The 2024 Rule 5 Draft Scouting Reports

The major league phase of the 2024 Rule 5 Draft was held Wednesday at the Winter Meetings in Dallas and concluded with 15 players being selected to join new organizations. Below are my thoughts on those players. The numbers you see in parentheses represent each team’s 40-man roster count entering the draft.

Before I get to the reports, my annual refresher on the Rule 5 Draft’s complex rules. Players who signed their first pro contract at age 18 or younger are eligible for selection after five years of minor league service if their parent club has not yet added them to the team’s 40-man roster; for players who signed at age 19 or older, the timeline is four years. Teams with the worst win/loss record from the previous season pick first, and those that select a player must not only (a) pay said player’s former club $100,000, but also (b) keep the player on their 26-man active roster throughout the entirety of the following season, with a couple of exceptions that mostly involve the injured list. If a selected player doesn’t make his new team’s active roster, he is offered back to his former team for half of the initial fee. After the player’s first year on the roster, he can be optioned back to the minor leagues.

First Round
1. Chicago White Sox (37)
Shane Smith, RHP, from the Milwaukee Brewers

Smith had Tommy John during his draft year and signed as an undrafted free agent in 2021. Back from rehab in the fall of 2022, he was 93-95 mph with a good curveball and spotty control. His velocity took a leap in 2023, as he was sitting 94-97 at the end of the season, and he carried that velocity into the start of 2024 before the Brewers moved him from the bullpen into the Double-A Biloxi rotation. That’s when Smith’s fastball dipped backed into the 93-95 mph range, and even when Milwaukee returned the 24-year-old to the bullpen at the end of the year, it still hung there. Smith should at least have adequate big league reliever velocity, and perhaps more than that if his arm strength rebounds. He began re-incorporating sliders and cutters into his pitch mix in 2024 after he was mostly fastball/curveball in 2023. His curveball did not perform as well in 2024 as it did in 2023, and it’s plausible that his repertoire will be pared down if Smith ends up in Chicago’s bullpen right away. Milwaukee’s experimentation with Smith as a starter was a worthy endeavor but, realistically, he’s going to be a fairly standard middle reliever with two plus pitches.

2. Colorado Rockies (39)
Pass

3. Miami Marlins (39)
Liam Hicks, C, from the Detroit Tigers

Hicks was drafted in the 2021 ninth round out of Arkansas State and signed for $30,000. He made plus rates of contact all the way up through Double-A with the Rangers before he was traded to the Tigers at the 2024 deadline as part of the package for Carson Kelly. He’s a .274/.405/.374 career hitter in the minors and has a unique statistical profile thanks to his combination of contact ability (he had a 6% swinging strike rate in 2024) and the extreme uphill launch created by his swing. He takes his cuts bent at the waist with his hands over the top of the zone and his bat has a vertical angle through contact. Hicks had an 18 degree average launch angle in 2024, near the top of what is sustainable at the big league level. As you can probably tell from his career SLG, Hicks lacks the power to weaponize his bat path. In fact his contact is so light that it detracts a bit from his ability to hit for average even though he’s making so much of it.

Hicks has also struggled to develop on defense. Too often he just whiffs on catching pitches altogether, and he gives up a ton of long rebounds on balls in the dirt. It’s possible his defense will not allow him to stick on Miami’s roster. A fascinating statistical outlier, Hicks projects as a team’s third catcher long-term.

4. Los Angeles Angels (39)
Garrett McDaniels, LHP, from the Los Angeles Dodgers

A 2022 undrafted free agent out of Division II Mount Olive, McDaniels is a sinewy vertical slot southpaw who had a breakout 2024 after only pitching 19 total innings combined between the 2022 post-draft period and the 2023 season due to recovery from Tommy John. In 2024, his first relatively healthy pro season, McDaniels began the year in a piggyback role and worked as many as five innings at a time. When he returned from an IL stint (elbow tendinitis) in June, he was shifted into a relief role and immediately promoted to High-A Great Lakes. For the rest of the year, McDaniels worked an inning or two at a time and he thrived. Across 25.1 innings at Great Lakes, he struck out 34 hitters and walked just five, posting a 0.95 WHIP and 2.49 ERA; he was promoted to Double-A at the very end of the season. McDaniels works downhill with a 93-ish mph sinker, and he added a second breaking pitch in 2024, a mid-80s slider with plus depth that quickly became his best pitch. He also has a slower curveball with similarly shaped movement. McDaniels is essentially trying to make the leap from High-A to the big leagues, which is tough, but from a stuff standpoint, he’s a fairly standard lefty middle reliever who fits the bill of a typical Rule 5 pick.

