Things we’ve learned through the NHL’s first month of the season

With the NHL season having opened in North America on Oct. 8, we are now one month into the meat of it, which is enough time to make some broad observations.

Although the true measure of pressure can be taken at the one-quarter mark, every team is through at least 11 games, and some leaders have begun to take shape. By points percentage, the Pacific has a couple of expected contenders on top, while the Edmonton Oilers are chasing a bit again. In the Central, the Winnipeg Jets are scorching and creating separation between them and expected challengers from Dallas and Colorado. The Metro has the usual cast on top, with the predictable resurgent New Jersey Devils in the mix, and the Atlantic Division is led by the defending Stanley Cup champions and followed by a whole lot of noise.

That’s where we’ll start our early-season observations, with a look at how one team in the Metropolitan Division is shaking things up out east.

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Washington is helping make the Atlantic an even more fascinating division

Qualifying for last season’s playoffs by the slimmest of margins (a tiebreaker), the Washington Capitals seemed to be on the way out, fading with an aging roster along with the Pittsburgh Penguins. Three points separated those long-time divisional rivals in 2024, and some projected both Pittsburgh and Washington to keep tumbling.

So far that has been true for the Penguins, but the Capitals have been one of the better early-season stories this season. With a 9-3-0 record and tied for first in the Metropolitan Division, the Caps have Alex Ovechkin with eight goals in 12 games pacing toward toppling the all-time record this season, Dylan Strome among the league points leaders with 19 in 12 games, and the Connor McMichael-Tom Wilson duo combining for 14 goals on a line, with reclamation project Pierre-Luc Dubois between them. Logan Thompson might possibly be playing his way into the Canadian goalie conversation for the 4 Nations Face-Off tournament. Meantime, defencemen Jakob Chychrun and Matt Roy have missed time to injuries.

Washington’s surge back up the Metro is making things much tighter and more urgent in the Eastern Conference’s other division. If the Caps had continued to fall back, two wild-card spots might have been available to the Atlantic and opened up a clearer path for one of Detroit, Ottawa or Buffalo to take the step they sorely need. Without that, those rebuilders will have to topple one of the Big Four (Tampa Bay, Toronto, Boston, Florida) ahead of them.

And early on, at least, the possibility exists that some turnover could come to the Atlantic. As of Thursday, the Boston Bruins sit on the outside of a playoff spot, with Detroit holding the second wild-card slot by way of points percentage (.542). Even the Senators have a better points percentage than the Bruins. The Sabres are nipping at Boston’s heels and have a goal differential of minus-2 that is 10 better than the Bruins’ minus-12.

There is caution for all of the bubble teams, however. Boston’s coach may be on the hot seat, as the team leads the league in penalties and struggles to score at five-on-five. Buffalo and Ottawa are still struggling to find consistency, Detroit is struggling to find offence, while Montreal is showing through its lack of defence that it’s still probably a step or two behind.

Tampa Bay is slightly ahead of this group in points, though actually behind the Red Wings in points percentage. The Lightning have lost three in a row and have the second-lowest expected goals rate in the division, propped up partially by a high shooting percentage.

Kirill Kaprizov‘s price goes up by the day

Winnipeg may be the top story in the Central Division, but don’t discount the Wild. Until their loss Tuesday against Los Angeles, they were the only team left along with Winnipeg that had lost only a single game in regulation.

Long stuck in the league’s mushy middle, with seven playoff appearances in the past nine seasons but zero series wins, there’s optimism that the Wild could be setting up to turn a corner. At the centre of that outlook is Kaprizov, who is third in league scoring and first in primary assists. If this continues, he could be in a conversation to win his first league award since the Calder in 2021.

Anticipation had been building toward Kaprizov’s arrival, and when he finally did come to the NHL as a 23-year-old in the pandemic-shortened 2020-21 season, it was obvious that much of the Wild’s future hopes hinged on him delivering as a breakout star. And even without the hardware he has done just that, scoring goals at the fourth-best rate per game since entering the league.

Now, this stardom may not have converted to playoff success yet — and the Wild did miss out on the dance entirely last season — but an interesting young core has been developing around Kaprizov.

Brock Faber, a strong Calder candidate last season and one of the most leaned-upon blueliners in the league (fifth in ice time at 25:25), is signed through 2033 at $8.5 million. Matt Boldy, a first-time 30-goal scorer at 21 years old, is signed through 2030 at $7 million. The team had been searching for centres for years and now seems to have two of them — Joel Eriksson Ek, signed through 2029 at $5.25 million, and Marco Rossi, an important player to watch in the 1C spot this season running along at nearly a point per game and up for contract renewal.

