What recent trades for top-four defencemen tell us about 2025 market

A slew of considerations come into play when contemplating the cost of a top 4 defenceman who can help your playoff push. And if you examine the blue-line moves made at the past couple of NHL trade deadlines, you can get a bit of a blueprint for various types of transactions.

One thing we can say for sure: teams will always be on the hunt for rearguards at this time of year. The playoffs are brutal on everyone, but the back end is extra vulnerable to attrition when the intensity kicks up and forwards are flying in to wallop you every second night for — best-case scenario — a two-month stretch.

Last season, the Calgary Flames held a lot of the cards because they had not one, but two pending-UFA blue-liners on the market in Noah Hanifin and Chris Tanev. The latter is a good example of a player who didn’t return a first-round pick because Calgary preferred a prospect over pure futures. Essentially — with Tanev routed through New Jersey for double salary retention — the Flames pocketed a second-rounder and prospect Artem Grushnikov, a 21-year-old currently in the AHL who was a second-round selection by the Stars in 2021.

The Flames did recoup a first-rounder from Vegas for Hanifin while retaining 50 per cent of the defenceman’s salary for the season. (Hanifin, of course, wound up inking an extension to stay in Vegas).

We also had a good old-fashioned hockey trade last year when Colorado shipped defenceman Bowen Byram to Buffalo for centre Casey Mittelstadt. It’s safe to say that one-for-one of relatively young players was an outlier in terms of the deals you expect to see at this time of year, though Byram’s name is going to come up again before the end of this article.

Another pending UFA D-man who fetched a first last year was Sean Walker, who went to the Avs from Philly. No salary was retained, but Colorado cleared Ryan Johansen off its books in the transaction.

Essentially, a rental with some form of salary relief is going to cost you a first-round pick. If you’re talking about a defenceman with term, be prepared to cough up more.

When the Oilers pried Mattias Ekholm out of Nashville two years ago — which meant getting him for three playoff runs — Edmonton gave up a first-round pick and, in forward Reid Schaefer, a prospect who’d been picked in Round 1 the summer prior. Again, no salary was retained by Nashville, but the Oilers were able to move Tyson Barrie’s contract off the books.

2023 was an interesting year because we actually saw three young defencemen with some form of team control (multiple years to go on a contract or RFA status upon expiry) traded ahead of the deadline. Ottawa sent Arizona a first and two seconds to get Jakob Chychrun, while the Canucks sent a first and second to Detroit for Filip Hronek. The Washington Capitals also shipped a first-round pick and veteran defenceman Erik Gustafsson to Toronto for Rasmus Sandin.

None of the Caps, Sens or Canucks made the playoffs that year — and, in fact, Vancouver was well outside the post-season picture on deadline day — but they seized what they felt was an opportunity to help their team long-term.

Could anything like that be in play this year?

What we can say with some certainty is that there’s a dearth of pure rentals available when it comes to guys who are clear top 4 D-men. There are, however, some interesting names floating when it comes to players with term. Additionally, there are a couple of veterans with strong resumes who could become intriguing adds with significant salary retention.

Let’s have a look at some of the options.

Pending-UFA rentals

Ivan Provorov, Columbus Blue Jackets

At the start of the year, Provorov looked like the most obvious top 4 rental of the 2024-25 campaign. Nobody expected Columbus to compete hard for a playoff spot, and moving Provorov before he hits the open market seemed like a slam dunk.

Not so fast.

The Jackets presently hold down a wild card spot and Provorov is playing more than everybody on the team except marathon man Zach Werenski. Does GM Don Waddell want to hurt his club by moving a player coach Dean Evason depends that much on in the heat of a playoff chase?

One workaround might be flipping Provorov, not for futures, but for a player who can help now. There’s also some possibility the team and player come together on an extension in the next week.

If he does come off the market, other GMs in sell mode will be gleefully rubbing their hands together, thinking about how the price for their guy just went up.

Ryan Lindgren, New York Rangers

Again, this is not an uncomplicated situation. First and foremost, the Rangers obviously expected to be well inside the playoff picture at the deadline as opposed to fighting for their post-season lives.

The team also announced this week that Adam Fox is headed for injured reserve, so the Blueshirts are now without their top D-man for a stretch of time. If they’re committed to pushing for the playoffs, it’s tough to imagine them moving the 27-year-old Lindgren.