5. Athletics (37)
Noah Murdock, RHP, from the Kansas City Royals

Murdock is a lean, high-waisted 6-foot-8 right-hander who transitioned to a relief role in 2023. Murdock’s velocity leapt into a range that he had only previously peaked in, and he’s sat 94-97 mph each of the last two seasons, but he also posted unsightly walk rates above 15%. He has long been of note because of his size and stuff, but he’s dealt with several injuries and inconsistent performance. Murdock throws from a three-quarters slot that produces above-average movement on his sinker when he’s working it down in the zone. He throws both a slider (81-85 mph) and a cutter (87-90 mph), which often share a similar short shape but come in at different velocities. The slider also flashes hard, two-plane depth when he stays on top of it. The Athletics have targeted wild pitchers with huge stuff before (Ryan Cusick, Joe Boyle, Will Klein), and Murdock will compete with that group for a bullpen spot. Pitchers this wild tend not to stick on their new club.

6. Washington Nationals (36)
Evan Reifert, RHP, from the Tampa Bay Rays

Reifert transferred from an Iowa JUCO to Central Missouri, became a $20,000 undrafted free agent of the Brewers after the draft in 2020, and then was flipped for big league role player Mike Brosseau the following November. He was limited to just 44 combined innings in 2022 and 2023 due to multiple injuries. He spent 2024 at Double-A Montgomery, had a mostly healthy year, and struck out 40% of opposing batters, while posting a career-best 10% walk rate. Reifert’s slider is incredible, a mid-80s knee-buckler that he throws more than his fastball; it often freezes hitters even when Reifert hangs it and he was throwing it a bit harder than he was in 2023. Reifert’s fastball sits 94-96 mph and has running action out of his three-quarters arm slot. It tends to find the meat of the zone (or miss the zone entirely) much more than the up/arm-side location where it would play best. Reifert will probably always be a little too shaky of a strike-thrower to regularly warrant high-leverage assignments, but he has an elite pitch and plus arm strength, which should let him play a middle inning role immediately.

7. Toronto Blue Jays (39)
Angel Bastardo, RHP, from the Boston Red Sox

Bastardo had Tommy John in late June and will go on the 60-day IL immediately. It’s possible he won’t return early enough in 2025 to satisfy the requirement that he be active for at least 90 days for Toronto to keep him; that might have to wait until 2026. The Red Sox had developed Bastardo as a starter for his entire career but due to his fastball’s surprising lack of playability and his below-average control, he has been projected as a reliever here at FanGraphs. Bastardo’s best pitch is his changeup, an 84-88 mph offering that dies as it approaches the plate as if an invisible parachute has popped out of the back of it. He can manipulate breaking ball shape but doesn’t land his slider regularly, and Bastardo’s arm angle is the sort that imparts hittable shape and angle on his fastball. He should be able to reach back for more heat in a one-inning role and bully hitters with even more velocity. His injury adds risk and delays his debut, but Bastardo has arguably the most upside of any Rule 5 pick as a late-inning reliever.

8. Pittsburgh Pirates (36)
Pass

9. Cincinnati Reds (37)
Cooper Bowman, 2B, from the Athletics

Bowman, the Yankees’ 2021 fourth rounder out of Louisville, came to the A’s via the 2022 Frankie Montas trade. He’s a career .246/.346/.401 hitter in the minors and posted a .844 OPS over 80 games at Double-A Midland in 2024 before he was promoted to Triple-A for the final 38 games of the year and struggled (.592 OPS). Bowman plays solid defense at both second base and in center field, which gives him valuable versatility, and he’s a good baserunner, swiping bags 43 in 49 attempts last season. He’s performed like a roughly average contact hitter with below-average power, sufficient for a lower-impact utility role. Right now, TJ Friedl patrols center field while Matt McLain (who got center field reps in the Arizona Fall League) occupies second base, so Bowman would seem to be competing with versatile infielder Santiago Espinal and 2B/LF Tyler Callihan for an Opening Day roster spot.

