Szymborski’s 2025 Booms and Busts: Hitters

As someone who runs a lot of projections, I’m used to being very wrong. Of the approximately 4,000 players projected every season, some 800 or so will fail to meet their 10th-percentile projection or exceed their 90th, meaning ZiPS, and by extension Dan Szymborski, will be/look horribly wrong. There’s still time before the start of the regular season to put myself into even greater jeopardy, meaning it’s time for my annual list of favorite booms and busts. The concept for these is simple, in that these are my picks for players to change how they are currently perceived. Sometimes it’s because of a projection, sometimes because of a hunch, a gut feeling, or just something I think projections might not be capturing. Since we’re going on a limb here, there will be some epic failures, and maybe [prayer emoji] even a success or two.

As usual, let’s start with a quick review of last year’s picks.

Last season was definitely not one of my more successful years, unless I can convince you that I simply accidentally put Spencer Torkelson and Keibert Ruiz in the wrong section when formatting my article, and the optimistic text you read was meant to be sarcastic. If you don’t buy that claim, well, let’s just say that I’m getting all my wrong picks for the decade out of the way earlier, because that is totally how that works.

OK, enough about last year. Here are my picks, starting with the booms:

The Booms!

James Wood, Washington Nationals

James Wood already looks good. By the end of the season, I think he’ll look even better, and we’ll talk less about his upside and more about what he is. ZiPS projects a wRC+ of 125 and 20 homers from Wood. I think he’ll beat both of those by at least 10 and make the All-Star team. I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets a few MVP votes, beyond just a stray pick by a hometown writer. I think Dylan Crews will break out as well, but Wood will be The Man in DC.

Nolan Schanuel, Los Angeles Angels

ZiPS is certainly not on board with this one, seeing little chance that Nolan Schanuel’s power improves significantly in the short term. That’s perfectly justified by the underlying stats — Schanuel definitely hasn’t hit the ball very hard in the majors — but I think his fast-track to the big leagues is a mitigating factor here. Schanuel only played in the minors for a couple weeks, so he doesn’t have much pro ball experience compared to other young hitters entering their second full season in the majors; considering this, his solid plate discipline against MLB pitchers looks all the more impressive and is a strong foundation to build upon. He reportedly focused on improving his bat speed this winter, and while spring training is a limited sample size, he’s averaging a 94.5-mph exit velocity in the Cactus League, and none of his balls in play have been hit below 80 mph. I don’t think he’s going to become Aaron Judge or anything, but I think he’s capable of producing more pop than what we’ve seen thus far. If he can slug even .420, that would be pretty valuable given his on-base prowess.

Isaac Paredes, Houston Astros

You might notice that despite ZiPS having its own version of expected stats, it’s quite high on Paredes after years of being a grumpy gus. The change is due to some modeling I’ve done in the last few years, trying to more accurately predict how players will do in different park configurations outside of a basic value adjustment and lefty/righty factors. One of the bigger adjustments is that ZiPS now looks at pull/spray tendencies and how they interact with park effects, and the biggest beneficiary this year is Paredes. ZiPS projects that Minute Maid Daikin Park will be a great home for him, and I have to show some faith in my creation, don’t I? I also like the idea of having someone make a “boom” list a year after making the “bust” column.

Marcelo Mayer, Boston Red Sox

It didn’t seem like Marcelo Mayer would make the team this quickly, but with Kristian Campbell having a weak spring, and the Red Sox seemingly shifting away from the idea of playing Alex Bregman at second when Rafael Devers is 100% ready to go, things have shifted quite a bit. Mayer’s an elite prospect, and he represents Boston’s future at shortstop rather than second base, but the Red Sox wouldn’t be giving him this much time at second this late in the spring while optioning Vaughn Grissom if they weren’t planning on having Mayer play the position to start the season. If Mayer plays well, Campbell emerges and Trevor Story stays healthy, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Red Sox go full gas pedal on a Story trade and turn to a Mayer-Campbell middle infield by the time the leaves start changing colors.

