The Reds Offense Has Been Dreadful So Far… But Keep an Eye on Elly

The Terry Francona era in Cincinnati is not off to a rousing start, particularly on offense. Last week, the Reds became the first team to lose three straight 1-0 games in 65 years, and so far, they’ve lost all three series they’ve played, against the Giants, Rangers, and Brewers. Despite the promise of a good rotation headlined by Hunter Greene, and some eye-opening changes by Elly De La Cruz, it looks like it could be a long summer in Cincinnati.

The Reds are 3-7 and fourth in the NL Central entering Monday. They’ve actually outscored opponents 39-38, but two of their three wins were lopsided ones, a 14-3 blowout of the Rangers on March 31 and then an 11-7 win on Saturday over the Brewers. Between those games, they lost four straight, including a pair of 1-0 games against the Rangers on April 1 and 2, and then a third 1-0 loss to the Brewers on April 3. They actually went scoreless for 35 consecutive innings, the longest stretch that a Reds team has gone without a run since 1946. The streak began with the eighth inning on March 31 (a home game, so they didn’t bat in the ninth), ran through those three 1-0 losses, and extended until the eighth on April 4, when they were down 3-0; they scored a pair of unearned runs but fell short, 3-2.

Amid that streak, the Reds made some dubious history, becoming just the sixth AL or NL team to lose three straight 1-0 games since 1901:

Four of those teams hail from the Deadball Era, including a couple with unfamiliar names: the 1909 Brooklyn Superbas (now the Dodgers) and the 1909 Washington Nationals (later the Senators, now the Twins). Only two teams have done it since World War II, with the Reds the first since the start of the Expansion Era. Yikes.

As a team, the Reds are hitting .210/.269/.352 for a 68 wRC+, the fourth-lowest mark in the majors. Outside of their two offensive outbursts, which account for nearly two-thirds of their runs, they’ve scored just 1.75 runs per game. The uneven performances have wasted some good pitching, as the staff ranks ninth in the majors in ERA (3.41) and 11th in FIP (3.82). The rotation is eighth in ERA (3.18) and fifth in FIP (3.35). The bullpen, which has been without closer Alexis Díaz due to a left hamstring strain, has been a dicier proposition (3.86 ERA, 4.70 FIP), but at the moment that problem appears secondary to the wheezing offense.

To be clear, it’s not Francona who assembled this roster, it’s president of baseball operations Nick Krall, who is hamstrung by ownership’s payroll limitations; while the organization’s current $116 million payroll is $29 million more than it was last season, the Reds have only climbed from 26th to 24th in spending. Francona came out of retirement after a year to take over for David Bell, who since his hiring before the 2019 season had guided the team to three finishes above .500 and one playoff appearance (in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season) but couldn’t get it over the hump, not that he always had the personnel to do so, either.

Last year’s Reds went 77-85 while scoring 4.31 runs per game, 0.2 per game below the league average. Even that probably overstated their offensive prowess, as they hit just .231/.305/.388 for an 87 wRC+, the majors’ fifth-lowest mark. They began the 2024 season with a logjam in the infield, but outside of De La Cruz (.259/.339/.471, 118 wRC+) and Jonathan India (.248/.357/.392, 108 wRC+), everybody involved had a disappointing season. Jeimer Candelario, their top free agent signing, hit .225/.279/.429 (87 wRC+) in the first season of a three-year, $45 million deal, the organization’s largest contract in four years. Christian Encarnacion-Strand, who was supposed to handle the bulk of first base duties after Joey Votto’s departure, hit .190/.220/.293 (33 wRC+) and played just 29 games due to an ulnar styloid fracture. Spencer Steer, who did a fair bit of filling in at first base when he wasn’t playing left field, hit just .225/.319/.402; his 96 wRC+ represented a 21-point drop from 2023. Noelvi Marte missed 80 games due to a PED suspension and hit .210/.248/.301 (46 wRC+). Santiago Espinal, acquired in a trade with the Blue Jays last March 20 to help cover for the loss of Marte, hit .246/.295/.356 (75 wRC+). Deadline pickup Ty France managed just a .251/.292/.391 (82 wRC+) showing. Matt McLain, who hit .290/.357/.507 (127 wRC+) in 89 games as a rookie in 2023, missed the entire season due to surgery to repair a torn left labrum.

It was generally a disaster, with catcher Tyler Stephenson the only other regular besides De La Cruz and India with a wRC+ of 100 or better. I haven’t even mentioned the outfield, where everyone who made more than 48 plate appearances hit for a 94 wRC+ or lower, and the 85 wRC+ the team received from its outfield as a whole tying for the majors’ fifth-worst mark. Kroll’s first big move of the offseason was to trade the defensively challenged India to the Royals along with Joey Wiemer in exchange for Brady Singer. As Kansas City’s fourth-best starter, Singer threw more innings (179 2/3) than any Reds starter and outpitched all of them except Greene and swingman Nick Martinez. In December, Kroll traded reliever Fernando Cruz and backup catcher Alex Jackson to the Yankees for Jose Trevino, who lost his starting job during an injury-wracked season and went just 4-for-41 in the second half. In January, Kroll traded third-round draft pick Mike Sirota to the Dodgers for Gavin Lux, who finished last season right at league average (100 wRC+) thanks to a strong second half that included harder swings and a more aggressive approach. The only position player the Reds signed to a major league free agent deal was outfielder Austin Hays, who hit was non-tendered after a disappointing season. Last year, he hit for a 98 wRC+ for the Orioles and Phillies and missed time with calf and hamstring strains as well as a kidney infection.