10. Texas Rangers (39)
Pass

11. San Francisco Giants (40)
Pass (Full 40-man)

12. Tampa Bay Rays (37)
Nate Lavender, LHP, from the New York Mets

Lavender had the internal brace style of Tommy John early in 2024 and will likely start the 2025 season on the 60-day IL; he should be back in mid-to-late summer. In 2023, he struck out 86 hitters in 54.1 innings, and Lavender has a career K/9 of 13.7 even though his fastball, which he throws 65% of the time, sits just 91 mph. That’s because he has one of the more deceptive deliveries in the minors. He almost looks like someone who learned to throw with their left arm later in life. There are some Hideki Okajima elements to his delivery, including Lavender’s head whack, which prevents him from seeing his target at release. He gets way, way, way down the mound, generating seven and a half feet of extension. His arm action is also super whippy, and the line on his fastball is incredibly difficult for hitters to get on top of. The rest of his repertoire isn’t great, but Lavender smells like an up/down reliever on the back of his fastball alone. If he can come out of TJ rehab with a good second pitch or with more fastball velocity, look out.

13. Boston Red Sox (40)
Pass (Full 40-man)

14. Minnesota Twins (37)
Eiberson Castellano, RHP, from the Philadelphia Phillies

Castellano is a 23-year-old Venezuelan righty who, after two consecutive years at Low-A Clearwater, had a breakout 2024 and ended the season at Double-A Reading. Across 20 starts (22 games), he worked 103.2 innings, twice the innings of each of his previous two seasons. Here Castellano is projected as a reliever long-term. He’s been on and off the IL with back spasms and until 2024, he hadn’t demonstrated anything near starter-level durability or control. Castellano’s command is not as good to the eye as his 2024 2.52 BB/9 mark might indicate. That was comfortably a career-best walk rate for Castellano, who is a below-average athlete with a fairly inconsistent release. His changeup usage was up late in 2024, as if the Phillies were trying to see whether it would improve enough for them to roster him. Some of his changeups look good, but too many of them find the meat of the zone. If that pitch can grow, then Castellano has a shot to be a starter, albeit an inefficient one. He has a plus curveball and can mix sinkers and four-seamers together in the 93-95 mph range; the latter are fairly hittable. The middle relief forecast here assumes a velocity uptick in one-inning bursts, which will help Castellano’s fastball play a little better than it does now.

15. St. Louis Cardinals (38)
Pass

16. Chicago Cubs (39)
Gage Workman, 3B, from the Detroit Tigers

This was a curious pick, not because Workman isn’t an interesting prospect or potentially useful big leaguer, but because the Cubs already have so many third basemen on their roster. Relegated to third base because some of his college teammates were really great shortstop defenders, Workman has successfully moved up the defensive spectrum as a pro; he is now an above-average shortstop defender and a 70-grade glove at third. Workman’s footwork and actions are incredible for a player his size. At a long-torso’d 6-foot-4, he has remarkable body control and an impact arm.

There are old scouting tropes about big-framed hitters and switch-hitters tending to develop late. Workman was both. He struggled to make contact for his whole career and struck out 38% of the time at Double-A in 2023, a terrifying rate. In 2024, at age 25, Workman made real progress in this area. He ditched hitting from the right side and his 27.5% K% was the lowest since he was at Low-A, and Workman hit a BABIP-aided .280/.366/.476 with 18 home runs back at Erie. He has above-average raw power but is still whiffing a ton, especially against breaking stuff, and will likely continue to strike out so much that it limits his big league role. Workman represents a defensive upgrade to Isaac Paredes but lacks obvious roster utility beyond that, barring trades.

17. Seattle Mariners (37)
Pass

18. Kansas City Royals (38)
Pass

19. Detroit Tigers (40)
Pass (Full 40-man)

20. Houston Astros (39)
Pass

21. New York Mets (33)
Pass

22. Arizona Diamondbacks (36)
Pass

23. Atlanta Braves (36)
Anderson Pilar, RHP, from the Miami Marlins

The 26-year-old Pilar signed with the Rockies toward the end of 2015 and was in their org until after the 2023 season, when he elected free agency. He signed with the Marlins on a minor league deal and missed the first half of 2024 due to injury, but then reached Triple-A in a long relief role late in the year. Pilar then went to the Dominican Winter League, which is where his prospect stock took off, as he lowered his arm slot and added a few ticks to his entire repertoire. He was sitting 95 the day before the Rule 5 Draft after sitting 93 during the regular season. He now has a low three-quarters arm slot. Pilar throws a lot of cutters; it was his primary pitch all year but has taken a back seat to his fastball in LIDOM during the winter. The lower slot might help Pilar pronate over the top of his changeup a little better or work with a true sinker. There isn’t a slam dunk plus pitch here, but Pilar is an interesting pick because he might be in the middle of an arm strength surge that, if it holds into next spring, could help him root into a middle relief role.