In all, eight skaters are signed through at least the 2027-28 season in Minnesota, and GM Bill Guerin has been able to build this up under a punitive, self-imposed cap penalty since 2021, with $14.747 million of this season’s cap dedicated to the buyouts of Ryan Suter and Zach Parise.

Next year, that penalty falls to just $1.66 million and finally expires after 2027-28.

In the meantime, the NHL’s upper limit is also anticipated to keep rising, making this potentially perfect timing for the Wild to keep their own players and strike where they can on the open market. Kaprizov still has one season after this remaining on his $9-million contract, but given he’s eligible to sign an extension as early as July 1, there’s a big conversation to have on what he wants to do, and what it will take to keep him in Minnesota.

“I don’t look at Kaprizov as, well, He doesn’t have a trophy or he doesn’t have 120 points in a season, I look at what that team looks like if he’s not there and how important he is to that team and organization,” Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman said on this week’s 32 Thoughts: The Podcast. “When I say that I think he’s going to be in the Matthews-Draisaitl range, I believe that, if he wants to be.”

Before this season even began, Wild owner Craig Leipold acknowledged that the positivity around an opening window to spend and compete centred on Kaprizov and that the team would do everything in its power to keep him. It’s the only one that could offer him eight years.

“I will tell you nobody will offer more money than us, or longer. So, all we have to do is prove to him that we want to win,” he said.

Auston Matthews’ number is $13.25 million, Leon Draisaitl’s $14 million. Kaprizov will be up for an extension at the same time as Connor McDavid, who is expected to reset a market-high. In the meantime, his price is going up by the day and the Wild are showing that they might be able to compete this season. It’s a big year for all involved and the early returns are overwhelmingly positive.

Colorado might be this year’s Edmonton

Sixth in the Central Division, with three- and four-game losing streaks already behind them, a few factors have been at play in Colorado, led by the goaltending being an utter disaster. The team’s expected goals against rate at five-on-five is seventh in the NHL, but it’s 27th in actual goals against in that situation. At .835, the Avalanche have the league’s worst all-around team save percentage. And while Justus Annunen has been the best of the bunch, he’s allowed three goals or more in his past three starts.

Injuries are also a big story here, with Artturi Lehkonen, Devon Toews, Miles Wood and Jonathan Drouin all missing time. Cale Makar was pulled Tuesday, but may be fine. There’s still no indication of when (or if) Gabriel Landeskog may be back, but Valeri Nichushkin is set to return to the lineup on Nov. 15. It’s been a streaky start for the Avs — they have a five-game winning streak, too — but you can bet on their talent pulling through. Nathan MacKinnon and Makar are 1-2 in league scoring, though both are minus players to date.

Remember last year’s Edmonton Oilers, who began 3-9-1.

Coaches on the hot seat?

We are far enough along that the heat is being turned up in a few places, and the coaches in charge of the bench are feeling it. How many of them are truly on the hot seat though? We have a few who legitimately could be, and a few others who might be in normal conditions.

Boston Bruins and Jim Montgomery: A 3-2-0 start was fine enough, but the three-game losing streak that followed was the first sign that Boston’s head coach could be in trouble. An OT win against Toronto quelled that talk for a few days, but it came back after a shutout loss to Philadelphia and an 8-2 drubbing by Carolina. Last weekend’s back-to-back shutout wins made the situation appear less urgent once more, and then Tuesday’s 4-0 loss to Toronto saw it boil up again.

The fact is that Boston is the NHL’s most penalized team, is 27th in five-on-five goals, 21st in expected goals percentage, and both special teams units are in the bottom-third of the league. A home game to Calgary on Thursday is up next and then a huge divisional game against Ottawa at home on Saturday will be another pressure point. By American Thanksgiving, we’ll have a far clearer picture of what’s happening in Boston.

Nashville Predators and Andrew Brunette: After acquiring two 40-goal scorers in last summer’s free agent market, the Predators are 29th in goals per game. The upside, perhaps, is that the team’s shooting percentage is a lowly 7.28, with Steven Stamkos at 8.6 (three goals) and Jonathan Marchessault at 4.9 (two goals). They’re due, right? Juuse Saros isn’t at a Vezina level, but is eight in goals saved above expected.

Frustration is clearly boiling, though, and when GM Barry Trotz went on local radio this week, he said “If we don’t get it going, then I’m going to start our rebuild plan a little bit.” Oof. Today, Nashville is last in the league by points and points percentage, with the second-worst goal differential in the Western Conference. The Preds were four points out of a playoff spot on Nov. 1 (Friedman’s early-season playoff chance cut-off stat) and are on the road for most of the next three weeks. But also remember that, late last season, this team started an eight-game winning streak on the road and carried an 18-game point streak that delivered it back into the playoffs and off the sellers’ market. It’s not too late yet, but when the GM talks about rebuilding a team like this, the coach has to be feeling the heat.