That said, maybe something happens in the next few games that convinces GM Chris Drury this simply isn’t New York’s year, and he decides to punt. Hardnosed doesn’t begin to explain Lindgren’s approach, and you can bet — despite being a whipping boy in the analytics community — that playoff-bound clubs would greatly value what the tough and experienced Lindgren brings.

Big-ticket veterans on bad teams

Seth Jones, Chicago Blackhawks

While we’ve wondered about Jones’s future in Chicago at times before, it became a full-blown story — driven by the player — after the 4 Nations Face-Off break. Essentially, Jones wants out. He holds a full no-move clause and carries a cap hit of $9.5 million for three seasons after this campaign.

This won’t be easy.

Still, we’re talking about a six-foot-four, right-shot defenceman who only turned 30 in October. Jones is miscast as a No. 1, but put him on your second pair and he becomes a lot more appealing, especially if he can help one of your existing lefty defencemen get back on his natural side.

It goes without saying, Chicago, a third party, or both, need to swallow some salary to make this work for any team. Jones has ties to Texas and Colorado, so the Stars and Avs — both the kind of winning teams he’d like to play for — are often cited as possible fits. And should we be keeping an eye on both the Panthers and Lightning in Florida?

Erik Karlsson, Pittsburgh Penguins

The past few years have got to be really weighing on Karlsson. He left San Jose — where, recall, he recorded the first 100-point season by a defenceman we’ve seen in 30 years in 2022-23 — just in time to join Pittsburgh for its descent. There just doesn’t seem to be a future for him with the Pens.

San Jose is already retaining a 13 per cent portion of Karlsson’s salary and he’s got two more years after this one on a deal that carries a $10-million hit. This is tough because it feels like Pittsburgh would have to eat half that deal to make him a $5-million player before teams might perk up.

For what it’s worth, the 34-year-old hasn’t missed a game dating back to the start of 2022-23.

Rasmus Ristolainen, Philadelphia Flyers

With a cap hit of $5.1 million, the big Finn isn’t carrying the same heavy dollars as Jones or Karlsson. Still, it’s a sizable ticket that runs through 2026-27 and would surely require some retention.

In a sense, Ristolainen’s appeal is the light version of what you’d be hoping to get from Jones. He’s huge and he’s a right shot, so even if he’s an imperfect player, there’s going to be some appeal.

Pending-RFA

Bowen Byram, Buffalo Sabres

We all sat up and took notice when the one-for-one between Buffalo and Colorado went down at this time last year, as Byram went to the Sabres for centre Casey Mittelstadt. Flash forward 12 months and both players are being mentioned as trade candidates again.

To be fair, we had questions from the start about the fit in Buffalo for Byram, if only because the team already had left-shot defencemen — and first-overall picks — Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Power ahead of him on the depth chart. Now, the Sabres have hit a pressure point where they have to ink Byram or move on.

This most definitely feels like a move where, if it happens, it will be for a player who can help Buffalo now at another position or even on the right side of the defence.

Defenceman with modest term

Mario Ferraro, San Jose Sharks

The Sharks are likely uninterested in being completely awful again next year, so it might be a year too early to trade a quality player who can hit the open market in 2026. You’d have to really make it worth San Jose’s time to deal Ferraro, who’s averaged over 21 minutes per night in a six-year NHL career and carries a cap hit of $3.25 million. He’s not big, but he’s in the fight every night and moves the puck well. San Jose has used all three of its retention spots, but if you could get a broker to swallow even 15 per cent of Ferraro’s money, you’d have him on a very sweet deal for two playoff runs.

Wild Card

Colton Parayko, St. Louis Blues

There’s a lot of speculation surrounding the Blues right now and the likes of Parayko, Brayden Schenn and Jordan Binnington. When you’re talking about names like that, you’ll have to come up with something significant to make GM Doug Armstrong bite.

Parayko has three more seasons after this one on a cap hit that carries an AAV of $6.5 million. He’s also got a no-trade clause. The 31-year-old’s appeal is that he’s a huge body with loads of experience, including his recent time with Canada at the 4 Nations.

This is a case where both the player and the GM must be moved to act. And if you’re going to sell the latter on a trade, it would likely take one of the biggest packages we’ve seen for a blue-liner in recent years.

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