What recent trades of top-six centres tell us about the market

Looking for a top-six centre at the trade deadline? It’ll cost you. The demand for NHL centres never really stops, and come springtime the price tends to go up. While many contenders target depth at this time of year, the idea that we could see some top-six centremen on the move before March 7 brings plenty of intrigue to a trade season that’s already brought a few blockbusters.

The promise of salary-cap growth on the horizon has expanded the trade market, too, with rentals no longer the sole focus. Teams are looking to buy.

So, who might be available? And what can we learn from recent trades involving top-six centremen about the going rate?

The top takeaway from looking at some of the more recent trades is that creativity is key in determining how, exactly, the price is determined — and paid. We’ve seen a bit of everything, from salary retention and third-party helpers and packages of picks and prospects as deal-sweeteners, to the more stripped-down transactions as teams trade high and low for fresh starts benefitting both franchises.

Here’s a collection of lessons learned from some of the more notable recent trades headlined by top-six centres and what they can tell us about the market, as well as a few names to watch in the days leading up to the deadline.

A first-round pick is a good place to start

In February 2024, the Winnipeg Jets handed over their 2024 first-round pick and a conditional 2027 third-rounder to the Montreal Canadiens to land rental centre Sean Monahan, who’d revived his game. Interestingly, this was the second time Monahan had earned Montreal a first-round pick via trade — the Flames included a conditional 2025 first-rounder in the August 2022 salary-shedding transaction that saw Monahan (and his $6.375-million AAV at the time) land in Montreal.

As Monahan landed in Winnipeg, Calgary earned quite a haul from the Vancouver Canucks for Elias Lindholm, another true rental. The Flames got Vancouver’s 2024 first-round pick and conditional 2024 fourth-rounder as well as winger Andrei Kuzmenko and two prospects.

Earlier this year, we saw Mikael Granlund — a player who’s listed as both a centre and winger — dealt to Dallas. Granlund was one of two players sent from the San Jose Sharks to the Stars, alongside defenceman Cody Ceci. (Dallas also sent a third-rounder to San Jose in this deal; no salary was retained.) Granlund has been moved a lot the last few seasons, and although he hasn’t always been the headliner, his presence in these deals makes for an interesting case study in market value for a middle-six centre capable of top-six time. Before landing in Dallas, he’d been part of the blockbuster that sent Erik Karlsson to Pittsburgh for a package of players and picks. Granlund had been a deadline acquisition by the Penguins before that, landing in Pittsburgh from Nashville in exchange for a second-round pick. This season’s deal to Dallas represents his highest trade value in terms of draft capital.

Compare those returns to a centreman who’s more suited to a third-line role, and you’re looking at a return involving a second-round pick — for example, last March’s deal that sent Alex Wennberg to the Rangers for a second- and fourth-round pick, with Seattle also retaining half his salary.

All five centres mentioned above were true rentals as pending UFAs, but this year has already shown us one big-name centreman being moved along with their big-money, big-term deals.

Term will cost you

One day before Granlund and Ceci were traded to Dallas, the New York Rangers and Vancouver Canucks pulled off a five-player, six-piece trade that saw the clubs swap top-six centres J.T. Miller and Filip Chytil, with Vancouver also sending a pair of prospects to New York for a return that included a first-round pick (top-13 protected) in 2025. This was a sell-low deal for Vancouver, but still got it a pretty good haul considering Miller’s dismal stats this season and the Canucks’ need to shake things up and create cap space.

Sometimes the cost is to the buyer, securing salary-cap certainty at the right price; sometimes it’s the seller who’s footing the bill in a space-saving deal. And, sometimes, it’s both. Last year’s trade between the San Jose Sharks and Vegas Golden Knights is a great example of a trade involving term that benefited both sides.

Not all term is good term, but in the case of Tomas Hertl being acquired by Vegas last March in just his second season of an eight-year, $65.1-million contract, it was a big plus for the club in the desert to land some salary-cap certainty down the middle. It was also pretty rare to see such a big-name player, with so many years still on his contract, move at the deadline — trading players so early in big-money deals doesn’t happen often, and when it does, it’s typically saved for summertime.

The Hertl-to-Vegas deal, while an exception to many rules, is also a strong example of what teams can expect to pay for top talent and cost certainty — Vegas sent its 2025 first-round pick to San Jose — the going rate for a top-six centre, it seems — as well as the top prospect in its system (Swedish centre David Edstrom, selected in the first round in 2023). A 17 per cent salary retention on Hertl’s remaining seasons sweetened things for Vegas, while a pair of third-round picks accompanying Hertl to the Golden Knights evens things out. It was, by all accounts, a very fair trade that’s a win for both sides, considering Vegas’ win-now mentality and San Jose’s need to get younger.