Detroit Red Wings and Derek Lalonde: This is why getting hyped up one way or another so early in the season is dangerous. Go back one week, and the Red Wings were 4-5-1, tied for last in the division with three others, and had followed a three-game winning streak with a three-game losing streak. One of the worst offensive teams at the time, perhaps Lalonde was creeping toward danger early in his third season, with so much on the line. But two wins in a row since — including a huge one over Buffalo — has them third in the Atlantic by points percentage. The pressure is back off a bit, for now.

Montreal Canadiens and Martin St. Louis: The team defence has been pretty awful, the losses mounting, and they still occupy last place in the Atlantic Division, the same place they finished in Martin St. Louis’ first two years behind the bench. Yes, this is still a young team rebuilding and, yes, the Canadiens are still regarded as being a little behind Ottawa, Buffalo and Detroit in that process. But, eventually, progress will need to be made here. St. Louis was freshly extended to a multi-year contract this past summer and so it would be hard to believe the team moving off him so soon. Still, questions about St. Louis’ tenure were being asked of our Eric Engels, who agreed that while the coach’s seat isn’t hot, the players need to start being held more accountable.

Penguins have more than a goalie problem

It’s easy to point the finger at Tristan Jarry and, sure, he hasn’t been great. When you’re a team’s No. 1 goalie making $5.375 million on a contract signed just one year ago, and you start out with an .836 save percentage and a GAA ballooning over 5.00, it’s fair to face some criticism.

But Pittsburgh’s issues run much deeper than that surface-level takeaway. Defence and depth have been obvious pain points. Erik Karlsson leads the league in giveaways and isn’t making up for it with his offence — he has two primary assists. Marcus Pettersson has been on the ice for a league-leading 19 goals against at five-on-five. As a team, the Penguins are 30th in shots allowed per game and in high-danger chances allowed per 60 minutes at five-on-five.

Not even Sidney Crosby can save these Penguins, nor can a throwback start by Evgeni Malkin, which has now been wasted.

Interestingly, though, the Penguins do still have something of an interesting situation in net. Joel Blomqvist (.909) and Alex Nedeljkovic (.900) have both been statistically better than Jarry — Blomqvist is the only one of the bunch with a positive goals saved above expected (2.2). He’s also the only one of the three who is exempt from waivers.

Why is that important? Jarry was sent to the AHL for a conditioning loan on Oct. 26, and that expires on Saturday. In three games on the farm, he’s a perfect 3-0 with a 1.95 GAA and .937 save percentage so, it seems, he’s done what’s needed to get back up.

Meantime, Nedeljkovic has started each of the past three Penguins games and shown well in each, while Blomqvist hasn’t played since Oct. 29 and allowed four goals in each of his past three starts.

In some situations, we might have included Mike Sullivan on the coaches’ hot seat, but with how embedded he is in the organization — and how sought after he’d become if let go — that seems a long shot.

Martin Necas is proving to everyone he’s worth the money and minutes

It wouldn’t have been at all shocking if Martin Necas was wearing a different jersey this season. An RFA last summer, Necas was seeking a bigger role but it wasn’t so easily forthcoming in Carolina. He was top-of-mind in trade boards and, with the Canes also having to figure out a new contract for Seth Jarvis, wasn’t even the most pressing deal to resolve.

“I think Carolina thought Necas was going to get dealt,” Friedman said Wednesday.

After Jake Guentzel left as a UFA, the Canes needed Necas a little more and his expired contract gave him leverage — who would give up prime assets for a player who could leave in two years, and which teams had the cap space to do it? Rather than drag it out, or sell him for less than they believed he was worth, Carolina extended Necas for two years with a $6.5-million cap hit. Now, it was up to the player to prove he was worth the role he was demanding, and set himself up for a bigger payday down the line.

This season, it’s been perfect. Necas has seven goals and 20 points in 11 games, placing him among the top scorers in the league. His average ice time is up marginally, but has risen by nearly two full minutes per game on the power play — Necas is tied with Andrei Svechnikov for the team lead. Eight of his 20 points have come on the man advantage, which puts him in a tie for third league-wide.

“He and Brind’Amour, they had a real come-to-Jesus meeting. Brind’Amour said, ‘You want more time, I have to be able to trust you.’ And he said, ‘I’ll prove that you can trust me.’ And he did,” Friedman said on The FAN Hockey Show. “Both guys have lived up to their end of the bargain. He’s playing more the way Brind’Amour demands, and Brind’Amour’s saying, ‘OK, you get to play more.’”

Some had Carolina pegged as a potential fallback team this season, yet here it is once again leading the league in corsi for percentage at five-on-five, shots for percentage, and third in goals percentage.

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