Joe Mack, Miami Marlins

This is an example where the projections and the situation combine to make a solid case for me. While Joe Mack only just made the ZiPS Top 100 prospects for the first time, he was also the catcher with the biggest jump in his five-year projection. His .241/.322/.456 line for Double-A Pensacola doesn’t dazzle at first glance, but the Southern League is a brutal place for power hitters at the moment, with a league-wide .349 slugging percentage. Mack’s 22 homers actually led the league, with only five players hitting 15 or more. The Marlins need offense desperately, and Mack has a strong arm, an important thing in a league with exploding stolen base totals. Either Mack or Agustin Ramírez will likely take Nick Fortes’ playing time in Miami soon, and I think Mack might actually get there first, with Ramírez being the small part of the tandem and playing first base or designated hitter.

Max Muncy, The Athletics

The Max Muncy on the Athletics hasn’t gotten a whole lot of press, possibly because people assume they’ve just come across a decade-old profile from when Full Retail Price Max Muncy was an A’s infield prospect himself. This Muncy is known for his ability to play shortstop and his moderate power rather than an impressive hit tool, but he’s improved as he’s gone up the ladder, hitting .277/.374/.491 for a 117 wRC+ in Triple-A. That’s a very successful line for a 21-year-old shortstop in the high minors. He’s not going to displace Jacob Wilson, but I think Muncy could very well push the Gio Urshela/Luis Urías pair off of third base at some point this year.

Vinny Capra, Milwaukee Brewers

Spring training doesn’t mean much, but it means something, and sudden power increases for a hitter are surprisingly sticky after small sample sizes. That Vinny Capra has hit five homers this spring after eight in the minors all of last year makes him at least interesting, and he plays third base, where the Brewers don’t have a long-term solution. The lefty-hitting Oliver Dunn also plays third and has been very good in the Cactus League, but Capra, who bats right-handed, has worked his way into consideration for a platoon role against southpaws. ZiPS projects Capra’s OPS to be 65 points higher against lefties than righties.

Gage Workman, Chicago Cubs

Gage Workman’s bread-and-butter has been defense, and he’s never really been expected to hit. But he’s continued to hit in the minors as he’s advanced up the ladder, to the extent that I think he’s more useful to the Cubs than either Vidal Bruján or Jon Berti. Workman won’t supplant any of the current starters, but he’s one of those guys who I think could accumulate 300 plate appearances while playing four or five positions, and quietly put up a 2-WAR season that nobody notices. Considering how off the radar he was six months ago, I’ll call this a boom.

The Busts!

Luis Robert Jr., Chicago White Sox

I really like Luis Robert Jr., and I really hope I’m wrong, but I don’t think he’s going to get all the way back to his 2021-2023 level of play. I think last year’s defensive drop-off reflects the cumulative effect of the various leg injuries he’s suffered over the last two seasons. He hasn’t made much progress at all toward improving his plate discipline or his contact rate, either. I think he’ll rebound some, to 2 WAR or thereabouts, but I think we’ll be calling him a potential star a lot less often a year from now than we are right now.

Triston Casas, Boston Red Sox

Triston Casas is the eternal breakout candidate, but I just don’t see it. For one, he’s in a poor park for a lefty who needs to hit for a lot of power to have value. He’s an unimpressive defensive player at first, and as for his contact skills, let’s just say that he had a lower contact rate in 2024 than Javier Báez did. I don’t think Casas is terrible, but I also don’t think he’s actually a foundational part of Boston’s future like Devers, Mayer, Campbell, or Roman Anthony.

Josh Bell, Washington Nationals

Josh Bell’s drop-off in exit velocity was no fluke; you can see it in the two mph he lost in his swing speed from 2023 to 2024 and his deteriorating performance against fastballs. His late-season rebound last year with Arizona may have generated some optimism that he still has something left in his bat, but I think the Nats will be scrambling for a better DH option by June if they’re in contention.

Marcus Semien, Texas Rangers

Why not continue my run of predicting awful things for players I like? Marcus Semien has come back from down seasons before, but doing that at age 34 is different than at 30. I think his drop in batting average and slugging percentage will stick more than the projection systems do, and I’d put him down for 3-3.5 WAR rather than eclipsing 4 WAR again in 2025.

Jordan Walker, St. Louis Cardinals

I understand why the Cardinals believe in Jordan Walker. He possesses significant upside, and I’ve had him on a breakout list before, but his progress has stalled over his first two years in the majors. He’s having a lousy spring training, going 3-for-22 over nine games and posting a brutal 64.4% contact rate; he also missed some time with a knee injury before returning late last week. I think he’s back in the minors by Memorial Day.

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