24. Baltimore Orioles (39)
Pass

25. Cleveland Guardians (39)
Pass

26. San Diego Padres (33)
Juan Nuñez, RHP, from the Baltimore Orioles

Nuñez came to the O’s in the 2022 trade that sent Jorge López to Minnesota. He made his full-season debut in 2023, throwing just over 100 innings, and Nuñez was off to a great start in 2024 when he was shut down for the season in May with a shoulder injury. He was sitting 92-95 and touched 97 before he got hurt, and he has rare fastball spin, averaging around 2,500 rpm. Still, it’s an average fastball that played down due to Nuñez’s lack of command. Nuñez’s secondary stuff is awesome. His best sliders have sharp, two-plane shape with late break, and they’re nasty enough to freeze hitters or get them to chase. Because of his fastball’s in-zone vulnerability, Nuñez often uses his breaking ball as a way to get ahead of hitters. His least used pitch is a firm changeup at 85-88 mph that will flash unhittable, late diving action. It’s thrown with the same arm speed and falls off the table when Nuñez releases it right. Too often, he’ll throw changeups that are easily identifiable as balls out of hand. The pitch mix to start is here, and despite being listed at 5-foot-11, Nuñez has a very sturdy, muscular build and a gorgeous arm action that quell one’s concerns about him needing to work in relief due to a lack of size. Nuñez has pitched just 20 games above Low-A and will probably need to work in an inefficient relief role to stick on San Diego’s roster in 2024.

27. Milwaukee Brewers (37)
Connor Thomas, LHP, from the St. Louis Cardinals

There was a point when Thomas looked like a lock to be a backend starter, but he pitched out of Memphis’ bullpen in 2024, sometimes covering multiple innings at a time. He worked 90.1 total innings in 56 appearances. Thomas throws both a sinker and four-seamer that sit between 88-91 mph. Neither has plus movement or life, so Thomas fully depends on his impressive command to stop them from getting hammered. His plus-spinning slider, his most-used offering, has above-average length and two-plane shape in the 80-84 mph range. Thomas has robotically consistent command of it and uses it to get looking strikes and as a chase pitch. His cutter also has sharp action and crowds the hands of righty batters. He also throws his changeup to righties but too often that pitch either cuts or sails on Thomas. He has the look of a high-floored sixth to eighth starter but appears slated to play a bulk relief role in his first season with Milwaukee if indeed Thomas sticks.

28. New York Yankees (35)
Pass

29. Philadelphia Phillies (39)
Mike Vasil, RHP, from the New York Mets, traded to Tampa Bay Rays for cash considerations

Vasil looked like a late first/comp round prospect in high school, then had an untimely injury as a senior and only pitched a little bit before the draft, sitting his usual 92-95 mph. He ended up at Virginia, where he regressed, and he was sitting 91 throughout his draft year. Like a lot of pitchers who leave Virginia, Vasil had a rebound in pro ball and was back to sitting 92-95 for a couple of seasons before his velocity trended down again in 2024, and he was knocked around at Syracuse. Vasil has a deep coffer of below-average pitches, though his curveball played better toward the end of 2024. At peak, it looked like he’d compete for a rotation spot on a good team, but right now he looks more like a spot starter. With so many Rays arms returning from injury, it’s going to be an uphill climb for Vasil to make the active roster.

30. Los Angeles Dodgers (39)
Pass

Second Round (all but one club passed)
31. Atlanta Braves (36)
Christian Cairo, SS, from the Cleveland Guardians

The son of 17-year (wowzers) big league veteran Miguel Cairo, Christian is a skilled shortstop defender who was boxed out of a 40-man spot in Cleveland by the Guardians’ mantle-deep group of same-aged shortstops. At age 23, Cairo slashed .241/.354/.326 during a 2024 campaign split between Double-A Akron and Triple-A Columbus. The Braves drafted Cairo because of his defense, and he’ll likely compete with Nick Allen for an Opening Day roster spot as the team’s glove-first utilityman, which is Cairo’s ultimate projection. Though he lacks prototypical shortstop arm strength (and sometimes air mails throws when he’s a bit out of range), Cairo is otherwise an elegant and skillful shortstop with fantastic footwork and actions, a plus defender despite his substandard arm. He has below-average bat speed but pretty good feel for moving the barrel around the zone, and Cairo generates soft line drive spray to all fields.

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