What are the expectations for Canada’s five playoff teams?
As the Stanley Cup Playoffs near, Justin Bourne takes stock of the five Canadian NHL teams in a post-season position and sets the table for what their expectations will be.
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If you toggled the calendar back to this day four months ago, roughly mid-December, you’d have seen the Montreal Canadiens last place in the East, Ottawa in 11th, with Vancouver and Calgary tied for the second wild card spot in the West. Odds were good two of those four teams would sneak into the post-season, but I don’t think many Canadians – or dare I even say Canadiens? – thought it would be both Ottawa and Montreal.
So here we are, with five Canadian teams in the playoffs, a feat that’s only been equalled or bested twice in the past decade, the COVID year notwithstanding.
When I assess the likelihood of the Stanley Cup coming back to Canada – a roughly five in 16 shot by my very advanced math – I’m struck by just how different the expectations and potential outcomes are for these teams. To say nothing of the vibes.
We’ve got two buckets and two buckets only: “Anything after this is gravy,” and “A first-round exit would be a tragedy.”
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There may be degrees to those blanket statements, so let’s investigate, starting with the second group: “A first-round exit would be a tragedy.”
Last year set the bar for this one, as we know the Oilers came within a game — a goal? — of winning the Stanley Cup. They’re in the primey-prime of the careers of Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid, so they’re expected to strike while iron is exceedingly hot.
One thing though: the Oilers do have a couple caveats that relieve the pressure a tiny bit. One is that they have the very legitimate complication that their team just hasn’t been healthy, so their ability to build something solid and replicable has been challenged. Yes, they expect to get bodies back, but if they get them back just in time for the playoffs, can they really be expected to be at their best?
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There’s also the reality that Draisaitl and almost certainly McDavid are going to be around for years to come, and that they’re going to have other runs at this thing. That’s not to fully take the pressure off this season, as fans certainly have high hopes, but it doesn’t feel like a loss means blowing up what makes the Oilers “The Oilers.”
The Leafs will almost definitely have to battle that feeling of tightness, as they’re fighting for both their individual and team legacies at this point — to say nothing of the future of the roster as they know it. There are stories of great players who turn their focus to “team first hockey,” they get a Cup, and are eventually vindicated for early career shortcomings. Steve Yzerman and Alex Ovechkin come to mind. But if Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander and John Tavares continue to be as dangerous as they are in the regular season, then immediately get shut down in the playoffs, their career accomplishments will likely carry asterisks in the public consciousness.
That in itself is some weight on Toronto’s most-used players.
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Further is that a true post-season failure – as in, another early exit – would almost certainly mean the Leafs would blow up the core, and let Marner and/or Tavares walk. Heck, it could be the end of people above them in the front office too.
After so many frustrations, there are real expectations to take this thing deeper. They’ve got the talent, it seems like they’re going to get a favourable draw, but it can be tough to play free with the Sword of Damocles dangling above your head.
There aren’t many people out there who can claim they saw “Winnipeg Jets, Presidents’ Trophy champions” coming this season, and I think it’s an accomplishment that deserves far greater celebration. If we were European soccer, that would be the title. They’d have already won it all. Which makes so much sense after an 82-game marathon against every single team, but that’s a different conversation for another time.
But like the Leafs, previous post-season stumbles (and all this regular season success) means a “good effort” ain’t going to cut it in the playoffs. The Jets need to win rounds, or their management is going to have to do some real thinking about what has to be done to get over the hump. That could certainly imply turnover along with a real question mark about the core’s ability to win when it matters, which may come to centre on their best player, Connor Hellebuyck.
Still, fans are fired up, their opening matchup will be winnable, and it should be the start of something great. There’s pressure, but the vibes aren’t quite as dark as in Toronto.
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Now, the “Anything after this is gravy” group of teams…
The team is going to say they’re not content with just getting in, and that they have higher aspirations, because the players have to think that way. But zoom way out and you see a team that already accomplished just about everything they could’ve hoped this season.
A change in ownership led to a general vibe shift with the organization, right at the same time their young prospects blossomed into legitimate top-end NHLers. Now with some exciting talents like Jake Sanderson and Tim Stutzle, some grit with Brady Tkachuk and Ridly Greig, and a legitimate number one goalie in Linus Ullmark, it just seems a lot more fun there.
If the Senators were to lose in round one I think ownership, management and fans would view it as a first good step, and something to build on. They’ve got very little to lose, and tons to gain. They can try out a few things, throw caution to the wind, and if that style is contrasted directly against the Leafs’ potentially “tight” comportment in round one, Ottawa could see great results.
Montreal Canadiens
The rallying cry for the Canadiens has come from a man I have a ton of respect for in Stephane Robidas, who was heard on camera saying to the team during their playoff push “Why not us, why not now?”
Since hardly anybody expected Montreal to pull itself out of the cellar this quickly, it feels like another group that has nothing to lose, which is exciting when you have talents like Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, and Juraj Slafkovsky really coming into their own, to say nothing of the emergence of Lane Hutson and the great goaltending of Sam Montembeault. Sprinkle a little Ivan Demidov into the potion, and who knows just what this very dynamic group, which is peppered with steady vets, will do out there?
All we know is that on their journey to Cup contention, getting here was viewed as a “first step” and the season is already a success regardless of the outcome in round one.
But when you play against a team that has nothing to lose, boy, that’s a pretty terrifying prospect for anyone, particularly those top teams that have so much at stake.
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So much has to come together at the right time for teams to have post-season success. Health is crucial, you need some good breaks, solid goaltending, and you need some positive energy.
Teams like the Oilers, Leafs, and Jets can find their positive energy as they start to have playoff success, meaning you can expect them to gain strength the deeper they go. As questions fall off, and they get comfortable in those big games, their deeper rosters should carry them further.
But for Montreal and Ottawa, it’s very possible the flash-bang of excitement and freedom could, out of the gates, present some very real problems for some very good opponents. They can absolutely win rounds, and have a blast doing it.
And while it’s impossible to predict who will come out on top, it’s not hard to see that the real winner should be Canadian fans, who are almost getting desperate enough to root for other Canadian cities than their own as our national drought drags on.