Considering the number of players with term at various levels of the rumour mill — Brayden Schenn, Dylan Cozens, even perhaps Elias Pettersson — it’ll be interesting to see how that factors into the price on both sides, should deals get done.

One-for-one deals are rare, but they do happen

And two recent examples show how these deals can be equally beneficial for teams and players in need of fresh starts. Take last spring’s transaction between Buffalo and Colorado, for example, which saw the Avalanche acquire centre Casey Mittelstadt in exchange for defenceman Bowen Byram. The deal was lauded by onlookers as a win-win that helped both sides fill a specific need while dealing from a position of strength.

For Colorado, it brought in an immediate, younger and more affordable replacement for Ryan Johansen after he was sent to Philadelphia in a cost-cutting move. For the Sabres, it gave the franchise a third cornerstone rearguard to build around alongside Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Powers.

For both players, it brought a fresh start, and strong chemistry in their new homes — though, with rumours that Mittelstadt could once again be on the trade block after a dip in production, it’ll be interesting to see what he fetches if he’s dealt again a year later.

“Fresh start” was also the key term in last June’s deal that sent an out-of-sync Pierre-Luc Dubois cross-country to the Washington Capitals in exchange for goalie Darcy Kuemper. While not a deadline deal, it’s still worth highlighting to show the creativity involved with measuring players’ worth in accordance with teams’ needs. The prevailing sentiment at the time was surprise that the Kings found a suitor for the disgruntled centreman without having to retain any of his $8.5-million AAV that runs through 2031, and that they filled a key need in net in the process.

The three-player package L.A. sent to Winnipeg for Dubois in 2023 is more indicative of the typical going rate for a top-six centre, but Dubois’ dwindling value required them to seek a different kind of return to wipe the slate clean. This is a deal that’s worked out really well for both sides, considering both Kuemper and Dubois — who looks like a totally different, and totally motivated true 2C with the Capitals — have found a really strong fit.

COULD THESE TOP-SIX CENTREMEN BE ON THE MOVE?

Dylan Cozens, Buffalo Sabres

Cozens enjoyed an offensive breakout in 2022-23, when he registered 31 goals and 68 points in 81 games, but his stats since — 18 goals and 47 points last season, and just 11 goals and 27 points through 55 games this season — indicate a player who could really benefit from a fresh start and a chance to win if he’s to live up to his 2C potential.

Though he’s not your typical deadline target, considering he’s far from a rental, Cozens checks just about every box when it comes to a desirable player to acquire. At 24, the 2019 seventh-overall pick hasn’t yet hit his prime and should continue to pack on muscle to his six-foot-three frame. He’s in only the second season of the seven-year, $49.7-million contract he signed in February 2023, and boasts the kind of offensive upside that could very quickly make his $7.1-million AAV look like a steal, if he can reach it. (And, if he can’t, the rise in the salary cap makes his contract look reasonable, still.) Every single team should be calling Sabres GM Kevyn Adams — and they probably are.

Brayden Schenn, St. Louis Blues

With three more seasons remaining on his eight-year pact with the Blues (there’s a trend of term here on this year’s list of eligible centremen), Schenn is an interesting case. He has all the makings of being a final piece to a team’s championship puzzle — the veteran leadership, the Stanley Cup-winning experience, consistent production, and a little grit — but the biggest question is whether the Blues are actually looking to move him.

The fact he’s still under contract through 2028 at $6.5-million per year is just one of many reasons GM Doug Armstrong would be wise to keep him. Then again, he could fetch a healthy return, should he decide to move on and get younger.

The Maple Leafs do have a history of acquiring other clubs’ captains — or, at least, players who’ve previously worn the captain’s C. Just saying.

Brock Nelson, New York Islanders

He didn’t get much ice time as a role player and fourth-liner with Team USA at the 4 Nations Face-Off, but Nelson is poised to get a lot more time in the spotlight before March 7. Nelson, 33 and suiting up as the second-line centre with the Islanders, is a true rental in the sense that he’s on an expiring contract and can inject an instant dose of secondary scoring and production into a contender’s lineup at a reasonable AAV of $6 million.

Casey Mittelstadt, Colorado Avalanche

Mittelstadt thrived upon landing in Colorado last March, a fresh start proving key to his success slotting into as the Avalanche’s second-line centre behind Nathan MacKinnon. But his numbers have taken a dip of late, and despite signing a three-year extension to stay in Denver last June, it’s worth wondering if the team will try to move him one year later. It’s hard to see it recouping the value it traded away for him, but considering the market for centremen is particularly strong this time of year and Mittelstadt comes with two years of term on a reasonable deal, he could be a candidate for team that believes it can jumpstart his scoring.

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