went down late in the campaign and was announced out for Round 1. With the Oilers’ goaltending situation far from rock solid, the worry out West is whether Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl have the support they need to earn another crack at Lord Stanley.
Is this something or nothing? Twelve goals in two games definitely doesn’t seem like nothing. It’s been a miserable start to the post-season for the Oilers, and the defence corps has been at the centre of it. Just two-and-a-half minutes into Game 1, Andrei Kuzmenko was left all alone standing beside Stuart Skinner’s crease to pot the first of the series. After Quinton Byfield added another, the Kings were gifted a third goal and then a fourth off Evan Bouchard gaffes. Even a Herculean effort by McDavid, who finished with a four-point night and a few highlight-reel sequences in Game 1, wasn’t enough to fully pull them back. Two nights later, the Oilers offence was quieted, held to two goals, and the Kings’ offence picked up right where it left off.
It’s not a new problem for these Oilers — they were a middle-of-the-pack defensive squad during the regular season and during last year’s playoff run — but they’re staring down an early summer if they can’t get things back on track in Game 3. For as porous as the Oilers were during 2024’s Cup Final run, they allowed six goals in a game exactly zero times. Two games into 2025’s bid, they’ve already done it twice.
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Golden Knights vs. Wild: Is Kirill Kaprizov the most impactful player in this series?
It’s no mystery that Minnesota’s post-season hopes are tied to Kaprizov’s own Cup dreams. The Wild will go as their talisman goes, and through two games it seems No. 97’s going full-steam ahead. The 27-year-old has been a handful for Vegas so far, stacking five points on the Knights through Games 1 and 2, his performance a key reason this series is tied 1-1. Fresh off a regular season that saw Jack Eichel turn in the best campaign of his career, while Kaprizov missed half the year with injury, it seems the underdog Wild have the more impactful phenom in the first-round bout so far.
Is this something or nothing? There’s still plenty of series left, but to this point, Kaprizov certainly seems to have Vegas’s number. He’s been flat-out brilliant through the series’ early going. In Game 1 — a narrow one-goal tilt until Vegas tacked on an empty-netter — Kaprizov set up both of Minnesota’s goals, both scored by Matt Boldy, the first of those assists coming in the form of a crafty fake slapper-turned-cross-ice pass. In Game 2, Kaprizov kicked things off with another set up for Boldy (an inch-perfect saucer pass that set the latter off on a breakaway), then scored one himself (beating Adin Hill five-hole off an odd-man rush), and added an empty-netter for his troubles.
Beyond the scoresheet, it’s still been all No. 97, the Wild heavily out-chancing the Golden Knights when Kaprizov is on the ice. On the other side of the ledger, Vegas’s top two scorers, Eichel and Mark Stone, have yet to record a point in the series.
