Stanley Cup Playoffs Round 1 Preview: Golden Knights vs. Wild
The Wild are no stranger to getting this far. But can they beat the Golden Knights beast in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs? Rory Boylen breaks it down.
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For the fourth time in team history (which is eight years old) the Vegas Golden Knights come out of the regular season as champions of the Pacific Division. The Minnesota Wild are back in the post-season after missing out a year ago and are not only seeking to pull off an upset, but end a decade-long run without any playoff success at all.
The Wild are no stranger to getting this far. They have reached the playoffs in eight of the past 10 seasons and even hit the 100-point mark in the regular season four times, but they haven’t won a series since 2014-15. This season things were looking up very early in Minnesota, one of the league’s best teams through the first half of the season. Injuries bit them and challenged the team’s depth, but they were able to maintain a position that allowed them to control their own destiny and clinch a post-season berth in their final regular season game.
Sure, there are reasons to believe this Wild team could finally get over the hump and win a round. But the mid-season swoon that put them on the playoff cutline so late has resulted in Minnesota matching up against one of the top contenders and the 2023 champions right out of the gate.
By now we know what to expect from Vegas. They’ll do everything in their power to ice a great team, they have one of the best coaches in the game with Bruce Cassidy and, despite having to shave some good players from the roster to make way for incoming bodies over the years, they remain one of the deepest teams in the NHL.
You know their stars. Jack Eichel had a career offensive season and might get some love for the Selke Trophy. Mark Stone might still be their best defensive forward. Shea Theodore and Alex Pietrangelo are both top defenders capable of making Team Canada. But how much do you know about someone like Pavel Dorofeyev? The 24-year-old broke out with 34 goals this season to lead the entire team.
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There is not a lot of history between these two teams. The last time they met in the playoffs was during the COVID-shortened 2020-21 season when divisions were realigned and Vegas ousted the Wild 4-3 in the first round. There hasn’t been much time or opportunity to build up animosity between these two sides, but with the Wild at full strength again this series could be closer than it first appears.
Head-to-head record
Vegas Golden Knights: 3-0-0
Minnesota Wild: 0-3-0
The breakdown
Remember the great start Winnipeg had to its season, winning 15 of its first 16 games into mid-November? When that stretch ended, the Wild had only one more regulation loss than Winnipeg and were doing their darnedest to keep pace. Twenty-five games into the season, on Dec. 3, Minnesota was the best team in the NHL. Then a cascade of important injuries hit the roster.
Joel Eriksson Ek was the first to go down, the top centre on the team and a reliable two-way player. Minnesota went 5-6-0 without him. Then, just before the holiday break, team MVP Kirill Kaprizov went down and missed a month, returned for just three games and became injured again. The second injury kept Kaprizov out of the lineup until the last four games in the regular season and ended his early candidacy for the Hart Trophy. From Jan. 27 to April 8, when Kaprizov was out, the Wild went 13-12-3.
Ryan Hartman and Mats Zuccarello played 69 games, Jake Middleton was limited to 67, Jared Spurgeon to 66, and Jonas Brodin to 50. When the injury bug bit, it bit hard and for a team that still has $14.6 million in dead cap space due to past buyouts, it became difficult to maneuver.
Back to full health now, the Wild will be in their best form, but is that good enough to topple a favourite like Vegas? The fact is the Wild are still taking shape. They’ll no longer be tied to such a heavy cap penalty next this season and could be more aggressive in trying to upgrade the roster now that most of the core is locked in to contracts. Justin Brazeau and Gustav Nyquist were their notable trade deadline pickups this season.
The Golden Knights will be heavy favourites here, and why not? They’ve controlled the Pacific Division for most of this season and will be a matchup nightmare for the Wild. Good luck to Minnesota if they ever try to shield Kaprizov from top competition because Vegas has two elite defence pairings to throw over the boards and a top-six collection of forwards that are also defensively sound.
Three NHL teams had both a top five offence and top five defence this season: Winnipeg, Tampa Bay and Vegas. The Golden Knights also finished with the second-best power play in the league and have a decisive advantage on special teams even though their PK was among the worst in the league. That’s because Minnesota’s PK was even worse and their power play in the bottom half of the league.
The Golden Knights have advantages everywhere you look. Better days are surely ahead for the Wild, but there doesn’t look to be too great a chance they could upset Vegas in 2025.
Advanced stats
(5-on-5 totals from Natural Stat Trick)
Regular season team stats
Golden Knights X-Factor: Tomas Hertl
Last year’s big splash at the trade deadline, Tomas Hertl first arrived in Vegas an injured player, didn’t have much time to get used to his team in the lead up to the playoffs and ultimately wasn’t much of a factor in Vegas’ six-game loss to Dallas. Hertl produced a single point, a goal in Game 1.
This year Hertl has found his groove in Vegas, hitting the 30-goal plateau for the third time in his career and rounding out a deep and dangerous collection of centres with William Karlsson and Jack Eichel.
The Golden Knights need more from Hertl in this year’s playoffs than he was prepared to offer last year, but again a late-season injury instilled some concern. A March 23 hard crash into the end boards kept Hertl — running hot with 13 points in 11 games at the time — out for a couple weeks. He played three of Vegas’ final four games, recording a goal and an assist versus Calgary.
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Wild X-Factor: Kirill Kaprizov
We talked earlier about how the brightest days for Minnesota still seemed in the future, with a young core locked in and a buyout clog in the payroll about to be relieved. But there is still one missing piece to that: Kirill Kaprizov’s contract will expire after next season and he’ll be eligible to sign an extension as soon as July 1 this summer. Minnesota’s entire outlook hinges on them being able to keep their best player and one of the most dynamic scorers in the entire NHL.
How much will the Wild’s success (or not) in the post-season impact Kaprizov’s decision? That remains to be seen. But the fact of it is that the Wild will go as far as Kaprizov can carry them right now, and it’ll be a heavy lift to just get out of the first round.
When Kaprizov first left the lineup in December with an injury he was fourth in NHL scoring with 50 points in 34 games, tied for first in even strength points, and led the league with 20 even strength goals. Approaching the halfway mark, when the Wild were still near the top of the NHL table, Kaprizov was a strong Hart Trophy candidate.
For the Wild to even have a sniff at knocking off Vegas, Kaprizov needs a series to remember.
Broadcast Details
Game 1: Sunday, April 20, 10 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. PT (Sportsnet, SN360)
Game 2: Tuesday, April 22, 11 p.m. ET / 8 p.m. PT (Sportsnet, SN360)
Game 3: Thursday, April 24, 9 p.m. ET / 6 p.m. PT (SN360)
Game 4: Saturday, April 26, 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT (SN West, SN Pacific, SN One)
* Game 5: Tuesday, April 29, Time TBD
* Game 6: Thursday, May 1, Time TBD
* Game 7: Saturday, May 3, Time TBD
* if necessary