Even with the return of McLain and expected rebounds from a few of the above players, that hardly looked like enough to give the Reds offense the jolt it needed. One glance at our Positional Power Rankings summary, showing the ordinal ranks of each team at each position, underscored this team’s flaws: At six different lineup spots, the Reds ranked 24th or lower based upon our projections and playing time estimates, namely first base, third base, all three outfield spots, and designated hitter. They ranked sixth at their two best positions, shortstop (powered by De La Cruz) and second (McLain), and 11th at catcher (Stephenson and Trevino). As for the pitching, the starters — Greene, Singer, Martinez, Andrew Abbott, and Nick Lodolo — ranked 10th, while the bullpen was a disappointing 26th.

Ten games is just 10 games, but only two Reds with at least 10 plate appearances have a 100 wRC+ or better, namely Trevino (.294/.368/.529, 144 wRC+ in 19 PA) and McLain (.214/.290/.571, 129 wRC+ in 31 PA). Meanwhile, six players have a wRC+ of 65 or lower across at least 20 PA: Lux (65), Encarnacion-Strand and Espinal (both 60), Candelario (26), Steer (-5), and right fielder Jake Fraley (-19). Lux and Encarnacion-Strand are the only ones among that group who are at least making good contact. Trevino has done the bulk of the catching with Stephenson sidelined since mid-March by an oblique strain; the latter is scheduled to get an MRI on Monday to check the progress of his healing, and could start a rehab assignment soon. McLain was scratched from the lineup on Friday due to left hamstring tightness, and although he pinch-hit that night, he didn’t play either Saturday or Sunday. He may return as soon as Monday against the Giants in San Francisco. Also missing from the lineup is Hays, who strained his left calf during spring training and isn’t expected back before April 11, after the Reds return from their road trip. The expectation is that he’ll get the bulk of the work in left field, in some sort of share with the left-handed Lux.

As for De La Cruz, Cincinnati’s most interesting position player, his .250/.286/.450 (97 wRC+) line is underselling him. Even with a silver sombrero on Sunday, his 26.2% strikeout rate is about five points lower than what it was last year, and his contact stats, holy Ell. His 97.0 mph average exit velocity, 20.7% barrel rate, and 65.5% hard-hit rate all rank in the 92nd percentile or better; he’s got a .651 xSLG but not much to show for it yet.

Under the hood, Statcast’s new batting stance metrics show some developments that make De La Cruz worthy of a closer look. He’s moved back off the plate and opened up his stance, not only from the left side — as MLB.com’s Mike Petriello pointed out last week — but also from the right:

Below are a couple of screenshots. Even with the Great American Ballpark’s camera angle apparently having changed (more on-center, hooray!), you can get the idea. Last year is on the left, and this season is on the right.

The changes appear to be working, particularly in shoring up De La Cruz’s quality of contact when he’s batting right-handed:

De La Cruz is swinging harder than ever from the right side, getting to his fast swing with more than double last year’s frequency, with his squared-up rate more than doubling and his blast rate nearly tripling; as you can see, he’s improved those rates from the left side as well. He’s just a career .206/.274/.312 with a 58 wRC+ against lefties so far, and 2-for-15 this year, but his average exit velo against them has improved from 87.1 mph to 98.2 mph, his launch angle from three degrees to 17 degrees, and his barrel rate from 3.1% to 10%; his xSLG in that split has more than doubled, from .246 to .546. We’re only talking about 10 batted ball events, nowhere near enough to consider these numbers stable, but in less than two weeks of work, he’s already registered seven hard-hit balls from that side, compared to 43 all of last season. He just doesn’t have much to show for it yet.

Those contact numbers currently qualify as small sample theater stuff, but the fact that they’re rooted in underlying changes makes them worth keeping an eye on, not that De La Cruz is ever going to slip far below anyone’s radar. But even if De La Cruz’s quality of contact holds, and if — when — the hits start falling in for him, the rest of the Reds will have to be a whole lot better at the plate for this team to look respectable. Then again, things could hardly get much worse for Cincinnati’s offense. Better health should help, and not only with regards to hitters Stephenson, McLain, and Hays; Abbott is making his way back from a rotator cuff strain, while Díaz, who is also working on some mechanical adjustments that the team hopes will improve his control, is recovering from his hamstring strain. For as bad as the Reds have been, they’re still just three games out of first place in what should be a winnable division.

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