What Maple Leafs’ priorities should be heading toward the trade deadline 

TORONTO — It’s the final of the men’s 100m dash at the Olympics, and will you look at that, there’s a surprise entry. It’s me, Justin Bourne, about to race Noah Lyles and Andre de Grasse and, sure, Usain Bolt in his prime is there too. They’re going to give the winner a million bucks.

We all take our positions before the gun to start the race, and …

I gotta tell ya: You’re not going to be getting my max effort in this scenario. There’s no way I’m trying to run the 100m as fast as I can because I am going to get absolutely obliterated, regardless, so what’s the point pulling all the strings in my hams? 

But if it’s a race against a bunch of random dudes my age, and the stakes are the same, I’m training for that race. I’m stretching, I’m hiring a coach, I’m preparing myself as best I possibly can, because I might be able to win that one. 

I use this obscure hypothetical to make an obvious point: Who you’re up against matters, a lot. Among my least favourite hockey playoff axioms is, “It doesn’t matter who we play, you’ve gotta … ” Maybe that finishes with “beat the best to be the best” or “win four rounds anyway” or whatever else, but the point remains equally devoid of logic, as who you play matters a ton (and some of that is within your control).

The 2019 Boston Bruins went to the Cup Final after playing the seventh-seeded Toronto Maple Leafs, then the fourth-seeded Blue Jackets, then the sevent-seeded Carolina Hurricanes before losing to the St. Louis Blues in the final. The 2006 Hurricanes won a Cup facing teams ranked seventh, third, fourth and eighth. The 1999 Dallas Stars played teams ranked seventh, sixth, fourth and seventh.  

It happens going the hard route too (I see you, Los Angeles Kings), but there’s a reason they’re call “upsets.” Those underdog wins are rare. 

If you’re the Toronto Maple Leafs starting at the trade deadline, holy smokes, is this a winnable race. And nothing should provide them more incentive to stock up, to go in, and to prepare than a simple look around.  

Pre-pandemic, the Tampa Bay Lightning had a season with 128 points. Three years ago, the Florida Panthers had 122 points. Two years ago, the Boston Bruins had 135 points. Last year, Florida won the division with 110 points and, suddenly, this year, they’re on pace for an even 100, with Tampa on pace for 99. The Bruins might not make the playoffs. 

As of this writing, if you win the Atlantic, you’d draw the Detroit Red Wings. Finish second, and you draw either Tampa Bay or Florida. 

The Leafs, on pace for 103 points, have no excuse to tread lightly and cross their fingers heading into playoffs, as those Florida teams are certainly going to spend to get better in the coming weeks. Everyone is going to improve 5 per cent, so they need to go to 10. 

So, let’s take a look at what their priorities may be, and where I can see it all going: 

There’s been so much fuss about the Leafs at the deadline and getting a top-end centre, and that would of course be a massive help. But I can’t say that watching Canada at the 4 Nations Face-Off (and the American team, for that matter) didn’t make remind me of the value of a “Thank god that guy is on the ice” D-man. The Leafs have Chris Tanev, but he’s not quite what I’m talking about. 

Top player of interest: Colton Parayko  

Yes, Parayko is 31 and has five years left on his deal after this one. But for this year, and at least for the next couple, he’s a tremendous defender who can also skate and shoot the puck. He’s six-foot-six and 230 pounds, he’s got 12 goals on the season after 10 last year, and he makes just $6.5 million.  

He’d cost a lot to get, but he would 100 per cent change what the Leafs are in an instant. Here’s a Cup contending D-corps: 

Rielly-Parayko 

McCabe-Tanev 

Benoit-OEL 

The Blues appear to be selling, and Parayko’s age might not line up with their next contention window.  

Now, I recognize how easy it is to sit here and write out a wishlist, while reality gets in the way of attaining many of the players a team may want, from salary-cap issues, to a lack of assets or, more likely, to teams simply valuing their own guys a ton. This one may be fantasy, but if you don’t set lofty goals, you’ve got no chance to hit the highest highs. 

Top player in trouble: Max Domi 

Domi can dish, he can skate with good players, and he can go up and down the lineup. But Toronto looks to have about $1.3 million in deadline cap space and they want to add, and so someone’s money likely has to go out the door. Domi doesn’t defend or play physical enough to be impactful in the bottom six in playoffs, and the Leafs have six better offensive forwards with plans to add more. He makes $3.75 million per year for this year and the next three, and he’s moving deeper into his 30s. He can be dealt, as he has a modified no-trade clause. His name will come up as an option to be moved.  

Top team to pilfer: Unfortunately, it’s the Boston Bruins 

I say “unfortunately” because is Boston really going to trade good players to the Leafs? Seems unlikely if it has other options. But some of the rumoured-to-be-available names from the Bruins (if they lose enough to be sellers) are exactly what the Leafs could use. Trent Frederic plays hard and can shoot it in the net, Charlie Coyle plays centre and can chip in both ways, and Brandon Carlo is a big lanky D who can defend.  

Top concern: Fans being sold “internal fixes” to roster holes 

GM Brad Treliving isn’t overly well-known for large in-season deals (I believe acquiring Tyler Toffoli is his biggest), though his reputation has him “in on everything.” The Leafs have a few guys who haven’t been healthy enough to contribute this season, and you can already hear the March 8 press conference about how Calle Jarnkrok is a deadline add, and so is Jani Hakanpaa, and maybe Connor Dewar is too. The Leafs don’t need fringe help, which everyone is going to get. They need another needle mover.  

What I expect will happen:  

One medium-to-big name comes in, like Brock Nelson, or Yanni Gourde, or Scott Laughton, while they bring in a depth D-man to shore up the back-end.  

In this scenario (player-dependent), the team would be better, probably the same amount better as the teams around them. That leaves them with a fighting chance, rather than an advantage. And with that, I suppose they could then start talking about how Calle Jarnkrok is an upgrade, etc.  

As much as I’d love for them to land Parayko, or Dylan Cozens, or do to something insane like find a way to get Mikko Rantanen with crazy retention, it’s hard to see it happening. The salary cap is going up, but things are still tight, and their asset list is pretty short. (I can’t shake the “But, boy, Vegas always seems to find a way” voice in the back of my head.)  

The mandate for the front office is clear, thanks to the soft division I mentioned off the top. They’re not surrounded by Olympic-level sprinters for once, so get the best player or two they can — because they have a legitimate chance to outrun this somewhat-flawed group around them.  

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